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    What does Alonso mean?

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    Son of Ron
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    What does Alonso mean?

    Post by Son of Ron on Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:58 am

    White Sox acquire Yonder Alonso in exchange for Alex Call.


    Oh Well, at least they didn't give up any talent.


    Some random thoughts:


    1)  Should we kiss Bryce Harper good bye?
    2)  Or do we kiss Jose Abreau good bye?
    3)  This off season is looking at lot WIN NOW'eee.  
    4)  We non tender Garcia and Davidson to make room for this clown?




    As for Alonso, I assume he is better defensively at 1B than Abreau.  He is set to make $8mil this year.  He has a 9mil option for 2020 at automatically vests if he get 526 plate appearances this season.


    He is also Manny Machado's brother in law, so maybe OUR White Sox have decided Machado is the better 1/2 billion dollar investment.  Or maybe not.




    KARK's KALL:


    I fail to see how this move helps OUR White Sox unless it somehow involves the brother in law.  Alonso will be 32 and has only had one good year, which appear to be a 2017 fluke year.  On the other hand, OUR White Sox really didn't give up any talent.  Alex Call doesn't crack the top 30 and OUR White Sox probably have 10 outfield prospects better than him.


    By itself, I rate the deal about the same has the Nova deal.  Really doesn't help the rebuilding process, but OUR White Sox still need to field a team.  So in that sense it does help.  My fear is that this might be a signal that OUR White Sox will NOT be signing Harper or Machado and that would SUCK

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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by Guest on Sat Dec 15, 2018 11:16 am

    How do all of these washed up and mediocre YOUNG MILLIONAIRES wind up on the White Sox?
    WIN NOW-RELOAD!!
    BRING BACK SHOOTERS BUFFET!!
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    Son of Ron
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by Son of Ron on Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:38 am

    Because you need to rotate the stiffs in order to look like you are doing something!!!!


    They could have kept Garcia and Davidson for the same amount of cash and probably field a better team.


    However, that team would still suck.  So let's go with a fresh face and pretend we are making progress
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:59 pm

    Son of Ron wrote:White Sox acquire Yonder Alonso in exchange for Alex Call.


    Oh Well, at least they didn't give up any talent.


    Some random thoughts:


    1)  Should we kiss Bryce Harper good bye?
    2)  Or do we kiss Jose Abreau good bye?
    3)  This off season is looking at lot WIN NOW'eee.  
    4)  We non tender Garcia and Davidson to make room for this clown?




    As for Alonso, I assume he is better defensively at 1B than Abreau.  He is set to make $8mil this year.  He has a 9mil option for 2020 at automatically vests if he get 526 plate appearances this season.


    He is also Manny Machado's brother in law, so maybe OUR White Sox have decided Machado is the better 1/2 billion dollar investment.  Or maybe not.




    KARK's KALL:


    I fail to see how this move helps OUR White Sox unless it somehow involves the brother in law.  Alonso will be 32 and has only had one good year, which appear to be a 2017 fluke year.  On the other hand, OUR White Sox really didn't give up any talent.  Alex Call doesn't crack the top 30 and OUR White Sox probably have 10 outfield prospects better than him.


    By itself, I rate the deal about the same has the Nova deal.  Really doesn't help the rebuilding process, but OUR White Sox still need to field a team.  So in that sense it does help.  My fear is that this might be a signal that OUR White Sox will NOT be signing Harper or Machado and that would SUCK

    Not sure what this deal accomplished other than trying to entice Machado to sign. 
    Alonso has only averaged 1 win above replacement per year for last 3 seasons, and yes 2017 was a fluke. It was just the first 3 months of 2017 (934 OPS) that he was good. Been back to sub mediocre ever since.  
    Sox could have signed Lucas Duda for about half the price, given up no prospects (not that Call is that much of one) and gotten essentially the same player.  While Alonso's glove is better than Abreu's it's not that much better.  Of course if the Sox decide to trade Abreu, Alonso saves some money since Jose will likely $ 13-14 Mil.
    Although the Sox claim they'll hold onto Abreu and have him DH against RHers.  


    If Sox intend an Abreu/Alfonso tandem at 1b/DH, not very impressive, especially since they'll need a RHed DH to fill in for Alonso against LHed pitchers (he can't hit for shit against them).  

    Last but not least, in the unlikely event that Alonso caused Machado to sign, how do the Sox manuever the IF ?  Machado wants to play SS, so I guess this means Anderson moves to 3b.  
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by Son of Ron on Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:17 pm

    THERE HAS BEEN TALK IN THE PAST OF MOVING TIM ANDERSON TO CENTERFIELD.


