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    Summarizing the CF debate

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    Summarizing the CF debate

    Post by Guest on Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:29 am

    1)  Is it reasonable to expect anybody currently in the White Sox organization to preform better that CF and leadoff than Lorenzo Cain in 2018


         KARK: No
         The 1.8 Liar:  Who plays LF; Who closes, the rotation might be all rookies!!!!


    2)  Is it reasonable to expect anybody currently in the White Sox organization to perform better that CF and leadoff than Lorenzo Cain in 2019


         KARK: Of those currently in the organization, probably not
         The 1.8 Liar:  It took the Cubs 4 years and 2019 is only 3 which is one less than 4 making it impossible to contend in 2019 so we need to give Charlie Tilson and Leury Garcia another chance, but not Wily Garcia because the KARK and the HAWK like him too much


    3)  Is it reasonable to expect anybody currently in the White Sox organization to preform better that CF and leadoff than Lorenzo Cain in 2020


         KARK: Luis Robert could be ready, but that would mean he fly thru the minors.  It also assumes he maintains leadoff skills, which he may not
         The 1.8 Liar:  Cain will be 34!!!!!  Who ever heard of a ball player being good at age 34!!!!!!!


    4)  What about Billy Hamilton?


         KARK:  Makes sense if the price is right.  3rd best defensive CF in 2017 defintiely helps a young pitching staff
         The 1.8 Liar:  Your rushing the rebuilding process!!!!!  Good defense helping young pitchers is another one of your bizarre theories!!!  We need more Cody Asches!!!!  Not your over the hill over priced WIN NEVER losers!!!



    So I guess the 2018 White Sox should stick with Charlie Tilson because Doug Fister sucks.  The logic is undeniable
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    Re: Summarizing the CF debate

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:30 pm

    2 - Talk about who's lying here.  I've been saying all along that Willy Garcia is not a good CF choice because he doesn't have good range and flyball tracking.  His "tools" of size and strength don't provide that.  He does have a good arm which helps in corner OF though.  Next case.

    Luis Robert could be ready, but that would mean he fly thru the minors.  It also assumes he maintains leadoff skills, which he may not
         The 1.8 Liar:  Cain will be 34!!!!!  Who ever heard of a ball player being good at age 34!!!!!!!...

    Guys that put up eye-popping numbers can fly through the minors.  Realistically he may struggle in his initial trial in 2020 - maybe a high 600's OPS (or what Billy Hamilton basically has done his whole career) with good defense, OBP and speed.

    As to Cain at age 34.  History says that age doesn't treat CFers well defensively.  Of the top 20 defensive CFers (based on defense per 150 games), 17 were under the age of 30 this year.   Of the bottom 9 defensively, 7 were 30 or over (Ellsbury,Granderson, Span, Fowler, Blanco, Jones, Jackson).  Ellsbury is a perfect case in point as he started fading the minute the ink was dry on his big $$ deal.
    Cain has already started to decline defensively.  In 2017 Leury Garcia ranked 9th defensively to Cain's 25th. So enough of the nonsense that Lorenzo Cain will defensively prop up the young pitching staff where Leury Garcia can't.  

    If you're a contender, signing Ellsbury can make sense as you need to patch a black hole to win now even if it's a bad value.  You recoup the investment by making postseason.  But no rebuilding club uses this logic and for obvious reasons.  You are focused on trying to get the most out of guys 28 and younger who will be with you over the next 4-5 years or more.  It makes zero sense to lay out $ 15-18 mil per to a 32 year old to "fix" a spot on a team that just won 67 games and has enough holes/question marks that 75 wins would be a real accomplishment.
    Which is why rebuilding GM's don't go after the big $$$ cream of the FA agent crop in the first couple years of a rebuild.  

