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    More Self Delusion on the way ?

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    rmapasad
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    More Self Delusion on the way ?

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:02 am

    According to MLB.com's Jon Morosi, the White Sox and Phillies are monitoring the Mike Moustakas market.
    It sounds like Moustakas is the fallback plan for each club should Manny Machado sign elsewhere>


    WTF are the Sox thinking if this is the plan ?  Yeah, a 30 year old who has only been 
    a 3 win player twice in his eight year career (3.8 WAR best season) is a "fallback option" 
    for a 26 year old who has been a 6 win player three of the past four seasons.  


    According to BR, Moustakas and Sanchez had the same value last year.  
    According to Fan Graphs Moustakas was about 1/2 win better.  
    So 27 year old Sanchez will be put on the bench (or traded) so this mediocrity 
    can take over 3b?   Helluva plan. 

    Have the White Sox front office checked their 2018 record lately ?  Of course,
    if they believe getting Manny's relative and work out buddy is key to getting 
    Manny then I suppose the "logic" of Moustakas as a fallback could be conceived 
    by the same minds as well.  
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    Soxillinirob
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    Re: More Self Delusion on the way ?

    Post by Soxillinirob on Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:26 am

    This craziness with signing his buddies and relatives is so ridiculous.  Having a 17 yr old son, I've been watching these kinds of shenanigans with who joins his travel baseball teams.  "I'm not accepting a slot on this team unless my lame ass buddy is on the team with me, or my sorry-ass cousin is my catcher." 

    I didn't think this was a big-boy style of making these decisions.  Just figured it's what kids do, since they don't get to earn any actual pay.  Good grief.
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    Son of Ron
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    Re: More Self Delusion on the way ?

    Post by Son of Ron on Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:55 am

    Soxillinirob wrote:This craziness with signing his buddies and relatives is so ridiculous.  Having a 17 yr old son, I've been watching these kinds of shenanigans with who joins his travel baseball teams.  "I'm not accepting a slot on this team unless my lame ass buddy is on the team with me, or my sorry-ass cousin is my catcher." 

    I didn't think this was a big-boy style of making these decisions.  Just figured it's what kids do, since they don't get to earn any actual pay.  Good grief.


    IS THIS HOW YOU GOT TO BE THE FIRST BASE COACH?!?!?!?

    BTW, ANY TRUTH TO THE RUMOR THAT MANNY MACHADO'S HOT NIECE WILL BE HIRED AS THE BALL GIRL?

    MAYBE HIS GRANDMOTHER CAN RUN THE RIGHTFIELD TACO STAND
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    Son of Ron
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    Re: More Self Delusion on the way ?

    Post by Son of Ron on Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:09 am

    rmapasad wrote:According to MLB.com's Jon Morosi, the White Sox and Phillies are monitoring the Mike Moustakas market.
    It sounds like Moustakas is the fallback plan for each club should Manny Machado sign elsewhere>


    WTF are the Sox thinking if this is the plan ?  Yeah, a 30 year old who has only been 
    a 3 win player twice in his eight year career (3.8 WAR best season) is a "fallback option" 
    for a 26 year old who has been a 6 win player three of the past four seasons.  


    According to BR, Moustakas and Sanchez had the same value last year.  
    According to Fan Graphs Moustakas was about 1/2 win better.  
    So 27 year old Sanchez will be put on the bench (or traded) so this mediocrity 
    can take over 3b?   Helluva plan. 

    Have the White Sox front office checked their 2018 record lately ?  Of course,
    if they believe getting Manny's relative and work out buddy is key to getting 
    Manny then I suppose the "logic" of Moustakas as a fallback could be conceived 
    by the same minds as well.  


    HOPEFULLY THIS LINKED STORY IS SPORTSWRITERS GIBBERISH IN ORDER TO FILL COLUMN SPACE IN JANUARY.


    THE KARK agrees with your conclusion regarding THE MOUSE, but I took a different logical path.


    Replacing Sanchez with Moustakas by itself is no big deal.  The real issue is that Yoan Moncada and Nick Madrigal are considered building blocks of the long term future and they both can't play 2B.  Madrigal is better suited for 2B so it makes sense to move Moncada.  The most logical place to move him to is 3B and the most logical time is now since his OJT will happen during a season where winning is not expected.


    Making this move also creates a short term advantage in that Yolmer Sanchez gets to play his natural position for a year and give OUR White Sox gold glove caliber defense at 2B.  This will increase Sanchez trade value to a point where he can hopefully be exchanged for something of value.  Sanchez deserves to play everyday somewhere.  Not be an under-utilized glove off the bench for an org that has clearly shown it does not appreciate the importance of quality defense.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: More Self Delusion on the way ?

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:06 pm

    Son of Ron wrote:
    Soxillinirob wrote:This craziness with signing his buddies and relatives is so ridiculous.  Having a 17 yr old son, I've been watching these kinds of shenanigans with who joins his travel baseball teams.  "I'm not accepting a slot on this team unless my lame ass buddy is on the team with me, or my sorry-ass cousin is my catcher." 