    BESIDES, ITS MONCADA THAT NEEDS TO MOVE TO 3B.


    I CAN JUST SEE THE FUTURE INFIELD OF BURGER - MACHADO - MONCADA.  100 HOMERS - 100 ERRORS


    OUR WHITE SOX WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER OFF KEEPING GARCIA AND DAVIDSON IF YONDER ALONSO IS THE ALTERNATIVE

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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by Guest on Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:32 pm

    BELIEVE!!
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    rmapasad
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:21 pm

    Son of Ron wrote:THERE HAS BEEN TALK IN THE PAST OF MOVING TIM ANDERSON TO CENTERFIELD.


    BESIDES, ITS MONCADA THAT NEEDS TO MOVE TO 3B.


    I CAN JUST SEE THE FUTURE INFIELD OF BURGER - MACHADO - MONCADA.  100 HOMERS - 100 ERRORS


    OUR WHITE SOX WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER OFF KEEPING GARCIA AND DAVIDSON IF YONDER ALONSO IS THE ALTERNATIVE

    I am puzzled by these moves this winter.

    Narvaez (27 years old - 2.1 WAR - $ 1.5 mil proj 2019 salary) for
    Alex Colome (30 years old  - 1.3 WAR - $ 6-7 mil proj 2019 salary) -
    then sign James McCann as backup Catcher
    (28 years old - negative .-5 WAR -  $ 2.5 million 2019 salary)

    Rosario (19 years old) for Ivan Nova ( 32 years old - 1.1 WAR - $ 9 mil 2019 salary)

    Call (24 years old - 740 OPS in AA) for
    Yonder Alonso (32 years old - 1.1 WAR  742 OPS - $ 8 mil salary)

    Released Davidson (27 years old - .8 WAR  738 OPS - proj 2019 salary - $ 1.5 million)
    Released Garcia (27 years old   - 0 WAR - 719 OPS - proj 2019 salary = $ 7 million)

    Garcia is capable of a good season or two in next 3 years, but at $ 7 mil he 
    isn't worth the gamble with his inconsistency, subpar defense, shitty plate discipline 
    and injury proneness.  

    Nova's eating 180 IP at $ 9 mil substitutes for Shields who got  10 mil for it this year.
    Still, options in free agency (Tyson Ross, Erasmo Ramirez, Matt Harvey) are comparable
    pitchers and wouldn't have meant giving up a prospect.  Rosario is a live arm [size=16]and at 18 years[/size]
    [size=16]old no point giving up on him if you don't have to.   [/size]


    Releasing Davidson wasn't all that necessary and considering that he can hit LHers in

    a DH/1b platoon on the cheap and is 28 years old, no real gain by the Sox here. 


    Call for Alonso decision also makes little sense, in my view.  Picking up free agents 

    Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison or Neil Walker gets about the same quality player for maybe

    a tad less even and [size=16]doesn't again require the sacrifice of a prospect.   Granted, Call wasn't [/size]

    [size=16]much of a prospect but [size=16]sometimes guys like him are late bloomers in their mid-late 20's [/size][/size]

    [size=16][size=16]and Call had some skills. [size=16]It also makes the decision to let Davidson go more curious because [/size][/size][/size]

    [size=16][size=16][size=16]Alonzo can't hit LHers but [size=16]Davidson can.[/size][/size][/size][/size]



    I didn't like the Narvaez for Colome deal. Sox had the best backup Catcher in baseball this year
    in Narvaez, a guy who is capable of being a decent starter if the main guy is injured or for that
    matter he's a perfectly capable starter if the Sox don't want to spend $ 10 Mil for a free agent
    Catcher.   Colome is the new closer and he's a decent enough arm but was giving up a valuable
    Catcher like Narvaez necessary ?   If the Sox are serious about [size=16]competing in 2020-2021 why[/size]
    [size=16]not sign free agents like Jeurys Familia or Kimbrel on a three year deal ?  [size=16]Colome becomes[/size][/size]
    [size=16][size=16]a free agent in 2021.[/size][/size]

    If getting mediocrities like Alfonso, Nova, Colome and McCann are supposed to make the Sox
    more competitive in 2019, that's laughable.    At best, all they do is make the team about
    2-3 wins  better. 
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by Son of Ron on Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:12 am

    If getting mediocrities like Alfonso, Nova, Colome and McCann are supposed to make the Sox
    more competitive in 2019, that's laughable.    At best, all they do is make the team about
    2-3 wins  better. 


