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    White Sox top 3 needs

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    Son of Ron
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    White Sox top 3 needs

    Post by Son of Ron on Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:53 am

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/01/3-remaining-needs-al-central-2.html



    To summarize
    1) sign a real superstar.  BTW, they won't if rumors that they will only go 7 years is true
    2) find guys that can hit
    3) find guys that can pitch


    That's why the KARK was so pissed last summer.  Nothing to do with missing the playoffs.  Everything to do with the complete lack of hitting and pitching.  You don't have to be Tom Tango to figure out a winning team needs these two.  Lopez and Palka as your only two pluses ain't going to cut it
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    Re: White Sox top 3 needs

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:50 pm

    Son of Ron wrote:https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/01/3-remaining-needs-al-central-2.html



    To summarize
    1) sign a real superstar.  BTW, they won't if rumors that they will only go 7 years is true
    2) find guys that can hit
    3) find guys that can pitch


    That's why the KARK was so pissed last summer.  Nothing to do with missing the playoffs.  Everything to do with the complete lack of hitting and pitching.  You don't have to be Tom Tango to figure out a winning team needs these two.  Lopez and Palka as your only two pluses ain't going to cut it

    Need to add # 4 - guys who can catch and throw the ball.  Sox were 28th ranked in the majors in defense last year. The only positions that weren't in the bottom 1/3 of the majors were SS -Anderson(15th) and 3b-Sanchez  (10th). 
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    Son of Ron
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    Re: White Sox top 3 needs

    Post by Son of Ron on Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:57 pm

    NOW YOU KNOW I THE KARK IS WILLING TO TOLERATE ADAM ENGEL!!!!
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    Re: White Sox top 3 needs

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:50 pm

    Son of Ron wrote:NOW YOU KNOW I THE KARK IS WILLING TO TOLERATE ADAM ENGEL!!!!

    Engel's defense was decent but not terrific in 2018.   Among all major league CFer's with 500 innings+ last year, Engel ranked 19th in defense.  For a non-rebuilding team his glove wasn't exceptional enough to justify his piss-poor offense.   For the Sox, however, Engel was the better defensively than Leury or Tilson and neither of Engel's competitors' hitting was that far ahead of Engel.  Of the all CF beauty contestants, Engel's smile was the least toothless. 
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    Son of Ron
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    Re: White Sox top 3 needs

    Post by Son of Ron on Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:11 pm

    IF ENGEL IS 19, THAN SOMEBODY HAS A BUG IN THEIR COMPUTER.


    PEOPLE WHO WATCH THE GAME NOMINATED HIM FOR A GOLD GLOVE


    **************


    HOPEFULLY BASABE CAN CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AND BE UP IN CF BY SEPTEMBER.  BUT THAN, BASABE CAN HIT 330 AND OUR WHITE SOX WILL DECIDE HE NEEDS TO WORK ON SOMETHING JUST LONG ENOUGH TO SCREW WITH THE SERVICE TIME CLOCK.


    BTW, IN THE EVENT OF A HARPER MIRACLE, THE KARK PUTS HIM IN CF FOR 2019
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    Re: White Sox top 3 needs

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:38 pm

    IF ENGEL IS 19, THAN SOMEBODY HAS A BUG IN THEIR COMPUTER.

    PEOPLE WHO WATCH THE GAME NOMINATED HIM FOR A GOLD GLOVE..
    OK, instead of CFers with 500+ innings, limit it to those with 1000+ innings.
    12 such guys including Engel but he ranked 10th of those 12 in UZR/150. Doesn't seem to help his cause.
    Won't go off on my typical rant about the meaning of Gold Gloves (e.g, like when 
    Palmiero won one in '99 playing only 28 games in the field or all of Jeter's undeserved ones).  But as to "watching", that's integral to defensive metrics (looking at video replays to measure how much time it takes a fielder to get to a ball hit at a certain angle, velocity and distance compared to other fielders.)  
    Engel got a deserved good rep for defense in 2017.  He fell off from that in 2018.


     He  made 7 errors in 2018 (tied for 2nd highest in majors' CFers) and his throwing was subpar.  Of the 12 CFers with  1000+ innings, he was 8th in OF Assists but 1st in throwing errors.  In 2017, Engel converted 14% more non-routine chances than an avg CFer but in 2018 he only 3% more than an average CFer.  Don't see much that points to Engel being significantly better than average defensively in 2018.