    What about Billy Hamilton?      KARK:  Makes sense if the price is right.  3rd best defensive CF in 2017 defintiely helps a young pitching staff>
    Leury Garcia puts up 1.1 WAR in 340 PA's with plus, plus CF defense.  Billy Hamilton puts up 1.1 WAR over 630 PA's with plus, plus defense.  Hamilton has had better years than this and Leury has had a lot worse, so I'm not saying Leury is as good.  But what I am saying is that Hamilton with his career 650-ish OPS is not all that much better.  Certainly not worth the Sox making the sacrifice of talent the Reds would want to give up Hamilton. While Hamilton isn't worth a Moncada or Gioloto, he's worth something more than Dylan Covey.  

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    Re: Summarizing the CF debate

    Post by Guest on Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:22 am

    JUST WONDERING


    THE WHITE SOX HAVE TWO GARCIA'S THAT CLEARLY HAD CAREER YEARS IN 2017.


    SEEMS TO ME YOU THINK ONE GARCIA IS MORE REAL THAN THE OTHER GARCIA


    CARE TO ELABORATE

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    Re: Summarizing the CF debate

    Post by Guest on Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:39 am

    In 2017 Leury Garcia ranked 9th defensively to Cain's 25th. So enough of the nonsense that Lorenzo Cain will defensively prop up the young pitching staff where Leury Garcia can't.  


    *************************


    From your beloved Fangraphs:


    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0


    I SEE CAIN AS NUMBER #9, NOT LEURY GARCIA.  THE ONLY NONSENSE I SEE IS PUTTING FAITH IN A CAREER UTILITY INFIELDER THAT HAD A HOT MONTH, GOT HURT, THEN REVERTED BACK TO FORM.  NOT TO MENTION THAT AT 5'7" HE REALLY DOESN'T HAVE THE TOOLS.  WHITE SOX WOULD BE BETTER OFF GIVING ADAM ENGEL ANOTHER CHANCE SINCE HE DOES HAVE THE TOOLS.  GRADE 80 SPEED.  ABOVE AVERAGE ARM.  CLEARLY THE BEST DEFENSIVE OUTFIELDER IN THE ORG.  PLUS HE IS YOUNGER THAN GARCIA


    PS, CAIN EDGES OUT ADAM ENGEL WHEN I REDUCE THE CHART BELOW TO 700 INNINGS.  #13 TO #14


    PSS, AT 400 INNINGS, GARCIA DOES EDGE OUT CAIN AT #15 TO #17, BUT NOT THIS WILD CLAIM OF #9 TO #25. OR WAS THAT SIX TO FOUR.  SO STOP THIS NONSENSE THAT GARCIA IS SOMEHOW A SUPERIOR DEFENDER.  HIS SLIGHT ADVANTAGE PROBABLY DISAPPEARS WITH MORE PLAYING TIME.



    [th]#[/th][th]Name[/th][th]Team[/th][th]Pos[/th][th]Inn[/th][th]rSB[/th][th]rGDP[/th][th]rARM[/th][th]rGFP[/th][th]rPM[/th][th]DRS[/th][th]BIZ[/th][th]Plays[/th][th]RZR[/th][th]OOZ[/th][th]CPP[/th][th]RPP[/th][th]TZL[/th][th]FSR[/th][th]ARM[/th][th]DPR[/th][th]RngR[/th][th]ErrR[/th][th]UZR[/th][th]UZR/150[/th][th]Def[/th]

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     17 items in 1 pages
    1Byron BuxtonMINCF1143.0  002424288274.951115    -2.4 12.6-0.39.913.111.8
    2Michael TaylorWSNCF940.1  5319201188.93570    5.7 4.7-0.410.116.911.7
    3Billy HamiltonCINCF1175.1  6309243230.94771    7.0 -0.20.87.610.09.6
    4Odubel HerreraPHICF1144.0  2-233262243.92880    0.5 6.7-0.46.89.38.8
    5Kevin PillarTORCF1343.1  321015240223.92993    3.5 1.21.46.07.48.3
    6Manuel MargotSDPCF1049.2  2-288227200.88173    2.0 3.00.25.26.97.0
    7Jackie Bradley Jr.BOSCF1204.1  0639236221.93679    -1.6 4.71.14.24.96.2
    8Ender InciarteATLCF1359.2  0-275306281.918129    -2.3 3.70.82.22.64.6
    9Lorenzo CainKCRCF1275.0  -60115319294.922136    -3.5 6.7-1.61.62.43.8
    10Christian YelichMIACF1368.2  -6-22-6324290.89580    -8.0 6.51.50.1-0.72.4

