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    A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

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    A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:24 pm

    THE KARK read on the Bleacher Report that Tim Anderson underwent grief counselling in July


    Since august 1, he has been much improved in the field and at the plate.


    I believe he is OPSing over 850 since 8/1


    who claimed Anderson would have a career peak of 850+


    Once again the KARK's eyeballs proof just as good as the mathematical masterbators glorified regression models
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:45 am

    <<I believe he is OPSing over 850 since 8/1
    who claimed Anderson would have a career peak of 850+
    Once again the KARK's eyeballs proof just as good as the mathematical masterbators glorified regression models>>


    1- Citing his 850 OPS since Aug 1st is not "eyeball proof."  
    2 - Using 100-150 PA hot streaks as evidence is ridiculous.  Nick Delmonico is at 923 right now. What does that mean ?
    3- Anderson still has a 27% K and 3 % BB rate in Aug/Sept. Only remedy for those weaknesses are
    extreme bursts of power and BABIP.  Those remedies are called hot streaks and they aren't very long, as Anderson's seasonal 682 OPS shows. 
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:54 am

    And Anderson has been hot since 8/1


    and now he's leading the team in steals.


    Just like another HOFer Sox SS from the 50'S
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:38 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:And Anderson has been hot since 8/1


    and now he's leading the team in steals.


    Just like another HOFer Sox SS from the 50'S


    He's been on fire since Sept 3rd. (1.284 OPS fueled by an insane .624 BABIP) and that's why his August 1st - present OPS has vaulted over 850.  Yet his seasonal OPS is still 682 and he ranks 15th in WAR among the roster of sad-sack White Sox position players this year.   Even in this latest hot streak he's still striking out 29% of the time and walking 3%.  He's same completely undisciplined hacker he's been since Day 1.  

    Tim Anderson's .10 BB/K ratio is the worst among all 425 players who've had 800 or more PA's since 2012.  Nobody has survived past 1500 PA's in recent years with a ratio of .15 or worse.

    TA's current season is an unsurprising byproduct of a 2.5% walk rate and 26% K rate.  He only managed to reach decency (736 OPS) last year with a .375 BABIP. You now see the results that a more realistic .320 BABIP brings this year.  Even a still-high .340-ish BABIP would only make him a low-mid 700's guy with his current BB/K rates.  

    Anderson cannot succeed with his plate discipline remaining as-is.   He may not even survive if it doesn't improve.  It's as simple as that. 









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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:54 pm

    and now he's leading the team in steals. wrote:
    Just like another HOFer Sox SS from the 50'S

    10 stolen bases grabs the team lead !!!!!  


    Only 18 behind Aparicio's sophomore season.  Think Luis' 53 walks v. Anderson's projected 15 this year might have given Little Louie a few more SB opportunities ?
    Can't steal 1st base.
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:26 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:And Anderson has been hot since 8/1


    and now he's leading the team in steals.


    Just like another HOFer Sox SS from the 50'S


    He's been on fire since Sept 3rd. (1.284 OPS fueled by an insane .624 BABIP) and that's why his August 1st - present OPS has vaulted over 850.  Yet his seasonal OPS is still 682 and he ranks 15th in WAR among the roster of sad-sack White Sox position players this year.   Even in this latest hot streak he's still striking out 29% of the time and walking 3%.  He's same completely undisciplined hacker he's been since Day 1.  

    Tim Anderson's .10 BB/K ratio is the worst among all 425 players who've had 800 or more PA's since 2012.  Nobody has survived past 1500 PA's in recent years with a ratio of .15 or worse.

    TA's current season is an unsurprising byproduct of a 2.5% walk rate and 26% K rate.  He only managed to reach decency (736 OPS) last year with a .375 BABIP. You now see the results that a more realistic .320 BABIP brings this year.  Even a still-high .340-ish BABIP would only make him a low-mid 700's guy with his current BB/K rates.  