    I didn't think this was a big-boy style of making these decisions.  Just figured it's what kids do, since they don't get to earn any actual pay.  Good grief.



    Machado is looking for a 10 year deal although he may have to settle for 7-8 years.  How long will the Sox have to keep renewing Alonzo and Jay to keep him happy ?
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    rmapasad
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    Re: More Self Delusion on the way ?

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:15 pm

    Son of Ron wrote:HOPEFULLY THIS LINKED STORY IS SPORTSWRITERS GIBBERISH IN ORDER TO FILL COLUMN SPACE IN JANUARY.

    THE KARK agrees with your conclusion regarding THE MOUSE, but I took a different logical path.
    Replacing Sanchez with Moustakas by itself is no big deal.  The real issue is that Yoan Moncada and Nick Madrigal are considered building blocks of the long term future and they both can't play 2B.  Madrigal is better suited for 2B so it makes sense to move Moncada.  The most logical place to move him to is 3B and the most logical time is now since his OJT will happen during a season where winning is not expected.


    Making this move also creates a short term advantage in that Yolmer Sanchez gets to play his natural position for a year and give OUR White Sox gold glove caliber defense at 2B.  This will increase Sanchez trade value to a point where he can hopefully be exchanged for something of value.  Sanchez deserves to play everyday somewhere.  Not be an under-utilized glove off the bench for an org that has clearly shown it does not appreciate the importance of quality defense.

    Even if the Sox were a contender replacing Sanchez with Moustakas as a short-term move doesn't accomplish much.  Sure, 18 more RC by Moustakas v. Sanchez helps offensively but that's offset by 6 fewer runs via defense and baserunning.  Spinning wheels.



    Adding Moustakas, Nova, Alonso, Colome and Herrera is like 2015 when Sox added LaRoche, Cabrera, Samardzija, Robertson and Duke. That didn't help a team that had 5 guys who produced 23 WAR the prior year (Sale, Quintana, Eaton, Abreu, Ramirez).
    What is another conglomeration of mediocre vets going to do for a team whose top 5 guys in 2018 (Narvaez, Sanchez, Lopez, Moncada, Anderson) combined for only 11 WAR ?  Especially when one of them (Narvaez) is traded away and another one (Sanchez) is put on the bench ?
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    Son of Ron
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    Re: More Self Delusion on the way ?

    Post by Son of Ron on Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:56 pm

    Even if the Sox were a contender replacing Sanchez with Moustakas as a short-term move doesn't accomplish much.  Sure, 18 more RC by Moustakas v. Sanchez helps offensively but that's offset by 6 fewer runs via defense and baserunning.  Spinning wheels.


    ******************


    Not necessarily.  It would depend on the make up of the team.  If this mythical contender was heavy on speed and defense, but light on lefty power, then the move makes tons of sense.  But if they are homer happy with at least two from the left side, then you have a point.


    Again, this has nothing to do with OUR 2019 White Sox unless someone here is advocating for THE MOUSE.  THE KARK has been a move Moncada to 3B ever since realizing Yolmer was the hidden gem a year or so ago.
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    Son of Ron
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    Re: More Self Delusion on the way ?

    Post by Son of Ron on Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:08 pm

    BTW, you do realize you just can't take WAR and just add it up to come up with a win total.


    Baseball is not linear.  Players are not independent of other players.  WAR does a piss poor job off telling you the strengths and weaknesses of a player and does nothing to tell you how those strength and weaknesses interact within a group of players.  and let's not forget the law of declining utility...
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    rmapasad
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    Re: More Self Delusion on the way ?

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:01 pm

    Son of Ron wrote:BTW, you do realize you just can't take WAR and just add it up to come up with a win total.


    Baseball is not linear.  Players are not independent of other players.  WAR does a piss poor job off telling you the strengths and weaknesses of a player and does nothing to tell you how those strength and weaknesses interact within a group of players.  and let's not forget the law of declining utility...

    Agree that WAR like the Pythag isn't an exact basis for calculating actual wins.  Adding up WAR for the 2018 Sox = 64 wins, so pretty close to actual. But IIRC the standard deviation of WAR-calculated to actual wins for all teams was over 5, similar to the Pythag's deviation from actual.  
    Where both of these win calculation methods tend to go off course is when  teams win or lose a greater % of one-run games v. the rest of their record.  Sox were .375 in 1-run games but .385 in non-1 run games so this is probably why they were close in both WAR and Pythag wins v. actual.    


    In any event, when a team misses out on the playoffs by 30 wins WAR does a good job of pointing out the exact position-by-position deficiencies which accounted for that total.  
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    Son of Ron
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    Re: More Self Delusion on the way ?

    Post by Son of Ron on Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:16 am

    In any event, when a team misses out on the playoffs by 30 wins WAR does a good job of pointing out the exact position-by-position deficiencies which accounted for that total.


    *******************


    You don't need WAR to point out the first 20 deficient positions.


    Maybe the 21st and 22nd...


    But once you run out of fingers and toes, anything after really doesn't matter anyway.

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