Nomadsfest Sox Fans

A forum for the old AOL board Sox fans and others.


    Opening Day Starter

    Share

    Guest
    Guest

    Opening Day Starter

    Post by Guest on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:37 am

    If it were up to THE KARK


    Giolito would be starting both Opening Day and the Home Opener.


    The starts in between can go to Lopez, Shields, Gonzalez, Santiago and Fulmer.  First time ever the KARK calling for a 6 man to start the season.


    But don't worry


    The next week Fulmer and Santiago are back in the pen as they battle for the 5th spot.  The remainder of the first half would be devoted to keeping Giolito and Lopez on a steady diet of starts on a regular 4 day rest pattern.


    The real fun begins in the second half.  By then Rodon and Kopech should be up and ready to do the Koufax/Drysdale thingee
    avatar
    Soxillinirob
    Chairman Reinsdorf

    Posts : 7955
    Join date : 2009-04-05
    Age : 52
    Location : St. Charles, IL

    Re: Opening Day Starter

    Post by Soxillinirob on Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:40 am

    Based on what I saw last year, Giolito is by far our number one.  Pretty small sample size, but he impressed me every time.

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Opening Day Starter

    Post by Guest on Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:11 am

    Soxillinirob wrote:Based on what I saw last year, Giolito is by far our number one.  Pretty small sample size, but he impressed me every time.


    On this staff, Rocky Biddle would battle for the #1 position


    geek



    And just to deliberately disagree with you, many people believe Lopez has the best arm on the current major league roster.  But then, its called pitching, not throwing.


    I guess the real argument is not whether or not Giolito is #1, but how much of that is by default.  In the meantime, nice to dream that 10 years from now, Giolito, Kopech, Lopez will be on e the same level as Madduz, Glavine, and Smoltz
    avatar
    Soxillinirob
    Chairman Reinsdorf

    Posts : 7955
    Join date : 2009-04-05
    Age : 52
    Location : St. Charles, IL

    Re: Opening Day Starter

    Post by Soxillinirob on Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:29 am

    No idea who has the best arm.  I didn't watch Lopez pitch very much last year, and when I did, he looked like he had potential to be good.  Giolito, on the other hand, appears to be a very good and a very tricky pitcher.  I haven't quite figured out who to compare him to, but his stuff flips and flutters all over the place and is hard to square up and hit hard.  What really impressed me was how well he used the entire strike zone from pitch to pitch, and how well he pitched just a little outside of the zone while throwing very hittable looking pitches that were getting swings, only to result in easy outs.  Something like Buehrle, but with more movement.  Buehrle generally stayed away from the upper half of the zone, except when he screwed up.  Giolito throws a bunch of shit up high with movement and gets outs with it.

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Opening Day Starter

    Post by Guest on Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:18 am

    The KARK has to admit that he has no idea what you are talking about.


    That doesn't mean I am refuting what you are saying


    It means I'm not the coach.


    It's an admission that the KARK couldn't scout his way out of a paper bag.  20 years ago, the KARK was all calculator.  But as he started looking deeper and deeper, THE KARK realized not everything is captured in the numbers.


    ************


    The way you described Giolito sounds like a good thing.  Hope you are correct and hope Giolito keeps it up the good stuff
    avatar
    rmapasad
    Chairman Reinsdorf

    Posts : 2818
    Join date : 2009-04-06
    Location : Northridge, CA

    Re: Opening Day Starter

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Feb 27, 2018 12:59 pm

    Soxillinirob wrote:No idea who has the best arm.  I didn't watch Lopez pitch very much last year, and when I did, he looked like he had potential to be good.  Giolito, on the other hand, appears to be a very good and a very tricky pitcher.  I haven't quite figured out who to compare him to, but his stuff flips and flutters all over the place and is hard to square up and hit hard.  What really impressed me was how well he used the entire strike zone from pitch to pitch, and how well he pitched just a little outside of the zone while throwing very hittable looking pitches that were getting swings, only to result in easy outs.  Something like Buehrle, but with more movement.  Buehrle generally stayed away from the upper half of the zone, except when he screwed up.  Giolito throws a bunch of shit up high with movement and gets outs with it.
    Lucas is a big guy (6'6") with big stuff.  Can get up to 95+, good slider, decent changeup and a massive big breaking curve.  Saw him pitch here in HS where he was quite the phenom.
    He was a man among boys at that level, but in minors he's had a bit of a problem throwing strikes consistently.  Which is common for guys like him whose ball moves all over the place. 