    **********************


    The games still have to be played.

    Plus you are the one claiming the real building blocks are still in the minors at least a year away.

    So what are the suppose to do?  Bring back Cody Asche and Rymer Liriano and listen to the sounds of crickets coming from the stands?

    True, the moves are nothing the write home about.  But they didn't give up anything either.  Plus Colome is a potential steal.  Narvaez ain't nothing. Time to cash him out on an obvious peak year.
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by Son of Ron on Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:21 am

     If the Sox are serious about competing in 2020-2021 why not sign free agents like Jeurys Familia or Kimbrel on a three year deal ?


    ****************************


    You mocked this logic last year when it came to Lorenzo Cain.  Now you want to gamble that 30 year old pitchers stay healthy for three whole years, two of which won't mean a damn.


    PS, Cain was everything I claimed in 2018.  Would have lead OUR White Sox in ofense and defense.  But go ahead and enjoy Adam Engel, the Mike Squires of centerfield.  I sure all our top prospects will mature at the exact same time in 2020 just as planned.  NOT
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:58 am

    Son of Ron wrote: If the Sox are serious about competing in 2020-2021 why not sign free agents like Jeurys Familia or Kimbrel on a three year deal ?


    ****************************


    You mocked this logic last year when it came to Lorenzo Cain.  Now you want to gamble that 30 year old pitchers stay healthy for three whole years, two of which won't mean a damn.


    PS, Cain was everything I claimed in 2018.  Would have lead OUR White Sox in ofense and defense.  But go ahead and enjoy Adam Engel, the Mike Squires of centerfield.  I sure all our top prospects will mature at the exact same time in 2020 just as planned.  NOT


    Cain was great in 2018 but it took a 5 year deal to sign him, the first two years of which would be a waste for the Sox since they aren't likely to contend until 2020.   Cain turns 34 in 2020 and at that age he's at risk of serious decline while still owed    $ 50 million on the rest of his contract.   With Familia, who's 29 right now, you're wasting 2019 but with a good likelihood he still could be a top shelf closer in 2020-2021 and the risk is only $ 20 million for those years. 
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:48 pm

    So what are the suppose to do?  Bring back Cody Asche and Rymer Liriano and listen to the sounds of crickets coming from the stands? wrote:
    True, the moves are nothing the write home about.  But they didn't give up anything either.  Plus Colome is a potential steal.  Narvaez ain't nothing. Time to cash him out on an obvious peak year.

    Sox's attendance was 1.6 million this year, same as 2017 which was also an obvious white flag year.  But Sox attendance has been in the 1.6 -1.78 range steadily from 2013-on and half those years were supposed to be win-now.   Whether it would be  at that level through another clear white-flag season in 2019 is hard to tell. But if fans are getting impatient in 2019, are Alonso, Nova and Colome enough of an improvements over the Davidsons, Delmonicos, Coveys and Jace Fryes to stem any fan loss ?  
    If Machado or Harper are part of the 2019 equation that's another matter.  Maybe those supposed "improvements" in adding a few vets are meant to show a Harper or Machado the Sox are serious about providing them a surrounding cast.

    As to Narvaez, he was the 8th best Catcher in the majors this year so that's hardly a "nothing".  Granted, some of that was his jump in power which may or may not be a fluke.  But what isn't a fluke is his OBP which has steadily been in the 350-375 range for each of last 3 seasons and his above average defense.   Plus he only turns 27.  In short, the Sox had a solid Catcher at prime age range, at bargain prices and under team control until 2023.  They gave away a good asset for a 30 year old closer who becomes free agent eligible in 2021.   When they could have gotten the same type of Closer (or better) in free agency without giving up that asset.  
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by Son of Ron on Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:50 pm

    And just how is Familia different from Colome?!?!?!


    And who's to say 2020-21 aren't wasted years as well?!?!?!


    and what about Kimbrel?!?!?  Experts predicting a 4 year deal.


    Plus I love how 34 is the danger year when I am picking the players, but you somehow know the exceptions.  Especially when they are after the fact like Konerko and your sophomoric "build on the 2010 team" argument.


    The simple truth is, OUR White Sox haven't done anything to hurt the rebuilding process with the moves they made this winter.  Plus you can take 2020 out of the picture thanks to last year's 100 loss regression.  So your three year deals are rather silly.
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by Son of Ron on Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:00 pm

    TALK ABOUT YOUR BAD MATH!!!!!


