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    2 HR for Garcia

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    Deplorable Mark
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    2 HR for Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:38 pm

    I wonder if any of them were lucky groundball hits.

    Nice to see the White Sox piss away another game.  But congrats to Quintana winning his first game.  I think the Q will be the lefty Maddux for the Cubbies.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: 2 HR for Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:58 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:I wonder if any of them were lucky groundball hits.

    Nice to see the White Sox piss away another game.  But congrats to Quintana winning his first game.  I think the Q will be the lefty Maddux for the Cubbies.


    This is what Avi needs to do - hit for power.   Let's check in on him (and Quintana) a month from now.  Daily updates don't mean shit.
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    Hawk Harrelson
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    Re: 2 HR for Garcia

    Post by Hawk Harrelson on Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:54 am

    You can only play the game scheduled today, not a month from now.
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: 2 HR for Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:39 am

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:I wonder if any of them were lucky groundball hits.

    Nice to see the White Sox piss away another game.  But congrats to Quintana winning his first game.  I think the Q will be the lefty Maddux for the Cubbies.


    This is what Avi needs to do - hit for power.   Let's check in on him (and Quintana) a month from now.  Daily updates don't mean shit.

    DITTO ON HOW YOU GET YOUR HITS AS LONG AS YOU GET THEM.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: 2 HR for Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Mon Jul 17, 2017 3:26 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:I wonder if any of them were lucky groundball hits.

    Nice to see the White Sox piss away another game.  But congrats to Quintana winning his first game.  I think the Q will be the lefty Maddux for the Cubbies.


    This is what Avi needs to do - hit for power.   Let's check in on him (and Quintana) a month from now.  Daily updates don't mean shit.

    DITTO ON HOW YOU GET YOUR HITS AS LONG AS YOU GET THEM.

    HOW a guy gets his hits matters a lot in whether his BA has staying power.  HR's, groundrule doubles, solid line drives, scorching groundballs, or even speed to beat slow rollers are skill hits.  Ordinary groundballs that find holes, soft liners or bloops that fall in, bad hop hits, etc. are lucky hits that won't last over time. If Avi Garcia is to have lasting success it will come from hitting the ball hard and a long way consistently.  He is not a master of analyzing pitchers or steering balls through gaps in the defense (like Carew or Gwynn could).  Avi has shown more power this year which is good.
    His ISO is most important - if it's in the 190+ range that means he can be mid-high 700's guy even if his BA dips into the mid 200's.
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: 2 HR for Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Jul 17, 2017 6:06 pm

    Ordinary groundballs that find holes, soft liners or bloops that fall in, bad hop hits, etc. are lucky hits that won't last over time. 


    ******************************


    And where is your proof that Avisail Garcia has way too many of these?


    And what about unlucky outs?!?!?!?


    How many of those does Garcia have?


    His BA on line drives is 100 less than last year and 40 below his career average.


    That tells me that his unlucky outs line drive outs will cancel out his lucky groundball hits.


    Maybe you should look at the entire picture instead of cherrying picking.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: 2 HR for Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:14 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Ordinary groundballs that find holes, soft liners or bloops that fall in, bad hop hits, etc. are lucky hits that won't last over time. 


    ******************************


    And where is your proof that Avisail Garcia has way too many of these?


    And what about unlucky outs?!?!?!?


    How many of those does Garcia have?


    His BA on line drives is 100 less than last year and 40 below his career average.


    That tells me that his unlucky outs line drive outs will cancel out his lucky groundball hits.


    Maybe you should look at the entire picture instead of cherrying picking.


    Last year he hit .778 on LD 's v. .691 this year (Fan Graphs #'s, Baseball Reference may have slight difference). Often LD bat averages fluctuate  year to year for no real reason other than randomness.  Garcia's .778 last year was higher than Mike Trout's .707.  Does that make sense ?  So Garcia's .691 this year is actually more in line with Trout than last year.   The important thing is to hit more LD's since they carry such a high Bat Avg. and this year Avi is hitting more of them.  He would have had 4 more line drives (thus 3 more hits) last year if he had hit LD's at 2017's rate.

    Last year Avi was 54-83 on balls hit over 100 mph.  This year 31% of his balls have been hit over 100 mph versus 28% last year.  So hitting a greater % of his balls over 100 mph accounts for his greater success, no doubt.   Don't have time to delve into his 100 mph+ BA this year.  That is time-consuming.  It may or may not be greater than last year.  I do know, however, he's had a much greater than expected BA on below  95 mph groundballs, and that's usually good luck playing a role.

