Nomadsfest Sox Fans

A forum for the old AOL board Sox fans and others.


    Keys to the 2019 White Sox

    Share
    avatar
    Son of Ron
    Disco Demolition Expert

    Posts : 383
    Join date : 2018-10-17

    Keys to the 2019 White Sox

    Post by Son of Ron on Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:12 pm

    In 2018, NOT ONE of OUR White Sox with 200 more plate appearance OPS at 800 or above


    PATHETIC!!!!!


    OUR White Sox could easily improve 20 games if people just hit to their capabilities


    Is it unreasonable to think that the following can get over 800


    Abreau
    Moncada
    Anderson
    Jiminez
    Palka


    Throw in Wellington Castillo if he can find the right pharmacist.


    With a little luck, maybe Abreau has one last 900 in him.  Maybe Jiminez does it as a rookie.  Ron Acuna did.


    And its still possible either Harper or Machado are added to this mix.


    Young players have been known to improve rapidly.  So don't write off OUR 2019 White Sox just yet.  If OUR White Sox can land a Big Fish, then maybe, just maybe you have a 1/3 of the lineup at 900, another 1/3 at 800, and the bottom 1/3 at 700 which would include Adam Engel's being the only piss poor bat carried.  His gold glove caliber defense will make it worth it

    BELIEVE
    avatar
    rmapasad
    Chairman Reinsdorf

    Posts : 2922
    Join date : 2009-04-06
    Location : Northridge, CA

    Re: Keys to the 2019 White Sox

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:06 pm

    OUR White Sox could easily improve 20 games if people just hit to their capabilities
    Is it unreasonable to think that the following can get over 800
    Abreau
    Moncada
    Anderson
    Jiminez
    Palka
    Throw in Wellington Castillo if he can find the right pharmacist.>>



    It may not be unreasonable to think that Jiminez, Abreu and possibly Moncada can be .800+ although Moncada has to drastically cut down K's to do that.  Maybe Anderson could turn into Javier Baez 2018 version.  
    But even if all that happened, it hardly adds up to 20 more wins or even close.   BR had the Sox at 17 wins below average (64 wins) which is very close to their actual 62 wins.   But 10 wins of that deficiency was pitching related and most of it was inferior starting pitching.   Moreover, even if the Sox got better offensively in RF, 1b, 2b, SS and LF all those spots except SS are below average defensively.   Meaning a major offensive improvement in those spots at best will probably wring out another 7-8 wins.  
    avatar
    Son of Ron
    Disco Demolition Expert

    Posts : 383
    Join date : 2018-10-17

    Re: Keys to the 2019 White Sox

    Post by Son of Ron on Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:50 pm

    7-8 LMAO!!!!!!


    NOW YOUR JUST DELIBERATELY DISAGREEING WITH ME


    SUCH A MASS SCALE IMPROVEMENT IS WORTH AT LEAST 125 RUNS


    PLUG THAT INTO PYTHAGREUS AND I GET 14 MORE WINS.  THEN ADD HARPER OR MACHADO


    BOOM, 20 MORE WINS


    AND JUST HOW DID YOU GET 7 OR 8?!?!?!?!  MY GUESS IS YOU FORGOT TO MULTIPLY BY 1.8
    avatar
    Son of Ron
    Disco Demolition Expert

    Posts : 383
    Join date : 2018-10-17

    Re: Keys to the 2019 White Sox

    Post by Son of Ron on Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:48 pm

    Just like I thought.


    Give Abreau and Jiminez a 900OPS over 600 PA each, with Jiminez replacing Garcia and Trayce Thompson and OUR White Sox see a 100 run improvement according to the vintage Bill James runs created formula.


    Despite the bogus claims of a certain someone, this formula has never been debunked or abandoned and is still at least 95% accurate,


    BTW, those 100 runs produced 10 more wins according to another vintage James formula.


    Add a breakout by Moncada and Anderson at 850 and 800 and you jump another 52 runs.  That's 77 wins with last years putrid pitching.  If Giolito improves by a 1/3, and I don't think a 4.08 ERA is asking too much, OUR 2019 White Sox are now a 500 team.


