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    More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by Guest on Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:54 pm

    Joel Reuter, writer for the Bleacher Report, and as far as I can tell, doesn't come anywhere near the math background I have writes that Avisail Garcia's average can literally drop 80 - 100 points as the luck even outs


    WRONG.


    First of all, a 100 point drop puts Garcia at 230 which would be the worse year of his career.  Something I would consider highly unlikely considering he is at the age where ball players start putting up peak numbers


    Second, as I have shown over and over and over again, Garcia has had a consistent BABIP to BA differential of 60.  Meaning his BA is driving his BABIP, not the other way around.


    Third, people who never eve heard of BABIP kinda figure that Garcia going from 245 - 330 has to have some over achievement in it.  so this bullshit stat ain't telling us nothing we hadn't figured already.


    The KARK is so damn sick of these phony stat geeks with limited math knowledge vomiting their ignorance and passing it off as some kind of expert opinion.


    If you know anything about math, you should that what is considered luck only evens out in the long run.  Meaning, a run of good luck is not the harbinger of a run of bad luck and vice versa.  Meaning there is no magically mathematically force that is going to change Garcia back into the hitter we saw in 2016


    Anybody that watched Avisail Garcia play last year can see that he legitimately improved as a ballplayer.  Not only that he truly turned himself into a student of the game.


    and let's not forget that all the phony experts and their bad math claimed last year Garcia was a first half fluke only to see Garcia hit even better in the 2nd half.  Maybe instead focusing on some bullshit stat, maybe people should notice that over 50% of Garcia's walks came after August 1st.  His BB/K ratio  went from 5K for ever walk before his midseason injury to 2K for every walk after his injury.  this was not luck.  this was a man showing he learned how to hit.  Garcia explained this numerous times in interviews.  But we are suppose to believe some asshole with a calculator drinking cheap beer as he writes his blog.


    Can't wait to see the excuses the bad math crowd comes up with  6 months from now when Garcia is hitting 320
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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:15 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Joel Reuter, writer for the Bleacher Report, and as far as I can tell, doesn't come anywhere near the math background I have writes that Avisail Garcia's average can literally drop 80 - 100 points as the luck even outs


    WRONG.


    First of all, a 100 point drop puts Garcia at 230 which would be the worse year of his career.  Something I would consider highly unlikely considering he is at the age where ball players start putting up peak numbers


    Second, as I have shown over and over and over again, Garcia has had a consistent BABIP to BA differential of 60.  Meaning his BA is driving his BABIP, not the other way around.


    Third, people who never eve heard of BABIP kinda figure that Garcia going from 245 - 330 has to have some over achievement in it.  so this bullshit stat ain't telling us nothing we hadn't figured already.


    The KARK is so damn sick of these phony stat geeks with limited math knowledge vomiting their ignorance and passing it off as some kind of expert opinion.


    If you know anything about math, you should that what is considered luck only evens out in the long run.  Meaning, a run of good luck is not the harbinger of a run of bad luck and vice versa.  Meaning there is no magically mathematically force that is going to change Garcia back into the hitter we saw in 2016


    Anybody that watched Avisail Garcia play last year can see that he legitimately improved as a ballplayer.  Not only that he truly turned himself into a student of the game.


    and let's not forget that all the phony experts and their bad math claimed last year Garcia was a first half fluke only to see Garcia hit even better in the 2nd half.  Maybe instead focusing on some bullshit stat, maybe people should notice that over 50% of Garcia's walks came after August 1st.  His BB/K ratio  went from 5K for ever walk before his midseason injury to 2K for every walk after his injury.  this was not luck.  this was a man showing he learned how to hit.  Garcia explained this numerous times in interviews.  But we are suppose to believe some asshole with a calculator drinking cheap beer as he writes his blog.


