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    WERE #26

    Post by Guest on Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:41 am

    Bleacher Report just cam out with its pre-spring training power rankings


    OUR White Sox are considered the 26th best MLB team.


    On the plus side, OUR White Sox are also considered the 3rd best team in the highly coveted AL Central.


    Heck, OUR White Sox just might turn into contenders by default.


    Let's see, if Avisail hits 320 and Moncada hits 290 and Anderson and Abreau fall somewhere in between.....


    OK, he pitching just isn't there.  Plus is their anybody in the rotation of the future with a Jack McDowell attitude?


    Still wouldn't mind seeing Lorenzo Cain on a 3 year $55mil deal.  Hope he ain't one of the a-holes planning to sit out.  Otherwise, screw the greedy bastard
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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by alohafri on Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:15 am

    Talk to me in 2019 and 2020 about pre-season rankings. If you're surprised about a #26 ranking, you haven't been paying attention.
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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Hawk Harrelson on Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:36 am

    Hopefully Murph can keep SFOD strong during the Rebuild.

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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Guest on Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:09 am

    alohafri wrote:Talk to me in 2019 and 2020 about pre-season rankings. If you're surprised about a #26 ranking, you haven't been paying attention.


    and just where did I indicate surprise Mr Reading Comprehension?


    BTW, somebody has to keep the White Sox talk going.  Or should we just close down the board until the next 500+ season?


    So excuse me for trying to introduce a fresh topic
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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by alohafri on Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:27 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    alohafri wrote:Talk to me in 2019 and 2020 about pre-season rankings. If you're surprised about a #26 ranking, you haven't been paying attention.


    and just where did I indicate surprise Mr Reading Comprehension?


    BTW, somebody has to keep the White Sox talk going.  Or should we just close down the board until the next 500+ season?


    So excuse me for trying to introduce a fresh topic

    Mr. Potatohead! Mr. Potatohead! I'm just fucking with you. WIN NOW!!!!

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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Guest on Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:41 am

    When Avisail bats 400 this year, they just might

    Razz
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    rmapasad
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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:24 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:When Avisail bats 400 this year, they just might

    Razz

    Put aside all the parrying that's been done about him, what is the serious expectation for him ?

    Realistically the guy is going to have to increase his HR output to 25+ to be considered a real keeper for the future.  And until he proves that his power can increase to that level he's a bad bet for a long-term extension.

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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Guest on Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:45 pm

    BLAH BLAH BLAH

    WHAT IF HE HITS 320 WITH 15 HR AND 60 BB?

    THAT AIN'T A KEEPER?!?!?!?

    ABSOLUTELY HILLARIOUS HOW YOU WERE ALL FOR THE GUY WHEN HE SUCKED, BUT NOW THAT HE TURNED IT AROUND YOU INSIST HE'S A WORTHLESS FLUKE

    SO SPARE US YOUR PLAYER A AND PLAYER B BULLSHIT.  WE ALL UNDERSTAND AVISAIL HAS TO CONTINUE TO HIT TO BE WORTH IT.

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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Guest on Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:59 pm

    Avisail drew more than half his walks after Aug 1.


    Avisail hit 382 after Aug 1


    Avisial decreased his K rate to 1 every 5.4 AB after 8/1.  Prior it was 1 every 4.4AB


    If one actually watch the games instead of inventing bullshit stats, one would have noticed that Avisail Garcia completely changed his approach to hitting.  Instead of being the swing at everything softball slugger, he grew more patient and starting hitting the ball where it was pitched and going up the middle and the opposite way.  That is why the KARK claimed Avisail showed how intelligent he was as a ballplayer.  The man improved in every aspect of the game.  So excuse the KARK if he'd rather believe what he saw on the ball field instead of a bunch of bad math.
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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:04 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Avisail drew more than half his walks after Aug 1.
    Avisail hit 382 after Aug 1
    Avisial decreased his K rate to 1 every 5.4 AB after 8/1.  Prior it was 1 every 4.4AB
    If one actually watch the games instead of inventing bullshit stats, one would have noticed that Avisail Garcia completely changed his approach to hitting. 

    Weren't you just using stats to make your point  ?  Very Happy

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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Guest on Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:36 am

    I'm using real stats


    Clearly Avisail Garcia improved as the year went on.  Something you claimed would not happen last summer because of some unproven hypothesis based upon some invented stat.  You specifically said his BABIP indicates a 780 OPS in the 2nd half.  In reality it was like 920.  A complete 180 of what your analysis indicated.