    However, the KARK does admit that its much easier said than done.  Just pointing out that 500 is not some mathematical impossibility like somebody wants to suggest
    avatar
    rmapasad
    Chairman Reinsdorf

    Posts : 2922
    Join date : 2009-04-06
    Location : Northridge, CA

    Re: Keys to the 2019 White Sox

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:41 pm

    No one is saying James' RC is debunked, in fact RC is used in its newly modified form.   Baseball Reference has "Batting Runs" so looking at Cleveland last year v. the Sox

    Brantley OPS 832 - Bat Runs =19.2   v Moncada at -1.9 last year  = 21 runs better
    Encarnacion OPS 810 Bat Runs = 11   v Anderson at - 10             = 21 runs better
    Lindor 871 OPS -   Bat Runs  = 28      versus Abreu at 13             = 15 runs better
    Ramirez 939 OPS  Bat Runs   = 44      versus Garcia at -3          = 47 runs better
    Alonso at738 OPS  Bat Runs   = -2.7   v Davidson at 2.8               =  6 runs worse

                                                                                   NET  98 runs better

    That assumes that Moncada gets an 832 like Brantley, Anderson gets to 810, Abreu gets to 871 (which is possible) and Jiminez gets to 939 (which is pretty far out to expect for a rookie).

    So in your wild ass scenario, yes the Sox get 100 runs better without Machado
    but remember they are still defensively inferior at 2b, LF, RF and 1b so that's where I come up with my 7-8 win estimate from position players.
    avatar
    Son of Ron
    Disco Demolition Expert

    Posts : 383
    Join date : 2018-10-17

    Re: Keys to the 2019 White Sox

    Post by Son of Ron on Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:28 am

    AND YOUR MATH AND LOGIC IS WRONG.


    FIRST YOU ARE DOING IT IN A LINEAR MANNER.  RUNS ARE NOT LINEAR.


    SECOND, YOU ARE IGNORING THE TEAM CONTEXT.  INSTEAD YOU ARE USING PLAYERS NOT EVEN ON THE WHITE SOX FOR SOME BIZARRE REASON.


    THIRD, WHY ARE YOU DEDUCTING DEFENSE WHEN ITS ASSUME DEFENSE WILL STAY THE SAME.  


    FOURTH, SURE IT MIGHT BE CRAZY TO BELIEVE THAT OUR WHITE SOX GO FROM ZERO TO SIX.  BUT SOMETIMES SHIT HAPPENS.  AND IF BY SOME MIRACLE IT DOES HAPPEN, THAT'S A TEAM PUSHING 500.  NOT ONE HOPING TO HIT 70.


    PS, ABREAU AND JIMINEZ GOING 900+ WITH 1200 PA IS WORTH ABOUT 100 RUNS BY ITSELF
    avatar
    rmapasad
    Chairman Reinsdorf

    Posts : 2922
    Join date : 2009-04-06
    Location : Northridge, CA

    Re: Keys to the 2019 White Sox

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:49 pm

    Son of Ron wrote:AND YOUR MATH AND LOGIC IS WRONG.
    FIRST YOU ARE DOING IT IN A LINEAR MANNER.  RUNS ARE NOT LINEAR.
    SECOND, YOU ARE IGNORING THE TEAM CONTEXT.  INSTEAD YOU ARE USING PLAYERS NOT EVEN ON THE WHITE SOX FOR SOME BIZARRE REASON.
    THIRD, WHY ARE YOU DEDUCTING DEFENSE WHEN ITS ASSUME DEFENSE WILL STAY THE SAME.  
    FOURTH, SURE IT MIGHT BE CRAZY TO BELIEVE THAT OUR WHITE SOX GO FROM ZERO TO SIX.  BUT SOMETIMES SHIT HAPPENS.  AND IF BY SOME MIRACLE IT DOES HAPPEN, THAT'S A TEAM PUSHING 500.  NOT ONE HOPING TO HIT 70.
    PS, ABREAU AND JIMINEZ GOING 900+ WITH 1200 PA IS WORTH ABOUT 100 RUNS BY ITSELF

    Saying runs aren't linear means X, Y and Z don't always have the same result depending on when/how they occur.   A HR, followed by 3 BB's and 3 K's = 1 run.  Where 3 BB's, a HR, then 3 K's = 4 runs.  Linear Weights would say the "average" value of a HR, 3 BB's and 3 K's is 2.3 runs.   Over 6000 team AB's per year anamolies even out and Linear Weights usually work.  Which is why w/OBA still uses them 30 years after Palmer introduced the concept. But sometimes they don't work neatly. Shit happens. Doesn't mean we stop predicting runs based on production. You just did too.