    As to Basabe, agree he might be a good answer and relatively soon.  Sure a better hitter than Engel at comparable ages.   At 22, Engel was 744 in low A and 535 in high A.    At 22 this past year Basabe was 872 in high A and 734 in AA.    Basabe has some power and takes BB's but he has the typical bugaboo of White Sox prospects - too many strikeouts.

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    Re: White Sox top 3 needs

    Post by Guest on Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:56 pm

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    Soxillinirob
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    Re: White Sox top 3 needs

    Post by Soxillinirob on Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:18 pm

    rmapasad wrote:IF ENGEL IS 19, THAN SOMEBODY HAS A BUG IN THEIR COMPUTER.

    PEOPLE WHO WATCH THE GAME NOMINATED HIM FOR A GOLD GLOVE..
    OK, instead of CFers with 500+ innings, limit it to those with 1000+ innings.
    12 such guys including Engel but he ranked 10th of those 12 in UZR/150. Doesn't seem to help his cause.
    Won't go off on my typical rant about the meaning of Gold Gloves (e.g, like when 
    Palmiero won one in '99 playing only 28 games in the field or all of Jeter's undeserved ones).  But as to "watching", that's integral to defensive metrics (looking at video replays to measure how much time it takes a fielder to get to a ball hit at a certain angle, velocity and distance compared to other fielders.)  
    Engel got a deserved good rep for defense in 2017.  He fell off from that in 2018.


     He  made 7 errors in 2018 (tied for 2nd highest in majors' CFers) and his throwing was subpar.  Of the 12 CFers with  1000+ innings, he was 8th in OF Assists but 1st in throwing errors.  In 2017, Engel converted 14% more non-routine chances than an avg CFer but in 2018 he only 3% more than an average CFer.  Don't see much that points to Engel being significantly better than average defensively in 2018.

    As to Basabe, agree he might be a good answer and relatively soon.  Sure a better hitter than Engel at comparable ages.   At 22, Engel was 744 in low A and 535 in high A.    At 22 this past year Basabe was 872 in high A and 734 in AA.    Basabe has some power and takes BB's but he has the typical bugaboo of White Sox prospects - too many strikeouts.

    My eyes told me Engel was a very solid CF who occasionally made a sensational play.  He also fucked up a couple early in the season when he was expected to be out there for his defense and then blew plays he ought to make.  Not sure where he ranks, but my viewing of MLB games is that most teams have a very strong fielder with good speed playing in CF, which is what Engel is.  I don't know if that makes him average or better than average, but his defense isn't good enough for me to overlook how worthless of a hitter he is.
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    Re: White Sox top 3 needs

    Post by Son of Ron on Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:39 am

    ENGEL IS A TOP NOTCH DEFENDER DESPITE WHATEVER CHERRY PICKED STATS ROGER IS SPEWING.  THE MAN WAS 2ND IN RANGE FACTOR AND ROGER PAINTED A COMPLETELY NEGATIVE NARRATIVE BASED ON QUESTIONABLE USE OF STATISTICS.  LIKE ERRORS, ONLY ONE MORE THAN LORENZO CAIN.  PLUS WE ALL KNOW ERRORS CAN BE AN INDICATOR OF GREAT RANGE.  THEN THERE ARE ASSISTS.  LOW ASSISTS CAN MEAN PEOPLE WON'T CHALLENGE YOUR ARM.  OR MAYBE IT MEANS YOU CONSISTANTLY HIT THE CUT OFF MAN WHICH YOU ARE SUPPOSE TO DO.  AGAIN, ENGEL IS TOP NOTCH DEFENSIVELY AND THE 1.8 CROWD CAN CHANGE THAT WITH SOME FLAWED FORMULA.

    AS TO YOU LAST SENTENCE, I AGREE THAT ENGEL IS BY NO MEANS A LONG TERM SOLUTION.  BUT IF TEAMS WILL PLAY A CRAP FIELDER TO GET AN EXTRA BAT IN THE LINEUP, WHY NOT VICE VERSA?  THIS TEAM HAS SO MANY QUESTION MARKS, ITS NICE TO KNOW YOU HAVE AT LEAST HALF A PLAYER AT ONE POSITION.  UNTIL A REAL CF EMERGES, I KEEP ENGEL OUT THERE FOR HIS TOP NOTCH DEFENSE
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    Son of Ron
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    Re: White Sox top 3 needs

    Post by Son of Ron on Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:18 am

    ADAM ENGEL LEAD AL CF IN PUTOUTS


    MEANING HE CAUGHT MORE BALLS THAN ANY OTHER AL CF!!!!


