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    The LF Debate

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    Deplorable Mark
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    The LF Debate

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:05 pm

    1)  Who are the in house candidates to start in LF in 2018?


    Nick Delmonico had the job in September.  Wily Garcia had it before he broke his jaw.  Ryan Cordell is in there top 30 and has nothing left to prove in the minors.  


    2)  Are any of these guys long term solutions


    Probably not.  You may get decent production if you platoon, but I don't see any potential superstars here


    3)  Are they any top prospects in the minors that could be ready in a year or two?


    Eloy Jiminez tore thru AA after being acquired.  I suspect he starts the year at AAA.  If he bats 350 like he did the 2nd half of last year, he's probably up around All-Star break.  Absent a total flop at AAA, I would suspect Jiminez to be a September callup and hopefully a fixture in the White Sox lineup for at least a decade


    4)  Does it make sense to explore external options for the short term


    I would say no.  Jiminez is one of the very top prospects in baseball and will be ready soon.  What the White Sox have in the interim is probably as good as any one year rental.  Plus Wily Garcia might surprise considering how gifted he is tools wise
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    rmapasad
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:06 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:1)  Who are the in house candidates to start in LF in 2018?

    Nick Delmonico had the job in September.  Wily Garcia had it before he broke his jaw.  Ryan Cordell is in there top 30 and has nothing left to prove in the minors
    . >
    None of these guys play defense all that well except Cordell, and as to "nothing left to prove in minors", I'm not sure that his 850 OPS in the thin air of Colorado Springs at age 25 proves a great deal.  Not saying Cordell is a bust and won't be useful. In fact he could be the guy who takes the job in the interim and shows whether he's a decent long-term solution. His ceiling isn't that of Jiminez's but if Eloy is a butcher with the glove in OF he may not be the best choice for LF or RF.


     Plus Wily Garcia might surprise considering how gifted he is tools wise
    Will say this about Willy. His BB totals took a big jump this year.  But his K rate is still too high to give him a decent Bat Avg. and his power hasn't been what it should be for corner OF.  While his arm is great, his flyball coverage leaves a lot to be desired.  He'll be 26 next year and it's worth seeing if he develops further. Right now I see him as one of a dozen "maybes" the Sox have but nothing in Willy's track record suggests that he's in the upper echelon of those "maybes".
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:41 pm

    but if Eloy is a butcher with the glove in OF he may not be the best choice for LF or RF.


    *******************************


    THAT'S WHY THE OUTFIELD OF THE FUTURE IS LOU-BOB, MICKER AND THE BLAKE!!!


    ELOY WILL DH SINCE HE IS PROBABLY THW WORST DEFENSIVELY.


    THAT SAID, HE PROBABLY YOUR LF COME AUGUST 1ST, SO THAT'S ANOTHER REASON TO LOOK SERIOUSLY AT BILLY HAMILTON.  HAMILTON IS ONE OF THE FEW FAST ENOUGH TO COVER THE GROUND BETWEEN JIMINEZ AND GARCIA
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Oct 17, 2017 3:21 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:but if Eloy is a butcher with the glove in OF he may not be the best choice for LF or RF.


    *******************************


    THAT'S WHY THE OUTFIELD OF THE FUTURE IS LOU-BOB, MICKER AND THE BLAKE!!!


    ELOY WILL DH SINCE HE IS PROBABLY THW WORST DEFENSIVELY.


    THAT SAID, HE PROBABLY YOUR LF COME AUGUST 1ST, SO THAT'S ANOTHER REASON TO LOOK SERIOUSLY AT BILLY HAMILTON.  HAMILTON IS ONE OF THE FEW FAST ENOUGH TO COVER THE GROUND BETWEEN JIMINEZ AND GARCIA

    At age 20, Robert puts up a 1.027 OPS in rookie ball. At the same age and in his second season in rookie ball, Hamilton puts up a 839.   4 years later he becomes the Reds' regular CFer.   I figure that because Robert has better BB rate, much better power, roughly same K rate, roughly same speed and defense he has a chance to cut a year off his arrival time v. what Hamilton did.  Which puts him in CF in 2020 at some point, barring injury.
    As to Hamilton - . Even though his CF defense is still very good, in prior years it was sensational. So it's started to decline already and at age 27 he puts up a 634 OPS.  No wonder the Reds might consider him expendable.  Especially since he's arb-eligible and looking at $ 4 -5 mil salary coming up. Not a bargain for what he does and they are still rebuilding.   
    Hamilton is better than what the Sox have in Leury and Tilson undoubtedly, but not a whole lot better.  If he was in the fold already it might be worth paying him $ 4.5 mil as he's had a couple 3 win seasons already and at age 30 in 2020, he could keep the seat warm until Robert shoves him aside. Which he could by 2020.   But it's going to cost more than  just Hamilton's $ 4.5 mil salary to make him a Sox in 2018-2019. I doubt that it's worth it.
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:30 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:but if Eloy is a butcher with the glove in OF he may not be the best choice for LF or RF.