    Ironically he cut his BB rate in half when he moved to the majors which is VERY unusual as BB rate usually soars in bigs. Maybe pitching up in the zone got guys swinging more as it's tough to lay off that stuff.   But forecasters are skeptical that Gioloto will keep fooling big leaguers like he did in  Aug/Sept last year.  Of the 5 projections I've seen for him for 2018, none has him less than 4.25 ERA and one has him at 5.10 ERA. Sox fans will poo-pooh that for sure but forecasters are undoubtedly looking at his low K rate in majors, high BB rate in AAA, bit prone to HR ball in majors and thinking that over a whole year he will have some struggles.

    But the forecasts don't really matter.  As long as Gioloto doesn't get hurt or lose his confidence this year, the experience he gets is all good. Even if he gets a few hard knocks that he can learn from, he's on his way to eventually being one of the top pitchers in the AL.






    .  



    in AAA but seemingly mastered in his brief time with the Sox.  That said, all the projections seem to be skeptical of his ability to carry

    sustain his low ERA of last year with the Sox.  Projections call for him to be a mid 4.00's pitcher this year which is based primarily on his lower than expected K rate and his minor league BB rate, and his vulnerability to the long ball.   Point is that a guy with as much stuff as he's got probably takes a while to get it all toge

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Opening Day Starter

    Post by Guest on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:07 pm

    LMAO!!!!!


    FUCK YOUR FORCASTERS!!!!!!


    ITS ALL GLORIFIED WEIGHTED AVERAGES!!!!!!


    HOW MANY OF YOUR FALSE GODS PREDICTED AVISAIL GARCIA LAST YEAR?!?!?!?!?!


    NONE OF THEM!!!!!!


    YOUR FORECASTORS AREN'T LOOKING AT SHIT.  JUST PLUGGING NUMBERS INTO A COMPUTER


    IF YOU HAD ANY KIND OF MATH SKILLS, IT WOULD BE BLATANTLY OBVIOUS TO YOU

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Opening Day Starter

    Post by Guest on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:24 pm

    BASEBALL REFERENCE PREDICTS A 3.94 IN JUST 80 INNINGS!!!!!!  DOES THIS MEAN HE FAILS TO MAKE THE TEAM, OR DOES HE GET HURT IN JUNE?!?!?


    THE WHITE SOX WEBSITE, WHICH LOOKS LIKE FANGRAPHS, 5.02 era IN 24 STARTS.  CLEAR OVERWEIGHTING OF HIS AAA NUMBERS!!!!


    ZIPSS IN FAN GRAPHS 10-10 4.25 ERA 29 STARTS.  SO OBVIOUS A GLORIFIED WEIGHTED AVERAGE!!!




    THERE IS A GOOD REASON SOX FANS POO POO THESE PROJECTIONS.  ITS THE SAME REASON WHY MULTICOLINEARITY DOESN'T WIN CHAMPIONSHIPS.  EVERYBODY HERE SEE;S THE LACK OF CORRELATION EXCEPT FOR THE JACKASS THAT CAN'T EVEN CALCULATE A CORRELATION COEFFICIENT


    Last edited by Deplorable Mark on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:30 pm; edited 1 time in total

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Opening Day Starter

    Post by Guest on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:30 pm

    Common sense would dictate at least one forecastor would predict that a former #1 pitching prospect in all of baseball would have a breakout year.  Especially after a successful call up


    The fact that a bunch of math nerds aren't proves nothing except that they are all mathematically masterbating to the same SABR centerfold.  People who understand how this shit works get that.  Those who don't can't even figure out 1.8


    BASEBALL ISN'T CALCULUS!!!!!


    there is absolutely ZERO stats that would prevent Giolito from having a good year

