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    Jose Abreau

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    Deplorable Mark
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    Jose Abreau

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:52 am

    Supposedly very popular in trade talks this winter.


    It is the KARK's understanding that the hitting available in the free agent market is somewhat thin this winter.


    The KARK is not in a rush to trade Abreau, but then Branch Rickey had a point: BETTER A YEAR TOO EARLY THAN A YEAR TOO LATE.


    If traded, the KARK is hoping for 22 year old versions of Bret Butler and Jim Thome at minimum.


    I trust Hahn will played this intelligently like he did with Quintana.  Wait for somebody to panic and over pay.
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by alohafri on Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:11 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Supposedly very popular in trade talks this winter.


    It is the KARK's understanding that the hitting available in the free agent market is somewhat thin this winter.


    The KARK is not in a rush to trade Abreau, but then Branch Rickey had a point: BETTER A YEAR TOO EARLY THAN A YEAR TOO LATE.


    If traded, the KARK is hoping for 22 year old versions of Bret Butler and Jim Thome at minimum.


    I trust Hahn will played this intelligently like he did with Quintana.  Wait for somebody to panic and over pay.

    MLB Network was talking about teams like the Red Sox and Cardinals who might be in the market for some power, who should underpay for Abreu. Thankfully it's not Kenny at the helm.


    All things being equal, I'd keep Abreu and trade Avi if I was going to let one of them go.
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:13 pm

    All things being equal, I'd keep Abreu and trade Avi if I was going to let one of them go.


    **********************


    I guess it all comes down to what either of these two can bring in return.


    No rush to trade either
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Soxillinirob on Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:44 pm

    alohafri wrote:

    MLB Network was talking about teams like the Red Sox and Cardinals who might be in the market for some power, who should underpay for Abreu. Thankfully it's not Kenny at the helm.


    All things being equal, I'd keep Abreu and trade Avi if I was going to let one of them go.

    I see where you're coming from on this, Kevin.  I think I have a fear that Abreu at any moment can become what Frank Thomas became after 2003...i.e. a slow footed slugger that used to play first base.  I was impressed by what I saw of Avi this season.  Looked to me like he had worked very hard to become a more complete player.  Better speed.  Better fielder.  Hitting for average.  He's still not the offensive force of Abreu, but I wonder if in a couple of years we'll be looking back at Abreu's better days and be in the middle of Avi's best days.  
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Hawk Harrelson on Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:47 pm

    WIN NOW-RELOAD!!
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by alohafri on Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:05 am

    Soxillinirob wrote:
    alohafri wrote:

    MLB Network was talking about teams like the Red Sox and Cardinals who might be in the market for some power, who should underpay for Abreu. Thankfully it's not Kenny at the helm.


    All things being equal, I'd keep Abreu and trade Avi if I was going to let one of them go.

    I see where you're coming from on this, Kevin.  I think I have a fear that Abreu at any moment can become what Frank Thomas became after 2003...i.e. a slow footed slugger that used to play first base.  I was impressed by what I saw of Avi this season.  Looked to me like he had worked very hard to become a more complete player.  Better speed.  Better fielder.  Hitting for average.  He's still not the offensive force of Abreu, but I wonder if in a couple of years we'll be looking back at Abreu's better days and be in the middle of Avi's best days.  

    We may be in the middle of Avi's best days, or this could have been a one year uptick. Someone might be willing to pay a higher price in hopes that it's the former. I'm sure there are guys in the minors (a third baseman, an outfielder) that we could easily convert to a first baseman for two years down the line.


    Besides, Abreu is a better MENTOR.  bom
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:02 am

    We may be in the middle of Avi's best days, or this could have been a one year uptick


    **********************


    TOO MANY LUCKY GROUNDBALL HITS!!!!!


    DUMP HIM ON THE FIRST SUCKER THAT COMES ALONG!!!!!
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:10 am

    Besides, Abreu is a better MENTOR.  

    ************************************************


    According to the HAWK, Avisail Garcia is all hustle, all the time.


    Giving 100% and busting your ass to become a 5 tool player like Avisail did last year is the type of mentor I want in my system.


    The KARK is with Mr RobZ on this one.  In a couple years, we will be watching Avisail Garcia in his prime.