    *******************************


    THAT'S WHY THE OUTFIELD OF THE FUTURE IS LOU-BOB, MICKER AND THE BLAKE!!!


    ELOY WILL DH SINCE HE IS PROBABLY THW WORST DEFENSIVELY.


    THAT SAID, HE PROBABLY YOUR LF COME AUGUST 1ST, SO THAT'S ANOTHER REASON TO LOOK SERIOUSLY AT BILLY HAMILTON.  HAMILTON IS ONE OF THE FEW FAST ENOUGH TO COVER THE GROUND BETWEEN JIMINEZ AND GARCIA

    At age 20, Robert puts up a 1.027 OPS in rookie ball. At the same age and in his second season in rookie ball, Hamilton puts up a 839.   4 years later he becomes the Reds' regular CFer.   I figure that because Robert has better BB rate, much better power, roughly same K rate, roughly same speed and defense he has a chance to cut a year off his arrival time v. what Hamilton did.  Which puts him in CF in 2020 at some point, barring injury.

    A LOT CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THE MAGICAL YEAR OF 2020, WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BE ALL THAT MAGICAL.  LETS CONCENTRATE ON 2018 INSTEAD OF TAKING WILD GUESSES AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN 3 YEARS FROM NOW.


    As to Hamilton - . Even though his CF defense is still very good, in prior years it was sensational. So it's started to decline already and at age 27 he puts up a 634 OPS.

    NOT EVERY OFF YEAR IS A PERMANEANT DECLINE AND NOT EVERY PLAYER HAS A CAREER YEAR AT 27.  SOME PLAYERS HAVE EXACTLY SUCKED AT 27 ONLY TO COME ROARING BACK AT 28.  SHIT HAPPENS.

      No wonder the Reds might consider him expendable.  Especially since he's arb-eligible and looking at $ 4 -5 mil salary coming up. Not a bargain for what he does and they are still rebuilding.   
    Hamilton is better than what the Sox have in Leury and Tilson undoubtedly,

    BINGO!!!!

    but not a whole lot better.  If he was in the fold already it might be worth paying him $ 4.5 mil as he's had a couple 3 win seasons already and at age 30 in 2020, he could keep the seat warm until Robert shoves him aside. Which he could by 2020.   But it's going to cost more than  just Hamilton's $ 4.5 mil salary to make him a Sox in 2018-2019. I doubt that it's worth it.



    BASEBALL IS PAID WITH MONOPOLY MONEY.  $5MIL AIN'T NOTHING.  AND IF IT GIVES YOU GOLD GLOVE CALIBER DEFENSE IN CF ITS WORTH IT.  IMAGINE HAMILTON AND SANCHEZ WINNING GLOVE GLOVES IN 2018.  THINK THAT MIGHT BE A HELP TO THE YOUNG PITCHERS?


    NOW IF THE REDS EXPECT A KOPECH OR IF HAMILTON IS AN ASSHOLE, THEN LETS MOVE ON TO PLAN C.  BUT IF ALL THESE GM'S ARE SO SABERMETRICALLY AWARE LIKE YOU CLAIM, THEN I DOUBT THE PROSPECT PRICE WOULD BE THAT HIGH.  ESPECIALLY IF THE WHITE SOX WOULD BE WILLING TO EAT ALL OF HAMILTONS SALARY.


    AS FOR PLAN C, RUMOR HAS IT CHRISTIAN YELICH COULD BE MOVED IN A MARLINS SALARY DUMP.
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:03 pm


    AS FOR PLAN C, RUMOR HAS IT CHRISTIAN YELICH COULD BE MOVED IN A MARLINS SALARY DUMP.

    Sox should always be open to an opportunity to snag a guy even if it's a year or two premature relative to the "plan".  Provided he'll still be a strong contributor 4-5 years from now when the top prospects are ready to hit stride and provided it doesn't involve the Sox mortgaging their own future to get such a player.