    So it's like I've been saying all along, Avi's hitting better as a combination of skill and some luck this year, but skill is the primary driver.
    The simple ISO stat is the key one.   Last year 27 of Avi's 32 extra base hits came off balls hit 100 mph or more.   So ISO is an excellent proxy for seeing how well a guy is squaring up on the ball.  You don't get bloop HR's or many cheapie doubles.  ISO is THE stat that tells all for Avi.
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: 2 HR for Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:36 am

    So it's like I've been saying all along, Avi's hitting better as a combination of skill and some luck this year, but skill is the primary driver.


    -******************


    You're also the one that start all the lucky hit bullshit.  So stop acting like your the voice of reason.


    And thanks for pointing out that its important to hit the ball hard.  Nobody on this board would have figured that one out if not for you and your stats
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    rmapasad
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    Re: 2 HR for Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:53 am

    You're also the one that start all the lucky hit bullshit.  So stop acting like your the voice of reason.
    And thanks for pointing out that its important to hit the ball hard.  Nobody on this board would have figured that one out if not for you and your stats

    And you are the voice of reason ?   LMAO.... 
    Garcia has .333 BA on groundballs v. .237 career groundball BA prior to this year. If he had his career GB rate this year he'd be hitting 275/318/473 instead of his current 313/356/511.  That's a 77 pt. OPS difference which is significant.
    Not saying he should be hitting .237 on grounders anymore since he's hitting a greater % of all balls harder, including grounders.  But drilling down, I see that the big difference is better luck on the below 95 mph non-hard GB's.  That probably won't hold up over time.

    So in deciding whether to give Garcia a contract extension only a fool would base an extension on numbers that are inflated by a .300 + GB BA. That's all I'm saying. 

    Garcia has improved. He isn't the high 600's/low 700's guy anymore.  But stripping away the GB luck this year, he's more of a high 700's/low 800's guy.  Base any extension on that, not on him being a mid-high 800's Stud, unless he pumps his ISO into the low-mid 200's and does a better job of drawing BB's and improving his OBP.

    Of course, it's no secret how hitting the ball hard = success.  However, until looking at the actual numbers of Garcia's 100 mph+ balls, I was not aware just exactly how big the exit velocity factor was in a guy's success.  It's huge.
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    Hawk Harrelson
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    Re: 2 HR for Garcia

    Post by Hawk Harrelson on Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:02 pm

    I love to watch paint dry.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: 2 HR for Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:18 pm

    Hawk Harrelson wrote:I love to watch paint dry.

    Simple question: do Sox offer Garcia a 4-5 year "team-friendly" extension at $ 55-65 million ?
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: 2 HR for Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:39 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Hawk Harrelson wrote:I love to watch paint dry.

    Simple question: do Sox offer Garcia a 4-5 year "team-friendly" extension at $ 55-65 million ?


    In other words, sign him for 2018 & 2019 plus his first two years of free agency 2020,2021 and see if you can get away with an option 2023, otherwise guarentee it.


    I would say yes.  Your outfield super prospects are all at A-ball and just 20 years old each.  Hopefully they are ready by 2020.  Can't see that much sooner.  And that's assuming they are as good as advertised.  But in the mean time you need somebody to play the games.


    The other thing to remember is that most of your top pitching prospects are at AAA.  Lopez and Giolito are almost certain to start the 2018 season for OUR White Sox.  Kopech is 50/50. Fulmer might need some more seasoning or turned into a reliever.  Anyway, you don't want to sabotage the kid pitchers by playing crap behind them.


    Finally, Garcia is well known for his heart and his hustle.  You need those intangibles in the clubhouse.  You need to keep your positive leaders in the clubhouse.  You don't throw them away because of hysterical over analysis for their splits
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: 2 HR for Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:47 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    You're also the one that start all the lucky hit bullshit.  So stop acting like your the voice of reason.
    And thanks for pointing out that its important to hit the ball hard.  Nobody on this board would have figured that one out if not for you and your stats

    And you are the voice of reason ? 

    1/2 the time yes.  1/2 the time i'm here to rant and rave


      LMAO....
     
    Garcia has .333 BA on groundballs v. .237 career groundball BA prior to this year. If he had his career GB rate this year he'd be hitting 275/318/473 instead of his current 313/356/511.  That's a 77 pt. OPS difference which is significant.
    Not saying he should be hitting .237 on grounders anymore since he's hitting a greater % of all balls harder, including grounders.  But drilling down, I see that the big difference is better luck on the below 95 mph non-hard GB's.  That probably won't hold up over time.

