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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu May 18, 2017 12:42 pm

    WHAT YOU FAIL TO UNDERSTAND IS THAT IS ABSURD TO EXPECT EVERY MAJOR LEAGUE HITTER TO RIGIDLY FOLLOW SOME AVERAGE HIT DISTRIBUTION!!!!!


    NOBODY EXPECTED GARCIA TO HIT 465 ALL YEAR!!!!!!


    ONCE AGAIN YOU PROVE YOURSELF MASTER OF THE OBVIOUS.


    AS FOR REAL CONVERSATION, THAT'S A LAUGH.  EVERYTIME I CATCH YOU IN A MISTAKE, WHICH IS QUITE OFTEN, YOU SPEW YOUR DOUBLE TALK.
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by rmapasad on Thu May 18, 2017 2:32 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:WHAT YOU FAIL TO UNDERSTAND IS THAT IS ABSURD TO EXPECT EVERY MAJOR LEAGUE HITTER TO RIGIDLY FOLLOW SOME AVERAGE HIT DISTRIBUTION!!!!!

    NOBODY EXPECTED GARCIA TO HIT 465 ALL YEAR!!!!!!

    ONCE AGAIN YOU PROVE YOURSELF MASTER OF THE OBVIOUS.

    AS FOR REAL CONVERSATION, THAT'S A LAUGH.  EVERYTIME I CATCH YOU IN A MISTAKE, WHICH IS QUITE OFTEN, YOU SPEW YOUR DOUBLE TALK.

    You are more eager for the ego exercise of pouncing on an alleged mistake than in having a reasonable conversation.  So eager that you misconstrue or just outright invent a statement  into a false straw man you can rant about.  My comments about Garcia's luck on groundballs a week ago get conflated into an alleged opinion that I "expect every hitter to rigidly follow some average hit distribution." 
    Do you realize how silly that allegation is ?  Essentially you're saying I expect Mike Trout to only hit 18 HR's this year because that's league average..  Get real. 
    Unlike HR's, both luck and skill come into groundball singles, and sometimes it's hard to tell which is which.  Speed skill guys like Anderson can get more hits from IF grounders. Hitting the ball hard can produce scorching hard-to-react groundballs but that's trickier.   Both Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols hit the ball hard, but Cabrera's GB single rate is much better than Pujols.

    Questions about Garcia's rash of groundball singles this year are legit, especially since he's never been more than average at GB singles before.  Is this a sudden burst of newfound skill or just luck ?  So I do understand the issue correctly and would welcome a reasonable conversation on it. But if all you are interested in trying to do is invent false "gotchas" to satisfy your ego, then so be it.
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu May 18, 2017 4:22 pm

    Hillarious how you want reasonable conversation when you take completely unreasonable positions.


    And if I am misconstruing anything its due to your poor wording.


    did you ever think that Garcia's 465 start had nothing to do with luck?!?!?!  maybe it had everything to do with starting the season hot, meaning there was no cold streak to cool his numbers down.


    I'm sure you have noticed every single hitter that has ever played the game goes thru hot and cold spells.  the good ones stay hotter longer.


    But here you are claiming its nothing but luck as if you are the all knowing expert.  Jumping to the silliest of conclusions on a weeks worth of data


    PS, I bet if anybody checks, this rash of singles will turn out to be a figment of your imagination
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu May 18, 2017 4:42 pm

    JUST AS I THOUGHT, ROGER ONCE AGAIN MISINTEREPTED THE DATA AND MISLEAD US ALL!!!




    I just compared the splits from 2016 to 2017 for Avisail Garcia.


    Yes, his average on groundballs increase from 216 to 321


    But so did his average on flyballs, 213 to 346


    Digging deeper into his splits, his K/AB drops from 276 to 205 while his line drive/AB increased from 169 to 213.


    So this notion that Garcia has improved due to a bunch of lucky groundball hits is for the most part untrue.  What is really fueling the Garcia improvement is a dramactic reduction of strike outs combined with a dramatic increase in hitting line drives.
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri May 19, 2017 8:21 am

    And another thing,  In 2016, 56% of Garcia's batted balls where grounders.  When I checked yesterday, it was 50% in 2017.


    So just where is this rash of groundballs?!?!?!?
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri May 19, 2017 8:30 am

    It gets even better folks.


    In 2016, Garcia had 32 XBH.  18D, 2T, 12HR.  In 2017, Garcia is already halfway to matching that total with 7D, 3T, 6HR.


    Garcia's isolated power has increased about 50% from last year going from 140 to 214.


    Clearly Garcia is hitting the ball harder this year.  so logically, his groundballs should be hit harder meaning they have a better chance of getting thru the infield.