    Yelich is 26 year old who's put up 4.5 WAR each of last two years and has an Adam Eaton-like team friendly contract. So he's that kind of player.  But Sox will surely have to mortgage their future to get him.  Think of what the Nats had to give up for Eaton (three good pitching prospects) and that's the starting point.  It's robbing Peter to pay Paul - Sox have to make their future weaker in other areas to be strong in CF.  When  they may already be strong in CF by 2020-2021 with Luis Robert. .
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:32 am

    TRADE JIMINEZ AND CEASE!!!!!!!


    THAT'S AN OBVIOUS WIN-WIN FOR THE WHITE SOX


    THEY ADD A YOUNG PROVEN STAR


    THEY SUBTRACT CUBBIES WHICH IS ALWAYS ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:38 am

    When  they may already be strong in CF by 2020-2021 with Luis Robert.


    ***********************


    WOW!!!!


    YOU ARE ONE RIGID UNIMAGINATIVE SOB


    MOVE ONE CF TO LF OR RF!!!!!!


    PROBABLY IMPROVES YOUR DEFENSE.


    AND GIVEN YOUR TRASHING OF GUYS LIKE BLAKE RUTHERFORD, THEY MIGHT IMPROVE THE OFFENSE AS WELL


    YOU REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT THE ACTUAL TEAM IN ITS ENTIRETY, NOT THRU THE PRISM OF YOU BLACK & WHITE OVERSIMPLISTIC DEFINITIONS
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:09 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:When  they may already be strong in CF by 2020-2021 with Luis Robert.
    ***********************
    WOW!!!!  
    YOU ARE ONE RIGID UNIMAGINATIVE SOB
    MOVE ONE CF TO LF OR RF!!!!!!
    PROBABLY IMPROVES YOUR DEFENSE.
    AND GIVEN YOUR TRASHING OF GUYS LIKE BLAKE RUTHERFORD, THEY MIGHT IMPROVE THE OFFENSE AS WELL
    YOU REALLY NEED TO LOOK AT THE ACTUAL TEAM IN ITS ENTIRETY, NOT THRU THE PRISM OF YOU BLACK & WHITE OVERSIMPLISTIC DEFINITIONS

    Yes, people can shift around in the OF.   And yes, it is worth talking to Marlins if they are serious about dealing Yelich.  Just not sure why they would be though. If they want to dump salary, Gioncarlo Stanton is the guy to unload whereas Yelich's deal is a helluva bargain.  Which is why their asking price for Yelich would be over the roof, IMO. 
    Thought about Jiminez as the main Sox offer but he may not be an ideal fit for NL teams if he has defense issues. So the Marlins may want Moncada plus Lopez plus another good minor league prospect.  Anything is worth considering since 26 year old Yelich is a proven guy but then the Sox have to weigh how much that costs in the long run. Yelich has been a 4-5 WAR guy.  If Moncada is a 4 WAR and Lopez is a 2-3 WAR guy by 2020, the Sox haven't gained. 
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:10 pm

    NO WAY IN HELL THE KARK TRADES MONCADA


    AND YOU DO HAVE A POINT.  THE WHITE SOX RISK GIVING UP MORE THAN THEY GET BACK


    SO JACOB MAY IN LF, ADAM ENGEL IN CF AND ENJOY THE DEFENSE
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:30 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:NO WAY IN HELL THE KARK TRADES MONCADA
    AND YOU DO HAVE A POINT.  THE WHITE SOX RISK GIVING UP MORE THAN THEY GET BACK
    SO JACOB MAY IN LF, ADAM ENGEL IN CF AND ENJOY THE DEFENSE

    Neither May nor Engel have been able to hit their way out of a paper bag, so their careers are as defensive replacement/pinch runner 5th OFers which probably means no career since clubs don't carry 5 OFers much anymore. 
    Was just reading MLB Trade Rumors articles on Sox for next year and the comments of about 20 different posters and their rundown looks like:
    C- Narvaez and Smith with possible vet acquisition but nobody expensive like Lucroy
    1b- Abreu but with some thought that he could be trade bait since he's a FA in 2020
    2b- Moncada
    SS- Anderson
    3b- Sanchez 
    LF - Delmonico and Willy Garcia 
    CF- Leury Garcia and Tilson. No one mentioned any upgrade there.
    RF -Avi Garcia.  Not many wanted an extension, and a few wondered if he
          should be traded while his value is high.   Contrary to your belief that I'm
          only person on the planet who's concerned about his BABIP returning to
          earth, that was the  theme of both writers and several posters.  For that
          same reason they also questioned if his trade value would be that high since
          other clubs might view him as a one year wonder.
    DH- Davidson and Delmonico

    P - Gioloto, Lopez, Shields, Rodon (June) and a couple vet fill-ins (cheap though)
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:38 pm

    is the comments sections suppose to prove something?!?!?!!