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Opening Day Starter

    Post by Guest on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:56 pm

    to further prove my point, here is a composite of Yoan Moncada projections

    2018 Projections

    [th][/th][th]Team[/th][th]POS[/th][th]AB[/th][th]R[/th][th]HR[/th][th]RBI[/th][th]SB[/th][th]AVG[/th][th]OBP[/th][th]SLG[/th][th]OPS[/th][th]BB[/th][th]K[/th][th]FVal[/th]
    CompositeCWS2B535811962210.2430.3310.4040.73568185
    RotoChampCWS2B544871957190.2460.3400.4030.74376206
    SteamerCWS2B517721860200.2360.3270.3970.72466173
    ZiPSCWS2B539801960240.2470.3370.4040.74170175
    DavenportCWS2B535842168210.2430.3220.4220.74460185
    2017CWS2B1993182230.2310.3380.4120.7502974



    A sane intelligent person sees the obvious.  all these forecastors are more or less doing the exact same thing


    Only a jackass would considers it a consensus of experts

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Opening Day Starter

    Post by Guest on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:06 pm

    Here's Avisail Garcia

    2018 Projections















    [th][/th][th]Team[/th][th]POS[/th][th]AB[/th][th]R[/th][th]HR[/th][th]RBI[/th][th]SB[/th][th]AVG[/th][th]OBP[/th][th]SLG[/th][th]OPS[/th][th]BB[/th][th]K[/th][th]FVal[/th]
    CompositeCWSOF51871187560.2860.3390.4480.78737121
    RotoChampCWSOF52273167150.2820.3360.4350.77136126
    SteamerCWSOF50165197250.2830.3410.4550.79640121
    ZiPSCWSOF52070177560.2810.3350.4350.77035125
    DavenportCWSOF51876188160.2900.3420.4520.79438109
    2017CWSOF51875188050.3300.3800.5060.88633111
    You don't need to be CPA with a 135 IQ to notice that all they are doing is splitting the difference between 2016 and 2017.


    Splitting the difference gives you an OPS of 799.  Look how close all of them are.  Nobody predicting a one year wonder.  Nobody predicting 2017 was for real.


    Again, sane intelligent people see the very obvious glorified weighted average.  Only a jackass considers it a consensus of experts.


    These individual player forecasts are nonsense.  they can't predict collapses.  they can't predict breakouts.  Its nothing more than a summary of past performance.  Only an idiot thinks these computer algorithms are seeing something the die hard fan can't
    avatar
    Soxillinirob
    Chairman Reinsdorf

    Posts : 7955
    Join date : 2009-04-05
    Age : 52
    Location : St. Charles, IL

    Re: Opening Day Starter

    Post by Soxillinirob on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:15 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Soxillinirob wrote:No idea who has the best arm.  I didn't watch Lopez pitch very much last year, and when I did, he looked like he had potential to be good.  Giolito, on the other hand, appears to be a very good and a very tricky pitcher.  I haven't quite figured out who to compare him to, but his stuff flips and flutters all over the place and is hard to square up and hit hard.  What really impressed me was how well he used the entire strike zone from pitch to pitch, and how well he pitched just a little outside of the zone while throwing very hittable looking pitches that were getting swings, only to result in easy outs.  Something like Buehrle, but with more movement.  Buehrle generally stayed away from the upper half of the zone, except when he screwed up.  Giolito throws a bunch of shit up high with movement and gets outs with it.
    Lucas is a big guy (6'6") with big stuff.  Can get up to 95+, good slider, decent changeup and a massive big breaking curve.  Saw him pitch here in HS where he was quite the phenom.
    He was a man among boys at that level, but in minors he's had a bit of a problem throwing strikes consistently.  Which is common for guys like him whose ball moves all over the place. 

    Ironically he cut his BB rate in half when he moved to the majors which is VERY unusual as BB rate usually soars in bigs. Maybe pitching up in the zone got guys swinging more as it's tough to lay off that stuff.   But forecasters are skeptical that Gioloto will keep fooling big leaguers like he did in  Aug/Sept last year.  Of the 5 projections I've seen for him for 2018, none has him less than 4.25 ERA and one has him at 5.10 ERA. Sox fans will poo-pooh that for sure but forecasters are undoubtedly looking at his low K rate in majors, high BB rate in AAA, bit prone to HR ball in majors and thinking that over a whole year he will have some struggles.