    So in deciding whether to give Garcia a contract extension only a fool would base an extension on numbers that are inflated by a .300 + GB BA. That's all I'm saying. 

    And all I'm saying is your conclusion is wrong because its based on a false premise and bad math

    Garcia has improved. He isn't the high 600's/low 700's guy anymore.  But stripping away the GB luck this year,

    You haven't a clue what is luck and what isn't  so quit acting like an arrogant know it all

    he's more of a high 700's/low 800's guy.  Base any extension on that, not on him being a mid-high 800's Stud, unless he pumps his ISO into the low-mid 200's and does a better job of drawing BB's and improving his OBP.


    Of course, it's no secret how hitting the ball hard = success.  However, until looking at the actual numbers of Garcia's 100 mph+ balls, I was not aware just exactly how big the exit velocity factor was in a guy's success.  It's huge.

    There you go posting out of both sides of your keyboard again.


    first he is worth the gamble, then he's a lucky SOB, then he's for real. but still way too lucky, now he's hitting the ball hard enough to be real, but too many of those hits are still on the ground blah blah blah


    And you claim half a season isn't long enough but last week you were spazzing about his 9 for 16 groundball clip.


    You are the most full of shit person in the history of this board
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: 2 HR for Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:50 pm

    Hawk Harrelson wrote:I love to watch paint dry.


    I love to have the game explained to me like I'm 7 and I'm watching Dick Allen live for the first time.
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    Soxillinirob
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    Re: 2 HR for Garcia

    Post by Soxillinirob on Wed Jul 19, 2017 1:39 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:

    You are the most full of shit person in the history of this board

    How dare you!  I own that title.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: 2 HR for Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Jul 19, 2017 2:59 pm

    And all I'm saying is your conclusion is wrong because its based on a false premise and bad mathYour rote accusations of \"false premise" and "Bad math" are totally meaningless because you never deal with the facts.  A guy who's hit .237 on 500 groundballs suddenly hits .333 on them in 2017.   We know that some % of that is due to more hard GB's, but Statcast data shows most of that improvement comes from GB's under 95 mph where batters typically hit in the high 100's.   All I'm saying is that NOBODY IN THEIR RIGHT MIND should pay Garcia big bucks over the next 3-4 years based on his 2017 BA which won't hold up in the years ahead.   Unless of course they believe that he's suddenly developed Ricky Henderson's ability to beat out slow infield grounders.    You haven't a clue what is luck and what isn't  so quit acting like an arrogant know it allBalls put into the field of play are subject to random luck which causes year to year fluctuations in BA.   There have been dozens of studies on this subject.  You obviously haven't read even one paragraph of any of them. wrote:
    There you go posting out of both sides of your keyboard again.  first he is worth the gamble, then he's a lucky SOB, then he's for real. but still way too lucky, now he's hitting the ball hard enough to be real, but too many of those hits are still on the ground blah blah blah And you claim half a season isn't long enough but last week you were spazzing about his 9 for 16 groundball clip. You are the most full of shit person in the history of this board
    No, I will say without reservation that you are the undisputed champ of full-of-shitness. 

    Talk about flip-flopping.  First Garcia was a hopeless stiff not even worth gambling $ 3 mil on.  Then after 2 months suddenly he's worth a long-term contract in the tens of millions. 
    I've been consistent about Garcia ever since January.  If you'd get over this over-simplified stuff of "you're either for or against' Garcia, and think with a bit more complexity, you'd see this isn't just black or white.

    I believed in January that Garcia could be a SURVIVOR if he had a mid-20's power breakout.  He's had that and has cut down on K's plus his defense has improved a bit too.   But he's also had fewer BB's and his groundball BA has pushed his overall BA (and OPS) higher than it's likely to be in 2018- beyond.  While I see him as a decent enough 770-800 OPS guy in the future, the underlying trends don't
    point to him as a 850+ stud.  Given that, of course he should return in 2018 but Sox need to be realistic and not get carried away in any long-term financial commitment to him.  Negotiate an arb salary for him in 2018, and then revisit the long-term deal idea a year from now.
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    Mr Modelo
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    Re: 2 HR for Garcia

    Post by Mr Modelo on Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:10 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    And you are the voice of reason ? 

    Deplorable Mark wrote:

    1/2 the time yes.  1/2 the time i'm here to rant and rave





    Deplorable Mark, are you admitting you are a halfwit?

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