    I used the Indian players because in 2018 they produced the kind of OPS's you were espousing for the Sox players - Brantley was a 832 (i.e, what if Moncada was same), Ramirez was 939 (what if Jiminez was same, etc.) 


    As to Abreu and Jiminez both at 900+ that's not 100 runs more than the Sox had last year.   Abreu was 15 runs above average in 2018 with a 798 OPS.  Getting him to 900 adds another 20 runs.   Jose Ramirez had a 939 OPS last year and 44 runs above average versus Avi Garcia at minus 3 to average last year.  So 939 OPS for Jiminez is 47 more runs.  Abreu at 900, Ramirez 939 =  67 more runs.   Coupled with Anderson and Moncada both reaching 800 supplies the added 40 to get the Sox to 100+ more runs. 


    You're right, I shouldn't subtract 2 wins for defense that remains essentially the same as last year.  It's just that better defense would add more wins.
    avatar
    Son of Ron
    Disco Demolition Expert

    Posts : 383
    Join date : 2018-10-17

    Re: Keys to the 2019 White Sox

    Post by Son of Ron on Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:14 pm

    As to Abreu and Jiminez both at 900+ that's not 100 runs more than the Sox had last year.


    ****************


    According to Bill James Runs Created it is.


    Plus your linear weights need to be adjusted every year.  RC doesn't


    Plus Garcia missed about two months, you forgot to factor that in as well.


    Finally, I know how to do math.  I don't need you to correct me.


    PS, let's see if it actually happens first. Good chance neither Abreau or Jiminez spend all 162 games with the White Sox
    avatar
    Son of Ron
    Disco Demolition Expert

    Posts : 383
    Join date : 2018-10-17

    Re: Keys to the 2019 White Sox

    Post by Son of Ron on Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:39 am

    Just checked fan graphs projections.  Or should I say weighted averages because that is a far better description.  anyway


    Only Jiminez and Abreau projected to be above 800 OPS.


    Anderson is under 700, not good.  Neither is Wellington Castillo at 706.  I guess Fangraphs considers the pharmacy closed.


    MonKKKada at 723 which is probably just below average.  Palka at 741 is probably just above.  Ditto Alonso at 738.  However, the average OPS of an everyday player is over 780.



    Our gold glovers, Yolmer and Engel come in at 687 and 618 respectively


    ***********


    If Anderson has another sub 700 year, I would look to move him while his youth will make him marketable
    avatar
    rmapasad
    Chairman Reinsdorf

    Posts : 2922
    Join date : 2009-04-06
    Location : Northridge, CA

    Re: Keys to the 2019 White Sox

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:21 pm

    Just checked fan graphs projections.  Or should I say weighted averages because that is a far better description.  anywayOnly Jiminez and Abreau projected to be above 800 OPS.
    Anderson is under 700, not good.  Neither is Wellington Castillo at 706.  I guess Fangraphs considers the pharmacy closed.

    MonKKKada at 723 which is probably just below average.  Palka at 741 is probably just above.  Ditto Alonso at 738.  However, the average OPS of an everyday player is over 780.

    Our gold glovers, Yolmer and Engel come in at 687 and 618 respectively<



    Yeah, these are "safe projections" based on last year and not much growth anticipated in Anderson, Moncada, Engel, Sanchez, etc.   Those guys should be better, the main question is how much.  
    avatar
    Son of Ron
    Disco Demolition Expert

    Posts : 383
    Join date : 2018-10-17

    Re: Keys to the 2019 White Sox

    Post by Son of Ron on Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:08 pm

    Yeah, these are "safe projections" based on last year and not much growth anticipated in Anderson, Moncada, Engel, Sanchez, etc.   Those guys should be better, the main question is how much. 


    **************


    MOncada needs to get over 800 in a hurry and needs to push, if not exceed 900 as he hits his prime.  Anything less, then its time to admit Sale was traded for the wrong group of prospects.


    Engel bat is what it is.  He plays for the gold glove caliber defense.


    Ditto Sanchez, but he should be north of 700.  Now if he could do the 723, that a decent 2B given his gold glove caliber defense.  However, he not good enough to block Nick Madrigal.  OUR White Sox should just play him at 2b everyday with the hope to flip him at the trade deadline.


    Anderson, all I can say is the person thinking he'd peak at 850 must live in a state where marijuana is legal.  That said, all the tools are there

    Sponsored content

    Re: Keys to the 2019 White Sox

    Post by Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:11 pm