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    Avi Garcia

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    rmapasad
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    Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:09 pm

    [color=#0000ff]This from Rotoworld today:
    <<Two of the hits were of the infield variety, while the third was a double. Garcia has shown hints of promise in the past but this is the first extended period of success for him. He is batting .339/.378/.556 with 10 home runs, 37 runs and 48 RBI. His .410 BABIP indicates he has been fortunate to see a lot of bloopers fall in for hits as well as some weakly-struck infield grounders go for knocks like the ones today. Some regression is likely in store. >>>[/color]

    So I guess someone else confirms this theory. It's amazing what's happened. He's repeating his same April good fortune on groundballs again in June. Since June 1st his BA is .480 on his 25 groundballs. On every GB type (hard, medium, soft) his BA exceeds league averages for each velocity range by a bunch. All told the league hits .280 on similar velocities. Granted, these are small samples and you see weirdness on small samples.
    But since Avi has done this a second time, it raises the question of whether some SKILL is involved. Hawk says he's running out GB's hard, and I have seen a couple games where he gets down to 1b pretty quickly. So does that must mean he was loafing on GB's last year and now he's trying ? I also looked at his slow GB's where speed would be a factor in beating them out. On the slowest (65-70 mph) he's 0-3 yet on the 71 and 72 mph, he's 2-2. The "speed" story isn't playing on those.
    As far as hard GB's (over 100 mph), those have a .444 league average, yet Avi is hitting .667 on them in June. No real reason why his BA on them should be higher except
    good fortune. Fielders not positioned to be in front of them.

    Don't know when this luck will change, but it will at some point. I'm not saying he's a phony - MOST of his improvement has been real, hitting the ball harder and longer.
    But barring a major slump in the 2nd half, he's in line to get a big pay raise in 2018 and at least SOME of that will be that Lady Luck has been on his side this year.





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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:19 pm

    BLab blah blah

    Nobody is expecting him to hit 340

    Seems to me that not only do some people have too much time on their hands, they clearly aren't using it to get a better understanding the law of large numbers has on the laws of probability

    If these eggheads want to impress, predict the Avisail's of the world before they happen.  Instead of double talking both sides of the stat line after the fact.  Amazing how all the so-called experts are now predicting Garcia to finish roughly midway between now and 2016.  Don't need a PhD to see how mindlessly robotic that is
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:32 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:BLab blah blah

    Nobody is expecting him to hit 340

    Seems to me that not only do some people have too much time on their hands, they clearly aren't using it to get a better understanding the law of large numbers has on the laws of probability

    If these eggheads want to impress, predict the Avisail's of the world before they happen.  Instead of double talking both sides of the stat line after the fact.  Amazing how all the so-called experts are now predicting Garcia to finish roughly midway between now and 2016.  Don't need a PhD to see how mindlessly robotic that is

    Of course SOME of it boils down to laws of probability. But the reason GM's and Mgrs. use all this Statcast data about ball velocities, spin, angle, etc.. is that helps sort out how much skills v. luck are responsible for certain results. Where in the past it's always been "high or low BABIP's will correct themselves over time". Well, sometimes they do and sometimes they don't, and people want to find out why.
    You can snivel at this moving train of new data all you want, but neither you nor any fellow snivelers are going to slow it down one iota.
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:29 pm

    Nobody is expecting him to hit 340 >>

    Thing is after this latest June GB spree, BA is back to supplying a big chunk of his value.
    Taking his 206 Slug- BA and 40 OBP-BA spreads and applying them to different BA's:
    At .330/.372/.538 = 920 OPS and a real stud currently
    At .290/.330/.495  =  825 and above avg. but no star
    At .260/.300/.466, he's at 766 and a league avg RFer

    I agree that lower K's and added power also help his BA.  He doesn't look like a .245 hitter anymore.  Even if he's ultimately a .260-.280 hitter,  he's at least graduated from stiff status and is now "useful".  Just remains to be seen how useful he'll ultimately be.