    So again, there is no rash of lucky groundball hits.  More like Garcia dropped 20 pounds this winter and got himself into excellent shape.  So if somebody wants to call getting in shape a sudden burst of a newfound skill....
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri May 19, 2017 8:54 am

    And its statement like this that make Roger so infuriating:

    Questions about Garcia's rash of groundball singles this year are legit, especially since he's never been more than average at GB singles before.  Is this a sudden burst of newfound skill or just luck ?

    The way he phrases his question very leading.  Well excuse me for objecting to leading the witness.


    Not only that, but his premise is false.  He claims Garcia has never been more than average.  Well Garcia has never been a 350 hitter b4!  If one actually compares Garcia to Garcia's past instead of insisting upon the false premise that he must converge to the league average you get the following:


    In 2016, Garcia batted 216 on grounders compared to 245 overall.
    In 2017, Garcia is batting 328 compared to 352


    seems very consistant to me.  In both case, Garcia's groundball average is less than his overall average by roughly similar amounts.


    so again, there is no rash of groundball hits making Garcia look lucky.  what is really happening is Garcia is striking out less and replacing those K's with line drives.  line drives that fall for hits almost 3/4ths of the time.


    BTW, Garcia is also walking less and hitting for more power.  Add this to getting in shape, then the conclusion is obvious.  Garcia is stronger and more aggressive than the past.  This idea that he is just lucky is purely bad math.


    Thank the Lord Kenny Williams looked at the tools and looked at the person instead of just 2 years of bad stats
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by rmapasad on Fri May 19, 2017 10:11 am

    So this notion that Garcia has improved due to a bunch of lucky groundball hits is for the most part untrue.  What is really fueling the Garcia improvement is a dramactic reduction of strike outs combined with a dramatic increase in hitting line drives.>>

    First off, I commend that you looked up some information like that.  Second, I wasn't saying that Garcia's surge this year was all luck.  Some of it is, particularly the GB hit rate.  He'd be hitting 45 pts less on overall BA if he had the same GB hit rate as last year.  He'd be hitting 28 pts less if he had same
    LD/per BIP as last year, and 24 pts less if he had same FB hit rate as last year.
    So saying that his higher GB BA is the leading factor in his BA surge this year was not wrong.  However, his LD rate and FB BA when combined have contributed slightly more ( 7 pts) to his overall BA surge than his GB BA.
    So I agree some genuine improvements are causing this.  Lower K rate, more power on his FB's/LD's.
    Somewhat oddly though of his 19 GB hits, 11 have been infield hits.   He had only 5 IF hits all of last year in nearly 3 times the number of PA's.   Has he suddenly developed more speed to beat out IF hits ?

    Part of his big change may come from what I saw in the Angels series and Angels' broadcasters also commented on it.  He was very aggressive at putting ball in play early in the count. Sure enough, the stats bear it out.  This year, he is putting the ball in play 42% of the time in the first two pitches versus only 27 % last year.  And he's getting good results - hitting .477 on those pitches v. .377 last year. 

    Rather than being more patient, he's seemingly said "fuck it, I'll just be more aggressive." It's working so far. Other teams will take note obviously and we'll see what happens as the season progresses.
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by rmapasad on Fri May 19, 2017 10:45 am

    so again, there is no rash of groundball hits making Garcia look lucky.  what is really happening is Garcia is striking out less and replacing those K's with line drives.  line drives that fall for hits almost 3/4ths of the time.
    BTW, Garcia is also walking less and hitting for more power.  Add this to getting in shape, then the conclusion is obvious.  Garcia is stronger and more aggressive than the past.  This idea that he is just lucky is purely bad math.
    Thank the Lord Kenny Williams looked at the tools and looked at the person instead of just 2 years of bad stats>>>
    Yes Garcia is looking downright Jose Guillen-like this year, even Guillen's 900+ breakout year. Very Happy Very Happy
    1st- as noted in my prior post, 11 of Garcia's 19 groundball hits this year were infield hits.  So don't know whether he's hitting his grounders harder. IF hits are often soft balls or balls in the hole that a fielder knocks down.  Some may be hard shots that handcuff the fielder, but often those are ruled errors.  If Garcia dropping 20 lbs. has made him speedier in beating out balls to IF that could be part of the answer too.
    2nd- he is replacing K's and BB's with more BIP's for sure but they aren't all LD's - they're everything. When I quoted his LD % a few weeks ago(which is LD/BIP - stat sites never use LD/AB) it looked similar to last year. Then I noticed Fan Graphs consider some balls FB's that Baseball Reference consider line drives as FG has him hitting 7 fewer LD's. His LD/BIP has increased using BR, but even using BR's LD numbers it increases his BA 28 pts where the GB BA improvement increases it 45.
    3rd- Working out, dropping weight over the winter may be explanations for greater strength and speed possibly. But they sure aren't things Kenny Williams or anyone else knew on Dec 7th when tender or no-tender decisions had to be made.  So much for the  narrative that he saw this coming. 
    Again, I think Kenny may have made the case Garcia was worth keeping because of his tools and his relatively young age. But the Sox picking up Asche and Liriano as Plans B + C showed that skepticism was still there.
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri May 19, 2017 11:12 am

    3rd- Working out, dropping weight over the winter may be explanations for greater strength and speed possibly. But they sure aren't things Kenny Williams or anyone else knew on Dec 7th when tender or no-tender decisions had to be made.  So much for the  narrative that he saw this coming. 