    Anderson cannot succeed with his plate discipline remaining as-is.   He may not even survive if it doesn't improve.  It's as simple as that. 



    WE ALL REALIZE ANDERSON NEEDS TO IMPROVE


    SOME OF US ARE JUST A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THAT PENDING IMPROVEMENT


    AND YOU BABIP STUFF STILL READS LIKE GIBBERISH
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:48 pm

    JUST CHECKED THE SPLITS


    ANDERSON IS ALMOST 70 POINTS BELOW THE LEAGUE AVERAGE WHEN HITTING LINE DRIVES.  HIS OPS ON LINERS IS ALMOST 200 BELOW AVERAGE.


    ANDERSON IS A STRONG KID, SO THE ONLY LOGICAL EXPLANATION IS THAT HE HAS BEEN HITTING INTO BAD LUCK.


    SO THIS TELLS ME THAT AS ANDERSON LOSES LUCKY GROUNDBALL SINGLES, HE WILL BE GAINING UNLUCKY LINE DRIVE HITS, HALF OF WHICH WILL BE FOR EXTRA BASES.


    A FURTHER LOOK AT THE SPLITS SHOWS THAT ANDERSON ACTUALLY TURNED THE CORNER IN MAY WHEN HE HIT 319 WITH AN SLG OF 500


    IT WAS THE TRAUMA OF DEALING WITH THE DEATH OF HIS FRIEND THAT LEAD TO THE 520 OPS IN JUNE AND JULY.


    IN AUGUST, ANDERSON WAS BACK TO SLUGGING 500.  AND NOW HE IS KICKING ASS IN THE YEAR'S TOUGHEST MONTH, SEPTEMBER.


    STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE ANDERSON EXTENSION IS GOING TO BE A MASSIVE BARGAIN FOR THE WHITE SOX
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:26 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:JUST CHECKED THE SPLITS
    ANDERSON IS ALMOST 70 POINTS BELOW THE LEAGUE AVERAGE WHEN HITTING LINE DRIVES.  HIS OPS ON LINERS IS ALMOST 200 BELOW AVERAGE.
    ANDERSON IS A STRONG KID, SO THE ONLY LOGICAL EXPLANATION IS THAT HE HAS BEEN HITTING INTO BAD LUCK.
    SO THIS TELLS ME THAT AS ANDERSON LOSES LUCKY GROUNDBALL SINGLES, HE WILL BE GAINING UNLUCKY LINE DRIVE HITS, HALF OF WHICH WILL BE FOR EXTRA BASES.
    A FURTHER LOOK AT THE SPLITS SHOWS THAT ANDERSON ACTUALLY TURNED THE CORNER IN MAY WHEN HE HIT 319 WITH AN SLG OF 500
    IT WAS THE TRAUMA OF DEALING WITH THE DEATH OF HIS FRIEND THAT LEAD TO THE 520 OPS IN JUNE AND JULY.
    IN AUGUST, ANDERSON WAS BACK TO SLUGGING 500.  AND NOW HE IS KICKING ASS IN THE YEAR'S TOUGHEST MONTH, SEPTEMBER.
    STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE ANDERSON EXTENSION IS GOING TO BE A MASSIVE BARGAIN FOR THE WHITE SOX

     
    Let's give him the league average .657 on liners due to bad luck this year. That's 6 more hits, but 1-2 might be doubles. Meaning his line this year goes to 266/286/430 or 716 OPS with a robust .344 BABIP.

    That's the problem with all his strikeouts and virtually no walks.  He has to have way above average rates of flyball, groundball and linedrive hit rates (BABIP) in order to get close to 800 OPS, let alone 850.
    His 850 from August 1st onward is somewhat illusory because most all of it is driven by the last 9 days. From August 1st thru Sept 2nd his OPS was 741.  But since Sept 3rd his  BABIP has been off the charts (600+) and it's lifted his Aug-Sept numbers as a whole quite a bit.