    ITS CRAP LIKE THIS THAT GIVES SABERMETRICS A BAD NAME.


    NARVAEZ IS A DECENT BAT WITH A CRAP GLOVE WHO CLEARLY PEAKED.  HE MIGHT HOLD IT ANOTHER YEAR OR TWO BUT HE ISN'T GETTING ANY BETTER.


    8TH BEST CATCHER IN BASEBALL MY BLACK ASS.


    SOMETHING TELLS ME THAT IF MLB THREW 60 CATCHERS IN A POT, NARVAEZ WOULD NOT BE THE 8TH ONE PICKED FOR THE 2019 SEASON
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by Son of Ron on Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:23 pm

    WRONG QUESTION BASED UPON A FALSE PREMISE!!!!

    THE REAL QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT DAVIDSON ETC EVEN BELONG IN THE BIG LEAGUES

    ANSWER: MAYBE OFF THE BENCH BUT NOT AS AS EVERYDAY PLAYER. 

    OK, it doesn't make sense to cut Garcia and Davidson just to replace with Alonso.  But then, I said that like 3 days ago.  I all likelihood, this is a wash

    Colome was a steal.  2017 saves leader for a catcher overrated by bad math.  I do that trade everyday of the week and twice on Sundays.

    Nova, veteran arm for a 19 year old that is listed nowhere in any prospect listing.  Maybe this becomes the next Drabek for Smalley.  More likely, we have hear of Rosario again.  In the mean time, somebody has to pitch.  And maybe OUR White Sox see something in him they like.  Ever consider that?
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by Son of Ron on Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:31 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Still, options in free agency (Tyson Ross, Erasmo Ramirez, Matt Harvey) are comparable
    pitchers and wouldn't have meant giving up a prospect.  Rosario is a live arm [size=16]and at 18 years[/size]
    [size=16]old no point giving up on him if you don't have to.  [/size]


    AND YOUR THE ONE THAT MOCKED ME FOR SUGGESTING DOUG FISTER LAST WINTER!!!!!!

    HE WAS HALF THIS PRICE AND ALSO DID NOT COST A PROSPECT!!!!!!

    THE YOU WONDER WHY I CLAIM YOU JUST DELIBERATELY DISAGREE WITH ME!!!!
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:44 pm

    Son of Ron wrote:TALK ABOUT YOUR BAD MATH!!!!!


    ITS CRAP LIKE THIS THAT GIVES SABERMETRICS A BAD NAME.


    NARVAEZ IS A DECENT BAT WITH A CRAP GLOVE WHO CLEARLY PEAKED.  HE MIGHT HOLD IT ANOTHER YEAR OR TWO BUT HE ISN'T GETTING ANY BETTER.


    8TH BEST CATCHER IN BASEBALL MY BLACK ASS.


    SOMETHING TELLS ME THAT IF MLB THREW 60 CATCHERS IN A POT, NARVAEZ WOULD NOT BE THE 8TH ONE PICKED FOR THE 2019 SEASON


    Narvaez's 794 was the 5th best OPS of all Catchers with 300+ PA's this year so what's
    the basis for calling his ranking "bad math" ? His defense was about average according to BR
    (.1 above replacement but their "replacement level" defense = league avg)
    and around the same by Fan Graphs.   He caught 24% of runners trying to steal v. 28%
    league average but some of that may be due to Covey and Giolito who were terrible at
    holding runners.   

    Seattle traded their Catcher of last year (Zunino) who had 45 HR's over last two seasons
    and seem willing to give Narvaez the job since he comes with 4 years of team control (versus
    only 2 more years of Colome).   Narvaez improved his OPS by 26 pts. in 2017 and by 79
    pts in 2018.   That said, one red flag is that his BABIP has been .330 these last couple years
    and if it drops to .290 or .300, which he was at in the high minors, then [size=16]he becomes a[/size]
    [size=16]low 700's instead of high 700's guy.[/size]

    But at the worst case of low 700's still make him a very good # 2 Catcher and still relatively
    cheap and best case is he's a perfectly fine as a # 1[size=16] these next four years.  If the Sox still[/size]
    [size=16]have doubts about [size=16][size=16]Collins' ability to [size=16]Catch, Narvaez was at least a fallback option.  Decent [/size][/size][/size][/size]
    [size=16][size=16][size=16][size=16]Catchers do not grow [size=16][size=16][size=16]on trees [size=16]and even the mediocre ones are expensive.  Where I think it[/size][/size][/size][/size][/size][/size][/size][/size]
    [size=16][size=16][size=16][size=16][size=16][size=16][size=16][size=16]is easier to obtain Closers [size=16][size=16][size=16][size=16]in [size=16]free agency or homegrow them from failed starters. [/size][/size][/size][/size][/size][/size][/size][/size][/size][/size][/size][/size][/size]
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:22 am