    But the forecasts don't really matter.  As long as Gioloto doesn't get hurt or lose his confidence this year, the experience he gets is all good. Even if he gets a few hard knocks that he can learn from, he's on his way to eventually being one of the top pitchers in the AL.






    .  



    in AAA but seemingly mastered in his brief time with the Sox.  That said, all the projections seem to be skeptical of his ability to carry

    sustain his low ERA of last year with the Sox.  Projections call for him to be a mid 4.00's pitcher this year which is based primarily on his lower than expected K rate and his minor league BB rate, and his vulnerability to the long ball.   Point is that a guy with as much stuff as he's got probably takes a while to get it all toge


    Thanks for taking the time to share that, Roger.  I know I had heard he outperformed his expectations in the bigs last year when looking at his minor league numbers.  Your comments are interesting about his control at lower levels because I often saw him getting easy outs with pitches just a bit outside of the zone that I'm not used to seeing big leaguers swinging at.  He seemed to be getting swings at pitches high and in or high and away, and relied quite a bit on offspeed stuff, despite having a good fastball.  I love watching pitchers with unusual stuff, and he had some unusual stuff.  I spend a lot of time working with my sophomore pitcher son and am always trying to teach him to be a little different from the usual fare, with a lot of stress on natural movement.

    In Giolito's case, it always looked to me like some of the stuff he was throwing up in the zone had unpredictable movement and that the hitters were swinging at it almost thinking they had to protect or something.  He threw something that looked like a weird sort of changeup that looked like it had movement like a cross between a knuckler and a change.

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Opening Day Starter

    Post by Guest on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:52 pm

    ROBZ, sometimes pitchers just find that groove


    Mike Scott anybody?!?!?!?


    PS, this notion that BB rates soar when a pitcher gets called up is more bad math.  The KARK eyeballed a random sample of White Sox pitchers from the past and the results were mixed.  Guys like James Baldwin who struggled when called up struggled with control.  Guys like Cal Elred, who explode on the scene, see improvement.  


    Jon Garland lost control.  Jack McDowell improved control


    Truth is, nobody knows what Giolito is going to do; and for somebody here to claim his 2017 stat line holds some hidden code is pure BS


    PS, looking at Giolito's game log, his minor league stats are weighed down by a cold start.  could be youngster gitters caused by wanted to impress his new team that expects him to be a star of the future.  Or maybe it was a bunch of lucky groundball hits...

    geek
    avatar
    rmapasad
    Chairman Reinsdorf

    Posts : 2818
    Join date : 2009-04-06
    Location : Northridge, CA

    Re: Opening Day Starter

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:56 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:LMAO!!!!!


    FUCK YOUR FORCASTERS!!!!!!


    ITS ALL GLORIFIED WEIGHTED AVERAGES!!!!!!


    HOW MANY OF YOUR FALSE GODS PREDICTED AVISAIL GARCIA LAST YEAR?!?!?!?!?!


    NONE OF THEM!!!!!!


    YOUR FORECASTORS AREN'T LOOKING AT SHIT.  JUST PLUGGING NUMBERS INTO A COMPUTER


    IF YOU HAD ANY KIND OF MATH SKILLS, IT WOULD BE BLATANTLY OBVIOUS TO YOU


    Of course they're plugging numbers- that's what they do.  Jeesh....But just because forecasters missed on Garcia (like everyone else in the world did) doesn't mean they're worthless.  They're usually close 65-70% of the time.

    Lucas was 2.38 ERA in majors v. 4.48 in AAA.  No neat "weighted average" there. Guys ERA's are supposed to balloon when they're called up, not vice-versa.  So did Cooper teach him some secret that suddenly unlocked a key ?  Forecasters say "no" because they look at his K, BB, HR, FIP and say Lucas got a bit lucky in a small sample.   Not sure I believe those numbers are infallible either as the guy pitched well in 5 of 7 games. Plus he's a stud, so he will get hitters tangled up.