    I don't deny his talent.  It takes raw talent to overcome the tremendous handicaps he has made for himself with his poor plate discipline.  He can overcome his handicaps for short bursts but not over the long haul.  

    He had a 500-ish OPS in April and an 833 May before his June/July 500-ish calamities.  August was an OK month.  But he's in a zone in September. Zones don't last and for guys like him, cold spells can be as devastatingly bad as the hot spells can be good.

    The only definition of getting his head on straight that matters is increasing the BB's and decreasing the K's.  He won't succeed without doing that.  He's got time and I do give him some chance to improve on those things.  What I don't buy is that he'll be very successful without making those improvements.
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:18 pm

    Again, nobody is denying he needs to improve

    Some of us are confident improvement is pending

    Others......

    Let's just say they had an enjoyable relaxing vacation
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:00 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Again, nobody is denying he needs to improve

    Some of us are confident improvement is pending


    BELIEVE !!!!    

    Look, guys have started their careers with terrible plate discipline and gone on
    to have good careers.  Two that come to mind are Alfonzo Soriano and Miguel
    Tejada.  Only thing is that they belonged to organizations that stressed
    plate discipline and those guys changed almost immediately.  

    Sox have never been committed to that and by giving Anderson his extension and
    continuing to bat him 1st/2nd this year, I wonder whether any message will be
    conveyed to him at all.

    A more recent example is Jonathan Schoop who has finally come into his own
    at age 25 this year.  Orioles aren't noted for stressing plate discipline either but
    finally in a year when Schoop has nearly doubled his walk rate, he's seeing big results.

    It could happen for Anderson too, but somehow he's got to get the incentive to
    change.  
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:43 am

    SOMEHOW GET THE INCENTIVE TO CHANGE?!?!?!?!?


    Gee, I just figured Anderson was smart enough to realize that batting 250 and leading the league in errors aren't the mark of greatness and that personal pride would kick in and lead to improvement.


    Who knows, maybe Avisail Garcia will serve as an inspiration to him
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:31 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:SOMEHOW GET THE INCENTIVE TO CHANGE?!?!?!?!?

    Gee, I just figured Anderson was smart enough to realize that batting 250 and leading the league in errors aren't the mark of greatness and that personal pride would kick in and lead to improvement.

    Who knows, maybe Avisail Garcia will serve as an inspiration to him

    Actually Garcia must have been inspired by Anderson.  TA led the White Sox in BABIP last year and now Avi is leading not only the White Sox but the entire major leagues in that category this year.  Maybe Avi will also be rewarded with a nice extension for his ephemeral accomplishments.
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:24 pm

    NOBODY GIVES A RATS ASS ABOUT BIBITY BOBITY BABIP EXCEPT THAT MATHEMATICAL MASTERBATORS WHO NEVER PLAYED THE GAME SO THEY INVENTED A BUNCH OF FORMULAS TO MAKE IT SOUND MORE COMPLICATED THAT IT REALLY IS.


    AND YES, GARCIA DESERVES AN EXTENSION
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:09 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:NOBODY GIVES A RATS ASS ABOUT BIBITY BOBITY BABIP EXCEPT THAT MATHEMATICAL MASTERBATORS WHO NEVER PLAYED THE GAME SO THEY INVENTED A BUNCH OF FORMULAS TO MAKE IT SOUND MORE COMPLICATED THAT IT REALLY IS.


    AND YES, GARCIA DESERVES AN EXTENSION


    This was Garcia's career year.  Too bad it had to come when the Sox weren't a contender.
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:32 am

    I THOUGHT AGE 27 WAS THE CAREER YEAR AGE


    GARCIA IS ONLY 26


    WHAT HAPPENED TO ALL YOUR TALK ABOUT HIM TURNING INTO JOSE GUILLEN.


