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    A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

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    Hawk Harrelson
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Hawk Harrelson on Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:24 am

    What do Murph and Howie think?
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    Soxillinirob
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Soxillinirob on Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:53 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Hilarious

    The guy that claimed the premature Adam Eaton contract saved $20+ million is suddenly cautionous about Garcia

    At least Eaton had a bit more of a track record of performing.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:29 pm

    Soxillinirob wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:Hilarious

    The guy that claimed the premature Adam Eaton contract saved $20+ million is suddenly cautionous about Garcia

    At least Eaton had a bit more of a track record of performing.


    Indeed.   Eaton had a .340/.448/.499 career minor league line - Garcia was .291/.326/.411 career minor league.  Eaton struggled only in his first 350 major league AB's.. Garcia floundered for his first 1100..Eaton also stole bases, had good defense and good OBP as fallbacks even if he didn't always hit .300+.   What are Garcia's fallbacks if he doesn't hit .300+ ? His plate discipline still stinks, power is below par for RF, and his defense is subpar.  

    Plus with Eaton 5 years away from free agency, he had limited bargaining power and Sox got him for a mere $23 million guaranteed over 5 years, plus option years for his first two years of free agency.   They had a top performer under contract for 7 years at $ 45 million if they wanted him that long. That he fetched Gioloto and Lopez in a trade shows just how good a value his contract was.

    Garcia's only 2 years away from big free agency money.  Could get $ 6 mil in arb in 2018, $ 9 + mil in 2019 if next year is also good. Then maybe $ 12-14 mil per year in free agency if he's still hitting.
    Logically Garcia's agent will want some big guaranteed money for Sox locking up the next 5 years of Garcia, 3 of which would be free agent years. It will hardly be the $ 23 million that locked up Eaton's next 5 years. 
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    rmapasad
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:03 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Hilarious

    The guy that claimed the premature Adam Eaton contract saved $20+ million is suddenly cautionous about Garcia

    LMAO

    Now you know why I claim people deliberately disagree with me.

    Garcia has another year like this and the price tag doubles

    Instead of seeing the obvious, your trying to sell the board on your faulty calculus.  Garcia has a higher 2nd half OPS.  A direct contradiction to your lucky ground ball hit theory which you claimed would cause a 100 point OPS drop


    Fuck it.  I still don't buy into Avi Garcia as a stud worth extending. He ranks 89th in the majors in exit velocity this year, 92nd in Isolated Power, and 132nd in BB rate.   He doesn't steal bases, doesn't hit HR's any better than your average Shortstop, and plays subpar defense. 

    He's been superb at one thing this year - groundball singles - 2nd in the majors in that category. Yes, he's kept up that act up month after month.  I'll give him that and it's not all luck.  But a lot of it is and it's foolish to believe he'll keep that up indefinitely into the future and pay up big in that belief.  

    It was worth taking the small $ 3 million gamble this year that Avi could get get out of the sewer. Now that he has, it's worth $ 6 mil next year to gamble that Avi could show some real substantive skills - like cracking the top 40 in power and hard hit balls.  Shit, even if he could prove he could be the Singles King one more time, I'd be impressed.  Let him prove that he just didn't pull one career year out of his ass in 2017 before giving him a bushel of money.  
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    Hawk Harrelson
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Hawk Harrelson on Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:38 pm

    What does Raymond Ruether think?
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:42 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:Hilarious

    The guy that claimed the premature Adam Eaton contract saved $20+ million is suddenly cautionous about Garcia

    LMAO

    Now you know why I claim people deliberately disagree with me.

    Garcia has another year like this and the price tag doubles

    Instead of seeing the obvious, your trying to sell the board on your faulty calculus.  Garcia has a higher 2nd half OPS.  A direct contradiction to your lucky ground ball hit theory which you claimed would cause a 100 point OPS drop


    Fuck it.  I still don't buy into Avi Garcia as a stud worth extending. He ranks 89th in the majors in exit velocity this year, 92nd in Isolated Power, and 132nd in BB rate.   He doesn't steal bases, doesn't hit HR's any better than your average Shortstop, and plays subpar defense. 