    BTW, Abreau will be 31 in the 2018 season.  Garcia doesn't turn 27 until June.  If the Cubans need a mentor, I believe Alexei Ramirez is looking for a coaching position
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:24 pm

    Soxillinirob wrote:
    alohafri wrote:

    MLB Network was talking about teams like the Red Sox and Cardinals who might be in the market for some power, who should underpay for Abreu. Thankfully it's not Kenny at the helm.


    All things being equal, I'd keep Abreu and trade Avi if I was going to let one of them go.

    I see where you're coming from on this, Kevin.  I think I have a fear that Abreu at any moment can become what Frank Thomas became after 2003...i.e. a slow footed slugger that used to play first base.  I was impressed by what I saw of Avi this season.  Looked to me like he had worked very hard to become a more complete player.  Better speed.  Better fielder.  Hitting for average.  He's still not the offensive force of Abreu, but I wonder if in a couple of years we'll be looking back at Abreu's better days and be in the middle of Avi's best days.  

    Abreu's fielding has always been subpar and at age 31 his days as a DH aren't far off.  IMO, 2018-2019 will likely be Abreu's last hurrah. Nearly all the guys 33+ who've maintained a good level had much better BB/K ratios than Abreu, a free swinger that depends on bat speed rather than good plate judgment.  Part of the reason he's yo-yoed so much in his 4 years with the Sox.

    I say the Sox should absolutely trade this guy if they can get a decent return as he's unlikely to have much value at ages 33-35 when the Sox are ready to contend.  His profile isn't like the guys who were still successful at those ages (David Ortiz, Frank Thomas, Nelson Cruz, etc).

    Since Avi is age 27 his prime years are theoretically ahead of him.  But he needs to gain more power and better plate discipline, things that can happen for guys in late 20's.  It's definitely worth the Sox seeing what he'll do in 2018.   I don't buy him as a perennial .300 hitter with his lousy .30 BB/K ratio.  If there are still GM's dumb enough to believe in his 2017 BA and offer a good young prospect in return, the Sox should listen.   Since most GM's today are young and sabermetrically oriented, I doubt that such an offer will be made though. 
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Hawk Harrelson on Tue Nov 28, 2017 2:29 pm

    BELIEVE!!


    White Sox Pride!!
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:32 pm

    Since most GM's today are young and sabermetrically oriented, I doubt that such an offer will be made though. 

    ********************************************

    Yeah, but I sure some of them actually understand math.  As well as actually watching the players instead of some hobbyist who hasn't figured out OBP and SLG don't belong in the same linear regression.

    The KARK just loves how you have very little faith in Avisail but think Leury is somehow for real.

    2018 will show how much of this bibity bobity babip bullshit is for real.

    PS, when Avisail's power took a backwards turn in the 2nd half, the lucky groundball hits came back with a vengeance.  Still waiting for an explanation that is better than your default childish whine of Tom Tango is smarter than you.
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:13 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Since most GM's today are young and sabermetrically oriented, I doubt that such an offer will be made though. 
    ********************************************

    Yeah, but I sure some of them actually understand math.  As well as actually watching the players instead of some hobbyist who hasn't figured out OBP and SLG don't belong in the same linear regression.
    The KARK just loves how you have very little faith in Avisail but think Leury is somehow for real.
    2018 will show how much of this bibity bobity babip bullshit is for real.
    PS, when Avisail's power took a backwards turn in the 2nd half, the lucky groundball hits came back with a vengeance.  Still waiting for an explanation that is better than your default childish whine of Tom Tango is smarter than you.

    You just love to distort everything which makes it useless to try to discover the truth since it's always YOUR version of it. 
    1- I've said constantly Avi improved in power, lower K's, % of harder hit balls and defense.  Should those improvements have produced a .320 BA ?  No...that BA is the product of a lot of good fortune.   But he may have improved enough to be a legit .280 + hitter and with some improvement in power .285/.335/.475 is not an unrealistic expectation.    That's solid a RF regular.
    As to Leury, his defense looks adequate but IMO he's a .260/.300/.390 guy which is better than Engel and not a total embarrassment. But he's really a 4th OFer.   Chances are Sox are still going to have a couple guys like that rotating in and out of starting jobs in 2018. So what ?

