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    About Garcia now batting 2

    Post by Guest on Sun Mar 18, 2018 10:31 am

    U
    Looks like Renteria is also dismissing the bad math and believing what is eyes are telling him which is that Avisail Garcia is evolving into an on base machine

    Amazing how this lucky ground ball hits keep coming and coming and coming

    Let’s just pray Garcia gives the White Sox a hometown discount.  Not sure if OUR White Sox will give THE MAN Altuve type money.

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    Re: About Garcia now batting 2

    Post by al in cal on Sun Mar 18, 2018 1:14 pm

    Garcia hitting 2nd is smart. He can hit behind the runner and is becoming a much more disciplined hitter with good power. He also is pretty fast and fast enough to score from first on a double.
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    Re: About Garcia now batting 2

    Post by alohafri on Sun Mar 18, 2018 1:40 pm

    al in cal wrote:Garcia hitting 2nd is smart. He can hit behind the runner and is becoming a much more disciplined hitter with good power. He also is pretty fast and fast enough to score from first on a double.

    Welcome back. Now, if only Garcia can hustle so he doesn't get benched.

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    Re: About Garcia now batting 2

    Post by Guest on Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:15 am

    alohafri wrote:
    al in cal wrote:Garcia hitting 2nd is smart. He can hit behind the runner and is becoming a much more disciplined hitter with good power. He also is pretty fast and fast enough to score from first on a double.

    Welcome back. Now, if only Garcia can hustle so he doesn't get benched.


    ANOTHER ONE THAT DOESN'T LISTEN TO THE HAWK!!!!!!!


    PLAY THE TAPES FROM LAST YEAR!!!!!


    NOBODY WORKS HARDER OR HUSTLES MORE!!!!!!


    GARCIA IS A SEVEN TOOL SUPERSTAR!!!!!!


    OUR WHITE SOX JUST LOST AT LEAST $50MIL BY NOT EXTENDING HIM THIS WINTER!!!!!


    THE KARK IS TOO YOUNG TO REMEMBER ROBERTO CLEMENTE PLAYING.


    THANKS TO AVISAIL GARCIA, I DON'T HAVE TO

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    Re: About Garcia now batting 2

    Post by Guest on Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:17 am

    al in cal wrote:Garcia hitting 2nd is smart. He can hit behind the runner and is becoming a much more disciplined hitter with good power. He also is pretty fast and fast enough to score from first on a double.



    GREAT TO HAVE YOU BACK AL!!!!!


    What is your opinion of making Yolmer Sanchez the everyday 2B and moving Yoan Moncada to 3B?
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    rmapasad
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    Re: About Garcia now batting 2

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Mar 20, 2018 12:47 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    ANOTHER ONE THAT DOESN'T LISTEN TO THE HAWK!!!!!!!
    PLAY THE TAPES FROM LAST YEAR!!!!!
    NOBODY WORKS HARDER OR HUSTLES MORE!!!!!!
    GARCIA IS A SEVEN TOOL SUPERSTAR!!!!!!
    OUR WHITE SOX JUST LOST AT LEAST $50MIL BY NOT EXTENDING HIM THIS WINTER!!!!!
    THE KARK IS TOO YOUNG TO REMEMBER ROBERTO CLEMENTE PLAYING.
    THANKS TO AVISAIL GARCIA, I DON'T HAVE TO

    LOL.  Your about-face on Garcia from a year ago is now complete.  Clemente ???
    Comparing Avi Garcia, who's never at any point in his career managed to be an  even an average defensive OFer to the greatest defensive RFer of all time is beyond ridiculous.  
    Speaking of a White Sox with legitimately good defense though, I am impressed with Yolmer this spring who has cut down his K's to 1 in 8 PA's.  That kind of thing, coupled with his speed to beat out IF hits, might help him manage to hit .275 or better which would be enough offense to justify his existence. Hopefully he can keep his K level that low in the regular season.

    Roberto Clemente's success is very explainable. In his early career, he was a low K guy (10-12%) and he was a classic line drive hitter. We know 70 % + of line drives go for hits.   Later in his career, Clemente increased the K's but he also upped the HR's (his HR's increased 19 one year).  This is classic .300 hitter stuff.

    But now look at Avi Garcia.  Instead of decreasing K's this spring Avi
    [size=16][size=18]has increased his K rate to [size=16][size=18]Davidson's level (27%).  Instead of walking more as he did in 2nd half '17, Avi is back to walking rarely.   Instead of more HR power, he's shown less. Sure, his BA is still high but is hitting more line drives ?  Maybe.   Maybe he creates a whole new category of .300 hitter that has never been seen before.  Strikes out 20-25%, hits only 15-20 HR's, average % of line drives, somewhat above avg. speed but no burner like Ichiro.  Maybe Avi will make history with this approach.  Remains to be seen.