    Can't wait to see the excuses the bad math crowd comes up with  6 months from now when Garcia is hitting 320

    Garcia's high BABIP is from his .362 groundball BA.  The highest GB BA of any player over 1000 ab's is .320 (Mike Trout) and the next closest is Altuve at .296.  Avi Garcia's career GB rate is .271.   But it was only .206 in 2016 and .217 in 2015.

    So all kinds of possibilities given last yr's numbers (518 abs, 171 hits... 213 GB's - 77 GB hits)

    Give him Trout's .320 GB BA, which then changes his overall BA to .313... still very good
    Give him his Career .271 GB BA, his overall BA is now .291... still good
    Give him the AL Leag. Avg of .248 GB BA and his overall BA is .283...still decent
    Give him his 2015/2016 GB avg. of .210 and his overall BA is  .267.. So/so but better than 2016/2015

    So the most pessimistic projection would be a .267 BA - the most optimistic about .313.  The dead center of that range is .290... Which means, as you said, he made meaningful improvements as a hitter - fewer K's, fewer popups, more harder hit balls, more power all of which contribute to better BA and a higher OPS (his ISO went up 36 pts).

    The only area he didn't improve overall was his BB rate, but as noted, he did jump that to 8% in the second half.  So bottom line, let's say he hits .290/.350/.490 which means both his BB rate and HR power increase some. This is not an outlandish projection, and it would be great if he didn't need a super-high GB average in order to have a mid 800's or better OPS.




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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:12 pm

    let's say he hits .290/.350/.490 which means both his BB rate and HR power increase some. This is not an outlandish projection, and it would be great if he didn't need a super-high GB average in order to have a mid 800's or better OPS.>>

    I've looked at 5 different projections for Garcia that range from 776 to 797 OPS's so my speculation that 840 was not out of the question seems to be very optimistic by comparison. While I think the projectors are correct in saying his BA will drop none seem to think that Avi's power or plate discipline will increase.  To say that a 27 year old won't increase his power could be overly pessimistic. 

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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by Guest on Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:22 am

    I've looked at 5 different projections for Garcia


    *************


    As I told you b4, these projections are nothing more but glorified weighted averages.  There is nothing special about them.  Find me one projection from a year ago that had Garcia batting 330.  To claim none of these projections THINK Garcia will increase power or walks proves nothing except the limitations of the math.  For you to use the word THINK illustrates your lack of understanding.  Forecast models don't THINK.  Again, its a glorified weighted average of the past.  So if you never did it b4, a forecast will not predict it unless the forecaster deliberately puts it in.


    If you actually thought about the problem instead of thinking how you can disagree with me, you'd notice all these projections are splitting the difference between 2016 and 2017.  Common sense dictates there is a chance 2017 is now his new level of productivity.  Conversely, its also quite possible that 2017 was a fluke.  If you understood math, you'd quickly notice not one of these forecasts are picking either extreme.  Why?  Like I said, glorified weighted average.  So slice and dice the numbers all you want.  Its all meaningless mathematical masterbation.

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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by Guest on Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:30 am

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:Joel Reuter, writer for the Bleacher Report, and as far as I can tell, doesn't come anywhere near the math background I have writes that Avisail Garcia's average can literally drop 80 - 100 points as the luck even outs


    WRONG.


    First of all, a 100 point drop puts Garcia at 230 which would be the worse year of his career.  Something I would consider highly unlikely considering he is at the age where ball players start putting up peak numbers


    Second, as I have shown over and over and over again, Garcia has had a consistent BABIP to BA differential of 60.  Meaning his BA is driving his BABIP, not the other way around.


    Third, people who never eve heard of BABIP kinda figure that Garcia going from 245 - 330 has to have some over achievement in it.  so this bullshit stat ain't telling us nothing we hadn't figured already.


    The KARK is so damn sick of these phony stat geeks with limited math knowledge vomiting their ignorance and passing it off as some kind of expert opinion.