    2 - This whole distortion stuff over the 1.8 is enough.  My final, final point and this sums it up completely. You can separate the increase in Slug from the increase in OBP for extra base hitting events so you don't have deal with this stuff about multicolinearity.
    It's as simple as this.  A guy with 9 AB's, 3 singles has a .333/.333/.333 line.   Any walk or hit, no matter what type, increases his OBP to .400.  That 67 pt increase is the fixed OBP increment for avoiding the out and gaining a single base.  A double increases his Slug to .500, 167 pt increase but still a 100 pt increase independent of the OBP bump.  Got it ????   So the guy got a 67 pt reward to OBP for getting 1 base but a 100 pt added reward to Slug (over the imbedded OBP bump) for gaining 1 more base with the double.
    Why should his Slug get a greater reward per base gained than OBP ?  Because of the way Slug is calculated, and some adjustment is needed to level the playing field.  But it gets worse, because the value of OBP isn't just gaining the extra base but in avoiding the out.  So when you calculate the REAL value with 0 on, 0 out the 67 bump to OBP from getting to 1st base/avoiding the out is .37 added runs to run expectancy = .0055 runs per pt. of OBP.   However, the extra 100 pts added to Slug (over and above imbedded OBP bump) by getting to 2b adds only .22 runs to RE beyond the value of gaining 1b alone.  Meaning that added pts. of SLug beyond the imbedded OBP bump = .0022 RE value per added pt of Slug meaning that viola  in this particular case a POINT OF OBP is worth 2.5 times a point of Slug.  (divide .0055 by .0022)

    But 0 on, 0 out is just one of 24 different out/onbase scenarios, and each has a different value for  Slug v. OBP.  Obviously a double with men on 2nd and 3rd, 2 outs will produce a far greater value for Slug than raw OBP (ie., a walk).  Tango referred to these run expectancy tables and the frequency of each scenario in his article on this.  So he could compute values for Slug and OBP in each scenario and then adjust for the frequency of each one in the real world.  Since 0 on base is close to 60 % of all PA's, I see where their "average" value for a pt of OBP increase v. Slug increase (independent of the imbedded OBP) could be in the 1.7 -1.8 range.  

    My argument does NOT rest on blind faith in Tango or anyone else since their assumptions can be easily validated through basic logic and math.  Sure, he is far more knowledgeable on this subject than you or I, but the logic of what he was doing isn't that difficult to understand. 
    I'm done.  You haven't proved a damn thing in reality because you were only consumed in an ego contest and never a search for truth.  But that is so typical.
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:41 am

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:Since most GM's today are young and sabermetrically oriented, I doubt that such an offer will be made though. 
    ********************************************

    Yeah, but I sure some of them actually understand math.  As well as actually watching the players instead of some hobbyist who hasn't figured out OBP and SLG don't belong in the same linear regression.
    The KARK just loves how you have very little faith in Avisail but think Leury is somehow for real.
    2018 will show how much of this bibity bobity babip bullshit is for real.
    PS, when Avisail's power took a backwards turn in the 2nd half, the lucky groundball hits came back with a vengeance.  Still waiting for an explanation that is better than your default childish whine of Tom Tango is smarter than you.

    You just love to distort everything which makes it useless to try to discover the truth since it's always YOUR version of it. 
    1- I've said constantly Avi improved in power, lower K's, % of harder hit balls and defense.  Should those improvements have produced a .320 BA ?  No...that BA is the product of a lot of good fortune.

    AMAZING HOW HE GOT LUCKIER AS THE YEAR WENT ON.  IN DIRECT CONTRADICTION YOUR BABIP NONSENSE.  WHICH BTW I COMPLETELY DEBUNKED IN AVISAIL GARCIA'S CASE A MONTH OR SO AGO

      But he may have improved enough to be a legit .280 + hitter and with some improvement in power .285/.335/.475 is not an unrealistic expectation.    That's solid a RF regular.
    As to Leury, his defense looks adequate but IMO he's a .260/.300/.390 guy which is better than Engel and not a total embarrassment. But he's really a 4th OFer.   Chances are Sox are still going to have a couple guys like that rotating in and out of starting jobs in 2018. So what ?