    Son of Ron wrote:
    rmapasad wrote:
    Still, options in free agency (Tyson Ross, Erasmo Ramirez, Matt Harvey) are comparable
    pitchers and wouldn't have meant giving up a prospect.  Rosario is a live arm [size=16]and at 18 years[/size]
    [size=16]old no point giving up on him if you don't have to.  [/size]


    AND YOUR THE ONE THAT MOCKED ME FOR SUGGESTING DOUG FISTER LAST WINTER!!!!!!

    HE WAS HALF THIS PRICE AND ALSO DID NOT COST A PROSPECT!!!!!!

    THE YOU WONDER WHY I CLAIM YOU JUST DELIBERATELY DISAGREE WITH ME!!!!


    Fister turned 34 years old in Feb. 2018 and was coming off a season where he had thrown only 90 IP for the Red Sox to the tune of a 4.88 ERA.  If the Sox wanted someone to eat innings this year he didn't seem to fit that bill.  
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by Son of Ron on Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:26 am

    rmapasad wrote:
    the basis for calling his ranking "bad math" ? His defense was about average according to BR
    (.1 above replacement but their "replacement level" defense = league avg)
    and around the same by Fan Graphs.   He caught 24% of runners trying to steal v. 28%
    league average but some of that may be due to Covey and Giolito who were terrible at
    holding runners. 


    Here's my basis for your bad math


    1) 300 PA is a platoon player.  Narvaez had 322PA.  So he is a platoon player.  In the 57 PA where he did face a lefty, he OPS at 567.  show watch that OPS shrink as playing time increases.
    2) His defensive runs saved per 1200 IP is a MINUS 24.  He is considered a bad framer of pitchers and his arm is below average.  so spare me your invented crap about Covey not holding runners on.  Every team has their fair share of pitchers that can't hold runners.  Narvaez is considereed below average defensively by those who watch games instead of spreadsheets.
    3)  Colome lead the league in saves in 2017.  If Seattle was anxious to dump him, that tells me its probably a problem with Colome.  Not that Narvaez is the new Carlton Fisk.
    4)  Seattle is dumping salary, that's why they traded their catcher.  Nothing to do with the greatness of Narvaez.
    5)  I just love your hypocricsy on how Juerys Familia could have been our true blue closer in the 2021 pennant run, but Colome is the stiff we got for Thurman Munson Jr.
    6)  Closers are more important that platoon catchers
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:57 pm

    Son of Ron wrote:


    1) 300 PA is a platoon player.  Narvaez had 322PA.  So he is a platoon player.  In the 57 PA where he did face a lefty, he OPS at 567.  show watch that OPS shrink as playing time increases.
    2) His defensive runs saved per 1200 IP is a MINUS 24.  He is considered a bad framer of pitchers and his arm is below average.  so spare me your invented crap about Covey not holding runners on.  Every team has their fair share of pitchers that can't hold runners.  Narvaez is considereed below average defensively by those who watch games instead of spreadsheets.
    3)  Colome lead the league in saves in 2017.  If Seattle was anxious to dump him, that tells me its probably a problem with Colome.  Not that Narvaez is the new Carlton Fisk.
    4)  Seattle is dumping salary, that's why they traded their catcher.  Nothing to do with the greatness of Narvaez.
    5)  I just love your hypocricsy on how Juerys Familia could have been our true blue closer in the 2021 pennant run, but Colome is the stiff we got for Thurman Munson Jr.
    6)  Closers are more important that platoon catchers

    1 - Agree, Narvaez hit RHers better in 2018 and in 2017 but the platoon spread was smaller in '17. Assume he's used v. RHers, that's 2/3 of all pitchers.  400 PA's and mid 700's OPS is decent production for a Catcher.

    2 - OK, I looked at Fan Graphs again and agree Narvaez's defensive stats are subpar. His 24% CS is slightly below league average 28% and scouts have said his arm is below average. That said, both 
    Fan Graphs and Baseball Reference had his WAR close to 2 so defense wasn't that big a drag 
    on his overall value.  Plus at age 27, Narvaez still has time to improve his defense (not the arm though).