    AND ONCE AGAIN, I HAVE TO CHASTISED YOU FOR YOUR GENERIC AND MISLEADING OVERSIMPLIFICATION


    CURRENTLY, GARCIA OPS IS 888


    WHILE I ADMIT ITS QUITE POSSIBLE THIS WILL BE HIS CAREER HIGH, YOU MAKE IT SOUND LIKE THE BOTTOM IS ABOUT TO FALL OUT.


    ITS NOT.


    IF GARCIA GOES 880, 870, 860, 850 THE NEXT FOUR YEARS, WELL THAT IS STILL WORTH THE EXTENSION EVEN THOUGH HE NEVER REPEATED HIS CAREER YEAR OF 2017.


    PS, HIS 2ND OPS IS CURRENTLY 956.  OVER 100 POINT BETTER THAN THE FIRST HALF AND ABOUT 200 POINTS BETTER THAN YOUR PREDICTION BASED ON THE JUNK STAT OF BIBITY BOBITY BABIP
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:47 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:I THOUGHT AGE 27 WAS THE CAREER YEAR AGE
    GARCIA IS ONLY 26
    WHAT HAPPENED TO ALL YOUR TALK ABOUT HIM TURNING INTO JOSE GUILLEN.
    AND ONCE AGAIN, I HAVE TO CHASTISED YOU FOR YOUR GENERIC AND MISLEADING OVERSIMPLIFICATION
    CURRENTLY, GARCIA OPS IS 888
    WHILE I ADMIT ITS QUITE POSSIBLE THIS WILL BE HIS CAREER HIGH, YOU MAKE IT SOUND LIKE THE BOTTOM IS ABOUT TO FALL OUT.
    ITS NOT.
    IF GARCIA GOES 880, 870, 860, 850 THE NEXT FOUR YEARS, WELL THAT IS STILL WORTH THE EXTENSION EVEN THOUGH HE NEVER REPEATED HIS CAREER YEAR OF 2017.
    PS, HIS 2ND OPS IS CURRENTLY 956.  OVER 100 POINT BETTER THAN THE FIRST HALF AND ABOUT 200 POINTS BETTER THAN YOUR PREDICTION BASED ON THE JUNK STAT OF BIBITY BOBITY BABIP

    My comp to Guillen (and others) was based on a power surge at age 26.  But Avi only went from 140 to 176 ISO this year.  He could still build on that improvement in the future, but he needs to as these days RFers should be 200+ ISO's.

    Given his 176 ISO and 47 OBP-BA, you see how critical BA is to maintaining a mid-high 800+'s OPS
    This year is 333 BA/ 380 OBP/ 509 Slug = 888 OPS but the other scenarios could be:
    290 BA, 337 OBP, 466 Slug = 803  OPS             or 270 BA, 317 OBP, 446 Slug = 763  OPS

    Where if his ISO goes up to 240 and his OBP-BA split goes to 70, then he can still post mid-800's by:
    275 BA/ 345 OBP/ 515 Slug  = 860 OPS.  But that requires big jumps in both power and discipline.

    My best guess is that Avi makes another modest jump in power and improves plate discipline slightly next but can't maintain the 300+ BA that was driven by a crazy .397 BABIP.   I see 280/340/470 = 810 as realistic but not worth breaking the bank for either. 

    They could be able to get him at $ 6 mil in arb and then give him an option for 2019 at $ 11 million with a $ 1 million buyout.   That takes him to free agency and if he's tearing up by mid next year, then the Sox could re-negotiate a longer term deal at that point. 
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:32 pm

    NOBODY INVENTS NUMBERS BETTER THAN YOU DO
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:59 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:NOBODY INVENTS NUMBERS BETTER THAN YOU DO

    No invention of anything.  It is what is - 333 BA - 380 OBP - 509 Slug.   That's 176 ISO and 47 OBP spread over BA.   Now plug in BA to get his future OPS's.  