    Other than your not alone in missing the obvious and believing in bad math?
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:19 am

    CF- Leury Garcia and Tilson. No one mentioned any upgrade there.


    ******************************


    Bleacher Report ran an article listing every team's free agent wish list


    CF was listed under White Sox


    Apparently its not just the KARK that thinks the White Sox can do better than a guy who hasn't played in a year and a half or a utility infielder with a career OPS of 599


    PS, Adam Engel is clearly better than Leury Garcia based on his tools, so don't count Engel out of the CF picture.  When it comes to tools, Engel is as fast as anybody in the org, has a very good arm and is clearly the best defensive OF the White Sox have.
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:40 am

    HERE THE ARTICLE ROGER REFERENCED


    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/offseason-outlook-chicago-white-sox-8.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29



    I NOTICE ONE COMMENTOR STATED THE WHITE SOX SHOULD START ADDING VETERAN TALENT THE COMPLIMENT THE YOUNG TALENT.  HOW KARKISH


    I GUESS ROGER MISSED THIS ONE.  ROGER WAS PROBABLY TOO BUSY IMAGINING A BABIP CONVERSATION.


    THE KARK DID NOT SEE ANY COMMENTOR MENTION BABIP.  THE MAIN ARTICLE HAD ONE LINE ABOUT HOW NOBODY EXPECTS ANOTHER .392 BABIP


    WELL DUH.


    YOU DON'T NEED THIS PIECE OF BAD MATH TO FIGURE OUT THAT A 330BA IS PROBABLY A CAREER HIGH AND THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE GARCIA IS A 280 HITTER NEXT YEAR.


    PS, EVEN FANGRAPHS WARNS AGAINST USING BABIP AS SOME KIND OF LUCK INDICATOR STATING THAT SUCH CONCLUSION ARE OVERLY SIMPLISTIC AND POTENTIALLY UNTRUE IF OTHER INDICATORS ARE IGNORED


    LET'S NEVER FORGET THAT ROGER CLAIM GARCIA'S BABIP IN THE FIRST HALF MANDATED A 780 OPS IN THE SECOND HALF.  WELL GARCIA OPS 950 IN THE SECOND HALF WHEN HE SACRIFICED POWER TO HIT EVEN MORE LUCKY GROUNDBALLS
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:25 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:HERE THE ARTICLE ROGER REFERENCED


    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/offseason-outlook-chicago-white-sox-8.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29



    I NOTICE ONE COMMENTOR STATED THE WHITE SOX SHOULD START ADDING VETERAN TALENT THE COMPLIMENT THE YOUNG TALENT.  HOW KARKISH


    I GUESS ROGER MISSED THIS ONE.  ROGER WAS PROBABLY TOO BUSY IMAGINING A BABIP CONVERSATION.


    THE KARK DID NOT SEE ANY COMMENTOR MENTION BABIP.  THE MAIN ARTICLE HAD ONE LINE ABOUT HOW NOBODY EXPECTS ANOTHER .392 BABIP


    WELL DUH.


    YOU DON'T NEED THIS PIECE OF BAD MATH TO FIGURE OUT THAT A 330BA IS PROBABLY A CAREER HIGH AND THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE GARCIA IS A 280 HITTER NEXT YEAR.


    PS, EVEN FANGRAPHS WARNS AGAINST USING BABIP AS SOME KIND OF LUCK INDICATOR STATING THAT SUCH CONCLUSION ARE OVERLY SIMPLISTIC AND POTENTIALLY UNTRUE IF OTHER INDICATORS ARE IGNORED


    LET'S NEVER FORGET THAT ROGER CLAIM GARCIA'S BABIP IN THE FIRST HALF MANDATED A 780 OPS IN THE SECOND HALF.  WELL GARCIA OPS 950 IN THE SECOND HALF WHEN HE SACRIFICED POWER TO HIT EVEN MORE LUCKY GROUNDBALLS

    1 - Didn't miss that article with the author in favor of vet contracts.  But he wasn't talking about
    expensive FA's (like Cain or Lucroy) to "fix" 2018-2019 weaknesses.  He wanted to partially take on bad contracts like Kemp's or Ellsbury's in return for getting a good prospect.  Sox have payroll room for this but is it realistic to think cheapo Reinsdorf will do this ?  Plus, also depends how long the Sox have to go.  Ellsbury has $ 68 million left over 3 years.  Sox take on 1/2 that, they still have $11 million per year through 2020 (when he's 36 yrs old). That $ 11 million could be better used in 2020 for a 30-31 year old FA who'll likely be decent a couple more yrs. v. 36 year old has-been who's likely deadwood.

