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    The LF Debate

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    rmapasad
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:16 am

    Soxillinirob wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:THE HAWK SAYS AVISAIL GARCIA IS SCARY STRONG


    THE POWER WILL COME


    TRUST IN THE HAWK

    Joe Borchard was scary strong.

    Wasn't Tank supposed to be too ?   So was Adam Dunn. 
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    rmapasad
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:16 am

    Soxillinirob wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:THE HAWK SAYS AVISAIL GARCIA IS SCARY STRONG


    THE POWER WILL COME


    TRUST IN THE HAWK

    Joe Borchard was scary strong.

    Wasn't Tank supposed to be too ?   So was Adam Dunn. 
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    Soxillinirob
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Soxillinirob on Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:50 am

    Point being that scary strong only gets you so far.  Lots of scary strong guys getting singles and lots of guys with mediocre power hitting 20+ HRS a year due to their swing path.  My high school aged kid is a perfect example.  Spent a couple of his travel seasons hitting moonshots and striking out too much and then we adjusted his swing to turn him into a singles/doubles kid that hits for super high average.  He's scary strong, too, but his current swing path won't be turning him into a HR hitter anytime soon. 

    Hopefully some coach can work with Avi and work under the concept that "Ok, we turned you from a steaming pile into a high avg hitter.  Now let's turn you from a punchin' judy hitter into a consistent power hitter."

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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Guest on Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:14 pm

    Garcia slugged over 500.  Hardly Punch and Judy.
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    Soxillinirob
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Soxillinirob on Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:38 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Garcia slugged over 500.  Hardly Punch and Judy.

    That's fair.  I think if you can get him hitting 25+ HRs, something he certainly has the power to do, you can more easily stomach it when his average inevitably falls back to a norm.

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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Guest on Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:05 pm

    Soxillinirob wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:Garcia slugged over 500.  Hardly Punch and Judy.

    That's fair.  I think if you can get him hitting 25+ HRs, something he certainly has the power to do, you can more easily stomach it when his average inevitably falls back to a norm.


    BUT WHAT IS NORM?!?!?!?!?!?!?!


    305? 295? 285?


    255?


    THE KARK BELIEVES HE WILL BE CLOSER TO 2017 THAN HE WILL BE TO 2016


    MY GUESS  302/358/493


    BTW, 851 WOULD BE #20 IN THE AL IN 2017 AMONG THOSE QUALIFYING FOR THE BATTING TITLE.  I WOULD NOT CONSIDER THAT TO BE A MEDIOCRE HITTING RF.


    PS, SINCE 330 WAS THE RESULT OF GETTING IN SHAPE, WORKING HARD, MAKING A CONSCIENCE EFFORT TO MAKE CONTACT, AND BEING PUT BACK IN THE FIELD INSTEAD OF PIGEON HOLED AS A DH, WHO'S TO SAY HE CAN'T REPEAT???


    I FIND IT HYSTERICAL THAT THE GUY WHO CLAIMED ALL LAST WINTER GARCIA COULD IMPROVE FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN DUMB LUCK IS NOW CLAIMING 55/85th OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS SOME KIND OF MYSTERY THAT IS NOW IMPOSSIBLE TO REPEAT.  AND WE ARE SUPPOSE TO BELIEVE HIS INVENTED NUMBERS AND CIRCULAR REASONING BECAUSE WHY?!?!?!?!?  SOME JUNK STAT LIKE BABIP


    LMAO

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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Guest on Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:27 pm

    BTW, PART OF THE MYSTERY WAS GARCIA'S INCREDIBLE PERFORMANCE ON THE FIRST PITCH


    IN 89 AB, GARCIA BATTED 506 WHEN HE HIT THE FIRST PITCH.


    SUBTRACT THESE 89 AT BATS, HE'S HITTING 293


    ASSUME HIS CAREER AVG OF 367 PRIOR TO THIS YEAR AND ITS 307


    *********************************************


    GEE I WONDER HOW MANY SCENARIOS WILL GET INVENTED THIS WINTER THAT WILL PROVE WITHOUT A SHADOW OF A DOUBT WHAT AVISAIL GARCIA MUST HIT IN 2018.


    ********************************************


    HEY MAYBE IT WAS THE INJURY!!!!!


    FOR HIS CAREER, GARCIA HITS 298 IN APRIL AND 299 IN MAY THEN GOES INTO THE TANK


    IN 2017, GARCIA MANAGED TO STAY HOT THRU JUNE, THEN GOT HURT WHICH NOT ONLY LIMITED HIS TIME IN THE TANK, BUT GOT HIM RESTED FOR SEPTEMBER AND HELPED HIM AVOID HIS TYPICAL YEAR END COLLAPSE.


    **********************


    WOW, WHAT A FUN GAME.  LOOK AT THE SPLITS AND INVENT A STORY


    THANKS ROGER
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    rmapasad
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:44 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:


    BUT WHAT IS NORM?!?!?!?!?!?!?!


    305? 295? 285?  255 ?  
    THE KARK BELIEVES HE WILL BE CLOSER TO 2017 THAN HE WILL BE TO 2016  MY GUESS  302/358/493
    TW, 851 WOULD BE #20 IN THE AL IN 2017 AMONG THOSE QUALIFYING FOR THE BATTING TITLE.  I WOULD NOT CONSIDER THAT TO BE A MEDIOCRE HITTING RF.


    Now you've finally hit on it.  He hasn't established any "norm" yet.   He went all the way from the basement to the 5th floor penthouse in one season.  And the hysterical part is that a year ago you insisted the basement was his norm and it was hopeless to think he could get out.  Now you think that the 4th floor is his new normal, as you suggest that he'll retain 159 of his 193 pt OPS  (or 83%) of his OPS improvement.  Where halfway point between '16 and '17 would put him at 789.