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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:29 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:BLab blah blah

    Nobody is expecting him to hit 340

    Seems to me that not only do some people have too much time on their hands, they clearly aren't using it to get a better understanding the law of large numbers has on the laws of probability

    If these eggheads want to impress, predict the Avisail's of the world before they happen.  Instead of double talking both sides of the stat line after the fact.  Amazing how all the so-called experts are now predicting Garcia to finish roughly midway between now and 2016.  Don't need a PhD to see how mindlessly robotic that is

    Of course SOME of it boils down to laws of probability.  But the reason GM's and Mgrs. use all this Statcast data about ball velocities, spin, angle, etc.. is that helps sort out how much skills v. luck are responsible for certain results.  Where in the past it's always been "high or low BABIP's will correct themselves over time".  Well, sometimes they do and sometimes they don't, and people want to find out why.  
    You can snivel at this moving train of new data all you want, but neither you nor any fellow snivelers are going to slow it down one iota.


    Spare me your self righteous bullshit

    Try understanding what I am writing

    A lot of these samples sizes are way too small

    Which is why you often look like a clown trying to project careers of a 2 week streak

    None of your eggheads predicted Avisail and your crazy ass refuses to believe in him because of some lucky groundball bullshit.  

    But go ahead and keep running your what if analysis.  One of them is bound to close and you can claim you knew it all along.
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:31 pm

    LMAO

    Hitting 667 when the league avg is 444

    Completely meaningless

    6/9 instead of 4/9

    Better trade him now b4 the rest of the league catches wind of this.
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:36 pm

    When did sabermetrics become alchemy

    When all this bullshit starts predicting breakouts and collapses with any kind of regularity, then I'll believe. 

    Until then, I will enjoy mocking the person who butchers the work of others will insisting the lead we all see is really gold.
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:40 pm

    Hey Roger

    When are they going to scrap avg/OBP/SLG for real hits/lucky hits/unlucky outs/real outs

    According to you, the finest minds in the world are working on solving this problem.  And you claim the data is there

    Gee, just think if they applied their genius to curing cancer....
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:43 pm

    Would Rod Carew have a career in an age where groundball hits are considered lucky
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:23 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:When did sabermetrics become alchemy

    When all this bullshit starts predicting breakouts and collapses with any kind of regularity, then I'll believe. 

    Until then, I will enjoy mocking the person who butchers the work of others will insisting the lead we all see is really gold.


    We know you have no abilities for predicting breakouts, so go ahead and mock all you want.  
    Your mocking is as meaningful as your pre-season analysis of Chris Carter, Avi Garcia, Doug Fister , etc.  
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:37 am

    at least I can admit I'm wrong about Garcia.


    Thank God the White Sox also look at the players tools and character.


    Maybe you should direct you smug attitudes towards the idiot that wants to trade Garcia this July
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by alohafri on Thu Jun 29, 2017 12:26 pm

    The knee bug appears to have bitten the Avi Express.
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:02 pm

    alohafri wrote:The knee bug appears to have bitten the Avi Express.


    The opposing pitcher bug was also starting to derail him a bit as of late.  He's hit .220 in his last 50 ab's. 
    We'll see how he responds with a little rest.  Hopefully he's more like the Avi of the first 10 weeks of this season than the Avi of the previous 3 years.
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri Jun 30, 2017 8:12 am

    50 whole at bats!!!!


    again, nobody thought Garcia turned into Ted Williams.  Every fan on this board understands that you'll have people with batting averages thru the roof in April and May only to see them normalize by year end.  This idea that 2017 is nothing but a bunch of lucky groundballs and that 245 Avi will return any day now is pure silliness.   


    And again, the KARK finds it infuriating that some people claimed all winter that Garcia needed to be kept in case they get lucky are now spending the summer claiming the luck will run out any day now.
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Jun 30, 2017 6:16 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:50 whole at bats!!!!


    again, nobody thought Garcia turned into Ted Williams.  Every fan on this board understands that you'll have people with batting averages thru the roof in April and May only to see them normalize by year end.  This idea that 2017 is nothing but a bunch of lucky groundballs and that 245 Avi will return any day now is pure silliness.   


    And again, the KARK finds it infuriating that some people claimed all winter that Garcia needed to be kept in case they get lucky are now spending the summer claiming the luck will run out any day now.

    Infuriating ?  It's of your own making. 

    Didn't say (or even imply) that 2017 is "nothing but a bunch of lucky groundballs"  only  SOME of it.  Yes, he's made some real progress in cutting down K's and increasing power, which means he's not a bust or a stiff .   But he's not the stud Hawk Harrelson is making him out to be.  His BA is still supplying a good chunk of his value and it's artificially high and will come down further.    I'm not predicting he'll fall back to the "old Avi" but that part of him hasn't completely disappeared either.
    I see him finishing the year low 800's, which is progress but not All Star material. 