    2 - Look at the spread between Garcia's BABIP and BA in his three years as a regular with Sox. 
    In 2015 ...320 BABIP/ 257 BA = 63 pt spread   
    In 2016 ...309 BABIP/245 BA = 64 pt spread.
    In 2017...392 BABIP /333 BA = 59 pt spread.   That 59 - 64 pt. spread is a pretty consistent trend. 
     
    The math is what it is. You may dispute the ASSUMPTIONS behind the math in which case, please call it what is "BAD ASSUMPTIONS" rather than the "bad math".  But here it is on Avi.

    Assuming he maintains his 60 pt BABIP-BA spread, a .340 BABIP = .280 BA.   As you can see he's only been .340 BABIP+ one of his last 3 seasons and Leag Avg. BABIP for ALL regulars = .306.  So saying he'll be .340 + is no slam dunk, but let's assume he can.


    If Avi maintains the same OBP-BA (50 pts) and Slug-BA (180 pts) of 2017 then here's what .280 BA means.    .280/.330/.460 = .790 OPS.   Not bad but not worth breaking the Bank for either in a RFer, especially one whose defense is subpar.  Which is why I say give Avi the $ 6-7 mil he'd be entitled to in arb, and see what he does this year rather than giving him a big extension and COUNTING on either: 
    1 -him maintaining .370+ BABIP and being a .310+ hitter and thus a mid 800's OPS  and/or 
    2 -have his ISO power jump from 180 to 260 in which case he can hit .260/.320/.520 = .840 OPS
    3 -his BABIP-BA spread goes down from 60 to 30 due to decreased K's and more HR's in which case 
    he could be 330BABIP/300 BA - 350 OBP - 480 Slug = 830 OPS 

    I'm not saying either 1 or 2 or 3 are impossible, just a lot to count on when he's only had a .350+ BABIP once in his career, has never exceeded a 180 ISO before, and has never been lower than a 60 BABP-BA spread even in his career year.  
    I would appreciate your answering these calmly and to the exact assumptions here.  If there is something wrong with the assumptions, then explain why they are wrong.  Thank you.
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:54 pm

    You may dispute the ASSUMPTIONS


    ***************************



    AND I DO




    #1, YOU SEEM TO ASSUME THAT BABIP DRIVES BA.  I SAY THE OPPOSITE.  AVISAIL GARCIA WORKED HIS ASS OFF TO GET INTO BETTER SHAPE.  HE ALSO WORKED HIS ASS OFF IN THE BATTING CAGES TO IMPROVE HIS SWING.  HE MADE A CONSCIENCE EFFORT TO GO UP THE MIDDLE MORE....




    PLAYERS BA BOUNCE AROUND ALL OVER THE PLACE.  260 ONE YEAR, 300 THE NEXT 280 THE 3RD.  TO SAY THIS IS ALL CONFINED WITHIN BABIP MAKES ZERO SENSE TO ME.  PLUS IT REEKS OF DOUBLE TALK ON YOUR END.




    ALL WINTER LONG YOU SUGGESTED THAT GARCIA COULD DEVELOP.  2017 HE DID.  SO IF HE DEVELOPS, ITS ONLY LOGICAL FOR YOUR STATS TO IMPROVE.  NOW YOU ARE CLAIMING HIS IMPROVEMENT IS LUCK BECAUSE HE NEVER HAD STATS THIS GOOD B4.  SO IT SOUNDS TO ME THAT YOU THINK HE REVERTS BACK TO HIS PRE 2017 FORM FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN THAT PERIOD IS LONGER THAN 2017.




    BUT THIS COMPLETELY IGNORES THE TREND THAT PLAYERS IMPROVE WITH AGE.  ALSO IGNORES THAT PLAYERS CAN IMPROVE WITH HARD WORK.  YOU ALSO SEEM TO ASSUME THAT YOU ASSUMPTIONS ARE HARD FACTS WHICH THEY AREN'T.  SO ALL YOUR MATH IS JUST ONE GIANT CIRCULAR ARGUMENT THAT EASILY FALLS APART IF ANY OF YOUR ASSUMPTIONS TURN OUT INCORRECT.




