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    What's Happened to Sox Pitching ?

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    rmapasad
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    What's Happened to Sox Pitching ?

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:34 pm

    Was just looking at the rankings of Sox pitching over the last twenty years basically in 3 segments
    2012 - 2017, 2005 - 2011, 1998 - 2004.

    From 2005 through 2011, Sox pitching was # 1 in baseball and it wasn't even close.  Sox had # 1 or 2 ranked pitching in majors for four of those seasons (2011, 2010, 2008, 2005) and were 4th ranked in 2006 and 9th ranked in 2007.  That was the Buehrle, Danks, Floyd era.

    But in the recent period 2012- 2017, Sox have ranked 17th on average.  Only in one season (2015) have they even cracked the top 10 and they were 9th ranked then.  2014 and 2017 (29th) have been rock bottom.  This is during the Sale/Quintana era.

    This is about comparable to the 1998-2004 period where Sox pitching was pretty lousy too.

    What's gone wrong ?  Has the game passed Cooper by ?   He no longer looks like the genius he once was.
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    alohafri
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    Re: What's Happened to Sox Pitching ?

    Post by alohafri on Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:12 am

    rmapasad wrote:Was just looking at the rankings of Sox pitching over the last twenty years basically in 3 segments
    2012 - 2017, 2005 - 2011, 1998 - 2004.

    From 2005 through 2011, Sox pitching was # 1 in baseball and it wasn't even close.  Sox had # 1 or 2 ranked pitching in majors for four of those seasons (2011, 2010, 2008, 2005) and were 4th ranked in 2006 and 9th ranked in 2007.  That was the Buehrle, Danks, Floyd era.

    But in the recent period 2012- 2017, Sox have ranked 17th on average.  Only in one season (2015) have they even cracked the top 10 and they were 9th ranked then.  2014 and 2017 (29th) have been rock bottom.  This is during the Sale/Quintana era.

    This is about comparable to the 1998-2004 period where Sox pitching was pretty lousy too.

    What's gone wrong ?  Has the game passed Cooper by ?   He no longer looks like the genius he once was.

    He's too busy calling fans "dooshbags."
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: What's Happened to Sox Pitching ?

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:20 am

    12 AND 13 MAN BULLPENS
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    rmapasad
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    Re: What's Happened to Sox Pitching ?

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:18 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:12 AND 13 MAN BULLPENS
     

    Talking about 12 and 13 man pitching staffs, obviously. 
    It hasn't been over-reliance on bullpens that has plagued Sox pitching.   Actually
    the opposite.  Sox starting pitchers have thrown more innings than they've deserved to pitch given their quality.   

    YEAR             Sox Starting Pitcher Rank in IP     Sox Starting Pitcher Rank in WAR
    2015              1                                                     7 
    2016              4                                                    12  
    2017             20                                                   30 

    Looks to me like Sox front office and/or Cooper haven't adapted to latest developments where bullpens have become more critical. Even when the Sox starters were garbage this year they were left in to get battered.  Similar trends in 2015-2016.
    Also look who the Sox traded away this year - 4 of their top 5 relievers (Kahnle, Schwarzak, Robertson, Clippard).   Robertson was an understandable salary dump but Kahnle and Schwarzak were still relatively cheap and under Sox control for a while.

    Hard to figure out the Sox's strategy when it comes to bullpens.  Clearly a lot of other teams are paying closer attention to that. 
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: What's Happened to Sox Pitching ?

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:57 pm

    Hard to figure out the Sox's strategy when it comes to bullpens.


    ****************************


    THAT'S EASY


    ONE APPEARANCE EQUALS ONE INNING


    AND JUST WHAT ARE THE LATEST BULLPEN DEVELOPS?!?!?!?


    SOUNDS LIKE THE TYPE OF CRAP ROBZ WOULD INVENT
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    rmapasad
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    Re: What's Happened to Sox Pitching ?

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:03 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Hard to figure out the Sox's strategy when it comes to bullpens.