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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Jul 03, 2017 8:47 am

    Excuse me, but didn't a do a study a week or 3 ago showing that an 825 OPS in 2016 would put you in the top 60 of MLB hitters?  Meaning on average you'd be the 2nd best player on an average team?


    800 OPS isn't progress, its arriving.  And yes, Avi Garcia is All Star material.


    And since I have to be insulting when I'm pig biting mad here it is:  It always seemed to be that you numbers type have had a problem with scale and scope.  Meaning that you people are so obsessed with extremes, who forget how extremely valuable being a true 10% better than average really is.  I suspect this is caused by how you people constantly forget that baseball talent at the MLB level is NOT normally distributed.  Instead its something like the 1/2 of 1 millionth of a percent of the far right tip.  So there!  Put that in your calculator of Garcia hatred and realize the HAWK is closer to the truth than you are.


    PS, Happy Independence Day
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Jul 04, 2017 12:11 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Excuse me, but didn't a do a study a week or 3 ago showing that an 825 OPS in 2016 would put you in the top 60 of MLB hitters?  Meaning on average you'd be the 2nd best player on an average team?


    800 OPS isn't progress, its arriving.  And yes, Avi Garcia is All Star material.


    And since I have to be insulting when I'm pig biting mad here it is:  It always seemed to be that you numbers type have had a problem with scale and scope.  Meaning that you people are so obsessed with extremes, who forget how extremely valuable being a true 10% better than average really is.  I suspect this is caused by how you people constantly forget that baseball talent at the MLB level is NOT normally distributed.  Instead its something like the 1/2 of 1 millionth of a percent of the far right tip.  So there!  Put that in your calculator of Garcia hatred and realize the HAWK is closer to the truth than you are.


    PS, Happy Independence Day

    OK, Avi has been a pleasant surprise..  Just climbing out of the basement of stiffdom to become a decent player, IMO, was going to be enough to justify giving him this final shot in 2017 and he's justified that... But why go down the Hawk Harrelson path of over-hyping based on a few months of good performance ? Seems like the Sox are so starved for offensive heroes lately that they typically seize on 2-3 months of good hitting to proclaim the guy has "arrived" or is the "solution".  Did that with Beckham, Tank, Gillaspie, Abreu, etc. and what did it turn out to be ? Premature ejaculation.

    Avi, despite his fine season so far, is still only the 5th best RFer in the AL.  His defense remains belowaverage. While his power has definitely improved he ranks 17th in the majors among all RFers in HR's.  So much for him being an "All Star".  He was sensational for one month, and average to slightly above average the other two.  That's progress and cause to be happy, particularly since he's making a mere $3 mil per and probably won't get more than $6 mil in arb next year.  That's a bargain even if he's no  more than a league average RFer in 2018.
    I'd like to see him sustain not only in the 2nd half of this year, but next year too before proclaiming that he is this or that.  Salvaging a few survivors from the 2017 trainwreck is cause for celebration.  Avi doesn't need to be an All Star.   As Bill James said, average players are valuable too.  Right now I'm hoping that is what Avi will be as time goes on.  Anything more will be icing on the cake.
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Jul 04, 2017 7:25 am

    Why act like the HAWK?!?!!

    Because it's fun and it's free

    Plus what is done with Avi is not up to me, so I can be as silly or as serious as the mood strikes me

    Besides, somebody her has to provide a reasonable alternative to what you claims the stats are saying

    That said, ideally OUR White Sox wait a year b4 the extension.
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Jul 04, 2017 11:09 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Why act like the HAWK?!?!!

    Because it's fun and it's free

    Plus what is done with Avi is not up to me, so I can be as silly or as serious as the mood strikes me

    Besides, somebody her has to provide a reasonable alternative to what you claims the stats are saying

    That said, ideally OUR White Sox wait a year b4 the extension.