    If you know anything about math, you should that what is considered luck only evens out in the long run.  Meaning, a run of good luck is not the harbinger of a run of bad luck and vice versa.  Meaning there is no magically mathematically force that is going to change Garcia back into the hitter we saw in 2016


    Anybody that watched Avisail Garcia play last year can see that he legitimately improved as a ballplayer.  Not only that he truly turned himself into a student of the game.


    and let's not forget that all the phony experts and their bad math claimed last year Garcia was a first half fluke only to see Garcia hit even better in the 2nd half.  Maybe instead focusing on some bullshit stat, maybe people should notice that over 50% of Garcia's walks came after August 1st.  His BB/K ratio  went from 5K for ever walk before his midseason injury to 2K for every walk after his injury.  this was not luck.  this was a man showing he learned how to hit.  Garcia explained this numerous times in interviews.  But we are suppose to believe some asshole with a calculator drinking cheap beer as he writes his blog.


    Can't wait to see the excuses the bad math crowd comes up with  6 months from now when Garcia is hitting 320

    Garcia's high BABIP is from his .362 groundball BA.  The highest GB BA of any player over 1000 ab's is .320 (Mike Trout) and the next closest is Altuve at .296.  Avi Garcia's career GB rate is .271.   But it was only .206 in 2016 and .217 in 2015.

    So all kinds of possibilities given last yr's numbers (518 abs, 171 hits... 213 GB's - 77 GB hits)

    Give him Trout's .320 GB BA, which then changes his overall BA to .313... still very good
    Give him his Career .271 GB BA, his overall BA is now .291... still good
    Give him the AL Leag. Avg of .248 GB BA and his overall BA is .283...still decent
    Give him his 2015/2016 GB avg. of .210 and his overall BA is  .267.. So/so but better than 2016/2015

    So the most pessimistic projection would be a .267 BA - the most optimistic about .313.  The dead center of that range is .290... Which means, as you said, he made meaningful improvements as a hitter - fewer K's, fewer popups, more harder hit balls, more power all of which contribute to better BA and a higher OPS (his ISO went up 36 pts).

    The only area he didn't improve overall was his BB rate, but as noted, he did jump that to 8% in the second half.  So bottom line, let's say he hits .290/.350/.490 which means both his BB rate and HR power increase some. This is not an outlandish projection, and it would be great if he didn't need a super-high GB average in order to have a mid 800's or better OPS.


    More lucky groundball bullshit


    Only an idiot thinks the ratio of groundballs, linedrives and flyballs remains constant year after year after year


    And let's never forget how last year Garcia hit better in the second half, which was a complete contradiction of all your BABIP lucky groundball BS claims of the first half.

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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by Guest on Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:51 am

    I will not phrase it as crassly as Deplorable Mark.  It seems to me that rmapasad is claiming that Avisail Garcia will not hit over 300 in 2018 because he never did it before 2017.  Yet last year at this time, he correctly claimed Garcia could vastly improve as a hitter despite never having been much of a hitter.  Using the oft cited example of last spring, Jose Guillen; the year after the break out, Guillen only lost 17 points in batting average, 7 points in OBP and a whopping 72 in SLG (569 - 497)  So if Jose Guillen kept 99% of his on base ability, why can't Avisail Garcia?  The loss of power should not be a problem since all those groundball hits are mostly singles.  It does appear that rmapasad is not staying consistent with the arguments he made a year ago
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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:59 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:As I told you b4, these projections are nothing more but glorified weighted averages.  There is nothing special about them.  Find me one projection from a year ago that had Garcia batting 330.  To claim none of these projections THINK Garcia will increase power or walks proves nothing except the limitations of the math.  For you to use the word THINK illustrates your lack of understanding.  Forecast models don't THINK.  Again, its a glorified weighted average of the past.  So if you never did it b4, a forecast will not predict it unless the forecaster deliberately puts it in.

