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    Avi Garcia

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    rmapasad
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:09 pm

    Sanchez is one of the top 10 defensive 2bman in majors this year and at 728 OPS, his bat has been OK.. Yeah, he he could hit .240 or worse again.   But he also could be a 2-3 WAR 2bman if he keeps his OPS in the 720-770 range which is not a total pipedream.

    Sanchez' defensive value plus OK offense means Sox get 2-3 wins from him at 2b and Moncada in LF, than Moncada at 2b and 0 WAR scrub in LF.  2-3 wins could be important in a tight playoff race.  Nothing sacred about keeping Moncada at 2b.  Red Sox shifted him from 2b to 3b because that's where he was needed last year.  That's what WINNING franchises do -maximize their resources.

    Agree in theory Sox should be able to find an OFer who could hit better than Sanchez.
    But then there's reality.  If their LF defense is shitty (like Melky), it sucks away all the offensive value.  Wily Garcia is so-so defensively and hits no better than Sanchez.   Luis Robert is only 19 and won't be ready for a while,   Fisher can't crack an 800 OPS in low A and he's 23 years old.  Looks like the next Jacob May.   Micker Adolfo is a long way off in low A. 

    As far as free agency, that's no real answer.  Every free agent OFer in 2019 will be at least 30 years old, and looking to get grossly overpaid like Melky was.  There is one notable exception though - a late 20's Bryce Harper.    Yes, if the Sox could get him, that would be worth keeping Moncada at 2b.   But conservatively the estimates are running at $ 300 + million over 10 years .
    Do you see the Sox doing that  ?
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    alohafri
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by alohafri on Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:25 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    rmapasad wrote:
    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    1- Sanchez is a plus defender and baserunner. At this pace, he'd be 2.5 WAR on the year.
    2- Melky, due to defense, is on pace for less than 1 WAR for the year.
    3- Sox really don't have a LFer in the system who looks any better than Melky 
    So to have a 2.5 WAR at 2b with Sanchez and a 4 WAR in LF with Moncada  would be better than a 4 WAR with Moncada at 2b and someone with 1 WAR or worse in Left Field

    Put it another way.  You don't gain a big advantage replacing a 2 WAR 2bman like Sanchez with a 4-5 WAR 2bman (Moncada). But you do gain a big edge replacing a 0-1 WAR LFer (like Wily Garcia or Adam Engel who's really a CFer) with a 4-5 WAR guy like Moncada.  Moncada has got good foot speed too, which means he should be able to cover ground in the outfield. 


    This is a false choice.  As well as a short site choice.


    Moncada needs to be, at minimum, a 10 year fixture in the White Sox lineup.  He needs to play where HIS value is maximized.  Meaning, he plays 2B if that truly is his best position.


    Moving Moncada to the outfield under the theory that you can't find 3 outfielders better than Yolmer Sanchez is rather silly.  Now maybe Sanchez is having a better 2017 than OUR White Sox 3rd best OF, but that doesn't justify the move.  The White Sox are much better gambling on Garcia part 2 in 2018.  If that bombs, then you have guys like Fisher or Call or my new favorite Adolfo that may be ready by 2019 or 2020.  Then there is always trades and free agency.  Bottom line, if you can't find 3 OF better than Yolmer, you probably ain't contending anyway, so why bother trying to win 82 games instead of 79?


    The only way this move would make senses is if
    A) Moncada is not that good at 2B and would be better off in the OF
    B) I am completely underrating Yolmer Sanchez long term offensive potential

    I agree. If Moncada can hold his own as a defensive second baseman, why ruin that by moving him to the outfield? If you want an outfielder, find a damn outfielder!
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Jul 06, 2017 4:37 pm

    Agree in theory Sox should be able to find an OFer who could hit better than Sanchez.
    But then there's reality. 



    ********************************************


    Excuse me, but your reality appears to be limited to the 2017 season.  And maybe the 2018 as well.


    Clearly OUR White Sox aren't contending in 2017.  As for 2018, I don't see anybody else jumping on that bandwagon other than the KARK in RAH RAH mode.


    As for what will be available in 2019, who's to say?  And will 2019 be the year the White Sox return to contention?  Again who's to say.


    But Moncada looks to be something very special.  Why screw with that?  Again, your logic is very short sited.  Plus your Boston analogy is off base.  The Red Sox actually contend.  And I think Dustin Pedroia is considered a wee bit better than Yolmer Sanchez.


    Besdies, I must be making sense if Kevin is agreeing with me  Razz
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Jul 06, 2017 4:42 pm

    alohafri wrote:
    I agree. If Moncada can hold his own as a defensive second baseman, why ruin that by moving him to the outfield? If you want an outfielder, find a damn outfielder!