    AND HE'S GOOD ENOUGH TO IGNORE LORENZO CAIN ACCORDING TO YOU.  AMAZING HOW YOU IGNORE HIS 599 LIFETIME OPS SIMPLY BECAUSE I AM DOWN ON THE GUY

    2 - This whole distortion stuff over the 1.8 is enough.  My final, final point and this sums it up completely. You can separate the increase in Slug from the increase in OBP for extra base hitting events so you don't have deal with this stuff about multicolinearity.
    It's as simple as this.  A guy with 9 AB's, 3 singles has a .333/.333/.333 line.   Any walk or hit, no matter what type, increases his OBP to .400.  That 67 pt increase is the fixed OBP increment for avoiding the out and gaining a single base.  A double increases his Slug to .500, 167 pt increase but still a 100 pt increase independent of the OBP bump.  Got it ????   So the guy got a 67 pt reward to OBP for getting 1 base but a 100 pt added reward to Slug (over the imbedded OBP bump) for gaining 1 more base with the double.
    Why should his Slug get a greater reward per base gained than OBP ?  Because of the way Slug is calculated, and some adjustment is needed to level the playing field.  But it gets worse, because the value of OBP isn't just gaining the extra base but in avoiding the out.  So when you calculate the REAL value with 0 on, 0 out the 67 bump to OBP from getting to 1st base/avoiding the out is .37 added runs to run expectancy = .0055 runs per pt. of OBP.   However, the extra 100 pts added to Slug (over and above imbedded OBP bump) by getting to 2b adds only .22 runs to RE beyond the value of gaining 1b alone.  Meaning that added pts. of SLug beyond the imbedded OBP bump = .0022 RE value per added pt of Slug meaning that viola  in this particular case a POINT OF OBP is worth 2.5 times a point of Slug.  (divide .0055 by .0022)

    WHAT A LOAD OF ABSOLUTE GIBBERISH!!!!!

    But 0 on, 0 out is just one of 24 different out/onbase scenarios, and each has a different value for  Slug v. OBP.  Obviously a double with men on 2nd and 3rd, 2 outs will produce a far greater value for Slug than raw OBP (ie., a walk).  Tango referred to these run expectancy tables and the frequency of each scenario in his article on this.  So he could compute values for Slug and OBP in each scenario and then adjust for the frequency of each one in the real world.  Since 0 on base is close to 60 % of all PA's, I see where their "average" value for a pt of OBP increase v. Slug increase (independent of the imbedded OBP) could be in the 1.7 -1.8 range.  

    ANOTHER OUTRIGHT LIE BY ROGER!!!  THE CHART ROGER IS REFERRING YIELDS NOTHING OF THE SORT!!!  OBNCE AGAIN HE FABRICATES TOTAL BULLSHIT BECAUSE HE DOESN'T KNOW WHAT HE IS TALKING ABOUT!!!!  

    My argument does NOT rest on blind faith in Tango or anyone else since their assumptions can be easily validated through basic logic and math.  Sure, he is far more knowledgeable on this subject than you or I, but the logic of what he was doing isn't that difficult to understand. 

    READING YOUR CRAP ITS OBVIOUS THAT THE LOGIC AS FLOWN COMPLETELY OVER YOUR HEAD!!!!  HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO CATCH YOU LYING AND MAKING THINGS UP BEFORE YOU ADMIT ITS YOUR EGO!!!.

    I'm done.  You haven't proved a damn thing in reality because you were only consumed in an ego contest and never a search for truth.  But that is so typical.

    I HAVE PROVEN IT OVER AND OVER  AND OVER AGAIN OVER THE PAST DECADE.

    ALL YOU DO IS LIE AND INSULT.

    ITS YOUR FREAKING EGO THAT HAS DRIVEN THIS BECAUSE EVERY SINGLE TIME I NAIL YOUR ASS TO THE WALL, YOU FABRICATE SOME BULLSHIT.
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:48 am

    BASIC MATH SAYS A SINGLE COUNTS IN BOTH OBP AND SLG AND BASIC LOGIC SAYS A SINGLE CAN'T BE WORTH 1.8 TIMES ITSELF!!!!!!

    MAYBE ROGER THE LIAR SHOULD GIVE TOM TANGO'S ANSWER TO THIS VERY OBVIOUS QUESTION INSTEAD OF MAKING UNPROVABLE CLAIMS ABOUT TANGO'S ALLEDGED SUPERIOR MATH APTITUDE!!!!