    HOW THE HELL IS THAT JUST BARELY ABOVE AVERAGE?!?!?!?!


    THE TRUTH IS, THESE MAD SCIENTIST FIELDING FORMULA ARE ALL OVER THE MAP!!!!


    LOOK AT LORENZO CAIN.  ONE HAS HIM TOPS IN THE LEAGUE WITH 20.  ANOTHER HAS HIM AT -3


    I'LL BELIEVE MY OWN EYES AND VINTAGE BILL JAMES
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    rmapasad
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    Re: White Sox top 3 needs

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:44 pm

    The reason Engel led the league in putouts is simple - White Sox pitchers were #1 in flyball % and Engel led all CFers in chances per 9 innings (3.0 v. 2.5 league average). But the vast majority of those chances (92%) were "routine" plays according to Fan Graphs Inside Edge.  Engel also led majors in CF routine plays per 9 innings (2.7 v. 2.3 league average). Engel converted all but 1 of his 341 routine plays, which was slightly better % (99.7) than league avg. (99.5)


    However, Engel was 9th among 12 CFers in converting non-routine plays (40%).  The leaders in that category were Hamilton at 58%, Inciarte 56%, Bradley 56%, Cain 50%.  So it is really hard to find statistical justification for Engel being considered an elite CFer in 2018.  This is particularly true given his low # of Assists and his 4 throwing errors (highest among CFers).
    By the way, Fan Ratings of observing Engel give him subpar marks on his arm.


    In fairness to Engel, 35 non-routine plays is too small a sample to say he is subpar getting to balls.  Especially since he's only been in the majors for 1.5 years where the leaders in that category have all been around for 4 years or more and thus more familiar with positioning hitters and the nuances of various ballparks.  No doubt Engel is fleet and gets good jumps on the ball and has made some very nice highlight film plays and doesn't muff routine plays very often. In fact 2 of his fielding errors have come off high % yet "non-routine" plays, which is a testament to his range.  

    But the overall statistics in 2018 just don't rate Engel high enough defensively to overlook his obvious shortcomings as a hitter.  While he clearly is the best defensive CFer the Sox have, he is still inadequate for the job and hopefully Basabe and/or Robert will be on the scene soon.
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    Son of Ron
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    Re: White Sox top 3 needs

    Post by Son of Ron on Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:08 am

    1). Maybe it’s your metrics that are subpar.  Like you said, lack of sample size.
    2)  The purpose of fielding is catching the ball.  Nobody caught more than Engel.  Spare me your easy fly ball excuse.  Maybe he just positions himself better than any other CF
    3). Nobody is saying Engel s/b in CF for the next decade.  What I am saying is that his gold glove caliber defense, and it is gold glove in spite of your BS metrics, that he should be the CF in 2019 because he does fill a need and there are bigger problems to solve
    4). I play Harper in CF if that miracle happens.
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    Re: White Sox top 3 needs

    Post by Son of Ron on Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:00 am

    BTW, THE ONLY REASON THE KARK IS TOUTING ADAM ENGEL IS DUE TO MY BELIEVE THAT PLAYING LEURY GARCIA OR RYAN CORDELL ON A FULL TIME BASIS IS JUST PLAIN DUMB.

    NEITHER CAN MATCH ENGEL'S DEFENSE.  WHILE BOTH WOULD PROBABLY HIT BETTER, THEIR BATS WOULD BE AT BEST AVERAGE.

    GIVE ME THE GOLD GLOVE DEFENSE ANY DAY OF THE WEEK OVER AN AVERAGE AT BEST AT BOTH HITTING AND FIELDING.

    ************

    THAT SAID, STRATEGIC USE OF GARCIA AND CORDELL TO MINIMIZE ENGEL'S AT BATS IS A GOOD IDEA
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    Re: White Sox top 3 needs

    Post by rmapasad on Sat Jan 05, 2019 4:57 pm

    Son of Ron wrote:1). Maybe it’s your metrics that are subpar.  Like you said, lack of sample size.
    2)  The purpose of fielding is catching the ball.  Nobody caught more than Engel.  Spare me your easy fly ball excuse.  Maybe he just positions himself better than any other CF
    3). Nobody is saying Engel s/b in CF for the next decade.  What I am saying is that his gold glove caliber defense, and it is gold glove in spite of your BS metrics, that he should be the CF in 2019 because he does fill a need and there are bigger problems to solve
    4). I play Harper in CF if that miracle happens.