    FOR EXAMPLE, GARCIA IMPROVED HIS 2ND OPS WHEN HE SACRIFICED POWER FOR MORE GROUNDBALL HITS.  HIS 2ND HALF BABIP WAS LIKE 420.  IN OTHER WORDS, IT WENT IN THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE DIRECTION YOU SAID IT WOULD.




    SO THAT IS WHY I GIVE YOU CRAP.  YOU ACT LIKE ALL YOUR CONJECTURE IS THE ONLY LOGICAL POSSIBLE WHEN IT CLEARLY ISN'T.
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:49 pm

    <1, YOU SEEM TO ASSUME THAT BABIP DRIVES BA.  I SAY THE OPPOSITE.  AVISAIL GARCIA WORKED HIS ASS OFF TO GET INTO BETTER SHAPE.  HE ALSO WORKED HIS ASS OFF IN THE BATTING CAGES TO IMPROVE HIS SWING.  HE MADE A CONSCIENCE EFFORT TO GO UP THE MIDDLE MORE....>
    But that doesn't deny how much BABIP drives BA. In fact Garcia had the same basic 60 pt spread between those two stats like in prior two years.  But guys can through hard work increase their BABIP as Avi.    But  how much of that improvement was from extra work?  Some was, but how much ?

    He hit the ball harder to some degree, but did hit fewer softer balls though.  He didn't go up the middle or opposite field more.  In fact, he actually pulled the ball more in '17. One big difference is that in '17 he got 16 more infield hits v. '16 rate.
    Those 16 extra IF hits pumped 30 pts more to BA and 60 pts more to OPS.  Did he get that much faster to 1st ?  Doubtful.  Was it because of more hard hit GB's ? Possible, but harder GB's may decrease IF hits since the IFer has more time to knock the ball down and still make a play. Aside from raw speed to beat the IFer's throw, IF hits come on soft/medium balls where the fielder is off balance when snagging it.  That smacks of good fortune. Good news is that even if all 16 added IF hits went away, he'd still be a solid .299/.351/.475.
    So bottom line is that I don't have a problem with assuming Avi will be a solid 790-840 OPS guy. 
    I do have a problem assuming he will be a 875+ stud like 2017.




    I agree it's bad to base everything on faulty assumptions.  But for financial decisions, Sox have to make SOME assumptions.  I think it's fair to assume Avi won't walk much. That's who he is.  I think it's fair to assume his BABIP will be 330-350 (still pretty generous) and thus a .270-.290 BA.  Big wild card is power.  His ISO jumped 25 pts this year and maybe it will again in 2018.  That offsets any losses due to fewer groundball singles.  But you can't just assume another jump in power due to going from age 26 to 27.  Some guy's power peaks at 25-26.

    I say take a relatively conservative but not overly pessismistic view. He won't fall back to a .250-ish hitter.   .270 to .300 is reasonable, and maybe another 15-25 jump in ISO.   So that leaves him ranging from .270/.320/.460  to .300/.350/.500.  The low end of that is decent RFer, the high end is semi-stud.  He should be paid accordingly, IMO, based on his service time.


    FOR EXAMPLE, GARCIA IMPROVED HIS 2ND OPS WHEN HE SACRIFICED POWER FOR MORE GROUNDBALL HITS.  HIS 2ND HALF BABIP WAS LIKE 420.  IN OTHER WORDS, IT WENT IN THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE DIRECTION YOU SAID IT WOULD.  SO THAT IS WHY I GIVE YOU CRAP.  YOU ACT LIKE ALL YOUR CONJECTURE IS THE ONLY LOGICAL POSSIBLE WHEN IT CLEARLY ISN'T.
    I don't know how a guy consciously sacrifices power for GB hits, as GB hits seem very hard to plan on.  You don't control how quickly IFers get to the ball or even the precise location of the grounder all that well.  What I do know is Avi was in the "zone" all year. He felt it. He had the confidence to put a good swing on everytime and it really worked out well. Will he re-capture that in 2018, 2019, 2020 ?  Hard to say, but you have to look at past history of other guys who were in the "zone" for one season and then see what happened.  Based on that, some falloff on BABIP and BA is almost inevitable and should be factored in.  As noted, maybe even fair to factor in some modest improvement in power.  But extending him as though his 2017 levels+ are his "new normal" ignores some red flags and could be a mistake. 
    I will also say you had a constructive tone in your latest response and that's a good thing. 
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:35 am

    But that doesn't deny how much BABIP drives BA. In fact Garcia had the same basic 60 pt spread between those two stats like in prior two years.  But guys can through hard work increase their BABIP as Avi.    But  how much of that improvement was from extra work?  Some was, but how much ?


