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    SABR Defensive Index

    Post by Guest on Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:18 pm

    http://sabr.org/sdi/2017-final



    Some  notes


    1) Tim Anderson was the worst defensive SS in the AL according to this metric.  Honestly, this is a shock to me.  Yes he had the error, but I thought he had range and a strong arm.  Fortunately for Anderson, the White Sox have nobody else and his super hot September will prevent them from looking.  


    2) Todd Frazier 2nd best defensive 3B.  Matt Davidson was not listed.


    3) Yolmer is only rated 5th at 2B.  That's low compared to some of the other fielding metrics I looked at.  To be honest, I cannot tell if this SDI stuff is a total or an average.  Yolmer only played 78 games at 2B, so if its a total, then his total times 2 places him at the second best fielding 2B in 2017.  Again, I have no idea if that is valid or not.  Regardless, he's in the top 1/3 no matter how you slice it


    4) Avisail Garcia is #4 in RF in the AL.  So the talk about his subpar defense appears to be outdated on obsolete.


    5) SABR did not list a CF for the White Sox.  However Lorenzo Cain came in at #2


    6) RA Dickey was the NL best fielding pitcher in 2017 according to this metric.
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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:31 am

    SDI system was a compromise that allowed some defensive metrics to creep into the Gold Glove voting but SDI has subjective stuff ("excellent and poor fielding plays"). UZR and BIS measure the % of plays a guy makes in his zone relative to league average.  Even those are somewhat subjective as the rater has to determine what is in a zone and how "playable" a ball is.  

    So it is no surprise that these different defensive systems produce different ratings.  In terms of UZR (Fan Graphs) and BIS (Baseball Reference) and a third system (NOT used by SDI) which I like called Inside Edge, here is where all the systems tend to agree:



    1st- Sanchez is the Sox's best defensive player in all 3 systems at both 3b and 2b.   His 16.7 UZR/150 at 3b topped Frazier's 10.2 and Sanchez's 9.4 at 2b was second only to Leury Garcia's 9.6 in CF.   In BIS, Sanchez led the team at 15 runs above average. No one else was even close.
    In Inside Edge, Sanchez led the Sox in difficult plays made (those where other fielders make the play less than 60% of the time.)  Reasonable to say Sanchez was the Sox's top defensive player in 2017 and was one of the league's top defenders at both 2b and 3b.

    2nd - Matt Davidson, Melky Cabrera, Jose Abreu and Tim Anderson were subpar in all 3 systems.


    Here is where the systems tended to disagree:
    1st - Moncada.  BIS had him second to Sanchez in saving 6 RAA.  UZR had him at -9 runs/150 games.  Inside Edge had him above average in tough plays, but below average in easy/moderately easy plays. 


    2nd - Leury Garcia.  UZR loved him at 9.6 RAA, where BIS had him above avg. but not by a lot.

    He was above average in difficult plays in IE but not by that much.

    3rd - Avisail Garcia.   UZR had him 4 runs below average, and BIS had him at average.  Inside Edge had him very solid on routine or semi-routine plays but not good on making difficult plays.   Fair to say he improved his bad defense from prior years but SDI ranking him a +4 must be based on giving his arm a lot more credit than the other systems do.  Deterring other runners from taking the extra base can be measured, but what isn't accounted for is how many of those runners are slow enough that they wouldn't take the extra base on any OFer.   Leury Garcia also ranked highly on this one.


    4th - Todd Frazier.   UZR had him second only to Sanchez but BIS ranked him only average.


    Fair to say that these defensive systems are still a work in progress, but when you tend to get agreement from different systems that usually carries the best reliability.

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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by Guest on Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:25 pm

    rmapasad wrote:SDI system was a compromise that allowed some defensive metrics to creep into the Gold Glove voting but SDI has subjective stuff ("excellent and poor fielding plays"). UZR and BIS measure the % of plays a guy makes in his zone relative to league average.  Even those are somewhat subjective as the rater has to determine what is in a zone and how "playable" a ball is.  