    Smart money brings him back in 2018 under 1-2 year deal to see if he can finally top 20 HR's.
    .
    Dumb money pays him like his 2017 Bat Avg. will last forever.
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:31 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:NOBODY INVENTS NUMBERS BETTER THAN YOU DO

    No invention of anything.  It is what is - 333 BA - 380 OBP - 509 Slug.   That's 176 ISO and 47 OBP spread over BA.   Now plug in BA to get his future OPS's.  

    THE INVENTION IS YOUR ASSUMPTION THAT THESE SPREADS ARE FIXED

    THEY AREN'T



    Smart money brings him back in 2018 under 1-2 year deal to see if he can finally top 20 HR's.
    .
    Dumb money pays him like his 2017 Bat Avg. will last forever.


    Smart money says his ISO increases once his injury heals


    Dumb money thinks that Bibity Bobity BABIP somehow drives batting average yet completely ignores how all the lucky groundball hits came rushing back after Garcia's injury severely hampered his power.


    It doesn't take a CPA with a 135 IQ to figure out that if BA goes up, so will BA - K - HR or BABIP will also go up
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by rmapasad on Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:19 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:NOBODY INVENTS NUMBERS BETTER THAN YOU DO

    No invention of anything.  It is what is - 333 BA - 380 OBP - 509 Slug.   That's 176 ISO and 47 OBP spread over BA.   Now plug in BA to get his future OPS's.  

    THE INVENTION IS YOUR ASSUMPTION THAT THESE SPREADS ARE FIXED

    THEY AREN'T



    Smart money brings him back in 2018 under 1-2 year deal to see if he can finally top 20 HR's.
    .
    Dumb money pays him like his 2017 Bat Avg. will last forever.


    Smart money says his ISO increases once his injury heals


    Dumb money thinks that Bibity Bobity BABIP somehow drives batting average yet completely ignores how all the lucky groundball hits came rushing back after Garcia's injury severely hampered his power.


    It doesn't take a CPA with a 135 IQ to figure out that if BA goes up, so will BA - K - HR or BABIP will also go up

    I am going to stick to my guns and my gut about Garcia.  I was right in thinking it made perfect sense to take the low-risk gamble on him this past Dec. since he was only 26 and the Sox weren't going to contend.  Now it makes perfect sense to wait and see what progress he'll make in 2018. 

    He's had an increase in power, cut his K's and made more consistent hard contact, all of which helped raise his BA.  But less than 20 HR's for a RFer is weak.  He draws even fewer BB's than before. His flyball tracking still leaves something to be desired.   And how much of his BA jump he will retain in future years ?  

    This will be the last time I jump into the weeds on his BA, but the facts are so glaring they can't be ignored.  His 90 pt. bump in Bat Avg. is the biggest source of improved value this year, but the
    biggest chunk comes from raising his GB BA from .206 to .372. Even guys who hit the ball hard and run fast aren't assured of great GB BA year after year.  Like Mookie Betts (.267) this year or Bryce Harper in 2016 (.213).  Harper is another perfect example of the volatility of GB BA's as his rate has swung as much as 139 pts from one year to the next.

    Since he hits 1/2 his balls on the ground, 2 pts in GBBA will affect 1 pt of overall BA.  If Avi simply drops to leag avg GB rate (.246) next year, that brings him down to a .270 BA. If he averages .275 GBBA like his perfect physical prototype (Yusiel Puig) has for the past two years , then Avi is a .280-.285 hitter.

    So if his BA is "only" .280 in the years ahead does he add enough power and discipline to be a 860-880 stud  worth locking up four the next 4-5 years ?  Or is he a .280/.330/.465 middle of the road RFer  ?  By early 2019, Avi's last season before free agency, the Sox will know how he stacks up with the OF prospects they have.   Then they can decide what kind of longer term financial commitment to make or not make to him.  We still don't know exactly who and what this guy is likely to turn out to be yet.
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:37 am

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:NOBODY INVENTS NUMBERS BETTER THAN YOU DO

    No invention of anything.  It is what is - 333 BA - 380 OBP - 509 Slug.   That's 176 ISO and 47 OBP spread over BA.   Now plug in BA to get his future OPS's.  