    3 - M's likely see Narvaez not as a future All Star but a guy who'll be decent at a tough-to-fill position for the next 4 years at affordable prices.   So what if Colome led in Saves in 2017 ? Zach Britton led the league in Saves in 2016, but only got 7 of them this year.  Closers come and go. Seattle traded away both Edwin Diaz (their closer) and Colome this offseason apparently not concerned that they can find or cultivate one in the future when they're ready to contend. 

    4- Zunino would cost $ 4.5 mil and Colome maybe $ 7 mil this year and both are free agents in 2021.  M's don't expect to contend until 2022-2024.  So neither fit the plan.  Which raises the question of what White Sox plan does Colome fit ?  

    5 - Familia is 29, younger than Colome and has been a better reliever.  Plus he could be locked up for 2021, a year that you yourself have said is more realistic for the Sox to be in the hunt.  Granted the Sox would probably spend $ 2.5 mil more per year on Familia in 2019-2020 in order to get to 2021 but that's a pittance if he helps them get to the playoffs.  For the record, though, my belief is that NEITHER Colome or Familia would be that necessary to acquire in 2019.  Sox have some live arms in the system (maybe even Kopech) who could fit that bill by 2021. 

    6-  Here are Colome and Narvaez respective WAR values for the last three seasons 
                Colome   FanGraph   BasebRef                  Narvaez  FanGraph   BasebRef
    2018                  1.0            1.1                                         2.1            1.9 
    2017                  1.2              .7                                         1.5            1.2
    2016                  1.1            2.3                                           .2             .3

    TOTAL                3.3            4.1  =  3.7 AVG                       3.8             2.4    = 3.1 AVG.
    Narvaez was a rookie with only 117 PA's in 2016 too.  Colome was a Closer for 2.5 seasons.  
    Doesn't seem to support the notion that Closers are more important than platoon Catchers.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:58 pm

    Son of Ron wrote:


    1) 300 PA is a platoon player.  Narvaez had 322PA.  So he is a platoon player.  In the 57 PA where he did face a lefty, he OPS at 567.  show watch that OPS shrink as playing time increases.
    2) His defensive runs saved per 1200 IP is a MINUS 24.  He is considered a bad framer of pitchers and his arm is below average.  so spare me your invented crap about Covey not holding runners on.  Every team has their fair share of pitchers that can't hold runners.  Narvaez is considereed below average defensively by those who watch games instead of spreadsheets.
    3)  Colome lead the league in saves in 2017.  If Seattle was anxious to dump him, that tells me its probably a problem with Colome.  Not that Narvaez is the new Carlton Fisk.
    4)  Seattle is dumping salary, that's why they traded their catcher.  Nothing to do with the greatness of Narvaez.
    5)  I just love your hypocricsy on how Juerys Familia could have been our true blue closer in the 2021 pennant run, but Colome is the stiff we got for Thurman Munson Jr.
    6)  Closers are more important that platoon catchers

    1 - Agree, Narvaez hit RHers better in 2018 and in 2017 but the platoon spread was smaller in '17. Assume he's used v. RHers, that's 2/3 of all pitchers.  400 PA's and mid 700's OPS is decent production for a Catcher.

    2 - OK, I looked at Fan Graphs again and agree Narvaez's defensive stats are subpar. His 24% CS is slightly below league average 28% and scouts have said his arm is below average. That said, both 
    Fan Graphs and Baseball Reference had his WAR close to 2 so defense wasn't that big a drag 
    on his overall value.  Plus at age 27, Narvaez still has time to improve his defense (not the arm though).

    3 - M's likely see Narvaez not as a future All Star but a guy who'll be decent at a tough-to-fill position for the next 4 years at affordable prices.   So what if Colome led in Saves in 2017 ? Zach Britton led the league in Saves in 2016, but only got 7 of them this year.  Closers come and go. Seattle traded away both Edwin Diaz (their closer) and Colome this offseason apparently not concerned that they can find or cultivate one in the future when they're ready to contend. 

    4- Zunino would cost $ 4.5 mil and Colome maybe $ 7 mil this year and both are free agents in 2021.  M's don't expect to contend until 2022-2024.  So neither fit the plan.  Which raises the question of what White Sox plan does Colome fit ?  

