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    Deplorable Mark
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    2020

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:01 pm

    Looks like 2020 is the target.


    A third of the projected 2020 lineup are in A-ball or rookie:
    C - Collins - A+
    2B - Moncada - AAA
    LF - Jimenez - A+
    CF - Roberts - Rookie


    Matt Davidson is under control thru 2022 and Tim Anderson is under control thru 2024.  The 2017 first round pick, Jake Burger, backs up Davidson.  All the shortstop eggs appear to be in the Anderson basket.


    That leaves RF and 1B.  Both Garcia and Abreau are scheduled for free agency after the 2019 season.  Garcia, who just turned 26, has finally justified Kenny Williams belief in him.  I would expect a long term deal to get done this winter.  He is young enough and good enough to justify a 5 to 7 year deal.  White Sox have quite a few OF prospects in A ball.  I would hope at least one would be ready in case Garcia bolts.


    Abreau is trickier.  Given the number of Cubans the White Sox tend to sign, he might be worth keeping as an ambassador.  Plus he can DH.  So basically the White Sox still need to find that big lefthanded power bat to play 1B.


    Ignoring DH, half the team is in place now.  Moncada should be up by Opening Day 2018.  So the White Sox will need some filler at Catcher and the OF until the blue chips are ready.  Guys like Wily Garcia and Charlie Tilson can cover the OF until they prove they can't.  A real catcher needs to be found.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: 2020

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:38 pm

    All the shortstop eggs appear to be in the Anderson basket. >>
    Sox got too carried away with Anderson and pre-maturely gave him that extension.  But he still has talent despite his miserable 2017 season.  If Anderson is still mired in the bottom 1/4 of shortstops by this time next year, then Sox need to then think about a Plan for Shortstop.

    Matt Davidson is under control thru 2022 and Tim Anderson is under control thru 2024.  The 2017 first round pick, Jake Burger, backs up Davidson. >>
    Davidson is a whiff machine with suspect defense. Burger conceivably could be ready by late 2019 or early 2020 and could be the real deal.

    Garcia, who just turned 26, has finally justified Kenny Williams belief in him.  I would expect a long term deal to get done this winter.  He is young enough and good enough to justify a 5 to 7 year deal.  White Sox have quite a few OF prospects in A ball.  I would hope at least one would be ready in case Garcia bolts.>

    Over these past 10 weeks all Garcia has justified is that he deserved a shot this year and deserves another one next year.  But 10 good weeks, some of which were based on lucky singles, does not make him a long-term bet YET.  f he's proving himself again by this time next year, then talk  about longterm contract. To do so any earlier than that would be foolish.


    .  So basically the White Sox still need to find that big lefthanded power bat to play 1B.>
    White Sox need to find LHed bats, period.  This team is nothing but RHed bats (Jiminez is also) which is why the Sox are 1st in majors v. LHed pitchers but 20th v. RHers.  Unfortunately 2/3 of all pitchers are RHed.

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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: 2020

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:02 pm

    some of which were based on lucky singles


    ***************************************


    YOU JUST CAN'T LET IT GO CAN YOU
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    rmapasad
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    Re: 2020

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:16 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:some of which were based on lucky singles


    ***************************************


    YOU JUST CAN'T LET IT GO CAN YOU


    Reality is that some portion of Garcia's 2017 value is based on a .328 groundball Bat Avg. which
    no way in hell he will maintain going forward.   Teams should not base long-term deals on what
    happens over 300 PA's and it's because of anamolies such as that.
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: 2020

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:03 pm

    LMAO

    Let's gamble on Garcia in case we get lucky, now since we got too lucky, better dump Garcia before the luck runs out

    LOL

    Hey, how many unlucky outs did Garcia hit into?

    Your analysis is as useful as half a phone number

    In case you haven't noticed, it's nagging injuries that have been plaguing Avi.  Not your bad math
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: 2020

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Jul 13, 2017 10:28 pm

    Just checked the splits

    Avi is now batting 280 on flyballs and 650 on liners.  So Garcia's drop in average has been on balls hit in the air, not the ground

    Once again, Roger's stats fall like a house of cards when double checked.

    BTW, still waiting for one of those imaginary PhD's to explain way hits on the ground are lucky but hits in the air are the real thing.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: 2020

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:09 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Just checked the splits

    Avi is now batting 280 on flyballs and 650 on liners.  So Garcia's drop in average has been on balls hit in the air, not the ground

    Once again, Roger's stats fall like a house of cards when double checked.

    BTW, still waiting for one of those imaginary PhD's to explain way hits on the ground are lucky but hits in the air are the real thing.

    The only "house of cards" is your poor command of the facts and concepts.
     
    Early on Avi's GB avg. it was in the .380's.  Then it went down.  But it spiked back up in early June after he went an unbelievable 9-16 on groundballs.   Since June 16th, however, he's only been 5 -27 on grounders (.185).  Thus his yearly .328 GB BA.

    REAL fact-checking would show that his dip in GB BA is a very big factor in his recent slump .  His LD BA since mid-June is .600. About par for course.  He's 2-15 on flyballs (.133) since mid-June and that's been a factor too.   But his flyball problem has been going on since mid- May.