    [/size][/size] 








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    Re: About Garcia now batting 2

    Post by alohafri on Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:11 am

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    ANOTHER ONE THAT DOESN'T LISTEN TO THE HAWK!!!!!!!
    PLAY THE TAPES FROM LAST YEAR!!!!!
    NOBODY WORKS HARDER OR HUSTLES MORE!!!!!!
    GARCIA IS A SEVEN TOOL SUPERSTAR!!!!!!
    OUR WHITE SOX JUST LOST AT LEAST $50MIL BY NOT EXTENDING HIM THIS WINTER!!!!!
    THE KARK IS TOO YOUNG TO REMEMBER ROBERTO CLEMENTE PLAYING.
    THANKS TO AVISAIL GARCIA, I DON'T HAVE TO

    LOL.  Your about-face on Garcia from a year ago is now complete.  Clemente ???
    Comparing Avi Garcia, who's never at any point in his career managed to be an  even an average defensive OFer to the greatest defensive RFer of all time is beyond ridiculous.  
    Speaking of a White Sox with legitimately good defense though, I am impressed with Yolmer this spring who has cut down his K's to 1 in 8 PA's.  That kind of thing, coupled with his speed to beat out IF hits, might help him manage to hit .275 or better which would be enough offense to justify his existence. Hopefully he can keep his K level that low in the regular season.

    Roberto Clemente's success is very explainable. In his early career, he was a low K guy (10-12%) and he was a classic line drive hitter. We know 70 % + of line drives go for hits.   Later in his career, Clemente increased the K's but he also upped the HR's (his HR's increased 19 one year).  This is classic .300 hitter stuff.

    But now look at Avi Garcia.  Instead of decreasing K's this spring Avi
    [size=16][size=18]has increased his K rate to [size=16][size=18]Davidson's level (27%).  Instead of walking more as he did in 2nd half '17, Avi is back to walking rarely.   Instead of more HR power, he's shown less. Sure, his BA is still high but is hitting more line drives ?  Maybe.   Maybe he creates a whole new category of .300 hitter that has never been seen before.  Strikes out 20-25%, hits only 15-20 HR's, average % of line drives, somewhat above avg. speed but no burner like Ichiro.  Maybe Avi will make history with this approach.  Remains to be seen.

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    I was hoping it was sarcasm.

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    Re: About Garcia now batting 2

    Post by Guest on Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:54 am

    I just love how Mr Bad Math is using spring stats to predict the demise of Garcia.

    Seriously, this guy is too stupid to realuse he also reversed from last spring.  The difference is that Garcia actually proved the naysayers wrong

    Speaking of wrong, never forget that Mr Bad Math got Garcia 2nd half completely wrong.  And he is using the same bad math, this time with spring stats.

    What a complete arrogant ignorant ass

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    Re: About Garcia now batting 2

    Post by Guest on Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:56 am

    Yes Kev, it was sarcasm 

    Unless it proves true, then I knew it all the time

    geek

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    Re: About Garcia now batting 2

    Post by al in cal on Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:20 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    al in cal wrote:Garcia hitting 2nd is smart. He can hit behind the runner and is becoming a much more disciplined hitter with good power. He also is pretty fast and fast enough to score from first on a double.



    GREAT TO HAVE YOU BACK AL!!!!!


    What is your opinion of making Yolmer Sanchez the everyday 2B and moving Yoan Moncada to 3B?

        I think it makes sense, Kark. I like Sanchez a lot as a grit guy and Moncada is likely to grow more and be too big to be a 2nd baseman. 3rd looks like a good landing spot for him as well as a middle of the line-up hitter down the road. My concerns for this team, though, are more with the OF and the lack of left handed power hitting.

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    Re: About Garcia now batting 2

    Post by al in cal on Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:30 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    ANOTHER ONE THAT DOESN'T LISTEN TO THE HAWK!!!!!!!
    PLAY THE TAPES FROM LAST YEAR!!!!!
    NOBODY WORKS HARDER OR HUSTLES MORE!!!!!!
    GARCIA IS A SEVEN TOOL SUPERSTAR!!!!!!
    OUR WHITE SOX JUST LOST AT LEAST $50MIL BY NOT EXTENDING HIM THIS WINTER!!!!!
    THE KARK IS TOO YOUNG TO REMEMBER ROBERTO CLEMENTE PLAYING.
    THANKS TO AVISAIL GARCIA, I DON'T HAVE TO

    LOL.  Your about-face on Garcia from a year ago is now complete.  Clemente ???
    Comparing Avi Garcia, who's never at any point in his career managed to be an  even an average defensive OFer to the greatest defensive RFer of all time is beyond ridiculous.  
    Speaking of a White Sox with legitimately good defense though, I am impressed with Yolmer this spring who has cut down his K's to 1 in 8 PA's.  That kind of thing, coupled with his speed to beat out IF hits, might help him manage to hit .275 or better which would be enough offense to justify his existence. Hopefully he can keep his K level that low in the regular season.