    ****************************

    THAT'S EASY
    ONE APPEARANCE EQUALS ONE INNING
    AND JUST WHAT ARE THE LATEST BULLPEN DEVELOPS?!?!?!?
    SOUNDS LIKE THE TYPE OF CRAP ROBZ WOULD INVENT

    Latest bullpen developments in major league baseball (average team) 

    2017 - Avg bullpen IP = 549      Avg Starter IP = 892 
    2016   Avg Bullpen IP = 530      Avg Starter IP = 913
    2015   Avg Bullpen IP = 506      Avg Starter IP = 940

    Pretty clear what's happening last three years ever since Royals won WS in 2015 with heavy reliance on their bullpen. Sox have also increased their bullpen IP as well. But as noted before they are one of the more old-school teams in terms of giving starting pitchers more IP than warranted based on the quality of pitching those starters deliver.
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: What's Happened to Sox Pitching ?

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:14 pm

    But as noted before they are one of the more old-school teams in terms of giving starting pitchers more IP than warranted based on the quality of pitching those starters deliver.



    ************************


    I wouldn't make any blanket statements regarding the White Sox pitching philosophy based on the 2017 season other than that they are all trade bait.


    BTW, when you give away your entire bullpen the last week of July, of course you are going to rely more on the starters.


    My guess, any drop in the quality of White Sox pitching is being driven by lack of talent.  Not the refusal to adopt some pitching philosophy de jour.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: What's Happened to Sox Pitching ?

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:14 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:But as noted before they are one of the more old-school teams in terms of giving starting pitchers more IP than warranted based on the quality of pitching those starters deliver.



    ************************


    I wouldn't make any blanket statements regarding the White Sox pitching philosophy based on the 2017 season other than that they are all trade bait.
    BTW, when you give away your entire bullpen the last week of July, of course you are going to rely more on the starters.
    My guess, any drop in the quality of White Sox pitching is being driven by lack of talent.  Not the refusal to adopt some pitching philosophy de jour.


    This isn't based strictly on the 2017 season.  It was also true in 2016-2015.  Plus there was virtually no difference between the IP/game  of relievers in 1st half (3.40) and 2nd half (3.35)  despite the trades of Kahnle, Robertson, etc.  
    Going forward, Sox have some choices to make. Certainly don't want to see Gioloto or Lopez get over-worked plus Shields and the other 2 rotation guys are likely to be low inning stiffs.  Having 8 bullpen guys is the way to go since even the good starters are basically 5.3-6.3  inning guys and the crap starters can be 4-5 inning types.  That means a lot of innings for middle relievers.  Who are cheaper and easier to find.
    Several might even turn into something more useful (Closer, setup or even Starter like Sale did after a bullpen stint). 
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    rmapasad
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    Re: What's Happened to Sox Pitching ?

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:08 pm

    My guess, any drop in the quality of White Sox pitching is being driven by lack of talent.  Not the refusal to adopt some pitching philosophy de jour>>
    The increased use of relief is far from a fad of the day.   It is an established trend throughout the history of baseball.  Every decade has seen a rise of at least 10% in pitchers used per game except for one decade which was the 1970's when PPG stayed at around 2.5 per game. By 1997 it was up to 3.5 PPG and has risen steadily almost every year to today's 4.22.  
    Pitchers are throwing harder and can't last the same # of IP. Plus  scouting has gotten so sophisticated (they're using IPads in the dugout now to pinpoint what opposing pitchers are doing) that SP's are getting raked routinely their 3rd time through the order.   Last but not least when premier SP's are making $ 25 mil + and even so-so SP's make $ 10-12 mil per, clubs are opting for fewer of those and more $ 3-5 mil starters and $ 1-5 million relievers.   Sure, MLB needs to speed up games and limit pitching changes.  But no way is the game returning to the good ole days of the 1970's and 1980's and 2-3 pitchers per game.
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: What's Happened to Sox Pitching ?

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:34 am

    I am well aware of this


    But what you are neglecting to mention is that not only are starters pitching fewer innings, they are getting more rest between starts.


    How much of that rest is really necessary?


    the added rest doesn't seem to be preventing injuries.


    Maybe the way to go is the old chuck Tanner idea of a 3 by 3 pitching staff.