    ****************************



    BABIP is batting average minus strike outs and homeruns.  Batting averages change all the time.  K rates and HR rates, while usually consistant are not hard constants.  So how the hell does BABIP drive BA?!?!?!?!?!

    Seems to me that this 60 point spread is just a function of the math.  Its not this upper bond you claim it is.  Garcia in the first half  310/371.  Second half 358/420.  Last year, 232/309 1st half, 264/321 2nd half, 245/309 overall.  2015, his first full year, 272/344 2nd, 240/294 2nd, 257/320 overall

    for his career 277/340.  By month April 298/365; May 299/356; June 238/308; 226/299; August 319/370; Sept 269/318.  Thats a spread of 67; 57, 70, 73, 51, 49

    So tell me again how BABIP is driving his average.  Seems very obvious that its the other way around and this 60 point spread you are so concerned about is nothing but a function of the math.  In other words, it is completely erronous to claim that BABIP will prevent Garcia from hitting 310 next year


    PS, you don't need these BABIP nonsense to figure out 330 is most likely over Garcia's head.  Everybody here realizes that.  We don't need you mind numbing mathematical examples to show us what we all see instinctively


    ********************


    BTW, all of last winter you argued that its quite possible that Garcia could turn into a star.  Now you are claiming Garcia can't be that much of a star because he never was a star prior to this year.  A blatant contradiction.  
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    rmapasad
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:54 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:But that doesn't deny how much BABIP drives BA. In fact Garcia had the same basic 60 pt spread between those two stats like in prior two years.  But guys can through hard work increase their BABIP as Avi.    But  how much of that improvement was from extra work?  Some was, but how much ?


    ****************************
    BABIP is batting average minus strike outs and homeruns.  Batting averages change all the time.  K rates and HR rates, while usually consistant are not hard constants.  So how the hell does BABIP drive BA?!?!?!?!?!

    Didn't say BABIP was the only driver of BA but it's a very big driver.  The difference between the top 15% in BA and bottom 15% in BA was 89 pts [size=13](.313 v. .224).  The BABIP difference of same top v. bottom 15% in BA were 80 pts (.346 v.266).

    [/size]Obviously lower K's are also a big factor in BA, but so are line drive %, IF hits, and IF popup rates and the latter three all relate to BABIP. 


     Seems to me that this 60 point spread is just a function of the math.  Its not this upper bond you claim it is.  Garcia in the first half  310/371.  Second half 358/420.  Last year, 232/309 1st half, 264/321 2nd half, 245/309 overall.  2015, his first full year, 272/344 2nd, 240/294 2nd, 257/320 overallfor his career 277/340.  By month April 298/365; May 299/356; June 238/308; 226/299; August 319/370; Sept 269/318.  Thats a spread of 67; 57, 70, 73, 51, 49
    In other words, it is completely erronous to claim that BABIP will prevent Garcia from hitting 310 next yearPS, you don't need these BABIP nonsense to figure out 330 is most likely over Garcia's head.  Everybody here realizes that.  We don't need you mind numbing mathematical examples to show us what we all see instinctively

    So apparently even though .330 is clearly unrealistic, you believe he could hit .310.
    What I found is how Avi was able to hit over .275 this year defies all logical skill explanations.  He got 8 extra balls in play due to fewer K's and fewer IF pops than leag avg... Let's give him 3 extra hits for that.   But he got 2 fewer extra base hits than league average.   He got 1 extra base hit due to his line drive rate.    He did however get 13 extra infield hits v. league avg rate of IF hits/GB, and it's hard to see why because usually the real speed burners like Altuve, Gordon, Anderson, etc. get those.  Plus he got an extra 20 hits beyond IF hits that are just mysterious.  
    His pull % was higher than league average where vast majority (70%) of the top BA guys pulled the ball at a lower rate than league average.

    His skills improvement logically explains about 30 pts of BA elevation over last year. So yes, as I've said all along he isn't the same stiff as 2014-2016.  But those skills only explain a 6 pt elevation over league avg. LEaving the other 55 pts. over league average a mystery.  You can't explain why, I can't explain it other than to say his balls just went to the right places.  

    BTW, all of last winter you argued that its quite possible that Garcia could turn into a star.  Now you are claiming Garcia can't be that much of a star because he never was a star prior to this year.  A blatant contradiction.  