    I agree modern defensive metrics still haven't gotten it completely right.  But using putouts is going backward. Bill James debunked those many years ago, pointing out that when pitchers (like 2018  Sox) allow high % of FB's their OFers will have high # of putouts, but that hardly proves those OFers are above average fielders.


    88% of all CF plays were rated "routine" by Inside Edge. 91% of Engel's were classified "routine" and maybe his good range and first step got more of his plays got tagged "routine" instead of "highly probable". Engel's range on "low probability" chances was good too as he converted 23% v. 19% league average.  However, Bradley, Almora, Pollock and Pillar are 30% + in those tough play conversions so Engel wasn't quite elite in that category.

    Engels' biggest ding is holding runners and the samples aren't small.  He had 195 chances to hold runners and in every situation he was below average.  He was weak at keeping runners from 2nd tagging up and going to 3rd on flyballs. 53% advanced on Engel v. only 39% league average and a mere 20% did on Gold Glover Jackie Bradley.  Ditto on runners going from 1st to 3rd on singles.  41% went on Engel only 17% on Bradley.  Runners know Engel's arm is below average.   

    While an argument could be made that Engel's legs and instincts may be near the upper echelon his subpar throwing definitely means overall he's not in same league as true Gold Glove CFers like Bradley or Kiermaier. Quite simply that means, in my view, that his offense really needs to improve sharply over that 613 OPS or he's no more than a defensive replacement/pinch runner type.  
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    Re: White Sox top 3 needs

    Post by Son of Ron on Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:54 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Son of Ron wrote:1). Maybe it’s your metrics that are subpar.  Like you said, lack of sample size.
    2)  The purpose of fielding is catching the ball.  Nobody caught more than Engel.  Spare me your easy fly ball excuse.  Maybe he just positions himself better than any other CF
    3). Nobody is saying Engel s/b in CF for the next decade.  What I am saying is that his gold glove caliber defense, and it is gold glove in spite of your BS metrics, that he should be the CF in 2019 because he does fill a need and there are bigger problems to solve
    4). I play Harper in CF if that miracle happens.

    I agree modern defensive metrics still haven't gotten it completely right.  But using putouts is going backward. Bill James debunked those many years ago, pointing out that when pitchers (like 2018  Sox) allow high % of FB's their OFers will have high # of putouts, but that hardly proves those OFers are above average fielders.

    Whatever, I've scene how you interpet the works of others and I doubt Bill James debunked the value of a putout.  at least not in the way you phrase it.  While you do have somewhat of a point about flyball pitchers, it doesn't mean we discount Engel's range either.


    88% of all CF plays were rated "routine" by Inside Edge. 91% of Engel's were classified "routine" and maybe his good range and first step got more of his plays got tagged "routine" instead of "highly probable". Engel's range on "low probability" chances was good too as he converted 23% v. 19% league average.  However, Bradley, Almora, Pollock and Pillar are 30% + in those tough play conversions so Engel wasn't quite elite in that category.

     all in a sample size that renders this meaningless

    Engels' biggest ding is holding runners and the samples aren't small.  He had 195 chances to hold runners and in every situation he was below average.  He was weak at keeping runners from 2nd tagging up and going to 3rd on flyballs. 53% advanced on Engel v. only 39% league average and a mere 20% did on Gold Glover Jackie Bradley.  Ditto on runners going from 1st to 3rd on singles.  41% went on Engel only 17% on Bradley.  Runners know Engel's arm is below average.

    195 is not that big a sample size, but so what.  Range is independent of arm  

    While an argument could be made that Engel's legs and instincts may be near the upper echelon his subpar throwing definitely means overall he's not in same league as true Gold Glove CFers like Bradley or Kiermaier.

    Neither of whom are on the White Sox so who cares.

    Quite simply that means, in my view, that his offense really needs to improve sharply over that 613 OPS or he's no more than a defensive replacement/pinch runner type.  

     do you read my posts in their entirety?!?!?!  Never have I said that Engel's glove justifies his bat.  But his gold calber glove, and it is golden, justifies him over the current collection of stiffs who are the alternatives this spring.


    PS, his arm was rated a 50 the last time he appeared on a prospect list in 2016.  50 is not subpar.   More like you overrating/misintereptting the metrics again 

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