    Roberto Clemente's success is very explainable. In his early career, he was a low K guy (10-12%) and he was a classic line drive hitter. We know 70 % + of line drives go for hits.   Later in his career, Clemente increased the K's but he also upped the HR's (his HR's increased 19 one year).  This is classic .300 hitter stuff.

    But now look at Avi Garcia.  Instead of decreasing K's this spring Avi
    [size=16][size=18]has increased his K rate to [size=16][size=18]Davidson's level (27%).  Instead of walking more as he did in 2nd half '17, Avi is back to walking rarely.   Instead of more HR power, he's shown less. Sure, his BA is still high but is hitting more line drives ?  Maybe.   Maybe he creates a whole new category of .300 hitter that has never been seen before.  Strikes out 20-25%, hits only 15-20 HR's, average % of line drives, somewhat above avg. speed but no burner like Ichiro.  Maybe Avi will make history with this approach.  Remains to be seen.

    [/size][/size] 
      I consider Clemente one of the greatest five tool players of all time and do not consider Garcia anywhere in his class. But then again, there are no current major league players in Clemente's class today. I do like Garcia, though. He has really come a long way as a major league player and is the key player in their entire offense next to Abreu. Putting him in front of Abreu is a very good move in that he should get a lot of fastballs to hit. My concern is who is going to hit behind Abreu and protect him in the line-up. Their major weakness right now offensively is the lack of a left handed hitting bat. They are way too much dependent on right handed hitting, particularly power bats.







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    rmapasad
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    Re: About Garcia now batting 2

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:24 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:I just love how Mr Bad Math is using spring stats to predict the demise of Garcia.

    Seriously, this guy is too stupid to realuse he also reversed from last spring.  The difference is that Garcia actually proved the naysayers wrong

    Speaking of wrong, never forget that Mr Bad Math got Garcia 2nd half completely wrong.  And he is using the same bad math, this time with spring stats.

    What a complete arrogant ignorant ass

    Ignorant ?   Fuck you.

    There is no bad math.  It's just SIMPLE MATH.   Avi struck out 20 times per 100 Ab's leaving him 80 ab's to get hits.  With 4 HR's per 100 AB's he needs 28 "other hits" to get the .320 Bat Avg you claim he could easily get this year.  SIMPLE MATH.  A fourth grader could calculate that the 28 more hits he needs off 76 remaining non-HR AB's is a Bat Avg. of .368 on those non-HR balls in play.  

    Here's the best BA's of non-HR balls in play in the history of baseball:
    Ty Cobb .356,  Shoeless Joe .345,  Willie Keeler ("hit 'em where they ain't) .338, Tris Speaker .333.

    Yes, Avi hit .420 off his balls in play in 2nd half and .371 in the first half. So he's pulled off the Houdini act.  

    I watched his hitting style closely at Dodger Stadium last year.  He's aggressive, uses the whole field, and his ball comes off the bat harder than it seemed to in the past but not with big HR power.  That can account for his better results to be sure.   But to go from schlub (which he was from 2014-2016) to getting hits from  balls in play at a better rate than Cobb or Shoeless Joe is hard to fathom.  

    It appears from this spring that Avi is even more aggressive considering his higher K rate and lower BB rate than the 2nd half last year.  That could signal more power and his 7 doubles might indicate that too.  But Spring Training is just Spring Training, and it remains to be seen what happens when the real season starts. 

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    Re: About Garcia now batting 2

    Post by Guest on Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:41 am

    Al in Cal Writes:

      I consider Clemente one of the greatest five tool players of all time and do not consider Garcia anywhere in his class. But then again, there are no current major league players in Clemente's class today. I do like Garcia, though. He has really come a long way as a major league player and is the key player in their entire offense next to Abreu. Putting him in front of Abreu is a very good move in that he should get a lot of fastballs to hit. My concern is who is going to hit behind Abreu and protect him in the line-up. Their major weakness right now offensively is the lack of a left handed hitting bat. They are way too much dependent on right handed hitting, particularly power bats.


    **************


    Al,


    Kevin had it right, Garcia = Clemente was sarcasm


    Right on about the big lefty bat.  One of the reasons I was rooting for Dan Palka to beat out Matt Davidson.  Right now, all they have is Delmonico.  However, where does he play once Jiminez is up?  I hope they don't do something stupid like trading Garcia.

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    Re: About Garcia now batting 2

    Post by Guest on Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:47 am

    roger writes

     Maybe he creates a whole new category of .300 hitter that has never been seen before.


    *******************


    WHY NOT


    IF YOU CAN INVENT A CORRELATION COEFFICIENT THAT ISN'T TAUGHT IN ANY TEXTBOOK....