    If you actually thought about the problem instead of thinking how you can disagree with me, you'd notice all these projections are splitting the difference between 2016 and 2017.  Common sense dictates there is a chance 2017 is now his new level of productivity.  Conversely, its also quite possible that 2017 was a fluke.  If you understood math, you'd quickly notice not one of these forecasts are picking either extreme.  Why?  Like I said, glorified weighted average.  So slice and dice the numbers all you want.  Its all meaningless mathematical masterbation.

    Of course no one saw Garcia's 2017 coming, you included.  I thought his power (ISO) could increase some and at least that was a correct call.  But to say a guy whose highest BA in a full big league season was .257 should suddenly hit .330 is not a logical prediction.
    Yes, most 2018 predictors seem to split 2016 and 2017 weighing 2017 a bit more.
    IMO, it's not quite THAT simple. They're projecting a high but more realistic BABIP (340-345) which yields a .280.285 BA, then tacking on 50-60 pts over BA for OBP and 165 pts over BA for Slugging and viola, they get .283/.338/.448 = .781 OPS.  

    But there's one more twist. Forecasts seems to expect power numbers (which reached an alltime high in 2017) to come down this year.   ZIPS has 80% of last year's top 20 hitters losing OPS this year and by an average of 70 points per guy.  So Garcia is hardly alone in the expectation that 2017 was a peak year.

    Given that bias, they don't expect Garcia to increase his 176 ISO, and most look to him to decrease that slightly.  That may be overly pessimistic.  If a guy bumps his power by 36 pts at age 26, bumping it another 30-40 pts at age 27 is not out of the question. But no one is going out on the limb and predicting a 200 ISO . Nor is anyone taking his 8-9 % walk rate of the second half and predicting a 70 pt spread of OBP-BA.

    So if you take those two components and add them to a .285 BA, you get
    285/355/485 = 840 OPS which I will say once more, is not an outlandish prediction.
    What about the possibility of a collapse to near 2016 levels ?  Not impossible either, but I think he's made too much progress to go that far back. 

    I hope he can increase his power and plate discipline.  That way his value doesn't become so ultra-dependant on BA, which can be a fickle thing. 


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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:10 pm

    Mr Modelo wrote:I will not phrase it as crassly as Deplorable Mark.  It seems to me that rmapasad is claiming that Avisail Garcia will not hit over 300 in 2018 because he never did it before 2017.  Yet last year at this time, he correctly claimed Garcia could vastly improve as a hitter despite never having been much of a hitter.  Using the oft cited example of last spring, Jose Guillen; the year after the break out, Guillen only lost 17 points in batting average, 7 points in OBP and a whopping 72 in SLG (569 - 497)  So if Jose Guillen kept 99% of his on base ability, why can't Avisail Garcia?  The loss of power should not be a problem since all those groundball hits are mostly singles.  It does appear that rmapasad is not staying consistent with the arguments he made a year ago

    Interesting points, and I'd like to think I'm consistent because my main focus, like last year, is still on his power.  I thought at age 26 he could increase his power and think at age 27 he could still keep adding more to his power.  Plus, it's possible to add to his OBP by more walks.

    But yes, I do believe it will be tough for him to keep hitting .300 +.   Because he strikes out too much (20%).  Jose Abreu also strikes out at the 20% level but he hits .300+ because his ISO power is 224.  More HR's help the Bat Avg.  Avi's ISO was only 176, and he needs to keep improving that to 200+ .  Again, the power is key for him.





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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by Guest on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:02 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:As I told you b4, these projections are nothing more but glorified weighted averages.  There is nothing special about them.  Find me one projection from a year ago that had Garcia batting 330.  To claim none of these projections THINK Garcia will increase power or walks proves nothing except the limitations of the math.  For you to use the word THINK illustrates your lack of understanding.  Forecast models don't THINK.  Again, its a glorified weighted average of the past.  So if you never did it b4, a forecast will not predict it unless the forecaster deliberately puts it in.