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    Re: Summarizing the CF debate

    Post by Guest on Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:49 am

    LMAO!!!!!!!


    LEURY GARCIA UZR/150 GETS CUT IN HALF WHEN YOU INCLUDE ALL HIS OUTFIELD WORK, NOT JUST CF.  9.6 TO 4.7


    SO MUCH FOR HIS PLUS PLUS DEFENSE


    AGAIN, EVERYTHING PINTS TO A SCRUB THAT HAD A HOT MONTH THAN WENT TO THE DL WHICH LIMITED HIS CRASH BACK TO EARTH IN THE 2ND HALF
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    Re: Summarizing the CF debate

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:28 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:LMAO!!!!!!!


    LEURY GARCIA UZR/150 GETS CUT IN HALF WHEN YOU INCLUDE ALL HIS OUTFIELD WORK, NOT JUST CF.  9.6 TO 4.7


    SO MUCH FOR HIS PLUS PLUS DEFENSE


    AGAIN, EVERYTHING PINTS TO A SCRUB THAT HAD A HOT MONTH THAN WENT TO THE DL WHICH LIMITED HIS CRASH BACK TO EARTH IN THE 2ND HALF

    OK, I am going to recant some on Leury's defense here, because while UZR/150 shows him 9th and Cain as 25th another defensive system (Inside Edge) shows Cain as somewhat better at non-routine and difficult plays. Inside Edge also shows Buxton and Kiermiaer (long viewed as best CFers) at the top of those lists.  IE has Adam Engel better than both Cain and Leury,.  
    So I agree Engel is better than Leury defensively and Leury may not be any better than Cain the way  UZR 150 makes out. But Leury is not deficient defensively.  Offensively, Cain has clearly been way superior to both.  Leury was a .300 hitter his last two years in AAA so it's possible that he could hit .260+ plus in majors although his power and BB rate is at 4th OFer levels.  Engel's hitting looks pretty hopeless - .230 hitter in AAA in addition to his .166 with big club.
    Obviously if the Sox were a contender in 2018, they'd not want either Leury or Engel as their starting CFer.  But they're not going to contend in 2018 nor likely 2019 since majority of their top prospects were still in AA or lower this year.  Meaning that the glaring holes of 3b, LF, Catcher and DH won't be solved until 2020 at least internally. Then there's Closer and the bullpen.  
    Question is how good will Cain be in 2020-2021 when it's more logical to expect the Sox to be ready to contend ?  And if he isn't going to be nearly as good as now (distinct possibility) why tie up $ 16-17 mil per year in payroll that could be put to better uses ?
    So I wouldn't be surprised and it would make perfect sense for Sox to pass on Cain and his $ 60-75 mil pricetag this season.  This is still relatively early in the rebuild.  No need to rush out with win-now moves yet.

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    Re: Summarizing the CF debate

    Post by Guest on Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:38 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:LMAO!!!!!!!