    So it is no surprise that these different defensive systems produce different ratings.  In terms of UZR (Fan Graphs) and BIS (Baseball Reference) and a third system (NOT used by SDI) which I like called Inside Edge, here is where all the systems tend to agree:



    1st- Sanchez is the Sox's best defensive player in all 3 systems at both 3b and 2b.   His 16.7 UZR/150 at 3b topped Frazier's 10.2 and Sanchez's 9.4 at 2b was second only to Leury Garcia's 9.6 in CF.   In BIS, Sanchez led the team at 15 runs above average. No one else was even close.
    In Inside Edge, Sanchez led the Sox in difficult plays made (those where other fielders make the play less than 60% of the time.)  Reasonable to say Sanchez was the Sox's top defensive player in 2017 and was one of the league's top defenders at both 2b and 3b.

    NO DENYING YOLMER'S DEFENSE.  THE REAL QUESTION: IS HE A 10 YEAR SOLUTION AT 2B?

    2nd - Matt Davidson, Melky Cabrera, Jose Abreu and Tim Anderson were subpar in all 3 systems.

    I VIEW ANDERSON'S RATING AS I WOULD EINSTEIN GETTING A "D" IN A CLASS DUE TO MISSING HOMEWORK, TURNING IN MAJOR ASSIGNMENTS LATE, NOT STUDYING FOR TESTS, ZERO CLASS PARTICIPATION...   THE TOOLS ARE THERE.  HE HAS ABOUT 2 YEARS TO LEARN HOW TO USE THEM OR ELSE HE BECOMES THE EBONIC EQUIVALENT OF MIKE CARUSO.

    AS FOR DAVIDSON, CHICKS DIG THE LONG BALL.  I SUSPECT THE WHITE SOX WILL COMPLETELY IGNORE INFIELD DEFENSE UNDER THE IDEA THAT A BUNCH OF HOMERS WILL MITIGATE SUBPAR DEFENSE AT 2B & 3B



    Here is where the systems tended to disagree:
    1st - Moncada.  BIS had him second to Sanchez in saving 6 RAA.  UZR had him at -9 runs/150 games.  Inside Edge had him above average in tough plays, but below average in easy/moderately easy plays. 

    THE BIG QUESTION, JUST HOW GOOD IS MONCADA DEFENSIVELY.  PERSONALLY, I DON'T WANT HIM AT 2B IF HIS GLOVE IS JUST AVERAGE.  YOUR 2B NEEDS TO CLEARLY BE BETTER THAN AVERAGE.  SCOUTING REPORTS FROM A YEAR OR TWO AGO IMPLY, OR IS IT INFER, MONCADA FIELDS BETTER AT 3B


    2nd - Leury Garcia.  UZR loved him at 9.6 RAA, where BIS had him above avg. but not by a lot.

    He was above average in difficult plays in IE but not by that much.

    I SUPPOSE HE DOES DESERVE A CHANCE TO PROVE HE IS NOT A FLUKE.  BUT MY GUT SAYS REPLACE HIM ASAP

    3rd - Avisail Garcia.   UZR had him 4 runs below average, and BIS had him at average.  Inside Edge had him very solid on routine or semi-routine plays but not good on making difficult plays.   Fair to say he improved his bad defense from prior years but SDI ranking him a +4 must be based on giving his arm a lot more credit than the other systems do.  Deterring other runners from taking the extra base can be measured, but what isn't accounted for is how many of those runners are slow enough that they wouldn't take the extra base on any OFer.   Leury Garcia also ranked highly on this one.

    AVISAIL IS ARE CONSIDERED ONE OF THE WORKING WORKING, ALWAYS HUSTLING WHITE SOX PLAYERS.  HE'S NO DWIGHT EVANS, BUT I SAY HE HELPS MORE THAN HURTS IN RF.  ASSUMING HE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE, PLUS ADAM ENGEL AT LEAST HALF THE INNINGS IN CF MINUS MELKEY CABRERA AND THE WHITE SOX SHOULD HAVE SOME GOOD OUTFIELD DEFENSE


    4th - Todd Frazier.   UZR had him second only to Sanchez but BIS ranked him only average.

    TODD WASN'T SO GOOD WITH THE GLOVE A YEAR B4.  SO I GUESS FLUKE GLOVE YEARS CAN HAPPEN JUST LIKE FLUKE YEARS WITH THE BAT.


    Fair to say that these defensive systems are still a work in progress, but when you tend to get agreement from different systems that usually carries the best reliability.