    If you actually thought about the problem instead of thinking how you can disagree with me, you'd notice all these projections are splitting the difference between 2016 and 2017.  Common sense dictates there is a chance 2017 is now his new level of productivity.  Conversely, its also quite possible that 2017 was a fluke.  If you understood math, you'd quickly notice not one of these forecasts are picking either extreme.  Why?  Like I said, glorified weighted average.  So slice and dice the numbers all you want.  Its all meaningless mathematical masterbation.

    Of course no one saw Garcia's 2017 coming, you included.  AND I ADMITTED IT BY WEEK 3.  I thought his power (ISO) could increase some and at least that was a correct call.  But to say a guy whose highest BA in a full big league season was .257 should suddenly hit .330 is not a logical prediction.
    Yes, most 2018 predictors seem to split 2016 and 2017 weighing 2017 a bit more.
    IMO, it's not quite THAT simple. They're projecting a high but more realistic BABIP (340-345) which yields a .280.285 BA,

    AMAZING HOW THE FORECASTORS ARE PREDICTING A 60 POINT DIFFERENCE!!!!!  JUST LIKE THE KARK SAID.  BABIP IS A FUNCTION OF THE MATH.  IT DOES NOT DRIVE BATTING AVERAGE.  IT IS DRIVEN BY IT

    then tacking on 50-60 pts over BA for OBP and 165 pts over BA for Slugging and viola, they get .283/.338/.448 = .781 OPS.  

    But there's one more twist. Forecasts seems to expect power numbers (which reached an alltime high in 2017) to come down this year.

    WHY IS THIS A TWIST?!?!?!?!  ITS SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.  JUST LIKE I SAID!!!!!

       ZIPS has 80% of last year's top 20 hitters losing OPS this year and by an average of 70 points per guy.  So Garcia is hardly alone in the expectation that 2017 was a peak year.

    AGAIN, FUNCTION OF THE MATH!!!!  LINEAR EQUATION HAVE A TENDENCY TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE AVERAGE.  HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO EXPLAIN THIS?  THERE IS NOTHING MYSTICAL ABOUT THESE FORECASTS


    Given that bias, they don't expect Garcia to increase his 176 ISO, and most look to him to decrease that slightly.  That may be overly pessimistic.  If a guy bumps his power by 36 pts at age 26, bumping it another 30-40 pts at age 27 is not out of the question. But no one is going out on the limb and predicting a 200 ISO . Nor is anyone taking his 8-9 % walk rate of the second half and predicting a 70 pt spread of OBP-BA.

    So if you take those two components and add them to a .285 BA, you get
    285/355/485 = 840 OPS which I will say once more, is not an outlandish prediction.

    AND ITS STILL JUST SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2016 AND 2017.  OK, MAYBE THAT IS THE SAFE AND SANE SPOT TO PROJECT FROM, BUT YOU DON'T SPOT THERE.  YOU HAVE TO INSIST THAT ANY EXPECTATION THAT 2017 IS GARCIA'S NEW LEVEL IS NOT LOGICAL.  THEN GIVE SILLY MATH PROBLEM AS IF THEY ARE SOME KIND OF PROOF.  AS IF MAKING UP NUMBERS LIKE YOU ALWAYS DO IS ANY KIND OF PROOF

    What about the possibility of a collapse to near 2016 levels ?  Not impossible either, but I think he's made too much progress to go that far back.

    ONE CAN HOPE.  I'M SEEING 320BA WITH 60 WALKS.  BUT THAT MIGHT BE DYSLEXIC FOR 260 BA 32 WALKS

    I hope he can increase his power and plate discipline.  That way his value doesn't become so ultra-dependant on BA, which can be a fickle thing.     

    IF YOU ACTUALLY WATCH THE GAMES AND LISTEN TO THE HAWK INSTEAD OF READING BAD MATH, I'D UNDERSTAND THAT GARCIA MADE A CONSCIENCE EFFORT TO CHANGE HIS APPROACH AT THE PLATE AND GO UP THE MIDDLE AND GO WITH THE PITCH MORE.  THAT IS WHY HE HIT 330.  NOT THIS LUCKY GROUNDBALL BULLSHIT.  THE REAL DANGER IS GARCIA GOING BACK TO BAD HABITS.  NOT SOME MATHEMATICAL MUMBO JUMBO.