    Do you even realize that you are contradicting eveything you said about Avisail last year at this time?!?!?!


    and yes, I do realize my analysis of Avisail last year at this time was also 100% wrong.  However, I can admit it
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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:21 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:I'm using real stats


    Clearly Avisail Garcia improved as the year went on.  Something you claimed would not happen last summer because of some unproven hypothesis based upon some invented stat.  You specifically said his BABIP indicates a 780 OPS in the 2nd half.  In reality it was like 920.  A complete 180 of what your analysis indicated.


    Do you even realize that you are contradicting eveything you said about Avisail last year at this time?!?!?!


    and yes, I do realize my analysis of Avisail last year at this time was also 100% wrong.  However, I can admit it

    BABIP is not a "phony" stat.   ESPN and Fan Graphs use it.  But BABIP does not always "revert to the mean".  Guys can keep topping league average BABIP which is around .300 by:          1-  hitting the ball real hard 2 -more line drives (which have a near .700 BA)  3 - being speed demons to beat out IF hits  4- spray to all fields to prevent defenders' shifts.
     
    Avi's .392 BABIP is hard to explain though. He's got above average speed, but not like Tim Anderson or other SB artists. .  Yet, Avi got as many IF hits as the real speed demons.
    His line drive rate ranked 75th (or middle of the pack) among the 145 guys who qualified for the batting title.  He ranked 53rd in hard hit % which is upper 40% but hardly elite.  In spraying the ball to opposite field he ranked 83rd or below average, although he did as you say get better at that in 2nd half.   BTW, this is where Yolmer excelled as he ranked 17th in majors in hitting to opposite field. 

    So all in all, it's hard to see the "skills" that will keep producing this kind of high BABIP which in turn produces the high Bat Avg.   Of course, a guy can also improves his BA by lowering K's which Avi did and by hitting more HR's which Avi did but not that many more. Those kind of improvements seem to fit a 6'4" guy like him and maybe he can have more power in 2018.

    Which brings me to this alleged "contradiction" of mine.  The problem is that YOU have been either 0 mph or 100 mph on Avi, and can't recognize how someone else can go from 25 mph  on him prior to 2017 to 40 mph after 2017. I haven't contradicted myself at all.  I have simply gone from "he will probably suck but at age 26 he has a chance to improve and deserves that  chance because Sox clearly don't have anyone better for RF, so let's see what happens in 2017" to "I still have concerns about plate discipline and not enough power but he's shown some improvement, Sox still don't have anyone better, so let's see what happens in 2018."
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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by alohafri on Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:00 pm

    If it's not on the back of a basic baseball card, it's a phony stat.


    Stathead Todd told me that Rob Deer was better than Bill Buckner. Bullshit.

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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Guest on Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:23 pm

    Avi's .392 BABIP is hard to explain though.


    ************************************


    actually, its very easy to explain.  Garcia consistantly has a BABIP to BA differential of 60.  Clearly his BABIP is a function of the math.  Just like 1.8.  However, the hobbyists that invent this stuff don't fully understand basic statistics.  A month a go, I saw a study where the guy couldn't even calculate a proper correlation coefficient.  contrary to your believes, these are not the finest mathematical minds in America.  I also doubt there is any kind of formal peer review process.  Just as many hacks are there are true professionals.  the trick is knowing how to tell the difference


    PS, just because ESPN and Fangraphs use it is prove of nothing.  

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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Guest on Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:28 pm

    The problem is that YOU have been either 0 mph or 100 mph on Avi,




    */***************




    That stuff tends  to happen when a 26 year old goes from 245 to 330 and you can actually see how he improved when watching a game.




    You on the other hand went from 100 to zero and are trying to justify and bunch of bad math is better than what one can see with their own eyes.  You'r like Robz trying to deny $2 gas.  sorry but $5 gas never became real.  Garcia hittting 330 did




    so forgive me for trusting my eyes insisting of the math that would clearly flunk stats 101
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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Soxillinirob on Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:38 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:The problem is that YOU have been either 0 mph or 100 mph on Avi,




    */***************




    That stuff tends  to happen when a 26 year old goes from 245 to 330 and you can actually see how he improved when watching a game.