    5 - Familia is 29, younger than Colome and has been a better reliever.  Plus he could be locked up for 2021, a year that you yourself have said is more realistic for the Sox to be in the hunt.  Granted the Sox would probably spend $ 2.5 mil more per year on Familia in 2019-2020 in order to get to 2021 but that's a pittance if he helps them get to the playoffs.  For the record, though, my belief is that NEITHER Colome or Familia would be that necessary to acquire in 2019.  Sox have some live arms in the system (maybe even Kopech) who could fit that bill by 2021. 

    6-  Here are Colome and Narvaez respective WAR values for the last three seasons 
                Colome   FanGraph   BasebRef                  Narvaez  FanGraph   BasebRef
    2018                  1.0            1.1                                         2.1            1.9 
    2017                  1.2              .7                                         1.5            1.2
    2016                  1.1            2.3                                           .2             .3

    TOTAL                3.3            4.1  =  3.7 AVG                       3.8             2.4    = 3.1 AVG.
    Narvaez was a rookie with only 117 PA's in 2016 too.  Colome was a Closer for 2.5 seasons.  
    Doesn't seem to support the notion that Closers are more important than platoon Catchers.
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    Son of Ron
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by Son of Ron on Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:10 pm

    Doesn't seem to support the notion that Closers are more important than platoon Catchers.


    ******************


    No, it support the notion that there are some logical flaws in WAR


    Or maybe its not as good as you think when comparing hitters and pitcher.


    But if you want to believe a quality closer is worth less than a platoon catcher because of some formula, go right ahead.  Maybe you can ask you hero who is still lurking in another thread.
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    Son of Ron
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by Son of Ron on Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:34 pm

    For the record, though, my belief is that NEITHER Colome or Familia would be that necessary to acquire in 2019.


    *************************


    THEN WHY THE HELL DID YOU SUGGEST SIGNING HIM IN THE FIRST PLACE?!?!?!?!?


    THEN YOU WONDER WHY I GIVE YOU CRAP.  SO BLATANTLY OBVIOUS TO JUST INVENT STUFF TO DELIBERATELY DISAGREE WITH ME.


    LIKE YOUR OUTRIGHT NONSENSE OVER 2010 TO YOUR DECADE LOOK BLINDNESS TO MULTICOLINEARITY WHICH YOUR HERO PROVED I WAS 100% CORRECT.  ASSUMING THAT WAS ACTUALLY HIM COMING HERE, WHICH I DOUBT CONSIDERING HOW SOPHOMORIC HIS POSTS WHERE.


    HEY LOOK, CRAIG KIMBREL ONLY HAD A 2.3 WAR IN 2018!!!  HOW MANY GM'S AGREE WITH ROGER THAT KIMBREL IS JUST A HAIR BETTER THAN OMAR NARVAEZ?!?!?!?  


    MAYBE WAR IS JUST A BAD WAY TO EVALUATE CLOSERS.  DENNIS ECKERSLEY IN HIS CLOSING PEAK RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 3.3.  FOUR OF THOSE YEARS, ROGER WOULD CLAIM REYNALDO LOPEZ WAS SUPERIOR TO THE ECK BECAUSE OF HIS 3.1 WAR
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    rmapasad
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:05 pm

    Son of Ron wrote:For the record, though, my belief is that NEITHER Colome or Familia would be that necessary to acquire in 2019.


    *************************


    THEN WHY THE HELL DID YOU SUGGEST SIGNING HIM IN THE FIRST PLACE?!?!?!?!?


    THEN YOU WONDER WHY I GIVE YOU CRAP.  SO BLATANTLY OBVIOUS TO JUST INVENT STUFF TO DELIBERATELY DISAGREE WITH ME.


    LIKE YOUR OUTRIGHT NONSENSE OVER 2010 TO YOUR DECADE LOOK BLINDNESS TO MULTICOLINEARITY WHICH YOUR HERO PROVED I WAS 100% CORRECT.  ASSUMING THAT WAS ACTUALLY HIM COMING HERE, WHICH I DOUBT CONSIDERING HOW SOPHOMORIC HIS POSTS WHERE.


    HEY LOOK, CRAIG KIMBREL ONLY HAD A 2.3 WAR IN 2018!!!  HOW MANY GM'S AGREE WITH ROGER THAT KIMBREL IS JUST A HAIR BETTER THAN OMAR NARVAEZ?!?!?!?  