    PS HIS K/BB RATIO GOING FROM 5/1 B4 HIS INJURY TO 2/1 AFTER THE INJURY IS ALSO KEY.  GARCIA RETURNED AFTER THE TRADES OF FRAZIER AND CABRERA MEANING HE GOES FROM A KID ON A HOTSTREAK TO THE TEAM'S TOP 2 HITTER.  MEANING HE WOULD MORE LIKELY BE PITCHED AROUND.  IF THIS CAUSED THE 2/1 RATIO, THAN THAT IS A GOOD SIGN.  HENCE MY 60 WALK PREDICATION

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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by Guest on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:45 pm

    Mr Modelo wrote:I will not phrase it as crassly as Deplorable Mark.  It seems to me that rmapasad is claiming that Avisail Garcia will not hit over 300 in 2018 because he never did it before 2017.  Yet last year at this time, he correctly claimed Garcia could vastly improve as a hitter despite never having been much of a hitter.  Using the oft cited example of last spring, Jose Guillen; the year after the break out, Guillen only lost 17 points in batting average, 7 points in OBP and a whopping 72 in SLG (569 - 497)  So if Jose Guillen kept 99% of his on base ability, why can't Avisail Garcia?  The loss of power should not be a problem since all those groundball hits are mostly singles.  It does appear that rmapasad is not staying consistent with the arguments he made a year ago


    BUSTED!!!


    LMAO!!!!

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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:17 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Only an idiot thinks the ratio of groundballs, linedrives and flyballs remains constant year after year after year

    And let's never forget how last year Garcia hit better in the second half, which was a complete contradiction of all your BABIP lucky groundball BS claims of the first half.

    Of course since Garcia's hitting skills in general improved in 2017 it's logical he got better results from his GB's too.  Fine, but his ISO went from 140 to 176 (26% increase) but his GB BA went from 206 to 362 (76% increase). So that looks out of whack.

    I saw Garcia hit in LA this past year.  He appeared to take the ball to different fields, but his only hit was a groundball single between SS and 3b.  That's one game, but a lot of his singles were in that hole in 2017. 

    Let's see what happens this year.  He did have gains in BB and K in 2nd half. Every other forecaster out there says he's a 770-790 guy this year.   That's simply because these models are programmed such that it takes two years of sustained results to forecast plus numbers and Avi has only one year.  No magic there, I agree.

    I think Avi could jump his ISO to 200, increase his BB's to 8% and maybe lower K's to 17%. If so, he's a mid 800's guy even without some .315 + BA.    My concern is that his 26% jump in ISO wasn't overly impressive last year considering the whole AL had an 11% jump in ISO.   So if you think he can hit .315/.320 without much increase in power, decrease in K's then so be it.







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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by Guest on Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:26 pm

    I think its hilarious how much thought you put into this.  Not to mention how silly you sound by claiming he has to improve this and that and the other thing and he’ll still be worse than 2017.

    BTW he doesn’t need to increase power to improve as a hitter.  Considering what is batting behind him, he will constantly be pitched around.  So he just need to continue the second half trend, take the walks and singles up the middle.  So 320 with a shot at 350 and the batting title is completely plausible
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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by rmapasad on Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:09 am

     Not to mention how silly you sound by claiming he has to improve this and that and the other thing and he’ll still be worse than 2017.
    BTW he doesn’t need to increase power to improve as a hitter.  Considering what is batting behind him, he will constantly be pitched around.  So he just need to continue the second half trend, take the walks and singles up the middle.  So 320 with a shot at 350 and the batting title is completely plausible >>>


    So in essence a .340/.400/.510 season is a totally realistic projection for Garcia and anyone who is hoping for .290/.350/.490 is being the silly and ridiculous ? 