    Stats say different things, depending on which ones you use. As a traditionalist, Hawk probably is focusing on Bat Avg.   Avi is 11th in the majors in that category and that makes him look like an All Star.    Other "All Stars" based on BA this year would be guys like Tim Beckham (no relationship to Gordo), Ben Gamel, Zach Cozart, Corey Dickerson, and Trey Mancini.  Never heard of them ?  Not saying they're total phonies or Avi is either, but they aren't as good as their current BA is making them look right now.  Especially when we're talking about only 300 plate appearances.. 

    No question Avi needs to prove it again in 2018 before signing him up to that 4 year, $ 60 million "team-friendly" extension. 
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Jul 04, 2017 1:31 pm

    I wonder how Garcia would do in LF?  

    Hard to check on an iPhone, but I suspect he improves defensively but rates lower than other LF offensively.  However, depending on who takes over in RF,  the offense can be a wash while the OF defense can improve in real terms
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Jul 05, 2017 1:03 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:I wonder how Garcia would do in LF?  

    Hard to check on an iPhone, but I suspect he improves defensively but rates lower than other LF offensively.  However, depending on who takes over in RF,  the offense can be a wash while the OF defense can improve in real terms

    Reasonable question.   AL RFers have better offensive #'s on average (756 OPS) than LFer's (726) from 2013- present.    So Avi actually has a better chance of being an above league average hitting LFer than RFer. 

    As to defense, on cursory analysis both LFers and RFers are bad defenders in general. 
    LF probably more so (e.g,  Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Ryan Braun).   As a RFer, Avi's strong arm helps in preventing runners from going 1st to 3rd.  But it could useful in LF in gunning down runners going from 2nd to home.

    Biggest problem I see in him switching is that he's a bad ball tracker and moving him to a new spot might prove confusing to him at least for a while.  Although maybe in the long run, it would have its benefits.  Depends on who Sox would have for RF (maybe Moncada ?).
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed Jul 05, 2017 2:30 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:I wonder how Garcia would do in LF?  

    Hard to check on an iPhone, but I suspect he improves defensively but rates lower than other LF offensively.  However, depending on who takes over in RF,  the offense can be a wash while the OF defense can improve in real terms

    Reasonable question.   AL RFers have better offensive #'s on average (756 OPS) than LFer's (726) from 2013- present.    So Avi actually has a better chance of being an above league average hitting LFer than RFer. 

    As to defense, on cursory analysis both LFers and RFers are bad defenders in general. 
    LF probably more so (e.g,  Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Ryan Braun).   As a RFer, Avi's strong arm helps in preventing runners from going 1st to 3rd.  But it could useful in LF in gunning down runners going from 2nd to home.

    Biggest problem I see in him switching is that he's a bad ball tracker and moving him to a new spot might prove confusing to him at least for a while.  Although maybe in the long run, it would have its benefits.  Depends on who Sox would have for RF (maybe Moncada ?).


    Really?!?!?!?  RF now hit better than LF's.  Interesting.


    Regardless, OUR White Sox WILL keep Avisail in RF because that is where you play when you have a strong arm and lack a CF speed.  since I like to think outside the box, I have to wonder if there is any significant difference between fielding LF and RF in general.  There are some very obvious stadiums with park specific differences


    As for Moncada in RF or anywhere in the OF for that matter, can't see Yolmer Sanchez forcing that.  I only put Moncada in the OF if his 2B defense is average or below.  It my understanding that Moncada is supposed to be a better than average 2B
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Jul 05, 2017 3:59 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:

    Really?!?!?!?  RF now hit better than LF's.  Interesting.


    Regardless, OUR White Sox WILL keep Avisail in RF because that is where you play when you have a strong arm and lack a CF speed.  since I like to think outside the box, I have to wonder if there is any significant difference between fielding LF and RF in general.  There are some very obvious stadiums with park specific differences


    As for Moncada in RF or anywhere in the OF for that matter, can't see Yolmer Sanchez forcing that.  I only put Moncada in the OF if his 2B defense is average or below.  It my understanding that Moncada is supposed to be a better than average 2B

    Agree that it's an advantage to have a 850 -900 OPS 2nd baseman who can play defense, since in theory it's easier to find offense in the OF than 2b.  But OF defense can't be ignored either. Nor can the fact that Sox OF prospects aren't very good.