    BETTER YET, MAYBE ROGER THE MORON CAN FIND A SABR FORUM BOARD AND TAKE HIS NONSENSE THEIR.  I BET HE'D BE LAUGHED OFF IN WEEK GIVEN HIS POOR COMMAND OF THE SUBJECT MATTER
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:49 am

    SUPPOSEDLY THE RED SOX ARE IN TALKS WITH HAHN.


    TOO BAD JACKIE BRADLEY CAN'T LEADOFF
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:54 pm

    As to Leury, his defense looks adequate but IMO he's a .260/.300/.390 guy which is better than Engel and not a total embarrassment.


    *******************************



    And how the hell does this little bit of speculation show he's better than Adam Engel?!?!?!?


    Leury has a 599 lifetime OPS!!!!!  His OPS in the 2nd half of 2017 was 640!!!!  Aren't you the guy that loves to show bad 2nd halves are harbingers of doom?!?!?!?  Leury was hot for two months, got hurt, then reverted back to his old useless self.  You even admit he's a sub 700OPS guy.  And for that you want to throw away a guy that provides gold glove caliber defense in CF?!?!?!?  and that's real gold glove defense we all can see.  Not some bullshit stat who's flaws are widely known.  Not to mention the small sample size in Leury's case which can clearly distort the accuracy.


    Baseball Reference projects Engel at a 618 OPS in 2018.  How much higher does Leury have to be to overcome the very clear advantage Engel has in speed and defense?!?!?!  A hell of a lot higher than 640, that's for sure.  Given the weak nature of the overall team defense, I would say a lot higher than your 690 projection.  I makes little sense to play a guy with an average glove over a gold glove caliber defender when both are below average offensively.  And this goes double when you are rebuilding.  Leury adds nothing to the team.  Engel and least give you gold glove caliber defense which would actually help the pitching staff.


    If you actually understood sabermetrics and the nature of fielding stats you'd understand that fielding is not linear.  You'd understand that you can field 8 spots of players that are just adequate defensively.  8 guys that are just adequate add up to a below average defense.  In other words, when you skimp on defense, the whole will be less than the sum of its parts.  BTW the White Sox appear to be falling into this trap.  Especially if Davidson beats out Sanchez at 3B.
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:50 pm

    BASIC MATH SAYS A SINGLE COUNTS IN BOTH OBP AND SLG AND BASIC LOGIC SAYS A SINGLE CAN'T BE WORTH 1.8 TIMES ITSELF!!!!!!>.

    Obviously you're either disingenuous and deliberately ignored my example in the prior post or you just aren't that smart.  I said "You can separate the increase in Slug from the increase in OBP for extra base hitting events ". You can measure that separation independently and then see how it affects run values. Which is exactly what these researchers did.  
    http://www.pankin.com/sabr36.pdf

    it is possible to vary OBP without affecting SLG by varying the number of walks and to vary SLG without affecting OBP by changing the distribution of hits while leaving the number of hits the same. That is change some singles to extra base hits (in proportion to the actual distribution of extra base hits) or vice-versa. Will change OBP and SLG by +/- 10, 20 points and compare the change in expected runs to obtain ratios.-->>
    They even account for singles:
    <What about adding a point of SLG by adding a single?  That's different, because a single affects both SLG and OBP.  So, we need to do this in two steps: we add enough singles to raise SLG by a point, and then subtract enough walks to lower OBP back to where it was before. >

    But if this is a search for truth (is for me, but not you) we have to talk about one issue - singles.  Singles still make up roughly 60 % of the Slugging % number for most batters.  Singles move OBP and Slug by nearly the same amount yet singles are worth 1.25 times a BB due to runner advancement value v. the "pure OBP event" (a walk). So yes, singles refute the theory that 1 pt of OBP is worth 1.8 * 1  pt of Slug.  
    But doubles, triples, and HR's inflate the Slug number beyond its true run value to the point where
    an adjustment is needed. Bill James himself said it when he noted how the STDEV of Slug % was almost twice that of OBP. 
    Since Slug % number over-inflates the run value of EB hits so much more, that more than washes out the effect of the single. Yes, I know what you will do now.  Roger says that doubles, triples, and HR's are over-valued.  No, god no, it's just that Slug % from them increases at a greater rate than the incremental run value they create.  