    I don't think Moncada would be hurt by moving spots.  Red Sox had no problems doing it when they moved him to 3b.  They had Pedrioa at 2b , so Moncada wasn't needed at that spot. 
    I think his physical profile would also fit the OF very well -
    6' 2", 205 and good speed.  Imagine his arm is decent or Red Sox wouldn't have put him at 3b.

    White Sox didn't have a Pedroia so clear why they returned Moncada return to 2b. But 
    Sanchez has improved  and right now he's the 4th best position player on the Sox.
    Doesn't it make more sense for Moncada to bump the 9th best player (Wily Garcia) out of a job than the 4th best player ?  Sanchez is better defensively at 2b than Moncada (who has been error prone) and so Moncada is not really a big shot in the arm if he puts Sanchez on the bench and Sox have the likes of Wily Garcia starting in LF.

    As to finding another OFer, don't think it will be that easy.  Here is the list of free agent OFers coming available after 2018.  Most are old, and the good ones will be VERY expensive. Will Sox
    open the wallet for Bryce Harper or Adam Jones ?  If not, then it's the next Melky Cabrera.

    Left Fielders
    Nori Aoki (37)
    Brett Gardner (35) — $12.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout
    Brandon Guyer (33) — $3MM club option with a $250K buyout
    Brandon Moss (35) — $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
    Gerardo Parra (32) — $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
    Shane Robinson (34)

    Center Fielders
    Charlie Blackmon (32)
    Adam Jones (33)
    Leonys Martin (31)
    A.J. Pollock (31)
    Denard Span (35) – $12MM mutual option with a $4MM buyout

    Right Fielders
    Jose Bautista (38) — $20MM vesting option
    Lonnie Chisenhall (30)
    Brandon Guyer (33) — $3MM club option with a $250K buyout
    Bryce Harper (26)
    Jason Heyward (29) — can opt out of remaining five years and $106MM
    Matt Joyce (34)
    Nick Markakis (35)
    Hunter Pence (36)
    Yasmany Tomas (28) — can opt out of remaining two years and $32.5MM
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Jul 06, 2017 8:21 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:But Moncada looks to be something very special.  Why screw with that?  Again, your logic is very short sited.  Plus your Boston analogy is off base.  The Red Sox actually contend.  And I think Dustin Pedroia is considered a wee bit better than Yolmer Sanchez.

    Why would a position change would screw up Moncada ? IMO, it could do the exact opposite and make him an even more valuable player because his physical skills may be better suited to the OF than 2b.   This was the case when Alfonso Soriano moved from 2b to LF.  His poor hands made him a subpar defensive 2bman but when he moved to LF his defense was well above average due to his speed in tracking down balls.  Moncada has similar "tools" to what Soriano had - speed, power.  Moncada's hands may also be a question mark as his error totals are fairly high.
    Yes, Sanchez looked like he was playing himself out of the majors with his poor hitting last year, but he's redeemed himself some this season and his 760 career AAA OPS shows he may not be a complete bust offensively if he matures and gains more power in his mid-late 20's.   Plus, he's always been a strong defensive 2bman, probably better than Moncada will ever be.  
    If Moncada goes to LF, which he has the bat for, his defense could turn him from a 4 WAR player at 2b to a 5 WAR in LF. 
    LF has been a thorn in the Sox's side for years now, and it will continue to be a thorn unless they get creative.
    THERE ARE NO LF FREE AGENTS WORTH SIGNING IN THE NEXT 2 YEARS and SOX HAVE NO ONE IN THE SYSTEM....
    TIME TO THINK  OUT OF THE BOX
    Very Happy
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri Jul 07, 2017 9:04 am

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:But Moncada looks to be something very special.  Why screw with that?  Again, your logic is very short sited.  Plus your Boston analogy is off base.  The Red Sox actually contend.  And I think Dustin Pedroia is considered a wee bit better than Yolmer Sanchez.

    Why would a position change would screw up Moncada ? IMO, it could do the exact opposite and make him an even more valuable player because his physical skills may be better suited to the OF than 2b.   This was the case when Alfonso Soriano moved from 2b to LF.  His poor hands made him a subpar defensive 2bman but when he moved to LF his defense was well above average due to his speed in tracking down balls.  Moncada has similar "tools" to what Soriano had - speed, power.  Moncada's hands may also be a question mark as his error totals are fairly high.
    Yes, Sanchez looked like he was playing himself out of the majors with his poor hitting last year, but he's redeemed himself some this season and his 760 career AAA OPS shows he may not be a complete bust offensively if he matures and gains more power in his mid-late 20's.   Plus, he's always been a strong defensive 2bman, probably better than Moncada will ever be.  
    If Moncada goes to LF, which he has the bat for, his defense could turn him from a 4 WAR player at 2b to a 5 WAR in LF. 
    LF has been a thorn in the Sox's side for years now, and it will continue to be a thorn unless they get creative.
    THERE ARE NO LF FREE AGENTS WORTH SIGNING IN THE NEXT 2 YEARS and SOX HAVE NO ONE IN THE SYSTEM....
    TIME TO THINK  OUT OF THE BOX
    Very Happy

    If Moncada plays 2B like Alfonso, then I totally agree.  But is that really the case?  I though I heard the HAWK raving about his defense Razz  


    As for Sanchez, if he can be a perennial gold glove candidate with an OPS in the neighborhood of 750, then that puts him in the fight.  But I think you are shortchanging guys like Wily Garcia and ignoring what the White Sox can get in a trade.