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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by Guest on Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:08 am

    rmapasad wrote: Not to mention how silly you sound by claiming he has to improve this and that and the other thing and he’ll still be worse than 2017.
    BTW he doesn’t need to increase power to improve as a hitter.  Considering what is batting behind him, he will constantly be pitched around.  So he just need to continue the second half trend, take the walks and singles up the middle.  So 320 with a shot at 350 and the batting title is completely plausible >>>


    So in essence a .340/.400/.510 season is a totally realistic projection for Garcia and anyone who is hoping for .290/.350/.490 is being the silly and ridiculous ? 



    WRONG!!!!


    290/350/490 is very plausible


    Your theory that Avisail Garcia has too many lucky groundball hits because he isn't as white as Mike Trout is what is silly and ridiculous


    But thank you for projecting

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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by al in cal on Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:44 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:As I told you b4, these projections are nothing more but glorified weighted averages.  There is nothing special about them.  Find me one projection from a year ago that had Garcia batting 330.  To claim none of these projections THINK Garcia will increase power or walks proves nothing except the limitations of the math.  For you to use the word THINK illustrates your lack of understanding.  Forecast models don't THINK.  Again, its a glorified weighted average of the past.  So if you never did it b4, a forecast will not predict it unless the forecaster deliberately puts it in.

    If you actually thought about the problem instead of thinking how you can disagree with me, you'd notice all these projections are splitting the difference between 2016 and 2017.  Common sense dictates there is a chance 2017 is now his new level of productivity.  Conversely, its also quite possible that 2017 was a fluke.  If you understood math, you'd quickly notice not one of these forecasts are picking either extreme.  Why?  Like I said, glorified weighted average.  So slice and dice the numbers all you want.  Its all meaningless mathematical masterbation.

    Of course no one saw Garcia's 2017 coming, you included.  AND I ADMITTED IT BY WEEK 3.  I thought his power (ISO) could increase some and at least that was a correct call.  But to say a guy whose highest BA in a full big league season was .257 should suddenly hit .330 is not a logical prediction.
    Yes, most 2018 predictors seem to split 2016 and 2017 weighing 2017 a bit more.
    IMO, it's not quite THAT simple. They're projecting a high but more realistic BABIP (340-345) which yields a .280.285 BA,

    AMAZING HOW THE FORECASTORS ARE PREDICTING A 60 POINT DIFFERENCE!!!!!  JUST LIKE THE KARK SAID.  BABIP IS A FUNCTION OF THE MATH.  IT DOES NOT DRIVE BATTING AVERAGE.  IT IS DRIVEN BY IT

    then tacking on 50-60 pts over BA for OBP and 165 pts over BA for Slugging and viola, they get .283/.338/.448 = .781 OPS.  

    But there's one more twist. Forecasts seems to expect power numbers (which reached an alltime high in 2017) to come down this year.

    WHY IS THIS A TWIST?!?!?!?!  ITS SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.  JUST LIKE I SAID!!!!!

       ZIPS has 80% of last year's top 20 hitters losing OPS this year and by an average of 70 points per guy.  So Garcia is hardly alone in the expectation that 2017 was a peak year.

    AGAIN, FUNCTION OF THE MATH!!!!  LINEAR EQUATION HAVE A TENDENCY TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE AVERAGE.  HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO EXPLAIN THIS?  THERE IS NOTHING MYSTICAL ABOUT THESE FORECASTS


    Given that bias, they don't expect Garcia to increase his 176 ISO, and most look to him to decrease that slightly.  That may be overly pessimistic.  If a guy bumps his power by 36 pts at age 26, bumping it another 30-40 pts at age 27 is not out of the question. But no one is going out on the limb and predicting a 200 ISO . Nor is anyone taking his 8-9 % walk rate of the second half and predicting a 70 pt spread of OBP-BA.