    MAYBE ROGER THE LIAR SHOULD GIVE TOM TANGO'S ANSWER TO THIS VERY OBVIOUS QUESTION INSTEAD OF MAKING UNPROVABLE CLAIMS ABOUT TANGO'S ALLEDGED SUPERIOR MATH APTITUDE!!!!
    Maybe Kark the bigger fucking liar should stop lying about how I make things up about these studies when I've just proven that the examples I've used are how these studies are conducted, namely keep OBP constant, change Slug, keep Slug constant, change OBP.  Next case.


    BETTER YET, MAYBE ROGER THE MORON CAN FIND A SABR FORUM BOARD AND TAKE HIS NONSENSE THEIR.  I BET HE'D BE LAUGHED OFF IN WEEK GIVEN HIS POOR COMMAND OF THE SUBJECT MATTER>
    What a joke.  The comments you'd get from such a Board would be priceless. Since I'm not trained in the statistical disciplines, those on the Sabermetric boards would realize that I've approached this from a laymen's perspective.  But would probably believe that my using Run Expectancies is one decent approach to this problem. 


    No less than a dozen different research studies have validated this 1.8 * OBP and you come back with nothing more than superficial analysis and insults claiming they are all invalid.  That is the true joke.  
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:29 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:And how the hell does this little bit of speculation show he's better than Adam Engel?!?!?!?

    Leury has a 599 lifetime OPS!!!!!  His OPS in the 2nd half of 2017 was 640!!!!  Aren't you the guy that loves to show bad 2nd halves are harbingers of doom?!?!?!?  Leury was hot for two months, got hurt, then reverted back to his old useless self.  You even admit he's a sub 700OPS guy.  And for that you want to throw away a guy that provides gold glove caliber defense in CF?!?!?!?  and that's real gold glove defense we all can see.  Not some bullshit stat who's flaws are widely known.  Not to mention the small sample size in Leury's case which can clearly distort the accuracy.

    Baseball Reference projects Engel at a 618 OPS in 2018.  How much higher does Leury have to be to overcome the very clear advantage Engel has in speed and defense?!?!?!  A hell of a lot higher than 640, that's for sure.  Given the weak nature of the overall team defense, I would say a lot higher than your 690 projection.  I makes little sense to play a guy with an average glove over a gold glove caliber defender when both are below average offensively.  And this goes double when you are rebuilding.  Leury adds nothing to the team.  Engel and least give you gold glove caliber defense which would actually help the pitching staff.
    If you actually understood sabermetrics and the nature of fielding stats you'd understand that fielding is not linear.  You'd understand that you can field 8 spots of players that are just adequate defensively.  8 guys that are just adequate add up to a below average defense.  In other words, when you skimp on defense, the whole will be less than the sum of its parts.  BTW the White Sox appear to be falling into this trap.  Especially if Davidson beats out Sanchez at 3B.

    I'm not really sure about this assertion that "whole is less than sum of the parts".  A good CFer can cover ground that's missed by a weaker LF or RFer.  I suppose that the corollary is true.  A bad CFer can probably make a bad RFer or LFer even worse as a result.  Like to see some proof before any conclusion.

    As to Garcia's offense, you keep saying "bad second half" but it was really one bad month (August) along with basically two full good months.   And he hit .319 and .298 in Charlotte in 2016/2015 so the idea that he could hit .260-.270 is not outlandish.   Then again, I don't like his plate discipline and distrust that his 153 ISO last year is real.  Steamer has him projected at 257/302/383 which is about right. Engel, on the other hand, hasn't hit shit at any level and is projected at 608 this year.  His defense is better than Leury's but it has to be a whole helluva lot better to compensate for that spaghetti stick he carries to the plate.  
    Bottom line is that they both should be given some chance to play and let the better one (or probably more accurately lesser of two evils) win.  
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    Soxillinirob
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Soxillinirob on Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:26 pm

    rmapasad wrote:Obviously you're either disingenuous and deliberately ignored my example in the prior post or you just aren't that smart.

    You could have just written this and you'd have had a bullseye.
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    Hawk Harrelson
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Hawk Harrelson on Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:33 am

    If the Sox trade Abreu or Garcia, President Murph will give his impassioned White Sox Pride speech at the SFOD Christmas Gala.
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:40 am

    Soxillinirob wrote:
    rmapasad wrote:Obviously you're either disingenuous and deliberately ignored my example in the prior post or you just aren't that smart.