    THE REAL ISSUE IS THAT THE WHITE SOX CAN TRY TO REBUILD WITH A CRAP DEFENSE, OR THEY CAN TRY TO REBUILD WITH A LESS SEXY OFFENSE.


    MONCADA AT 2B AND DAVIDSON AT 3B IS CLEARLY A HITTING FIRST/DEFENSE BE DAMNED PHILOSOPHY.


    THE OUTFIELD IS MORE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS BECAUSE ALL THE PLAYERS NOT NAMED AVISAIL HAVE SERIOUS FLAWS AND OR QUESTION MARKS.  I'M SURE THE WHITE SOX WOULD JUST LOVE TO STICK ADAM ENGEL INN CF AND FORGET ABOUT IT.  BUT THAT 166 BA KINDA MAKES THAT IMPOSSIBLE.  LUERY GARCIA AND NICK DELMONICO JUST SCREAM FLUKE.  WILY GARCIA HAS THE TOOLS BUT DOES HE HAVE A TOOL BOX.


    THE WHITE SOX WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE TO FIND AN LF AND CF TO PLAY THE FIRST HALF.  SO THEY DON'T HAVE THE LUXURY TO LOOK FOR A SPECIFIC SKILL SET BECAUSE ANY ACTUAL SKILL SEEMS TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN


    BTW, ELOY JIMINEZ, DESPITE HAVING A STRONG ARM, DOESN'T RATE HIGHLY WITH THE GLOVE.  SO AGAIN, TOP NOTCH DEFENSE IN CF IS ESSENTIAL
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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:46 pm

    1- Sanchez could be a long-term solution at 2b if he could hit well enough and IF the Sox had the balls to move Moncada instead of just giving him a lifetime lock at 2b.  I am 50-50 on Sanchez's hitting enough for 2b but 80-20 on the Sox not moving Moncada.  So Sanchez's 2018 chance to start is probably 3b where despite his good glove, it's 30-70 he'll hit enough for that spot. Then it comes to whether Davidson and/or Delmonico hit so well that their defensive issues don't matter. In which case, Sanchez has to take a seat. 


    2- Anderson's struggles both with bat and glove in 2017 may be connected to same issue: despite his athletism does he have the head for the major league game ? He was 27th overall in UZR/150 among SS's with errors as his big bugaboo.  But he finished 9th among all SS's in range in getting to balls so if he cuts the errors, that gets him to average or somewhat better defensively. 


    3- OF defense is a crapshoot.  Garcia was better than in prior years but still doesn't track well on semi-difficult or harder FB's.  Leury and maybe Tilson (if he ever gets back on the field again) handle CF defensively, particularly Engel, but can they hit enough ? Doubtful, and in Engel's case that looks like Mission Impossible.  LF is bound to be better than the crappola from Melky but you also need hitting there too, and Jiminez at least fits that bill. Robert could be long-term CFer. 



    With the various question marks at 3b, LF and CF, Moncada, who has the skillset for all of those defensively and offensively, could be an interesting option. But I doubt that Sox will pursue that option. 

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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by Guest on Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:44 pm

    1- Sanchez could be a long-term solution at 2b if he could hit well enough and IF the Sox had the balls to move Moncada instead of just giving him a lifetime lock at 2b.  I am 50-50 on Sanchez's hitting enough for 2b but 80-20 on the Sox not moving Moncada.  So Sanchez's 2018 chance to start is probably 3b where despite his good glove, it's 30-70 he'll hit enough for that spot. Then it comes to whether Davidson and/or Delmonico hit so well that their defensive issues don't matter. In which case, Sanchez has to take a seat.  




    ****************************




    WHICH BRINGS ME BACK TO MY MAIN CONCERN.  THE CONSTANT SACRIFICING OF DEFENSE JUST TO STICK WHAT IS PERCEIVED AS ANOTHER BAT IN THE LINEUP.




    AGAIN, DEFENSE IS NOT LINEAR.  INDIVIDUALLY, EACH MIGHT BE GOOD ENOUGH.  COLLECTIVELY, THEY ARE A SWISS CHEESE BECAUSE THE WHOLE IS LESS THAN THE SUM OF THE PARTS.  