    *************************************************


    Really?!?!?!?!?


    You don't think the White Sox had any idea as to what Garcia was doing over the winter?!?!?!


    Again, the way you word things is completely misleading.


    It is far more responsible to think the White Sox told him to get in shape and be ready to play this spring than you rather silly narrative that they just rolled the dice hoping they'd get lucky with a player nobody really believed in.


    And once again, you prove yourself a frustrating individual because have claiming all spring that the White Sox might get lucky with an improved Garcia, then you claim the improvement is basically luck


    And you wonder why I think you are just deliberately disagreeing with me
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri May 19, 2017 11:22 am

    BTW, when I applied 2016 rates to 2017 plate appearance, I lose 7 groundball hits.


    Meaning he is getting one extra groundball hit a week


    and where is it written that this must be luck?!?!?!?


    You do realize the word LUCK implies getting something you don't deserve.


    So who are you to make this claim Garcia is just getting lucky.


    Likewise, just what makes a groundball hit less legitimate than a line drive hit or a flyball hit?


    Finally, 150 at bats is not a large enough number for all the random flucation to even out. Plus, a players probability changes from year to year.  so to expect everything to start converging to 2016 averages is just bad math
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by rmapasad on Fri May 19, 2017 2:31 pm


    Really?!?!?!?!?
    You don't think the White Sox had any idea as to what Garcia was doing over the winter?!?!?!
    Again, the way you word things is completely misleading.
    It is far more responsible to think the White Sox told him to get in shape and be ready to play this spring than you rather silly narrative that they just rolled the dice hoping they'd get lucky with a player nobody really believed in.
    And once again, you prove yourself a frustrating individual because have claiming all spring that the White Sox might get lucky with an improved Garcia, then you claim the improvement is basically luck
    nd you wonder why I think you are just deliberately disagreeing with me


    I think you're the deliberate disagreer.  How could the Sox know on Dec 7th what Garcia was going to look like on March 1st ?  Even if they told him to do X and Y, no guarantee he'd do it.  Or whether it would matter even if he did.  Guys lose weight all the time and it hasn't changed a thing (like Pablo Sandoval who shed Lbs. his winter then hit a sizzling .213 before he went on the DL again.)

    You were screaming all winter how bad Garcia's track record was and don't you think he had his critics in the WS front office too ?  You honestly think "he's a stud and we told him to lose weight" is enough to get them to tender him a contract on Dec 7th ?.  They're businessmen. They do get "low risk, possible reward" (25, power build, maybe could break out, we're not competing so no need to spend $ 10 mil plus to get a free agent, 3mil isn't that much, plus we can cut him in ST and save $ 2 mil of it if he shows up out of shape or stinks it up).  That all makes sense.

    I was saying early in the year, before Garcia's power kicked in, that his singles hitting was driven by luck and today some of that still shows up in his Bat Avg.  But he's also shown genuine improvements that go beyond mere luck.  The most impressive stretch, IMO, has been the last 8 games where he's had 5 EB hits
    to snap out of his early May mini-slump.

    We'll see where it is another month from now.  Hopefully all is still good.  God knows the Sox need  OFer's who might have some future.
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by rmapasad on Fri May 19, 2017 3:05 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:You do realize the word LUCK implies getting something you don't deserve.  So who are you to make this claim Garcia is just getting lucky. Likewise, just what makes a groundball hit less legitimate than a line drive hit or a flyball hit?
    Finally, 150 at bats is not a large enough number for all the random flucation to even out. Plus, a players probability changes from year to year.  so to expect everything to start converging to 2016 averages is just bad math




    If you don't like the term "luck" then substitute the word "randomness" in terms of whether most GB's become hits or not. Depends on where fielders are stationed, how rangy they are, how well they throw, etc.   Batter only has so much control of whether his GB's become hits.  Best thing is to have speed.
    Best Gb hit rates are the Dee Gordon types who can beat out IF grounders.
    YEah, maybe guys who hit hard GB's are more "deserving" but that's not necessarily what happens.   Hard GB's give fielders time to knock it down and still make a play.  Particularly if a guy is hard-hitting slower player like David Ortiz, Encarnacion, Pujols. They have consistently the worst GB BAs.