    MAYBE WAR IS JUST A BAD WAY TO EVALUATE CLOSERS.  DENNIS ECKERSLEY IN HIS CLOSING PEAK RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 3.3.  FOUR OF THOSE YEARS, ROGER WOULD CLAIM REYNALDO LOPEZ WAS SUPERIOR TO THE ECK BECAUSE OF HIS 3.1 WAR


    My exact quote was  "If the Sox are serious about competing in 2020-2021 why not sign free agents like Familia or Kimbrel on a three year deal ?" . Wasn't saying they should spend ANY money on a closer this year, but reality is they were bound and determined to get a Closer in 2019 so given that, why not also have him locked into 2021 which is a more realistic contention year ?  Plus by getting a Closer through free agency you don't have to give up anyone on the roster in trade.

    Not saying the Sox are stupid or to use your new favorite word "sophomoric" for this. Colome has ability - he's not a stiff. Nor are they losing anything more than an adequate Catcher in Narvaez. I just disagree with the Sox philosophy. They needed 30 more wins for a playoff spot in 2018 due to deficiencies of 17 wins by position players, 12 wins by starting pitching and 1 win by relief pitchers versus an average playoff team.  So while Narvaez isn't a critical loss, Colome isn't a critical gain.  Sox relief pitching wasn't all that bad in 2018 (league avg). Plus they have Nate Jones and Jace Frye who can close this year.



    I think it's unrealistic to gain 30 wins in 2019, or possibly even 2020.  Yet they make these 1-2 year commitments to Alfonso, Nova, McCann, and Colome who add a net

    $ 16-17 mi to payroll (after factoring out Shields departure). Plus they aren't guys the Sox will have on their roster in 2021-2022.  Yes, Sox have to find starters to eat IP so they don't have to rush up minor leaguers like they did Kopech.   Nova types make sense for that purpose, but again IMO,  free agency should be the preferred way to get them [size=16]than trading away younger talent.[/size]



    My philosophy is basically when you go rebuild, you're all in on that - take flyers on younger guys, scoop the waiver wires for them and hang onto to every guy 17 - 29 year old for as long as you can until they're either out of options or just flop.  Sometimes you get surprises like Indians did in Jose Ramirez or Dodgers did on Chris Taylor or Max Muncy.   But when you play win-now, go all-in on that. Spend big, trade aggressively for what you need, and make sure every hole possible is plugged.  It seems Sox go half-ass.  They don't spend enough or plug every hole when they play win-now (eg., 2011, 2016).. They get impatient with rebuilds as in 2013-2014 to play win now when they really weren't ready.  Are they doing the same thing now ?  I'm not really sure what they're up to this year.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:43 pm

    Son of Ron wrote:HEY LOOK, CRAIG KIMBREL ONLY HAD A 2.3 WAR IN 2018!!!  HOW MANY GM'S AGREE WITH ROGER THAT KIMBREL IS JUST A HAIR BETTER THAN OMAR NARVAEZ?!?!?!?  


    MAYBE WAR IS JUST A BAD WAY TO EVALUATE CLOSERS.  DENNIS ECKERSLEY IN HIS CLOSING PEAK RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 3.3.  FOUR OF THOSE YEARS, ROGER WOULD CLAIM REYNALDO LOPEZ WAS SUPERIOR TO THE ECK BECAUSE OF HIS 3.1 WAR


    You have a point and WAR doesn't account for the importance of the situations that Closers are in. It just measures linearly the Pitcher's contributions without distinguishing that outs are more critical in the 9th inning of a 1 run game than the 7th inning of a 5 run blowout.  One system, Win Probability Added, does measure game importance of each PA and that supports your point about Closers.  Kimbrel added 3.6 Wins above an average pitcher due to his 9th inning performances and that topped even the best Catcher (Realmuto) at 2.25 WPA.  Colome had a 1.7 WPA last year to Narvaez's 0 WPA, in other words league average in Win Expectancy.    Of course WPA has its flaws - it doesn't account for defense and only measures Win Probability at the time of the AB.   So a guy who hits a solo HR in the 4th inning may add only .20 win probability to his team at the time, but if the game winds up 1-0 WPA has under-rated what he did.  According to WPA, Hector Santiago at 1.29 WPA was Sox's most valuable reliever, same as Kenley Jensen (who blew Saves early in the year).   So it's best to look at both WAR to show theoretical player value in a "neutral" setting and combine it with WPA to see "game value".  
    But yes, Kimbrell was more valuable to game outcomes than Reynoldo Lopez (or Omar Narvaez). So I admit to being wrong in using WAR as an absolute measuring stick for value here.
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    alohafri
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    Re: What does Alonso mean?

    Post by alohafri on Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:56 am

    to use your new favorite word "sophomoric"


    He got a "Word a Day" calendar for Christmas. Tomorrow's word is "spell".

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