    ITS BAD ENOUGH THAT THE YOUNG ROTATION LOOKS TO BE SABOTAGED BY A NO NAME BULLPEN.  HOW MANY EXTRA PITCHES WILL THESE KIDS HAVE TO THROW BECAUSE FIELDING WILL ALWAYS TAKE A BACK SEAT TO HITTING IN THIS ORG




    LOSING 2-1 COUNTS JUST THE SAME AS LOSING 8-7
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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:15 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:ITS BAD ENOUGH THAT THE YOUNG ROTATION LOOKS TO BE SABOTAGED BY A NO NAME BULLPEN.  HOW MANY EXTRA PITCHES WILL THESE KIDS HAVE TO THROW BECAUSE FIELDING WILL ALWAYS TAKE A BACK SEAT TO HITTING IN THIS ORG

    Fielding has hardly been a Sox priority recently looking at their defensive ranks of all teams in majors:
    2017 - 27th
    2016 - 20th 
    2015 - 30th
    2014 - 28th
    2013 - 25th

    Poor fielding, however, wasn't the culprit for crappy 2017 pitching (25th ranked in ERA).  Shit pitchers (Shields, Pelfrey, Covey, Holland, etc) were. Sox were 29th in K's, 30th in BB prevention, and 29th in HR prevention.   A team full of Ozzie Smiths in the infield and Willie Mays in the OF couldn't rescue a pitching staff that bad.

    Plus, bad fielding hasn't been a death sentence for AL teams as of late.  Astros ranked 29th in fielding this year, and their ALCS foe (Yankees) were 23rd. In 2015, the Blue Jays also made the ALCS being ranked 23rd in defense.  BUT those teams all had awesome offenses to offset the bad fielding.. Astros were first in offense by miles this year, Yankees were 2nd, and Jays were 1st in 2015.  Plus Astros had decent pitching this year (2nd in majors in K's).
    Lesson is that if the Sox still want to disregard fielding the way they have last 5 years then they have to have unbelievably good hitting and pitching to offset that. 

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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by Guest on Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:32 am

    Lesson is that if the Sox still want to disregard fielding the way they have last 5 years then they have to have unbelievably good hitting and pitching to offset that. 


    ******************************


    WHICH THEY DON'T

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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by Guest on Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:54 am

    Poor fielding, however, wasn't the culprit for crappy 2017 pitching (25th ranked in ERA).  Shit pitchers (Shields, Pelfrey, Covey, Holland, etc) were. Sox were 29th in K's, 30th in BB prevention, and 29th in HR prevention.   A team full of Ozzie Smiths in the infield and Willie Mays in the OF couldn't rescue a pitching staff that bad.



    *****************************


    Last year is last year.  I'm concerned about 2018


    Giolito looks to be the opening day starter.  Lopez is probably #2.  Fulmer looks to make the rotation.  At some point Rodon will be healthy and Kopech will be recalled...


    Lord knows what the bullpen will look like, but my guess it will be filled with mostly hard throwing youth.


    Which brings me back to Lorenzo Cain.  The White Sox need a CF leadoff guy NOW.  If Cain is too old and too costly, target somebody else.  I would bet Kevin's pension that they could find somebody with that skill set.


    Get a Cain like player in CF and use Adam Engel as a late inning defensive LF and now you have a real OF defense at least at closing time.


    Move Yolmer to 2B full time.  Pray Moncada and Anderson can translate their obvious physical talent into on field results and now you have a real infield defense.


    Not saying that team wins.  But I am saying it will help the young pitching develop since better defense implies fewer outs given away which implies fewer pitches thrown which is suppose to be a good thing.


    the reason Mark Buehrle was loved so much is that 2:15 is long enough to watch a MLB game
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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by rmapasad on Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:35 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Giolito looks to be the opening day starter.  Lopez is probably #2.  Fulmer looks to make the rotation.  At some point Rodon will be healthy and Kopech will be recalled...
    Which brings me back to Lorenzo Cain.  The White Sox need a CF leadoff guy NOW.  If Cain is too old and too costly, target somebody else.  I would bet Kevin's pension that they could find somebody with that skill set.
    Get a Cain like player in CF and use Adam Engel as a late inning defensive LF and now you have a real OF defense at least at closing time.
    Move Yolmer to 2B full time.  Pray Moncada and Anderson can translate their obvious physical talent into on field results and now you have a real infield defense.
    Not saying that team wins.  But I am saying it will help the young pitching develop since better defense implies fewer outs given away which implies fewer pitches thrown which is suppose to be a good thing.
    the reason Mark Buehrle was loved so much is that 2:15 is long enough to watch a MLB game