    You could have just written this and you'd have had a bullseye.

    this coming from the board's biggest liar.  Figures you'd defend the 2nd biggest liar.  and yes, I have caught roger telling lie after lie after lie in the decade hebeen trying to justify this out right crap

    a month a go you claimed you couldn't follow his example.

    so which is it mr hypocrit

    BTW, i have yet to see how this 1.8 crap is even useful or practical.  Just a bunch of bad math by the term paper writer

    and I love how he is now using the term imbedded in a pathetic attempt to sound more technical

    apparently you two forget sabermetircs was a hobby of mine for about 20 year.  Even attempted a stats major at U of I but courses like Math 364, a sadistic mix of statistics and calculus.  Fortunately, I took enough math to get an Econ degree focusing on Econometrics.  so spare me this crap that Tom Tango is some freaking genius.  1) he is not here spewing bullshit.  2) the man is not infallable anf this ain't rocket science 3) He'd probably be pissed if he saw how Roger was completely making a mess of his research.
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:14 am

    rmapasad wrote:BASIC MATH SAYS A SINGLE COUNTS IN BOTH OBP AND SLG AND BASIC LOGIC SAYS A SINGLE CAN'T BE WORTH 1.8 TIMES ITSELF!!!!!!>.

    Obviously you're either disingenuous and deliberately ignored my example in the prior post or you just aren't that smart.  I said "You can separate the increase in Slug from the increase in OBP for extra base hitting events ". You can measure that separation independently and then see how it affects run values. Which is exactly what these researchers did.  
    http://www.pankin.com/sabr36.pdf

    LMAO!!!!  the above article is nothing but mathematical masterbation.  Please tell me the page where Pankin suggests any practical application of this all important research


    it is possible to vary OBP without affecting SLG by varying the number of walks and to vary SLG without affecting OBP by changing the distribution of hits while leaving the number of hits the same. That is change some singles to extra base hits (in proportion to the actual distribution of extra base hits) or vice-versa. Will change OBP and SLG by +/- 10, 20 points and compare the change in expected runs to obtain ratios.-->>
    They even account for singles:
    <What about adding a point of SLG by adding a single?  That's different, because a single affects both SLG and OBP.  So, we need to do this in two steps: we add enough singles to raise SLG by a point, and then subtract enough walks to lower OBP back to where it was before. >

    Hey Einstein!!!  Maybe you should read the article.  all this guy is doing is playing with various formula that estimates runs!!!!  I bet none of these clowns can explain how to hold OBP or SLG constant on the actual playing field.  change the distribution of hits.  What gibberish.  More like making it up as you go along


    But if this is a search for truth (is for me, but not you)

    fuck you you arrogant ass

    we have to talk about one issue - singles.  Singles still make up roughly 60 % of the Slugging % number for most batters.  Singles move OBP and Slug by nearly the same amount yet singles are worth 1.25 times a BB due to runner advancement value v. the "pure OBP event" (a walk). So yes, singles refute the theory that 1 pt of OBP is worth 1.8 * 1  pt of Slug.  
    But doubles, triples, and HR's inflate the Slug number beyond its true run value to the point where
    an adjustment is needed.  Bill James himself said it when he noted how the STDEV of Slug % was almost twice that of OBP. Since Slug % number over-inflates the run value of EB hits so much more, that more than washes out the effect of the single. Yes, I know what you will do now.  Roger says that doubles, triples, and HR's are over-valued.  No, god no, it's just that Slug % from them increases at a greater rate than the incremental run value they create.  

    Is this more of your fabricated bullshit, or is this somebody else's mathematical masterbation.  

    MAYBE ROGER THE LIAR SHOULD GIVE TOM TANGO'S ANSWER TO THIS VERY OBVIOUS QUESTION INSTEAD OF MAKING UNPROVABLE CLAIMS ABOUT TANGO'S ALLEDGED SUPERIOR MATH APTITUDE!!!!
    Maybe Kark the bigger fucking liar should stop lying about how I make things up about these studies when I've just proven that the examples I've used are how these studies are conducted, namely keep OBP constant, change Slug, keep Slug constant, change OBP.  Next case.

