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    Double checking Rogers Math

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    Deplorable Mark
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    Double checking Rogers Math

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:18 am

    Since Roger brought up Tim Anderson's slow start, maybe the board CPA should audit Anderson's 2017 hitting statistics.


    So far this year, Anderson has 77 balls hit on the ground, 85 in the air.  Sample sizes too small to do anything.  And if you want to split these even further by speed and trajectory, well then you have about a dozen groups with maybe 20 AB tops.  That's not analysis, that mathematical masterbation.  Sorry, but the KARK is all out of kleenex.


    But since this board expects objective answers when the KARK puts on the CPA hat (as oppose to the clowns nose) let me point out that Anderson now has more than half the plate appearances that he had last year.  The following jump out at me


    1) didn't think it was possible, but walking less than last year.
    2) also striking out more than last year
    3) doubles and triples significantly behind last years pace
    4) a noticable improvement in homerun rate


    Gee, I wonder if the kid is just pressing and is swinging for the long ball more often than he should.  Could the explanation really be that simple?!?!?!?
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    rmapasad
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    Re: Double checking Rogers Math

    Post by rmapasad on Mon Jun 12, 2017 12:20 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:1) didn't think it was possible, but walking less than last year.
    2) also striking out more than last year
    3) doubles and triples significantly behind last years pace
    4) a noticable improvement in homerun rate
    Gee, I wonder if the kid is just pressing and is swinging for the long ball more often than he should.  Could the explanation really be that simple?!?!?!?

     I would quibble a bit about improvement in HR rate. He's averaging 13 HR per 500 PA this year v. 10 per 500 last year.  Not a huge difference.  The other thing is that the same 12% of his FB'  s are HR's as last year.
    One big difference, however, is that FB's are a greater percent (33%) of his balls in play than last year
    at only 25%.  So that supports your theory of  him swinging for the fences as he's elevating the ball more this year.  Unfortunately, he's hitting the same .200 on flyballs that don't leave the yard versus near .300 on grounders again this year.   Pretty simple equation for this guy - hit more on the ground where his speed helps get hits and fewer in the air where vast majority turn into outs. 
    But Anderson is also a bit unlucky on his line drives this year-  hitting only .558 v. .770 last.  Last year he got 14 doubles and triples off liners  this year only 2. Some of that bad luck could change as the year goes on.  He can't just keep hitting line drives right at fielders indefinitely.   If his LD rate were just league average he'd be hitting .279/.300/.415 now since a couple of those added LD's would probably be doubles.
    Of course, the barely 300 OBP would still make him a lousy guy to hit leadoff or 2nd.
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: Double checking Rogers Math

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Jun 12, 2017 1:03 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:1) didn't think it was possible, but walking less than last year.
    2) also striking out more than last year
    3) doubles and triples significantly behind last years pace
    4) a noticable improvement in homerun rate
    Gee, I wonder if the kid is just pressing and is swinging for the long ball more often than he should.  Could the explanation really be that simple?!?!?!?

     I would quibble a bit about improvement in HR rate. He's averaging 13 HR per 500 PA this year v. 10 per 500 last year.  Not a huge difference. 

    (13-10)/10 = 30% Improvement.  where's the quibble

    The other thing is that the same 12% of his FB'  s are HR's as last year.

    One big difference, however, is that FB's are a greater percent (33%) of his balls in play than last year
    at only 25%.  So that supports your theory of  him swinging for the fences as he's elevating the ball more this year.  Unfortunately, he's hitting the same .200 on flyballs that don't leave the yard versus near .300 on grounders again this year.   Pretty simple equation for this guy - hit more on the ground where his speed helps get hits and fewer in the air where vast majority turn into outs.

    So now groundballs go from lucky hits to a requirement to future success.  How do you keep this all straight
     

    But Anderson is also a bit unlucky on his line drives this year-  hitting only .558 v. .770 last.  Last year he got 14 doubles and triples off liners  this year only 2. Some of that bad luck could change as the year goes on.  He can't just keep hitting line drives right at fielders indefinitely.   If his LD rate were just league average he'd be hitting .279/.300/.415 now since a couple of those added LD's would probably be doubles.

    Maybe he has an unusual amount of soft liners.  Or maybe its too many border line linedrives.  Thanks to gravity, there is no such thing a a true straight line drive.  There will always be some curvature

    Of course, the barely 300 OBP would still make him a lousy guy to hit leadoff or 2nd.