    Possible Sox will think about defense which may mean Sanchez as starting 3b and/or Leury or even Engel in CF even though their hitting is dubious.  Doubt Moncada will be moved off 2b anytime soon if ever.
    Again, don't see it as logical that a prime free agent like Cain signs with a team that won 67 games and is clearly rebuilding.  Spotrac has Cain projected at $ 68 million for 4 years based on their calculation system. 
    http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/kansas-city-royals/lorenzo-cain-7415/market-value
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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by rmapasad on Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:49 pm

    Spotrac has Cain projected at $ 68 million for 4 years based on their calculation system. >

    Best comp seems to be Dexter Fowler who signed for $ 82 million, 5 years this past winter.
    Fowler was coming off an 4.6 WAR season but only averaged 2.3 WAR his prior two years. Cain is coming off a 4.4 WAR year but averaged 4.6 WAR his prior two years. 
    Fowler was 31 years old on entering free agency while Cain is 32, which may mean Cain gets a year less.   But Cain's agent can argue that Cain's track record in the three years leading up to free agency was much better than Fowler's. 

    Looking over clubs who could be interested in Cain, the list isn't short.  Brewers and Mariners
    have clear needs in CF.   So do the A's and Blue Jays if they consider themselves contenders.  Other contending clubs like Cubs, D- Backs, Indians, Nationals, Orioles, and Rockies could use another solid OFer and shift their existing CFer to either LF or RF to accommodate Cain.   Meanwhile the Giants, Tigers and Padres are in same boat as the Sox - rebuilding non-contenders who need another solid OFer like Cain but don't likely think it is worth the $$ for them to commit to someone like him.

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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by Guest on Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:27 pm

    The way OUR White Sox are currently constructed, as well as how the top prospects project, the White Sox need a CF that can leadoff.


    So if the White Sox are priced out of the Cain market, then they need to find a younger version of him.


    PS Luis Robert has only 75 pro at bats so to project him as this is way too premature.


    PSS, keep forgetting Tito Polo.  Why isn't he in the top 30?!?!?!

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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by Guest on Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:29 pm

    Doubt Moncada will be moved off 2b anytime soon if ever.



    ***********************


    Probably true, meaning he better learn how to play 2B.  


    If I'm a GM looking for a 2B, I'm looking to steal Yolmer from the White Sox right now.

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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by Guest on Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:30 pm

    or Leury



    ******************


    2017 was a fluke


    Now let's see if the KARK can go 0 for 2 in the 2nd annual Garcia pissing contest


    Leury that is

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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by Guest on Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:32 pm

    Meanwhile the Giants, Tigers and Padres are in same boat as the Sox - rebuilding non-contenders who need another solid OFer like Cain but don't likely think it is worth the $$ for them to commit to someone like him




    ******************




    I THOUGHT THE GIANTS WERE THE PRESEASON FAVORITES FOR CAIN




    BTW, NO WAY IN HELL THE KARK GIVES CAIN A FOWLER CONTRACT

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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by Guest on Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:34 pm

    Again, don't see it as logical that a prime free agent like Cain signs with a team that won 67 games and is clearly rebuilding



    *******************


    UNLIKE YOU


    THE KARK CAN SEE FOR MILES AND MILES

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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by Guest on Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:45 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Meanwhile the Giants, Tigers and Padres are in same boat as the Sox - rebuilding non-contenders who need another solid OFer like Cain but don't likely think it is worth the $$ for them to commit to someone like him




    ******************




    I THOUGHT THE GIANTS WERE THE PRESEASON FAVORITES FOR CAIN




    BTW, NO WAY IN HELL THE KARK GIVES CAIN A FOWLER CONTRACT



    Just read on MLB Trade Rumors the SF Giants are now pursuing Jackie Bradley Jr


    Not exactly a leadoff hitter.  He will be 28 for the upcoming season and is considered an excellent defender.


    The article does not mention a cost.