    It's the reason that any talk of a long-term extension right now is fucking insane.  As the year has gone along, his FB distances are getting shorter and it shows in his power numbers:


    April - 1029 OPS  253 ISO
    May  - 831  OPS   184 ISO
    June - 784  OPS   151 ISO

    His solution was and still is MORE POWER.   Piddling around at 140-160 ISO levels is the OLD Avi Garcia.  He needs to lift it back into 200+ territory..  He doesn't walk enough nor play good enough defense to have a 150 ISO. 
    I'm basically hoping for a .270/.330/.450 second half.  That would still make him a decent enough RFer.
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: 2020

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:26 am

    Roger first writes

    The only "house of cards" is your poor command of the facts and concepts.


    then he writes


    As the year has gone along, his FB distances are getting shorter and it shows in his power numbers:


    which confirms what I wrote which was


    Avi is now batting 280 on flyballs and 650 on liners.  What I didn't write was that the last time I checked, his flyball average was about the same as his groundball average.  And that his line drive average was well over 700.



    Whichs leads to what Roger wrote in the middle


    His LD BA since mid-June is .600. About par for course.



    Notice how roger completely ignores a roughly 100 drop in average for line drives.  and he claims THE KARK has poor command


    Roger is the one that concocted this assinine theory about groundballs by butchering the sabermetiric research of others.  He has yet to explain why groundballs are lucky, but balls in the air aren't.  He has yet to explain why he is completely ignoring unlucky outs.  He consistantly tries to draw conclusions on a weeks worth of at bats.  the becomes completely beligerent when you try to crorrect his bad math and illogic


    Heck, 2 days ago Mr "I know everything about baseball" was claiming the White Sox would be hard pressed to find a LF better than the immortal Yolmer Sanchez.  Guess it never dawned on Mr "i'm never wrong" that Quintana was worth a hell of a lot more than he thought.


    How long before he starts insisting Moncada move to RF, keep Sanchez as full time 2B, and the White Sox dump Avi Garcia before the rest of the league figure out he is the fluke of the decade.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: 2020

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:05 pm

    Notice how roger completely ignores a roughly 100 drop in average for line drives.  and he claims THE KARK has poor command >>
    His LD pct. since mid - June is based on such a small sample (10 line drives) that "100 pt drop" is insignificant - 1 stinking LD hit or not.   You've been complaining about small samples, so this is no time to suddenly talk about 1 hit that affects (100 pts) being something worth commenting on.

    Roger is the one that concocted this assinine theory about groundballs by butchering the sabermetiric research of others.  He has yet to explain why groundballs are lucky, but balls in the air aren't.  He has yet to explain why he is completely ignoring unlucky outs.  He consistantly tries to draw conclusions on a weeks worth of at bats.  the becomes completely beligerent when you try to crorrect his bad math and illogic.
    LMAO, since you've never (or barely) read the sabermetric research on batted balls and BABIP theory, how the hell can you comment on whether I am butchering it or not ?
    Here's the deal MOST FB hits are HR's so most FB hits aren't "lucky". In Avi's case 11 of his 14 FB hits are HR's.  However, he's been unlucky by being 3 -39 on non-HR flyballs... If he were league avg. .120 on non-HR flyballs he'd be 5-39 ... So he probably deserves 2 more FB hits than he's had. 
    Line drives aren't lucky hits for the most part since the league average is .640 for those.  Avi is right at that level.. On average, 25% of all BIPs are LD's.  but Avi's 27% LD rate this year gives him 6 more hits from "non=lucky" extra line drives.
    Groundballs are at a league average rate of .243 BA.  Avi is at .320.  Let's stop for a minute though.
    Groundballs hit at 95+ mph carry a .411 league BA, and they are 28% of all GBs
    Groundballs hit at 94 mph or less have a .175 BA 
    Avi has hit a league average 29% of his groundballs hard and has a near-league avg. .415 on them
    However, he is .291 BA on softer GB's v. league .175. Meaning he has gotten 10 extra GB hits largely on luck.  Statcast is even worse.  They say he should have only hit .151 on them.
    So let's tote it up - robbed of 2 FB hits that he should have had but the beneficiary of 10 GB hits that he probably shouldn't have had.  Subtract 8 hits from his total and instead of .310 he's hitting .283
    Put in his other numbers and he's .283/.326/.470  or .796 OPS.. That's the REAL non-lucky Avi.

    H<How long before he starts insisting Moncada move to RF, keep Sanchez as full time 2B, and the White Sox dump Avi Garcia before the rest of the league figure out he is the fluke of the decade.>>
    Jiminez is hitting .270 in A ball right now. Probably won't be ready until at least 2019 and more likely 2020 before he's a real impact player.  Avi Garcia is only under control through 2019.
    So who knows where Jiminez's ultimate destination is. 
    I am now saying the same thing about Sanchez that I was saying about Garcia before the season - no reason to discard the guy or put him on the bench with a 730 OPS.  See how decent he will be the rest of this season.  If he keeps it in the 720-750 range with good defense, that is more than a utility player. But we'll see.

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