    BTW, I refute the assertion that the good ole days will never be back.  I say its more like currently there isn't a team with the balls to try it.


    and having 8 relievers is not necessarily the way to go.  Just because it worked for the 2015 royals doesn't mean it will work for the 2020 White Sox.  If you understtod your baseball history, you'd see plenty examples of teams winning by bucking the conventional wisdom and refusing to conform to some one size fits all strategy
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: What's Happened to Sox Pitching ?

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:37 am

    And another thing


    John Dewan, a real sabrmatician, did a study in the hardball times, 2006 I believe, that showed that the less work pitchers get early in the year, the more likely it is they have a lesser 2nd half.


    the theory behind this result is that pitchers are not building up there arms enough due to fewer wotk


    You need to understand that the season is a marathon and that you build endurance by excercising, not resting your muscles
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    rmapasad
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    Re: What's Happened to Sox Pitching ?

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:56 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:and having 8 relievers is not necessarily the way to go.  Just because it worked for the 2015 royals doesn't mean it will work for the 2020 White Sox.  If you understtod your baseball history, you'd see plenty examples of teams winning by bucking the conventional wisdom and refusing to conform to some one size fits all strategy

    When it comes to pitching though, it's evident that opponents are getting to even the stud starting pitchers 3rd time through the order, so you have to gear your club to the 6 or at most 7 inning start by the really good pitchers and 4-5 innings by the mediocre ones.  That puts a lot of pressure on bullpens as Dodgers found out with their overworked 'pen in the World Series. 

    Used to be the starter could give you 7 plus solid then it was Setup, a LHed specialist for LHed hitters, and the Closer.  But if starters are only giving you 4-5 innings too often and 6 at best, then clubs need solutions for innings 5-7 so they can save their studs for innings 8+9.  Meaning that 2-3 inning "semi-starter" type middle innings relievers may become the new rage. 
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: What's Happened to Sox Pitching ?

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri Nov 17, 2017 2:25 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:and having 8 relievers is not necessarily the way to go.  Just because it worked for the 2015 royals doesn't mean it will work for the 2020 White Sox.  If you understtod your baseball history, you'd see plenty examples of teams winning by bucking the conventional wisdom and refusing to conform to some one size fits all strategy

    When it comes to pitching though, it's evident that opponents are getting to even the stud starting pitchers 3rd time through the order, so you have to gear your club to the 6 or at most 7 inning start by the really good pitchers and 4-5 innings by the mediocre ones.  That puts a lot of pressure on bullpens as Dodgers found out with their overworked 'pen in the World Series. 

    Used to be the starter could give you 7 plus solid then it was Setup, a LHed specialist for LHed hitters, and the Closer.  But if starters are only giving you 4-5 innings too often and 6 at best, then clubs need solutions for innings 5-7 so they can save their studs for innings 8+9.  Meaning that 2-3 inning "semi-starter" type middle innings relievers may become the new rage. 


    Your semi starter makes tons of sense.  And the KARK eluded to this when he complained that OUR White Sox typical go one inning per appearance for their bullpen.


    If you do the math, you will see almost all games are confined within 5 lineup turns.  In other words, 9 batters time 5 plate appearances minus 27 outs leaves you with 18.  It is rare for a team to reach base 19 or more times in a 9 inning game.


    working backwards, this is what the KARK would do.
    1) go for 2 inning saves.  That's about 1 lineup turn.
    2) Try to get 3 turns out of your starter.  That's roughly 5 innings.
    3) Have your semi starter fill the gap.  so that's 3 pitchers for a whole 9 inning game.  that beats the hell out of 3 pitchers for the 8th inning alone.


    another thing, maybe these socalled sabrmaticians can start calulating rest necessary by pitch count


    As an educated guess, the KARK would say zero rest for less than 20 pitches. 1 day for less than 40.  2 days for less than 60.  etc etc etc.  to me, it is beyond stupid that everybody gets 5 days regardless of how little or how long he pitched.  I'd see OUR White Sox go days without a starter needed 90 pitches.  When that happens, skip the Dylan Coveys of the world.  Let hjim pitch out of the pen.  Or better yet, in AAA and bring up some bench help

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