    BTW, Tito Polo is only considered 23 for the 2018 season.  If Tito were more highly rated, I would gladly ignore the CF/leadoff spot for 2018.  Let's hope he continues to surprise 
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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by rmapasad on Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:26 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:or Leury
    ******************
    2017 was a fluke
    Now let's see if the KARK can go 0 for 2 in the 2nd annual Garcia pissing contest
    Leury that is

    His 150 ISO power looks flukish, but he hit .298 and .313 in AAA at ages 24-25.  So the possibility of
    .260-.265 BA with decent defense and some SB's isn't completely outlandish.  But I see .260/.310/.390 as his top end which isn't much of a regular CFer.  However, he could still make a respectable 4th OFer with some flexibility to play the IF.   So worth seeing what one more year brings from him.
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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by rmapasad on Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:29 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    UNLIKE YOU


    THE KARK CAN SEE FOR MILES AND MILES

    I don't give a shit if Reinsdorf blows $  70 million on a four year deal on this guy.   Just that if 2020 and 2021 rolls around and his $ 17-18 million per year salary starts crowding out other better FA investments that could be made, then it's a problem for team competitiveness.

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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by Guest on Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:22 am

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:or Leury
    ******************
    2017 was a fluke
    Now let's see if the KARK can go 0 for 2 in the 2nd annual Garcia pissing contest
    Leury that is

    His 150 ISO power looks flukish, but he hit .298 and .313 in AAA at ages 24-25.  So the possibility of
    .260-.265 BA with decent defense and some SB's isn't completely outlandish.  But I see .260/.310/.390 as his top end which isn't much of a regular CFer.  However, he could still make a respectable 4th OFer with some flexibility to play the IF.   So worth seeing what one more year brings from him.


    ARE THE WHITE SOX TRYING TO REBUILD A TEAM OR ARE THEY A TRY OUT CLUB FOR STIFFS?!?!?!?


    I'M SURE ALL THE YOUNG PITCHERS WILL APPRECIATE THE PISS POOR DEFENSE AT JUST ABOUT EVERY POSITION BECAUSE THEY ARE ALL WORTH ANOTHER LOOK


    HEY, MATT DAVIDSON IS DUE ANOTHER LOOK AT 3b BECAUSE HE JUST MIGHT HIT 40HR!!!!!

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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by Guest on Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:30 am

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    UNLIKE YOU


    THE KARK CAN SEE FOR MILES AND MILES

    I don't give a shit if Reinsdorf blows $  70 million on a four year deal on this guy.   Just that if 2020 and 2021 rolls around and his $ 17-18 million per year salary starts crowding out other better FA investments that could be made, then it's a problem for team competitiveness.




    Hysterical statements are not logical arguments.  And some website's projection is not a fact waiting to happen.


    And rebuilding a team requires knowing what you have and what you need.  Not throwing crap against the wall evey year to see what sticks.


    Bottom line, the way the team is constructed and projects points to a CF that can leadoff.  So either Tito Polo is the man, or that type of player needs to be found.  and yes, I'm OK with that player being a year away.


    As for Cain, if he can be had for 3, perfect.  It forces the White Sox to insert real defense into the lineup.  Not bullshit sabr defense from a stiff that had a hot month, got hurt and reverted back to suckiness
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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by rmapasad on Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:37 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:

    ARE THE WHITE SOX TRYING TO REBUILD A TEAM OR ARE THEY A TRY OUT CLUB FOR STIFFS?!?!?!?

    I'M SURE ALL THE YOUNG PITCHERS WILL APPRECIATE THE PISS POOR DEFENSE AT JUST ABOUT EVERY POSITION BECAUSE THEY ARE ALL WORTH ANOTHER LOOK
    HEY, MATT DAVIDSON IS DUE ANOTHER LOOK AT 3b BECAUSE HE JUST MIGHT HIT 40HR!!!!!

    Since when does Leury Garcia have "piss-poor defense" ?  Fan Graphs system may over-rate his glove defense, but BR's system still has him above average.  The guy has speed and an arm, and can track balls.  It's not like he's Tank (or Melky Cabrera) out there.

    As to Davidson, he can get his AB's at DH as long as he wears an iron skillet at 3b.  Your guy Anderson has some shaping up to do at SS too.  Nothing like a bunch of errors to make young pitchers work harder than necessary.  

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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by Guest on Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:51 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:

    ARE THE WHITE SOX TRYING TO REBUILD A TEAM OR ARE THEY A TRY OUT CLUB FOR STIFFS?!?!?!?