    GEE, YOU WOULD THINK AN HONEST ADULT WOULD HAVE LOOKED UP THE PROPER WAY TO MEASURE CORRELATION.


    GEE, YOU THINK AN HONEST ADULT WOULD HAVE ADMITTED TO MAKING AN OBVIOUS MISTAKE INSTEAD OF DOUBLING DOWN ON WHAT IS OBVIOUSLY INCORRECT.


    BUT WHAT I REALLY WHAT TO KNOW IS IF YOUR CORRELATION METHOD IS THE SAME AS WHAT TANGO USES,  THAT WOULD PROVE HE IS THE HACK I ALWAYS CLAIMED.  OR WAS IT A PRODUCT OF YOUR OWN IMAGINATION AND YOU JUST IMPLIED THIS WAS KNOWN IN THE SABERMETRIC COMMUNITY.  THAT WOULD PROVE MY CLAIMS OF YOUR LACK OF INTELLECTUAL INTEGRITY AS WELL AS YOUR BAD MATH.
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    Re: About Garcia now batting 2

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:01 pm

    BUT WHAT I REALLY WHAT TO KNOW IS IF YOUR CORRELATION METHOD IS THE SAME AS WHAT TANGO USES,  THAT WOULD PROVE HE IS THE HACK I ALWAYS CLAIMED.  OR WAS IT A PRODUCT OF YOUR OWN IMAGINATION AND YOU JUST IMPLIED THIS WAS KNOWN IN THE SABERMETRIC COMMUNITY.  THAT WOULD PROVE MY CLAIMS OF YOUR LACK OF INTELLECTUAL INTEGRITY AS WELL AS YOUR BAD MATH.>>


    The "correlation method" I used was increase of OBP and Slug versus increases in Run Expectancies which is fundamentally the same method Tango used.  Here's the link.
    http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/why_does_17obpslg_make_sense/



    Tango compared the increase in OBP and Slug for each event and then compared it to the increase in Run Values.  Which is exactly the method I used.  The difference is he ran a regression, which I don't know how to do, so his method was far more efficient.  I used a tedious task of calculating run values for each event v. Slug/OBP increases  on an Excel spreadsheet, and found fundamentally the same thing.

    Look at the Comments section and you'll see how Tango was critiqued by the others.  These guys can't, unlike your crazy assertions, get away with shoddy work and not be called on it.

    I've listed links to all the studies below.   The first long one is particularly important because it says that the point is NOT that OBP is more important than Slug but rather because of the way the two stats are calculated that Slug points increase at a disproportionate % v. OBP points when compared to their Run Values.  I proved that in my examples, and that is the entire point. An adjustment helps bring the equation into proper balance rather than OBP+SLug.
    Here from an article that explains the exact sort of thing:
    " a home run is not equal in value to four singles (a home run is actually usually worth about three). OPS was supposed to improve on this, but still implies the wrong weights."


    I am tired of this topic.  I made one mistake in the 7 or 8 arguments I advanced. I asked if OBP and Slug aren't validly supposed to be used together, then why is it OK to use OBP* Slug ?  Once you said there was a difference in multiplying v. adding variables in a correlation, I admitted that I haven't taken advanced stat courses and withdrew that question.  But this was the LEAST IMPORTANT of all the 7 or 8 issues raised and most of all, it was IRRELEVANT to all my other points.


    So this is basically all you are hanging your hat on.  That and this arcane stat you used which I've never seen anybody else use - some BB v. EB-singles comparison . [size=18][size=18]I could hurl the same "bad math" accusation at you with regard to this oddball thing you used to allegedly "prove" multicolinearity. 

    The studies clearly show how distinctly OBP and Slug movements can be measured from each other.
    Instead of calling everyone (myself and the researchers) names, which is only persuasive to you, read the fucking studies.  Here are the links.[/size][/size]



    https://books.google.com/books?id=ckMYAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA164&lpg=PA164&dq=1.8+times+on+base+percentage&source=bl&ots=i7h0FXJqhJ&sig=ZJwO9TfYEWsihlbcoEuoM7M4xHY&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi99fec5oDaAhVO6mMKHZ5wAE44ChDoAQg9MAQ#v=onepage&q=1.8%20times%20on%20base%20percentage&f=false



    http://philbirnbaum.com/slgcorrection.pdf


    http://cybermetric.blogspot.com/2011/10/ops-vs-18obp-slg.html



    http://sabr.org/cmsFiles/Files/btn2006-081.pdf    (have to scroll down a bit for the Victor Wong study)

    https://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/obp/



    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/avgobpslg-in-an-age-of-woba/



    https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/users/aldous/157/Old_Projects/moy.pdf

    (he finds OBP is 2 * Slug)


    https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/9/18/9329763/separate-but-not-quite-equal-why-ops-is-a-bad-statistic

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