    THE INVENTION IS YOUR ASSUMPTION THAT THESE SPREADS ARE FIXED

    THEY AREN'T



    Smart money brings him back in 2018 under 1-2 year deal to see if he can finally top 20 HR's.
    .
    Dumb money pays him like his 2017 Bat Avg. will last forever.


    Smart money says his ISO increases once his injury heals


    Dumb money thinks that Bibity Bobity BABIP somehow drives batting average yet completely ignores how all the lucky groundball hits came rushing back after Garcia's injury severely hampered his power.


    It doesn't take a CPA with a 135 IQ to figure out that if BA goes up, so will BA - K - HR or BABIP will also go up

    I am going to stick to my guns and my gut about Garcia.  I was right in thinking it made perfect sense to take the low-risk gamble on him this past Dec. since he was only 26 and the Sox weren't going to contend.  Now it makes perfect sense to wait and see what progress he'll make in 2018. 

    He's had an increase in power, cut his K's and made more consistent hard contact, all of which helped raise his BA.  But less than 20 HR's for a RFer is weak.  He draws even fewer BB's than before. His flyball tracking still leaves something to be desired.   And how much of his BA jump he will retain in future years ?  

    IF YOU STOPPED HERE, YOU'D BE FINE

    This will be the last time I jump into the weeds on his BA, but the facts are so glaring they can't be ignored.  His 90 pt. bump in Bat Avg. is the biggest source of improved value this year, but the
    biggest chunk comes from raising his GB BA from .206 to .372. Even guys who hit the ball hard and run fast aren't assured of great GB BA year after year.  Like Mookie Betts (.267) this year or Bryce Harper in 2016 (.213).  Harper is another perfect example of the volatility of GB BA's as his rate has swung as much as 139 pts from one year to the next.

    Since he hits 1/2 his balls on the ground, 2 pts in GBBA will affect 1 pt of overall BA.  If Avi simply drops to leag avg GB rate (.246) next year, that brings him down to a .270 BA. If he averages .275 GBBA like his perfect physical prototype (Yusiel Puig) has for the past two years , then Avi is a .280-.285 hitter.

    So if his BA is "only" .280 in the years ahead does he add enough power and discipline to be a 860-880 stud  worth locking up four the next 4-5 years ?  Or is he a .280/.330/.465 middle of the road RFer  ?  By early 2019, Avi's last season before free agency, the Sox will know how he stacks up with the OF prospects they have.   Then they can decide what kind of longer term financial commitment to make or not make to him.  We still don't know exactly who and what this guy is likely to turn out to be yet.

    THE REST IS MATHEMATICAL MASTERBATION


    NOT TO MENTION YOU COMPLETELY IGNORE HIS HAND INJURY, WHICH IS MORE RELEVANT THAN YOU CHERRY PICKED COMPARISON AND INVENTED NUMBERS.


    THEN THERE IS YOUR RIDUCULOUS ASSERTION THAT GROUND BALL HITS ARE NOTHING BUT LUCK.


    YOU DO REALIZE I CAN INVENT A SCENARIO THAT MAKES 295/350/505 THAT SOUNDS JUST AS PLAUSIBLE AS THE GIBBERISH YOU INSIST IS SOMEHOW GOSPEL
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:44 am

    If Avi simply drops to leag avg GB rate (.246)




    AND WHY THE HELL WOULD IT DO THAT?!?!?!?!?!?!??


    THIS CRAP IS ALL IN YOUR HEAD!!!!!!!


    WHAT ABOUT HIS BA ON LINERS OR FLY BALLS?!?!?!?!?


    HOW COME THESE AREN'T SUBJECT TO YOUR BS THEORY?