    I'M SURE ALL THE YOUNG PITCHERS WILL APPRECIATE THE PISS POOR DEFENSE AT JUST ABOUT EVERY POSITION BECAUSE THEY ARE ALL WORTH ANOTHER LOOK
    HEY, MATT DAVIDSON IS DUE ANOTHER LOOK AT 3b BECAUSE HE JUST MIGHT HIT 40HR!!!!!

    Since when does Leury Garcia have "piss-poor defense" ?  Fan Graphs system may over-rate his glove defense, but BR's system still has him above average.  The guy has speed and an arm, and can track balls.  It's not like he's Tank (or Melky Cabrera) out there.

    As to Davidson, he can get his AB's at DH as long as he wears an iron skillet at 3b.  Your guy Anderson has some shaping up to do at SS too.  Nothing like a bunch of errors to make young pitchers work harder than necessary.  




    1) the bulk of Leury's OF defense was complied in 2017.  Overall he has about 2/3 of a season in the OF.  So while you are most likely correct in stating he is well above Tank Melkey, he also has a sample size problem.  Defensive stats fluctuate just like hitting and pitching.  So Leury fielding stats could be a function of luck.  But if you want to proclaim him a hidden gem.  Go ahead.  The KARK has been wrong on these Garcia's b4.  we''l both know for sure in about another 8 - 9 months


    2)  Agree on Davidson, but here is how your sabr defensives stats screw you.  Yolmers defensive runs saved at 3B was just 8.  May be a league leading 8, but its still 8.  Maybe Hahn looks at 8 and figures its worth it to gamble 8 runs to see if Davidson can hit 40 at 3B and then put a better bat than Yolmer at DH.


    3)  Point noted on Anderson.  In fact, I believed I acknowlefged it over the summer when I stated Brice Turang might be some good Anderson insurance.  Will he last to #4?!?!?!


    4)  I'm sure you can see the possibility that the White Sox brass go with an infield of Davidson, Anderson, Moncada Abreau.  throw in an outfield of Delmonico, Garcia & Garcia.  that looks light a swiss cheese defense to me.  I'm sure you figured out that turning anderson's negative D into positive D is one of the keys of rebuilding.  He DOES have the tools to do it.  Hopefully he has the tool box
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    rmapasad
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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by rmapasad on Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:32 pm

    So Leury fielding stats could be a function of luck.  But if you want to proclaim him a hidden gem.  Go ahead.  The KARK has been wrong on these Garcia's b4.  we''l both know for sure in about another 8 - 9 months>>
    Another Garcia to defend this winter, shit. Yeah, the defensive samples in CF are small but they suggest decency.  Sure, they could go into free agency and pick up someone like Carlos Gomez or Jarod Dyson at 2-yrs., $ 20 million to get more respectable looking in CF until Polo and/or Robert are readier.  But what does that win for the Sox ? 
    This team is geared for 2020-2021 as 12 of the top 14  top prospects are 23 yrs old or younger in 2018.  You figure most guys come into their own at ages 24-27 so that sets the timetable.  I fully expect the team to be conservative in free agent spending until they are ready to start backing up the Brinks truck in 2020 and investing some real $$ to try to win.

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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by Guest on Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:13 am

    I wouldn't touch Gomez or Dyson with a 10 foot pole.


    Tito Polo appears to have the stats you'd want.  Wonder why he's not in the top 30.  He probably starts in AA, with a midseason AAA promotion if he continues to hit.  So there is a September callup possibility.


    Cain at 3 still makes all the sense in the world.  Shows the value of a leadoff hitter that can get on base.  Shows the value of defense.  don't discount the value of a veteran mentor.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: SABR Defensive Index

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:01 am

    Cain at 3 still makes all the sense in the world.  Shows the value of a leadoff hitter that can get on base.  Shows the value of defense.  don't discount the value of a veteran mentor.>>
    Cain's agent will be fishing for a 4 yr+ deal from clubs in need of a stronger CFer (Brewers, Mariners, Indians, Rangers, Mets, Blue Jays, possibly Cubs). Cain might make sense for other teams who need an upgrade in the OF and could shift guys around to make room for Cain.  Majority of which were contenders or reasonably close last year.  Odds of Sox getting Cain on a 3 year deal are lousy.

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