    He's been superb at one thing this year - groundball singles - 2nd in the majors in that category. Yes, he's kept up that act up month after month.  I'll give him that and it's not all luck.  But a lot of it is and it's foolish to believe he'll keep that up indefinitely into the future and pay up big in that belief.  

    It was worth taking the small $ 3 million gamble this year that Avi could get get out of the sewer. Now that he has, it's worth $ 6 mil next year to gamble that Avi could show some real substantive skills - like cracking the top 40 in power and hard hit balls.  Shit, even if he could prove he could be the Singles King one more time, I'd be impressed.  Let him prove that he just didn't pull one career year out of his ass in 2017 before giving him a bushel of money.  


    THE HAWK SAYS GARCIA IS SCARY STRONG.  ONE OF THE STRONGEST MEN TO EVER PLAY THE GAME


    I'M SURE THE HOMERS WILL COME.  ESPECIALLY AFTER A WINTER TO HEAL HIS HAND.


    AND YES, THE WHOLE WORLD KNOWS A 333BA IS A FLUKE.  COMMON SENSE SAYS SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS YEAR AND LAST YEAR AND THATS 290.  ADD IN 30 HR AND THAT S/B ABOUT A 500SLG.  SO THATS AN 850OPS


    SO I GUESS YOU'RE CORRECT ABOUT HIM HITTING LIKE A SHORT STOP.  HE'LL HAVE THE SAME OPS AS TIME ANDERSON
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    rmapasad
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:30 pm

    THE HAWK SAYS GARCIA IS SCARY STRONG.  ONE OF THE STRONGEST MEN TO EVER PLAY THE GAME

    I'M SURE THE HOMERS WILL COME.  ESPECIALLY AFTER A WINTER TO HEAL HIS HAND.

    AND YES, THE WHOLE WORLD KNOWS A 333BA IS A FLUKE.  COMMON SENSE SAYS SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS YEAR AND LAST YEAR AND THATS 290.  ADD IN 30 HR AND THAT S/B ABOUT A 500SLG.  SO THATS AN 850OPS


    SO I GUESS YOU'RE CORRECT ABOUT HIM HITTING LIKE A SHORT STOP.  HE'LL HAVE THE SAME OPS AS TIME ANDERSON  >>>


    Hawk's job is to (over)hype White Sox players.  What did he say about Tank, for example ?
    Garcia, even with a supposedly healthy hand was only on pace for a 20 HR yearly rate in first 3 months this season..
    Yes, he's strong but he's not like big bombers such as Stanton, Judge, Gallo, JD Martinez, Bellinger, etc.  who are hitting the ball in the air 40 -55% of the time.  Avi is only at 27% this year, nearly the same rate he's been for prior 3 years.  In fact, he ranks 219th in majors in flyball rate, behind guys like Melky and Tim Anderson.


    With this kind of swing profile, expecting 30-35 HR's may be overoptimistic.  Guys like JD Martinez and Justin Turner have deliberately changed their launch angles to hit more FB's. Maybe Avi will do the same.  But until he does, I don't pay a guy whose history is 15-20 HR's as though he'll suddenly start hitting 30-35 HR's. 
    IMO, Sox can wait and see what 2018 or maybe at most guarantee Avi $ 6 mil for 2018 and $ 8 mil for 2019 and see if he'll take $ 12-13 mil per yr options on 2020-2021 seasons.  That's relatively limited risk for the Sox.   
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:40 pm

    BI was thinking 10 years $200mil, but then it's not my money

    geek
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    rmapasad
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:38 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:BI was thinking 10 years $200mil, but then it's not my money

    geek


    Sox are shedding $ 60 million in 2017 salaries with departures of Quintana, Robertson, Cabrera, Frazier, Holland, Soto, etc.  They now have a bare-bones payroll for 2018. 
    Who knows.  They could decide to blow some of this newly found largesse on a big extension to Avi.

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