    If Sanchez can hit at his current level (738 OPS) or close, it may be worth thinking about Moncada for OF for several reasons:
    1- Sanchez is a plus defender and baserunner. At this pace, he'd be 2.5 WAR on the year.
    2- Melky, due to defense, is on pace for less than 1 WAR for the year.
    3- Sox really don't have a LFer in the system who looks any better than Melky 

    So to have a 2.5 WAR at 2b with Sanchez and a 4 WAR in LF with Moncada  would be better than a 4 WAR with Moncada at 2b and someone with 1 WAR or worse in Left Field


    Maybe this is Sanchez's "breakout" year at age 25. He's upped his BB rate and cut his K rate. His power hasn't developed and his BABIP says he's a bit over his head at .271 BA. But say he could put up 260/320/395  consistently with strong defense, that's a 2 WAR 2bman and if he's capable of some 275/340/410 seasons, that's 3 WAR.   Sanchez was a 763 OPS in his three years in AAA (at ages 22 to 24)  so it's not out of the question he could be a low-mid 700's in his theoretical peak years (age 26 to 30) in the majors.

    Last but not least even though the Sox could get a LFer in free agency, Melky is a real cautionary tale to that.   Melky had a 2.5 WAR season in 2014 and the Sox have to shell out
    $ 42 million for 3 years to a 30 year old guy entering his decline phase.  In fact, Melky has averaged less than 1 WAR per year in his time with the Sox.

    So rather than pay $ 45-50 million for a 2.5 WAR LFer entering his decline phase, why not pay Sanchez $15 -20 million for the same 2-ish WAR during his prime years, switch Moncada to LF and use the savings to get some stud starting pitcher. 
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by rmapasad on Wed Jul 05, 2017 5:48 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    1- Sanchez is a plus defender and baserunner. At this pace, he'd be 2.5 WAR on the year.
    2- Melky, due to defense, is on pace for less than 1 WAR for the year.
    3- Sox really don't have a LFer in the system who looks any better than Melky 
    So to have a 2.5 WAR at 2b with Sanchez and a 4 WAR in LF with Moncada  would be better than a 4 WAR with Moncada at 2b and someone with 1 WAR or worse in Left Field

    Put it another way.  You don't gain a big advantage replacing a 2 WAR 2bman like Sanchez with a 4-5 WAR 2bman (Moncada). But you do gain a big edge replacing a 0-1 WAR LFer (like Wily Garcia or Adam Engel who's really a CFer) with a 4-5 WAR guy like Moncada.  Moncada has got good foot speed too, which means he should be able to cover ground in the outfield. 
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    Re: Avi Garcia

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:15 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    1- Sanchez is a plus defender and baserunner. At this pace, he'd be 2.5 WAR on the year.
    2- Melky, due to defense, is on pace for less than 1 WAR for the year.
    3- Sox really don't have a LFer in the system who looks any better than Melky 
    So to have a 2.5 WAR at 2b with Sanchez and a 4 WAR in LF with Moncada  would be better than a 4 WAR with Moncada at 2b and someone with 1 WAR or worse in Left Field

    Put it another way.  You don't gain a big advantage replacing a 2 WAR 2bman like Sanchez with a 4-5 WAR 2bman (Moncada). But you do gain a big edge replacing a 0-1 WAR LFer (like Wily Garcia or Adam Engel who's really a CFer) with a 4-5 WAR guy like Moncada.  Moncada has got good foot speed too, which means he should be able to cover ground in the outfield. 


    This is a false choice.  As well as a short site choice.


    Moncada needs to be, at minimum, a 10 year fixture in the White Sox lineup.  He needs to play where HIS value is maximized.  Meaning, he plays 2B if that truly is his best position.


    Moving Moncada to the outfield under the theory that you can't find 3 outfielders better than Yolmer Sanchez is rather silly.  Now maybe Sanchez is having a better 2017 than OUR White Sox 3rd best OF, but that doesn't justify the move.  The White Sox are much better gambling on Garcia part 2 in 2018.  If that bombs, then you have guys like Fisher or Call or my new favorite Adolfo that may be ready by 2019 or 2020.  Then there is always trades and free agency.  Bottom line, if you can't find 3 OF better than Yolmer, you probably ain't contending anyway, so why bother trying to win 82 games instead of 79?


    The only way this move would make senses is if
    A) Moncada is not that good at 2B and would be better off in the OF
    B) I am completely underrating Yolmer Sanchez long term offensive potential

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