     But what I really find frustrating is WHAT IS YOUR POINT?
    A) Yolmer Sanchez is a lot better than must of us think, which does have some merit
    B) the White Sox are incapable of finding an LF better than Sanchez, which if true probably means the White Sox ain't winning anyway.


    So back to my first line in this rebuttal.  How does Moncada truly rate defensively at 2B?
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:50 pm


    If Moncada plays 2B like Alfonso, then I totally agree.  But is that really the case?  I though I heard the HAWK raving about his defense Razz 
    As for Sanchez, if he can be a perennial gold glove candidate with an OPS in the neighborhood of 750, then that puts him in the fight.  But I think you are shortchanging guys like Wily Garcia and ignoring what the White Sox can get in a trade.
     But what I really find frustrating is WHAT IS YOUR POINT?
    A) Yolmer Sanchez is a lot better than must of us think, which does have some merit
    B) the White Sox are incapable of finding an LF better than Sanchez, which if true probably means the White Sox ain't winning anyway.
    So back to my first line in this rebuttal.  How does Moncada truly rate defensively at 2B?

    Agree if Sanchez slips back to the way he hit his first three years in majors, all bets are off.
    Same could be said about Avi, Leury and Davidson who also appear to be "breakouts" this year.

    Sanchez had a 769 OPS over his last three years in AAA, and now that he's in his 4th year in majors theoretically he should only be 50 OPS pts behind his AAA levels. Sanchez's current 728 seems to fit that general principle so he might be able to hold in that range longer term.

    Don't you want your most valuable guys playing the most?  Sanchez is more valuable than Wily Garcia and if that remains don't you want Sanchez getting 650 PA's and not Wily Garcia ?
    Unfortunately Wily (or someone equally bad) gets the 650 PA's if the club insists every player has to "stay in his lane" (i.e, play the position he's always played).
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri Jul 07, 2017 3:08 pm

    Don't you want your most valuable guys playing the most? 


    WOULD YOU WANT TO DATE THE SKINNIEST GIRL ON A FAT FARM, OR WOULD YOU RISK LONELINESS AND GO ON THE PROWL SOMEWHERE ELSE?


     Sanchez is more valuable than Wily Garcia


    SANCHEZ IS CURRENTLY HAVING A BETTER 2017, BUT TO SAY HE IS MORE VALUABLE?  I BELIEVE WILY HAVE A MUCH HIGHER UPSIDE.  AND AREN'T YOU THE GUY THAT SUPPOSE TO LOVE THE GARCIA LONGSHOTS?




     and if that remains don't you want Sanchez getting 650 PA's and not Wily Garcia ?

    FALSE CHOICE.  IF BOTH ARE LESS THAN AVERAGE, THEN I WANT NEITHER GETTING 650 AB.

    Unfortunately Wily (or someone equally bad) gets the 650 PA's if the club insists every player has to "stay in his lane" (i.e, play the position he's always played).


    ************************************************


    ??????????


    WHY ARE WE ASSUMING WILY GARCIA NEVER DEVELOPS?  WHY ARE WE ASSUMING MONCADA ISN'T MUCH DEFENSIVELY?  WHY ARE WE ASSUMING OUR CHOICES ARE SO LIMITED?


    PLUS YOUR THE GUY THAT SAID REBUILDING IS FOR LONGSHOTS.  DOES THE REBUILDING STOP NEXT YEAR?  MUCH BETTER TO GAMBLE ON MONCADA AND GARCIA AND GET THE HUGE PAYOFF THEN HEDGE OUR BETS IN A LOSING YEAR ON A DIME A DOZEN TALENT LIKE YOLMER SNACHEZ
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Sat Jul 08, 2017 1:25 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    SANCHEZ IS CURRENTLY HAVING A BETTER 2017, BUT TO SAY HE IS MORE VALUABLE?  I BELIEVE WILY HAVE A MUCH HIGHER UPSIDE.  AND AREN'T YOU THE GUY THAT SUPPOSE TO LOVE THE GARCIA LONGSHOTS?
    WHY ARE WE ASSUMING WILY GARCIA NEVER DEVELOPS?  WHY ARE WE ASSUMING MONCADA ISN'T MUCH DEFENSIVELY?  WHY ARE WE ASSUMING OUR CHOICES ARE SO LIMITED?
    PLUS YOUR THE GUY THAT SAID REBUILDING IS FOR LONGSHOTS.  DOES THE REBUILDING STOP NEXT YEAR?  MUCH BETTER TO GAMBLE ON MONCADA AND GARCIA AND GET THE HUGE PAYOFF THEN HEDGE OUR BETS IN A LOSING YEAR ON A DIME A DOZEN TALENT LIKE YOLMER SNACHEZ