    Again, all you have shown is gibberish


    BETTER YET, MAYBE ROGER THE MORON CAN FIND A SABR FORUM BOARD AND TAKE HIS NONSENSE THEIR.  I BET HE'D BE LAUGHED OFF IN WEEK GIVEN HIS POOR COMMAND OF THE SUBJECT MATTER>
    What a joke.  The comments you'd get from such a Board would be priceless. Since I'm not trained in the statistical disciplines, those on the Sabermetric boards would realize that I've approached this from a laymen's perspective.  But would probably believe that my using Run Expectancies is one decent approach to this problem. 

    LMAO!!!!  Your run expectancies crap explained nothing!!!!!  all you did was mentioned the 24 states then made some bullshit claim about how the overall average comes to 1.8.  Yet nowhere to so show the process of getting there.  and you wonder why I think your an arrogant liar.


    No less than a dozen different research studies have validated this 1.8 * OBP and you come back with nothing more than superficial analysis and insults claiming they are all invalid.  That is the true joke.  

    No, the true joke is that hobbyists and hacks attempt to turn a kids game into advanced calculus and you claim they are some kind of genius.  And yes, my research does trump all of theirs because it explains in simple layman's terms what it means and how the number is derived.  I'll save the rest for the SABR board you are suppose to find, then we will see how priceless the comments from the socalled experts are.  I bet it blows your run expectancies bullshit out of the park
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    Soxillinirob
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Soxillinirob on Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:24 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:


    apparently you two forget sabermetircs was a hobby of mine for about 20 year.  Even attempted a stats major at U of I but courses like Math 364, a sadistic mix of statistics and calculus.  Fortunately, I took enough math to get an Econ degree focusing on Econometrics.  so spare me this crap that Tom Tango is some freaking genius.  1) he is not here spewing bullshit.  2) the man is not infallable anf this ain't rocket science 3) He'd probably be pissed if he saw how Roger was completely making a mess of his research.

    That's great and all, but I'm also a math and engineering major, and nothing you have said has ever served to debunk or embarrass Roger's points.  I'll not pretend I'm an expert on co linearity, and I stopped teaching AP high school math in 1998, but Roger's explanations are a hell of a lot easier to follow and understand than anything you've stated.  Actually, you just mock him and call him names.  Rarely do you provide any kind of analysis that can be followed.  You tell him he's an idiot and laugh at him because you just figure there aren't any math geniuses here that can really argue with you or put you in your place.  Roger's layout and analyses aren't that hard to follow, and I don't recall telling you I couldn't follow them.  I'll tell you this much, though....I'm not interested enough to WANT to follow it.  I occasionally read it in an effort see if it makes sense and, in Roger's case, it does.  It's tiring.  You're a big mouth and a bully, jumping around on the playground declaring yourself some kind of genius and winner of some kind of battle that exists inside of your head.  Trust me when I tell you this....nobody here believes that you've outsmarted him.  Nobody thinks you're getting the best of him.  Nobody thinks he's full of shit.  Nobody.  Nobody.  Nobody.  And deep down, you don't, either.  You just don't admit it.  You just declare victory and hope we're too dumb to know otherwise.  We may not all be math experts, but we're not as dumb as you think we are.
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:27 am

    Hawk Harrelson wrote:If the Sox trade Abreu or Garcia, President Murph will give his impassioned White Sox Pride speech at the SFOD Christmas Gala.


    Fangraphs claims Boston would be ripping themsleves off if they did Bradley for Abreau straight up.


    They must be assuming that Bradley bounces back to his 2015-16 production level with the bat.


    Not crazy about Bradley because he doesn't lead off.  But he is suppose to be a stud defensively.  Imagine Adam Engel actually hitting
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    Re: Jose Abreau

    Post by alohafri on Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:28 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    Hawk Harrelson wrote:If the Sox trade Abreu or Garcia, President Murph will give his impassioned White Sox Pride speech at the SFOD Christmas Gala.


    Fangraphs claims Boston would be ripping themsleves off if they did Bradley for Abreau straight up.


    They must be assuming that Bradley bounces back to his 2015-16 production level with the bat.


    Not crazy about Bradley because he doesn't lead off.  But he is suppose to be a stud defensively.  Imagine Adam Engel actually hitting

    Bradley wouldn't make sense because he's only under control until 2020, when the rebuild will really be seeing fruition.

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