    LEURY GARCIA UZR/150 GETS CUT IN HALF WHEN YOU INCLUDE ALL HIS OUTFIELD WORK, NOT JUST CF.  9.6 TO 4.7


    SO MUCH FOR HIS PLUS PLUS DEFENSE


    AGAIN, EVERYTHING PINTS TO A SCRUB THAT HAD A HOT MONTH THAN WENT TO THE DL WHICH LIMITED HIS CRASH BACK TO EARTH IN THE 2ND HALF

    OK, I am going to recant some on Leury's defense here, because while UZR/150 shows him 9th and Cain as 25th another defensive system (Inside Edge) shows Cain as somewhat better at non-routine and difficult plays. Inside Edge also shows Buxton and Kiermiaer (long viewed as best CFers) at the top of those lists.  IE has Adam Engel better than both Cain and Leury,.  
    So I agree Engel is better than Leury defensively and Leury may not be any better than Cain the way  UZR 150 makes out. But Leury is not deficient defensively.  Offensively, Cain has clearly been way superior to both.  Leury was a .300 hitter his last two years in AAA so it's possible that he could hit .260+ plus in majors although his power and BB rate is at 4th OFer levels.  Engel's hitting looks pretty hopeless - .230 hitter in AAA in addition to his .166 with big club.
    Obviously if the Sox were a contender in 2018, they'd not want either Leury or Engel as their starting CFer.  But they're not going to contend in 2018 nor likely 2019 since majority of their top prospects were still in AA or lower this year.  Meaning that the glaring holes of 3b, LF, Catcher and DH won't be solved until 2020 at least internally. Then there's Closer and the bullpen.  
    Question is how good will Cain be in 2020-2021 when it's more logical to expect the Sox to be ready to contend ?  And if he isn't going to be nearly as good as now (distinct possibility) why tie up $ 16-17 mil per year in payroll that could be put to better uses ?
    So I wouldn't be surprised and it would make perfect sense for Sox to pass on Cain and his $ 60-75 mil pricetag this season.  This is still relatively early in the rebuild.  No need to rush out with win-now moves yet.



    THE KARK DOESN'T PAY THE CAIN PRICE TAG YOU LIST ON THE BOTTOM.  BUT IF BY SOME FLUKE HE'S UNSIGNED AT THE END OF JANUARY, THEN I OFFER HIM A 3 YEAR DEAL.


    AS FOR YOUR OTHER GLARING HOLES IN THE LINEUP, DON'T BE SURPRISED IF JIMINEZ IS IN LF IN THE 2ND HALF.  COLLINS MAY BE CATCHING IN SEPTEMBER, BUT GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE POSITION, WOULD LOVE A LUCROY FOR THIS YEAR AND THE NEXT TO MENTOR HIM.  HOWEVER, I DO ADMIT IT MY BE WISHFUL THINKING ON MY PART THAT LUCROY SETTLES FOR TWO YEAR DEAL.  3B REALLY ISN'T AN ISSUE SINCE MONCADA, DAVIDSON, DELMONICO AND SANCHEZ ARE YOUR 4 LEADING CANDIDATES.  DH...  THE KARK LEAVES THAT OPEN TO GIVE REGULARS HALF DAYS OFF AND TO PROVIDE AT BATS TO THE BENCH AND ROOKIES.


    PS, I AGREE THAT ADAM ENGEL HITTING WITH ANY DEGREE OF RESPECTIBILITY WILL MOST LIKELY NEVER HAPPEN.  HOWEVER, IF WE ARE WRITING OFF 2018, MIGHT AS WELL PLAY THE TOOLSY LONG SHOT.  PLUS ENGEL'S DEFENSE HELPS THE YOUNG PITCHING STAFF.  AN ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE THE WHITE SOX SHOULD PLAY A DEFENSIVE LINEUP WHILE WAITING FOR THE REAL PROSPECT TO PROVE THEMSELVES MLB READY
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    Re: Summarizing the CF debate

    Post by rmapasad on Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:32 am

    OK, if Cain would take a 3 year, $ 40-45 million deal it might be worth thinking about. By 2020 Robert may not be fully ready and Cain still could have value. But by 2021, he's probably a payroll albatross. You also seem to agree that's too far out to go on him. 
    Doubt Cain will take a 3 year deal from the get-go.  So I think it's a waste of time to discuss this further unless/until the market has dried up for him and it's realistic to think he might settle for terms the Sox could live with.  