    Because of Sanchez's above avg defense at an important glove spot, Willy would have to out-OPS him by 50-60 pts to just to be of equal value.  Don't see Garcia doing that unless Sanchez falls back into the low-mid 600's, in which case they are both fairly useless then.

    Garcia never put up an 800+ OPS in any meaningful # of PA's in the minors.  Corner OFers have to hit and his minor league career isn't that encouraging. Here's the scouting report on Garcia:

    "Garcia has big tools in the form of plus-plus arm strength and plus raw power, but the reason he falls short of future regular status is his subpar hit tool. He has a powerful swing with a good path for creating power, but his barrel takes a long route to contact, exposing itself early to the pitch by getting away from Garcia’s body early. Combined with his innate contact and plate-discipline issues, the best he can hope for is turning into a powerful platoon bat."

    In fact, Garcia has an 819 OPS v. lefties and a 689 v. righties so far this year.  But with all their RHed bats, Sox don't need a platoon RHed hitter.  Sox are 1st in the majors in BA v. Lefties (.301) but are way down the list on BA v. Righties (.250). Unfortunately 2/3 of all pitchers are RHers which is why the Sox are 20th in majors in overall offense. 

    Willy Garcia has made some strides in plate discipline this year.  But he is not starter-worthy and likely never will be.
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Sat Jul 08, 2017 8:58 pm

    I believe I said the same about another Garcia a few months back

    Plus the choice isn't limited to these two

    No way a sane person throws Moncada into the OF because their afraid they can't find an LF better than Yolmer Sanchez
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Sun Jul 09, 2017 11:42 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:I believe I said the same about another Garcia a few months back

    Plus the choice isn't limited to these two

    No way a sane person throws Moncada into the OF because their afraid they can't find an LF better than Yolmer Sanchez

    Kark, moving Moncada is not some insane proposal.  Sox this year have only 5 players with 1 WAR or more.  Frazier, Abreu, Avi Garcia, Leury Garcia and Sanchez.  Only the two Garcias and Sanchez are under Sox control by 2019.    Davidson is a pleasant surprise but his subpar defense, baserunning, and poor OBP  depress his overall value to near replacement level.  In AAA Moncada and Delmonico are the only prospects with 800 or better OPS's. So IMO, the Sox can't really afford to consider either the two Garcias or Sanchez as throwaways or utility players.
    In fact Sanchez is in the top 1/3 of all major leaguers in WAR.   This is not a bench player unless he proves either the rest of this year or next that he is the old Carlos Sanchez. MOncada is not a big gain at 2b (he's only a 824 OPS in AAA) provided  Sanchez holds his current value. OTOH, Sox could get a major lift if Moncada were to take over 3b since Davidson's flaws are too many.  Or even 1b after Abreu departs, but that would be a waste of Moncada's speed. But OF makes sense because there are no clear alternatives post-Melky.
    Yes,  plenty of LFers can hit better than Sanchez.  Melky is one example. But Melky is also an example of where defense takes his total value below 1 WAR and he is not alone because LF is where teams often try to hide weaker fielders.  There are only 17 LFers now with better WAR's than Sanchez and only a few will be FA's in next two years - Granderson,  Gardner,  JD Martinez, MAybin..   All carry the same Melky-type risk: expensive, 31+ years old and entering their decline phase.  The others like Bellinger are locked up.   Yes, the Sox could trade for one, but who can they offer ? 
    These are all things Hahn has to consider.  You need a core of 5-6 starters who are league average or better to build
    on.  If Sanchez is one of those 5-6 then he should play.
     
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:46 am

    If Moncada D is average at best and Sanchez truly is in the top 1/3 of MLB 2B, the I agree.  In fact, I believe I even suggested it a month ago

    But you seemed determined to move Moncada regardless just to give Sanchez a shot at the expense of riskier prospects with higher ceilings because you act that is the only choice.

    For example, what if the Sox pull off a Candelario/Schwarber deal?  You going to play Sanchez ahead of these 2 and Davidson?  I think not.

    Again, a sane person leaves Moncada at 2B unless he plays himself off it.  A sane person also realizes the beginning of a rebuilding project is when you gamble on long shots.  Not make save win now when you lack the talent to win now

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