    QUIT MAKING UP NUMBERS LIKE YOU KNOW SOMETHING THAT YOU DON'T
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by rmapasad on Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:48 pm

    NOT TO MENTION YOU COMPLETELY IGNORE HIS HAND INJURY, WHICH IS MORE RELEVANT THAN YOU CHERRY PICKED COMPARISON AND INVENTED NUMBERS.>>
    He was out a couple weeks in late July/early Aug but came back to hit .423 in August and .394 in September, plus his Sept ISO has been the 2nd highest ISO month all year.  Not sure where the hand injury stuff is supposed to have hurt him.
    Besides, bringing up injury issues doesn't exactly strengthen his case for a long-term deal.


    THEN THERE IS YOUR RIDUCULOUS ASSERTION THAT GROUND BALL HITS ARE NOTHING BUT LUCK. >>
    Have never said they are 100% luck.  Guys who hit the ball harder and/or run fast (Mike Trout classic example) can top league GB rates. So Avi hitting the ball harder in 2017 accounts for SOME increase in GB rate.   It doesn't account for his EXTREME GB rate of .367 which is 50 pts higher than Mike Trout's.  Especially since Trout had a better avg. on LD's and FB's than Avi this year, and Trout is better at beating out IF singles than Avi. 
    Sometimes there are extreme cases like Bryce Harper's 140 pt jump or Avi's 160 point jump this year.   Yes, Avi beat league LD and FB rates and yes, maybe that means he will keep beating league GB rates too.  But he won't keep beating them by 120 pts like this year.

    YOU DO REALIZE I CAN INVENT A SCENARIO THAT MAKES 295/350/505 THAT SOUNDS JUST AS PLAUSIBLE AS THE GIBBERISH YOU INSIST IS SOMEHOW GOSPEL
    I don't insist anything is gospel with Avi Garcia.  He just climbed out from the sewer this year. 
    You're saying he could have a 210 ISO in that projection but he's only 172 this year and never cracked 140 before this season.  His batting average (minors or majors) had never been over .281 in any full season before 2017, then suddenly it's .333 
    I'm not saying he can't hit .295/.350/.505.. He could be another Justin Turner rags to riches story.  He could also be Wilson Ramos whose BA jumped 80 pts in 2016 then fell back 60 pts. in 2017.   Avi is still swinging at 40% of pitches out of the zone, and that's not elite company.  We're talking guys like Sal Perez, Corey Dickerson, Adam Jones, Javier Baez, Pablo Sandoval, Carlos Gomez who are .260-.280 hitters.  
    All I'm saying is that until we get a clearer picture of what the ultimate Avi Garcia will look like, there is no reason to reward him with an extension as though he's made a permanent jump from the outhouse to the penthouse in one fell swoop.  After Justin Turner's "breakout" year in 2014, the Dodgers waited another 2 full seasons of good performance before signing him to a $ 60 million, 4 year free agent deal this season.  
    IMO, that kind of caution is warranted here and even more so, given that some red flags on Avi's power and plate discipline still linger.  
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:47 pm

    Hilarious

    The guy that claimed the premature Adam Eaton contract saved $20+ million is suddenly cautionous about Garcia

    LMAO

    Now you know why I claim people deliberately disagree with me.

    Garcia has another year like this and the price tag doubles

    Instead of seeing the obvious, your trying to sell the board on your faulty calculus.  Garcia has a higher 2nd half OPS.  A direct contradiction to your lucky ground ball hit theory which you claimed would cause a 100 point OPS drop
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:06 pm

    And enough with the Mike Trout bullshit

    Sure Trout is the better player, but that doesn't mean he is necessarily better in every aspect

    And when you have the millions of splits like they do in baseball.  There is nothing unreasonable about Garcia besting Trout in some

    So spare me your bullshit naming dropping.   It proves nothing accept your weak analytical skills.

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    Re: A Little Timmy needed was a shrink

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