    You on the other hand went from 100 to zero and are trying to justify and bunch of bad math is better than what one can see with their own eyes.  You'r like Robz trying to deny $2 gas.  sorry but $5 gas never became real.  Garcia hittting 330 did




    so forgive me for trusting my eyes insisting of the math that would clearly flunk stats 101

    Where can i get me some of that $2.00 gas?  I'm tired of paying $2.50 or more for it.

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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Guest on Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:41 pm

    Avi's .392 BABIP is hard to explain though. He's got above average speed, but not like Tim Anderson or other SB artists. .  Yet, Avi got as many IF hits as the real speed demons.
    His line drive rate ranked 75th (or middle of the pack) among the 145 guys who qualified for the batting title.  He ranked 53rd in hard hit % which is upper 40% but hardly elite.  In spraying the ball to opposite field he ranked 83rd or below average, although he did as you say get better at that in 2nd half.   BTW, this is where Yolmer excelled as he ranked 17th in majors in hitting to opposite field.  


    ********************


    EXCUSE ME, BUT ALL YOU ARE DOING IS SPLITTING IS AT BATS DOWN TO SAMPLE SIZES THAT ARE MORE OR LESS MEANINGLESS, THEN ACTING LIKE YOUR CONCLUSION IS THE ONLY LOGICAL ONE WHEN THE TRUTH IS, ANYBODY CAN CONCOCT A NARRATIVE THAT IS THE EXACT OPPOSITE AND SOUND JUST AS PLAUSIBLE.


    DO YOU EVEN REALIZE HOW MEANINGLESS IT IS THAT YOLMER WAS 17TH IN OPPOSITE FIELD HITS?  WHAT THE HELL DOES THAT CORRELATE TOO?  JUST LIKE YOUR OBSESSION WITH LUCKY GROUNDBALL HITS.  EVER THINK THAT MAYBE YOU ARE MISSING A FACTOR?!?!?  MAYBE NEXT YEAR GARCIA WILL GET LUCKY ON POPUPS


    AND SPARE ME THE AVERAGES ON EXIT VELOCITY AND THE OTHER STUFF.  THAT LIKE CLAIMING A MAN WITH HIS FEET IN THE ICE BOX AND HEAD IN THE OVEN HAS A BODY AT ROOM TEMPERATURE.


    YOU WERE MORE CONVINCING WITH YOUR JOSE GUILLEN EXAMPLES THAN WITH THE BAD MATH.  OR IS THAT THE PROBLEM.  YOU CAN'T FIND SUCH A PLAYER NOW BUT YOU STILL MUST DELIBERATELY DISAGREE WITH ME

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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Guest on Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:42 pm

    Soxillinirob wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:The problem is that YOU have been either 0 mph or 100 mph on Avi,




    */***************




    That stuff tends  to happen when a 26 year old goes from 245 to 330 and you can actually see how he improved when watching a game.




    You on the other hand went from 100 to zero and are trying to justify and bunch of bad math is better than what one can see with their own eyes.  You'r like Robz trying to deny $2 gas.  sorry but $5 gas never became real.  Garcia hittting 330 did




    so forgive me for trusting my eyes insisting of the math that would clearly flunk stats 101

    Where can i get me some of that $2.00 gas?  I'm tired of paying $2.50 or more for it.


    I HAVE SOME HOME MADE CHILLI I CAN GIVE YOU FOR FREE


    PS, NEWT THANKS YOU FOR CONFIRMING HOW CORRECT HE WAS IN 2012

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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Guest on Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:43 pm

    alohafri wrote:If it's not on the back of a basic baseball card, it's a phony stat.


    Stathead Todd told me that Rob Deer was better than Bill Buckner. Bullshit.


    HE MUST HAVE MEANT AS A FIELDER

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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Guest on Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:02 pm

    alohafri wrote:If it's not on the back of a basic baseball card, it's a phony stat.


    Stathead Todd told me that Rob Deer was better than Bill Buckner. Bullshit.


    Let's see Buckner had his first MLB at bat in 1969 and last one in 1990


    Rob Deer first appearred in 1984 and played until 1993 and somehow got another 50AB in 1996, most likely some sort of serious injury comeback that clearly didn't last very long


    Deer had 2 seasons with an OPS over 800 where he qualified for the batting title.  Ditto Bill Buckner.