    Prior to this year, I gave Avi a 15-18 % chance of being a decent player using historical %'s of guys with sub 700's OPS before age 26 who got out of the basement.  But something like 5-6 % chance of becoming a star.   That's hardly like saying it was "quite possible".  More like "almost impossible."
    Bottom line is that I will go on record as saying that Avi Garcia is out of the basement, but unless he K's less and /or up his HR's, he's a .270 -.290 hitter going forward.  If I were GM, I'd base my financial decision on that BA range plus a modest uptick in power. He still doesn't have the power that RF's should. Unless and until he does, he's no star.  Nor should he be paid like he is.
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:46 am

    So apparently even though .330 is clearly unrealistic, you believe he could hit .310.


    ***********************************************


    NO


    I'M SAYING THERE IS NOTHING MAGICAL ABOUT BABIP THAT WILL PREVENT GARCIA FROM HITTING 310.


    GARCIA WILL HIT WHAT HE WILL HIT IN 2018.  SANE PEOPLE FIGURE HE'LL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2016/2017 WHICH MAKE IT ROUGHLY 290


    BUT WHO THE HELL REALLY KNOWS.


    WHAT I FIND ABSOLUTELY SILLY IS SPLITTING HITS AT BATS INTO TWO DOZEN DIFFERENT CATEGORIES AND THEN TRY TO DETERMINE WHICH WERE LUCKY, WHICH WERE ON PAR, AND WHICH WERE UNLUCKY.  THEN RECONFIGURE THIS MESSED JUST SO ONE CAN PROCLAIM ALL LOGICAL DEFINITIONS MANDATE THAT AVISAIL GARCIA MUST BAT 273


    WHICH IS BASICALLY WHAT YOU DID IN THE POST ABOVE
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:59 am

    LEaving the other 55 pts. over league average a mystery.  You can't explain why, I can't explain it other than to say his balls just went to the right places.  




    **********************************


    1980, GEORGE BRETT HITS 392
    1981, HE BATS 314


    SOMETIMES PLAYERS GET SO HOT THEY DON'T COOL OFF UNTIL THE NEXT YEAR


    BTW, GARCIA IS 26 IN MLB IN OPS AMOUNG THOSE WITH 502 OR MOR PA.  SOUNDS LIKE AN ALL STAR TO ME.  IN FACT, HIS 2017 PERFORMANCE WOULD MAKE HIM THE BEST HITTER ON HALF THE TEAMS IN MLB
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    Hawk Harrelson
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Hawk Harrelson on Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:02 am

    Win Now-Reload for Murph!!


    Murph matters!!!
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    rmapasad
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by rmapasad on Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:53 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:LEaving the other 55 pts. over league average a mystery.  You can't explain why, I can't explain it other than to say his balls just went to the right places.  




    **********************************


    1980, GEORGE BRETT HITS 392
    1981, HE BATS 314

    SOMETIMES PLAYERS GET SO HOT THEY DON'T COOL OFF UNTIL THE NEXT YEAR

    BTW, GARCIA IS 26 IN MLB IN OPS AMOUNG THOSE WITH 502 OR MOR PA.  SOUNDS LIKE AN ALL STAR TO ME.  IN FACT, HIS 2017 PERFORMANCE WOULD MAKE HIM THE BEST HITTER ON HALF THE TEAMS IN MLB

    Let's just say this: Garcia was ranked 177th in OPS for both 2015-2016 so jumping into top 30 in OPS is one of the most dramatic turnarounds in last 5 years.  Obviously driven primarily by his being # 3 in BA and  # 1 BABIP in majors.   While that is not to be ignored, neither is the fact that his other rankings were less impressive (119th in Isolated Power, 100th in strikeout avoidance, 179th in BB's drawn, and 90th in speed).  As I've said all along an increase in power will cushion whatever likely falloff comes from BA/BABIP dips.   Hopefully more power, along with him showing he can stay healthy, is what happens next.
    As 2017 was the year Garcia finally rescued his career, 2018 will help define what he kind of hitter he truly is going forward.
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:29 pm

    THE HAWK SAYS AVISAIL GARCIA IS SCARY STRONG


    THE POWER WILL COME


    TRUST IN THE HAWK
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    Soxillinirob
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    Re: The LF Debate

    Post by Soxillinirob on Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:32 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:THE HAWK SAYS AVISAIL GARCIA IS SCARY STRONG


    THE POWER WILL COME


    TRUST IN THE HAWK

    Joe Borchard was scary strong.

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    Re: The LF Debate

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