    So if you take those two components and add them to a .285 BA, you get
    285/355/485 = 840 OPS which I will say once more, is not an outlandish prediction.

    AND ITS STILL JUST SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2016 AND 2017.  OK, MAYBE THAT IS THE SAFE AND SANE SPOT TO PROJECT FROM, BUT YOU DON'T SPOT THERE.  YOU HAVE TO INSIST THAT ANY EXPECTATION THAT 2017 IS GARCIA'S NEW LEVEL IS NOT LOGICAL.  THEN GIVE SILLY MATH PROBLEM AS IF THEY ARE SOME KIND OF PROOF.  AS IF MAKING UP NUMBERS LIKE YOU ALWAYS DO IS ANY KIND OF PROOF

    What about the possibility of a collapse to near 2016 levels ?  Not impossible either, but I think he's made too much progress to go that far back.

    ONE CAN HOPE.  I'M SEEING 320BA WITH 60 WALKS.  BUT THAT MIGHT BE DYSLEXIC FOR 260 BA 32 WALKS

    I hope he can increase his power and plate discipline.  That way his value doesn't become so ultra-dependant on BA, which can be a fickle thing.     

    IF YOU ACTUALLY WATCH THE GAMES AND LISTEN TO THE HAWK INSTEAD OF READING BAD MATH, I'D UNDERSTAND THAT GARCIA MADE A CONSCIENCE EFFORT TO CHANGE HIS APPROACH AT THE PLATE AND GO UP THE MIDDLE AND GO WITH THE PITCH MORE.  THAT IS WHY HE HIT 330.  NOT THIS LUCKY GROUNDBALL BULLSHIT.  THE REAL DANGER IS GARCIA GOING BACK TO BAD HABITS.  NOT SOME MATHEMATICAL MUMBO JUMBO.


    PS HIS K/BB RATIO GOING FROM 5/1 B4 HIS INJURY TO 2/1 AFTER THE INJURY IS ALSO KEY.  GARCIA RETURNED AFTER THE TRADES OF FRAZIER AND CABRERA MEANING HE GOES FROM A KID ON A HOTSTREAK TO THE TEAM'S TOP 2 HITTER.  MEANING HE WOULD MORE LIKELY BE PITCHED AROUND.  IF THIS CAUSED THE 2/1 RATIO, THAN THAT IS A GOOD SIGN.  HENCE MY 60 WALK PREDICATION

        I agree with this. Garcia made a huge adjustment in his hitting approach last season and it was a pleasure to watch. If you look at AVI, you, I think, are looking at an Abreu clone and that is a great thing. He is no longer trying to pull the outside off-speed pitch which was his downfall before. Now he is waiting longer and delaying his hands and serving that pitch to right field. He also is strong enough to DRIVE that pitch to or over the wall in right just like Abreu is.
        It is going to be interesting watching the top of the order. A key is going to be the lead-off man who needs to get on to set up our top notch 2-3 hitters.



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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by Guest on Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:29 am

    Thanks for the observation Al.


    Its so nice to discuss actual baseball instead of trying to correct somebody's bad math

    al in cal
    Al Smith's Beer Bath

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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

    Post by al in cal on Tue Mar 27, 2018 10:31 pm

    I think that you probably recall that I am very much NOT a proponent of statistical projection for hitters. For me it is absolutely the eye test. Garcia absolutely ,if healthy, can be a Tommy Davis type hitter. He is strong. He was recruited as the highest prospect for the Tigers and the Sox were very smart to trade for him. He got great coaching and role models out of Stephenson, Konerko, and Abreu. I see this guy as an all-star for years to come.


       I also like Moncada's chances to develop. I also think Anderson will have a very good year. This infield has a GREAT future in front of them. They should have done more organization wise to add at least two more immediate bats to this line-up and given the starting pitching  a better chance to develop.

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    Re: More BABIP nonsense by the Bleacher ReporT

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