    But I also doubt that Cooper did miracles overnight and Lucas may still have some command problems like he did in AAA.   But so what if he does ?  He's 23 and the Sox can afford to go through some growing pains with him.  Just don't let him get hurt. He will be an ace soon enough.
    avatar
    rmapasad
    Chairman Reinsdorf

    Posts : 2818
    Join date : 2009-04-06
    Location : Northridge, CA

    Re: Opening Day Starter

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:34 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Here's Avisail Garcia

    2018 Projections


    [th][/th][th]Team[/th][th]POS[/th][th]AB[/th][th]R[/th][th]HR[/th][th]RBI[/th][th]SB[/th][th]AVG[/th][th]OBP[/th][th]SLG[/th][th]OPS[/th][th]BB[/th][th]K[/th][th]FVal[/th]
    CompositeCWSOF51871187560.2860.3390.4480.78737121
    RotoChampCWSOF52273167150.2820.3360.4350.77136126
    SteamerCWSOF50165197250.2830.3410.4550.79640121
    ZiPSCWSOF52070177560.2810.3350.4350.77035125
    DavenportCWSOF51876188160.2900.3420.4520.79438109
    2017CWSOF51875188050.3300.3800.5060.88633111
    You don't need to be CPA with a 135 IQ to notice that all they are doing is splitting the difference between 2016 and 2017.


    Splitting the difference gives you an OPS of 799.  Look how close all of them are.  Nobody predicting a one year wonder.  Nobody predicting 2017 was for real.


    Again, sane intelligent people see the very obvious glorified weighted average.  Only a jackass considers it a consensus of experts.


    These individual player forecasts are nonsense.  they can't predict collapses.  they can't predict breakouts.  Its nothing more than a summary of past performance.  Only an idiot thinks these computer algorithms are seeing something the die hard fan can't


    EVERYBODY from GM's on down use past performance to predict what they expect in the future.  A few guys fool the forecasts every year. So what ?  That doesn't mean ALL forecasts become "nonsense". Otherwise, might as well say Engel will hit .340 and Covey will put up a 2.50 ERA. Throw darts at the wall to pick a roster and lineup if everything is just a crapshoot.

    You want to believe that 2017 is the REAL Garcia, and his pre-2017 days don't matter.  Problem with that thinking is that his 2017 power and BB rate weren't a lot different than before so if the expected drop in BA occurs in 2018, where does that leave him ?

    But I'm not sold on the 2018 forecasts of him either.  Part of thinking Garcia was worth a shot in 2017 was his power could finally breakout.  It did some in 2017, but 2018 could be an even greater coming-out party for HR's for him.  I don't see a single 25-30 HR, 220 ISO forecast for him, and yet that isn't out of the question nor is a .290 BA/.360 OBP.

    Forecasters are always conservative and don't go out on a limb and it takes two years usually for them to believe in a breakout.  Garcia did see a spike in BB rate 2nd half, and if that continues maybe there is more progress on the horizon.  He hasn't always been the healthiest guy over his career and avoiding injury will be a big factor too.  But clearly 2018 will be the defining year of his career.
    avatar
    rmapasad
    Chairman Reinsdorf

    Posts : 2818
    Join date : 2009-04-06
    Location : Northridge, CA

    Re: Opening Day Starter

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:26 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:BASEBALL REFERENCE PREDICTS A 3.94 IN JUST 80 INNINGS!!!!!!  DOES THIS MEAN HE FAILS TO MAKE THE TEAM, OR DOES HE GET HURT IN JUNE?!?!?


    THE WHITE SOX WEBSITE, WHICH LOOKS LIKE FANGRAPHS, 5.02 era IN 24 STARTS.  CLEAR OVERWEIGHTING OF HIS AAA NUMBERS!!!!


    ZIPSS IN FAN GRAPHS 10-10 4.25 ERA 29 STARTS.  SO OBVIOUS A GLORIFIED WEIGHTED AVERAGE!!!




    THERE IS A GOOD REASON SOX FANS POO POO THESE PROJECTIONS.

    Would you have been "poo-pooing" Gioloto's projections if they had predicted a 2.75 ERA ? 

    Sponsored content

    Re: Opening Day Starter

    Post by Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:44 pm