    Deer had a 3rd season with an OPS of 884 which was powered by 32 HR in 393 at bats.  Buckner never had anything close.  But he did win a batting title


    for their careers, Deer had an OPS of 766 while Buckners was just 729.  But then Buckner played from 20-40.  Deer was basically 24-32.  So Buckners career averages (AVG/OBP/SLG) are driven down because he played quite a few years where he was clearly below average.  Deer on the other hand, got hurt and disappeared in his early 30's.


    the only way one could conclude Deer is better than Buckner is to subtract all those years Buckner was below average.  However, that would be bad math and false logic.  Buckenr should not be penalized because the Red Sox brought him back at age 40 to see if he could improve upon the 216 average he had the year before just to watch him hit 186.  Conversely, Dee should not be rewarded because he got hurt and he didn't spent a year or three stinking up the joint trying to collect a few more paychecks.


    As much as I would love to agree with sexy bod-Todd on this one, Kevin is 100% correct on this one
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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:48 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Avi's .392 BABIP is hard to explain though.


    ************************************


    actually, its very easy to explain.  Garcia consistantly has a BABIP to BA differential of 60.  Clearly his BABIP is a function of the math.  Just like 1.8. 

    His alleged "consistent 60 point differential" isn't really that consistent.   Fewer K's and more HR's both lower the spread, but higher BABIP increases spread.  So Garcia's lower K's + higher HR's would have pushed his differential into the 40's with his former BABIP.  On the flip side, his higher BABIP increased would have increased the spread to 80's with same HR/K rates. Viola -these factors cancelled each other out to give him same 60 pt spread but for very different reasons than before.  I can send you the spreadsheet that proves exactly that.

    Actually Bat Avg, is the REAL "function of the math".   BABIP is one of the three things controlling overall Bat Avg, - HR's and K's being other two. But BABIP was by far biggest factor for Garcia.

    Per 500 AB's in 2015-2016, Avi  had 12.5 HR's, 358 BIP's, and 112.8 hits off BIP (316 BABIP - 251 BA) 
    Per 500 AB's 2017, Garcia had 18 HR's,  376 BIP's, and  147.6 hits off BIP (392 BA - 330 BA)
    So it's easy to see now how Garcia got more hits and a better BA in 2017. 
    5.5 more hits from more HR's per 500 AB's plus  5.5 more hits from 18 more BIP's due to fewer K's 
    then  28 more hits from an improved BABIP off the first 358 BIPs 

    11 more hits from more HR's + fewer K's adds 22 points per 500 AB's, and the other 56 points of BA improvement comes from his improvement in BABIP.   Avi would have been a .273 hitter if he had maintained his 2015-2016 BABIP which were pretty consistent (309 in 2015 -320 in 2016). 

    Fan Graphs projection for this year has him at .333 BABIP/ .281 BA/.340 OBP/.456 Slug =  796 OPS

    So two ways he could add another 20 points to that .281 BA projection: 
    A - hit 5 more HR's plus get 5 more hits from 15 more BIP 's due to fewer K's = .301/.360/.495
    B - hit same # of HR's and have same K's, but .350 BABIP = .300 BA/.360/.475

    Path A not only gives him a higher OPS, but shows he has more lasting skills.  For him to have to depend on a .350+ BABIP year after year is asking a lot.

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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Guest on Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:23 pm

    His alleged "consistent 60 point differential" isn't really that consistent.



    62 in 2017
    64 in 2016
    63 in 2015


    seems very consistant to me


    you truly are a fucking moron

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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Guest on Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:24 pm

    Fan Graphs projection for this year has him at .333 BABIP/ .281 BA/.340 OBP/.456 Slug =  796 OPS




    what was it last year shit for brains?!?!?!?!?!




    i bet it was nowhere near 330

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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Guest on Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:26 pm

    So two ways he could add another 20 points to that .281 BA projection: 




    ONLY TWO WAYS?!?!?!?!?!


    TIME TO PUT YOUR LYING STUPID ASS ON IGNORE


    LET'S SEE IF ANYBODY ELSE WILL PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR RETARDED STATS
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    Re: WERE #26

    Post by Soxillinirob on Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:37 pm

    We have an ignore button?

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    Re: WERE #26

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