    Yep.  Currently he belongs at #8 with the catcher #9.  Maybe #7 if Wily or some other rookie OF is starting
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    rmapasad
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    Re: Double checking Rogers Math

    Post by rmapasad on Mon Jun 12, 2017 4:27 pm

    So now groundballs go from lucky hits to a requirement to future success.  How do you keep this all straight >>
    I will admit to a mistake on Anderson's "lucky BIP" when we talked about this  two months ago.  I assumed most of his lucky hits were groundballs.  Some might have been but the real difference was line drives.   He hit .770 on them last year v. .684 league and only .588 this year.
    If LD rate were league average last year, he'd have hit .268 overall and if it were this year's .588 on he'd have ended up at .256 overall - very close to where he is now. 
    Basically 1 more line drive hit per 2 weeks is the difference between this year and last year. Like the old Crash Davis analysis, if TA was as unlucky on LD's last year as he's been this year and hit .256 overall probably no extension.  
    But was it just "luck" difference on these line drives ?  The evidence seems to say so.  His LD hits this year are harder (95 mph) than last year (91 mph).  And his LD outs average virtually the same 87 this year v. 88 mph last year.   So it appears fielders have been right in the way of a lot more of his liners this year.  Maybe some of that is due to the league being more familiar with him and stationing fielders in the right spots.   But some of that is bad luck in hitting a liner to the wrong spot at the wrong time which should change into better luck as time goes on.
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: Double checking Rogers Math

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Jun 13, 2017 10:21 am

    I will admit to a mistake 


    ***************************


    NOW WE ARE MAKING PROGRESS!!!!!!


    NOW YOU NEED TO REALIZE THAT THE LEAGUE AVERAGE IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT THAN A SPECIFIC PLAYERS TRUE PROBABILITY.  NEITHER OF WHICH ARE STATIC.


    IT WOULD ALSO HELP IF YOU EXPRESSED YOUR SENTIMENTS IN SHORT SIMPLE STATEMENTS INSTEAD OF OVERANALYZING VERY SMALL AMOUNTS OF DATA THAT CAN TURN ON A DIME.  FOR EXAMPLE, THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT WOULD HAVE SUMMARIZED YOUR BELIEFS ABOUT GARCIA WITHOUT CAUSING ANY CONTROVERSY:


    Any stiff can have a hot two weeks. Lets see if he can maintain.  Hitting some homers would also be nice
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    rmapasad
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    Re: Double checking Rogers Math

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:21 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:NOW YOU NEED TO REALIZE THAT THE LEAGUE AVERAGE IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT THAN A SPECIFIC PLAYERS TRUE PROBABILITY.  NEITHER OF WHICH ARE STATIC.


    IT WOULD ALSO HELP IF YOU EXPRESSED YOUR SENTIMENTS IN SHORT SIMPLE STATEMENTS INSTEAD OF OVERANALYZING VERY SMALL AMOUNTS OF DATA THAT CAN TURN ON A DIME.  FOR EXAMPLE, THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT WOULD HAVE SUMMARIZED YOUR BELIEFS ABOUT GARCIA WITHOUT CAUSING ANY CONTROVERSY:


    Any stiff can have a hot two weeks. Lets see if he can maintain.  Hitting some homers would also be nice

    Yes, above avg skills should = above league average results.  I've never said otherwise. But when guys don't hit GB's harder than avg. or run faster than avg. but have well above avg. GB hit rates, they'll trend back to league avg. They can only live off good luck so long.

    In Avi's case, he's had a hot 10 weeks. Some real improvement in FB velocity and distance.
    But he's also been extremely aggressive (only walking 1/2 as much as last year) and was never very
    disciplined to begin with.  I don't see him going Conor Gillaspie, who had a .340 avg. until mid June 2014 then collapsed. Gillaspie had no real skills to support that.

    But I also can't see Garcia swinging at everything and anything pitchers throw up there and getting premier results over time.  It could be he can keep this up all year but I see more of a mid 700's second half coming. Which still will mean he'd finish the year mid 800's overall and be a fixture for 2018.
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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: Double checking Rogers Math

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Jun 13, 2017 2:29 pm

    It could be he can keep this up all year but I see more of a mid 700's second half coming.


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