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    Look what the KARK found

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    Deplorable Mark
    Chairman Reinsdorf

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    Join date : 2016-09-16

    Look what the KARK found

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:59 pm

    I decided to play around with the 2017 splits.  Specifically, the ones concerning the 24 different scenarios concerning number of outs and number of base runners.  In other words, the runs expectancy matrix.


    the KARK noticed that two or more runners on with less than 2 outs have some killer OPS


    significantly larger than the OPS with nobody on.  Ironically, once there is two outs, OPS takes a dive.  Even with runners on.


    One logical explanation is that two or more on with less than two outs suggests a struggling pitcher, which means batting practice time for the hitter.


    This also explains why it nose dives at two outs.  By two outs, a reliever has probably been put into the game.


    Unfortunately I don't have the time or resources to investigate fuller.  But what I suspect is happening is that roger's socalled 1.8 is really a struggling pitcher being taken advantage of.


    A serious sabermetician would look into this because the 2017 splits suggest it might be better to have a quick hook then a slow hook.  This would provide real value.  Unlike like jerking around with what works best in a regression model, a manager needs to know when to pull a pitcher.  I never heard of a manager calling for a standard deviation
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    rmapasad
    Chairman Reinsdorf

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    Join date : 2009-04-06
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    Re: Look what the KARK found

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:09 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:I decided to play around with the 2017 splits.  Specifically, the ones concerning the 24 different scenarios concerning number of outs and number of base runners.  In other words, the runs expectancy matrix.


    the KARK noticed that two or more runners on with less than 2 outs have some killer OPS


    significantly larger than the OPS with nobody on.  Ironically, once there is two outs, OPS takes a dive.  Even with runners on.


    One logical explanation is that two or more on with less than two outs suggests a struggling pitcher, which means batting practice time for the hitter.


    This also explains why it nose dives at two outs.  By two outs, a reliever has probably been put into the game.


    Unfortunately I don't have the time or resources to investigate fuller.  But what I suspect is happening is that roger's socalled 1.8 is really a struggling pitcher being taken advantage of.


    A serious sabermetician would look into this because the 2017 splits suggest it might be better to have a quick hook then a slow hook.  This would provide real value.  Unlike like jerking around with what works best in a regression model, a manager needs to know when to pull a pitcher.  I never heard of a manager calling for a standard deviation

    Significant OPS with any runners on 3rd and less than 2 outs. Average OPS is 887.  Those constitute only 5% of all PA's but account for 28% of all runs scored.   But yes, it drops down significantly with 2 outs, even with runners at 3rd  (.736 OPS).  But still 15% of all runs are scored with some runner at 3rd, 2 outs even though those are only 5% of all PA's.

    I can see a variety of reasons for high OPS with runners on 3rd, less than 2 outs
    1- Defensive positioning.  IFers play in to try to cut down a runner trying to score on a grounder from 3rd and that opens up more chances for balls to get through for hits. OFers play in to cut down a Sac Fly from scoring a run and that increases doubles and triples as it opens gaps in the OF.
    2- Walks to set up the double play with runners at 3rd or 2nd/3rd (increases OBP)
    3- Fewer strikeouts as hitters are focused on contact with runner at 3rd, less than 2 outs - more opportunities for hits as some of those non-strikeouts go sneak through for hits.
    4- More sacrifices which mean that outs don't count as official Ab's -
    5- Pitchers working more carefully to hitters thus falling behind in more counts

    Obviously with 2 outs, fielders resume more normal positioning and the onus is now on the hitter to get a hit to score runners.  Every AB is an official one now.  Last but not least, late in the game managers can use a situational reliever (LHer or RHer) to get that one last hitter with 2 outs, runners in scoring position.  

      Current date/time is Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:52 am