    It's hard to say what Garcia's new norm is since power is the wild card.  If he adds another 10-12 HR's, which is possible, he could be a 285/335/500 season. On the other hand, since you've projected neither a big jump in power or BB rate you 're  putting an incredibly high expectation that his non-HR balls in play will keep finding holes.  

    To me, Garcia's skill improvement looks to put him on the 2nd or 3rd floor (high 700's-low 800's) going forward unless his power improves.   But you seem to be comfortable with the extremes - first too pessimistic, now too optimistic.
     







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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Guest on Wed Oct 25, 2017 2:07 pm

    MORE BAD MATH FROM ROGER.


    NEVER SAID HALFWAY APPLIES TO OPS.  JUST BATTING AVERAGE


    AND JUST HOW THE HELL IS 850 CONSIDERED TOO OPTIMISTIC?!?!?


    ONCE AGAIN ROGER AND HIS EGO CLAIMS HIS BAD MATH IS THE ONLY LOGICAL ANSWER


    PS, ANYBODY ELSE READING BETWEEN THE LINES AND SEE HE'S STILL PERPETUATING THIS LUCKY GROUNDBALL NONSENSE?!?!?!


    BTW, THE 2016 LEADER IN BABIP WENT FROM 348/388 TO 310/351 IN 2017.  AN ALMOST IDENTICAL SPREAD.  SO ONCE AGAIN, BABIP APPEARS TO BE BULLSHIT
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    rmapasad
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Oct 25, 2017 3:02 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:MORE BAD MATH FROM ROGER.
    NEVER SAID HALFWAY APPLIES TO OPS.  JUST BATTING AVERAGE
    AND JUST HOW THE HELL IS 850 CONSIDERED TOO OPTIMISTIC?!?!?
    ONCE AGAIN ROGER AND HIS EGO CLAIMS HIS BAD MATH IS THE ONLY LOGICAL ANSWER
    PS, ANYBODY ELSE READING BETWEEN THE LINES AND SEE HE'S STILL PERPETUATING THIS LUCKY GROUNDBALL NONSENSE?!?!?!
    BTW, THE 2016 LEADER IN BABIP WENT FROM 348/388 TO 310/351 IN 2017.  AN ALMOST IDENTICAL SPREAD.  SO ONCE AGAIN, BABIP APPEARS TO BE BULLSHIT

    The 2016 leader DJ LeMahieu is not like Garcia. He was good in 2015-2016.  The only similarity they have is that they maintain consistent spreads between their BABIP-BA these last two years.   In LeMahieu's case it's 40 pts instead of Garcia's 60 pts.  because DJ has a lower K rate.   But nice try (eh, not really).

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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Guest on Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:00 pm

    YOU MUST BE INCREDIBLY SHORT, BECAUSE THINGS JUST CONSTANTLY FLY OVER YOUR HEAD.


    THE POINT IS BABIP FOLLOWS BATTING AVERAGE.  NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND LIKE YOU INSIST.


    THERE IS ABSOLUTELY ZERO IN BABIP THAT MANDATES AVISAIL GARCIA MUST HIT LESS IN 2018 THAN HE DID IN 2017.


    YOU ARE CLEARLY OVERWEIGHTING 2015 & 2016 AS WELL AS SHOWING YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND THE MEANING OF WHAT IT MEANS TO IMPROVE


    PS, THE ROMOTE POSSIBILITY OF GARCIA SUCKING IS JUST ANOTHER REASON TO SIGN LORENZO CAIN.  A TOP 10 WAR PERFORMER AND LIGHT YEARS AHEAD OF THE TWO CLOWNS YOU WANT IN CF.  A GUY THAT MISSED A YEAR AND A HALF AND ANOTHER WITH A LIFETIME OPS OF 599


    AND YOU CLAIM I'M OVERLY OPTIMISTIC


    LMAO.


    TILSON/L GARCIA COMBINING FOR TOP 10 WAR PERFORMANCE, NOW THAT'S OUTRIGHT DELUSIONAL
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    rmapasad
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Oct 26, 2017 10:48 am

    THE POINT IS BABIP FOLLOWS BATTING AVERAGE.  NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND LIKE YOU INSIST.>
    A total impossibility for you to grasp anything that is not in the alternate universe you've created in your warped mind.

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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Guest on Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:04 pm

    Then explain why the spread for Avisail Garcia is roughly 60 regardless of the year or split!!!!


    and try to give a real explanation.  Not your typical childish lie about how Tom Tango & Co are some Manhattan Project for Sabermetrics and us mere mortals don't have a right to question their wisdom
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    rmapasad
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:14 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Then explain why the spread for Avisail Garcia is roughly 60 regardless of the year or split!!!!


    and try to give a real explanation.  Not your typical childish lie about how Tom Tango & Co are some Manhattan Project for Sabermetrics and us mere mortals don't have a right to question their wisdom

    Save your assholish 6th grade level insults for those who really might care about your opinions.
    Simple math determines whether BA is above or below league average.  1 - BIP opportunities due to k's,  2- HR's as % of all ab'S  and 3 - singles, doubles, triples)/balls in playing field (ie., BABIP).  
    The idea that BA drives BABIP is absurd because 2 of the 3 components of a hitter's ability to have a good BA (low K's and/or higher HR's) don't correlate much at all to whether he has a good or bad BABIP.  Speed is a better correlator to BABIP than K rate or HR rate.

    BABIP- BA spread is a function of K rates, HR/AB rates, as well as getting hits out of BIP.  

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