    Re: Lucroy, his power took a serious dive this year (24 to 6 HRs) and according to Baseball Reference's metric his defense did too.   I know he wants to re-sign with Rockies and that ballpark is where guys' fading hitting skills can fade away more gently.  2017's performance may not get him more than a 2 year deal but I see little good he can do for the Sox in 2018-2019.  Narvaez still has some value and he and Zavala, who had a good year in the minors, can fight it out for the eventual backup role to Collins in 2020.  IF the Sox need a mentor for Collins, let them hire a special Catching coach like Sandy Alomar.  A lot cheaper than $ 8-10 million to a declining Catcher.

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    Re: Summarizing the CF debate

    Post by Guest on Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:27 am

    ZAVALA?!?!?!?!?!?

    HE'S A LEVEL BEHIND COLLINS!!!!!!!

    AS FOR NARVAEZ, CHECK OUT HIS POOR FRAMING STATS AND POOR STOLEN BASES AGAINST STATS.

    A QUALITY DEFENSIVE CATCHER IS NEEDED.  PREFERABLY RIGHTHANDED.  I'M SURE IF THE WHITE SOX LOOKED HARD ENOUGH, THEY COULD FIND A DOUG GWOSDZ CLONE IN THE MINORS. 

    PS, AS LONG AS NARVAEZ IS STILL FOOLING PITCHERS, THE KARK LEADS HIM OFF AGAINST RHSP.  SOMEOBODY TELL THE WHITE SOX FAST AND BLACK ARE NOT THE TOP TOP REQUIREMENTS NEEDED IN A LEAD OFF HITTER.  EVEN IF TIM ANDERSON IS MOST LIKELY THE OTHER HALF OF THE PLATOON.

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    Re: Summarizing the CF debate

    Post by Guest on Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:36 am

    OK, if Cain would take a 3 year, $ 40-45 million deal it might be worth thinking about. By 2020 Robert may not be fully ready and Cain still could have value. But by 2021, he's probably a payroll albatross.


    *************************************


    NOW THAT THE TRUCE HAS BEEN FOUND, HERE'S THE WINTERS REAL ISSUE


    SHOULD YOLMER SANCHEZ BE THE 2B OF THE FUTURE.


    TO ME, IT MAKES ZERO SENSE PLAYING HIM FULL TIME AT 3B.  EITHER 


    A) HE CAN HIT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN EVERYDAY POSITION IN WHICH CASE HE SHOULD BE 2B.  PLUS I THINK MONCADA PLAYS BETTER DEFENSIVELY AT 3B THAN 2B.  MEANING MONCADA GIVES JUST AVERAGE DEFENSE AT 2B BUT ABOVE AVERAGE AT 3B.  YOLMER IS A GOLD GLOVER AT 2B, PROBABLY NOT AT 3B.


    OR


    B) YOLMER IS THE NEW DARWIN BARNEY AND CAN'T HIT ENOUGH, IN WHICH CASE HE SHOULD BE USED IN A UTILITY ROLE.  THEN USE 3B TO PLAY DAVIDSON AND/OR DELMONICO


    THE KARK LEANS WITH CHOICE A.  WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER QUESTION.  ARE THEIR ANY SABERMETRIC STUDIES THAT ANALYZE TEAM DEFENSES AS A WHOLE?  AND WHAT ARE THE EFFECTS OF REPLACING A BAD FIELDER WITH A GOOD ONE AND VICE VERSA.


    THAT KARK SUSPECTS IT FOLLOWS A UTILITY CURVE AND THAT THE WHITE SOX SHOULD FOCUS MORE ON DEFENSE IN 2018.  THIS WILL HELP THE PITCHING STAFF WHICH IS NEEDED SINCE THE STAFF OF THE FUTURE IS MOSTLY HERE

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