    IF hit rate is a big factor in how many GB's go for hits or not.  Garcia's way over the top IF hit rate this year is out of kilter for a guy that doesn't have blazing speed.  Maybe he's hitting them hard, and has enough speed (certainly lot more than above guys) to beat out throws.   But he won't maintain his current 20% hit rate on his IF groundballs when the top speed guys are only 10-13%.
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri May 19, 2017 3:21 pm

    rmapasad wrote:

    Really?!?!?!?!?
    You don't think the White Sox had any idea as to what Garcia was doing over the winter?!?!?!
    Again, the way you word things is completely misleading.
    It is far more responsible to think the White Sox told him to get in shape and be ready to play this spring than you rather silly narrative that they just rolled the dice hoping they'd get lucky with a player nobody really believed in.
    And once again, you prove yourself a frustrating individual because have claiming all spring that the White Sox might get lucky with an improved Garcia, then you claim the improvement is basically luck
    nd you wonder why I think you are just deliberately disagreeing with me


    I think you're the deliberate disagreer.  How could the Sox know on Dec 7th what Garcia was going to look like on March 1st ?  Even if they told him to do X and Y, no guarantee he'd do it.  Or whether it would matter even if he did.  Guys lose weight all the time and it hasn't changed a thing (like Pablo Sandoval who shed Lbs. his winter then hit a sizzling .213 before he went on the DL again.)

    YOU SAID IT YOURSELF, THEY COULD ALWAYS CUT HIM ON 3/15 AT MINIMAL COST


    You were screaming all winter how bad Garcia's track record was and don't you think he had his critics in the WS front office too ? 

    One, I'm just a fan.  Two, I had no problem admitting I was wrong about him.  Three, regardless of whether probability of success was 1% or 99%, the White Sox don't take the gamble without some belief it pays off

     You honestly think "he's a stud and we told him to lose weight" is enough to get them to tender him a contract on Dec 7th ?. 

    YES

    They're businessmen.

    Business men never make mistakes?!?!?!

    They do get "low risk, possible reward" (25, power build, maybe could break out, we're not competing so no need to spend $ 10 mil plus to get a free agent, 3mil isn't that much, plus we can cut him in ST and save $ 2 mil of it if he shows up out of shape or stinks it up).  That all makes sense.

    No that's you inventing narratives again.  There were cheaper alternatives.  Again, you seem to be projecting.  And its your belief that Garcia is nothing but dumb luck that doesn't make sense



    I was saying early in the year, before Garcia's power kicked in, that his singles hitting was driven by luck and today some of that still shows up in his Bat Avg.  But he's also shown genuine improvements that go beyond mere luck.  The most impressive stretch, IMO, has been the last 8 games where he's had 5 EB hits
    to snap out of his early May mini-slump.

    Again, you are assuming groundballs are some how less worthy of being called hits and calling them luck implies he is an undeserved beneficiary.  this wouldn't be an issue is you didn't start jumping to conclusions after two weeks into the season.  Maybe you should google the math principle know as the LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS.  Trying to draw any meaningful conclusion on an 8 game stretch is just silly.


    We'll see where it is another month from now.  Hopefully all is still good.  God knows the Sox need  OFer's who might have some future.



    and I'm sure you'll be there to chronicle how he was first lucky, then powerful, then crashing back to earth just to rediscover his power all over again.  and when he ends the year with something like a 290 BA, you'll claim how you always knew 350 was unsustainable.  As if anybody thought he be batting champion because of a hot start.
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri May 19, 2017 3:26 pm

    Speaking of Garcia's, last night the Hawk proclaimed wily is as strong as a bull


    Wouldn't know it by his 280 SLG


    The White Sox apparently have a thing for "toolsy" players.


    If they were going hard core saber, I doubt they'd touch a Garcia with a 10 foot pole.
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri May 19, 2017 3:49 pm

     But he won't maintain his current 20% hit rate on his IF groundballs when the top speed guys are only 10-13%.


    *****************************


    Aren't you the guy that had a fit when I accused you of suggesting that hitter must follow some league average hit distribution?!?!?!?


    Isn't that exactly what going from 20 - 10 is?!?!?!?!?


    And why can't he?!?!?!?


    and how the hell is he hitting 645 on outfield hits?!?!?


    why is 645 real and 204 luck?!?!?!?


    Seems to me these saber goofs are slicing and dicing to the point that the stats are meaningless.


    so again, my explanation makes the most sense.  He started off super hot and since there was no cold spell to cool off his stats, he batted 465.  But to draw any conclusion on 2 weeks of stats is silly.  However that is exactly what you did.


    When in truth, you most likely got it backwards.  His hot start fueled his groundball hits.  Luck had nothing to do with it.  Cut his infield hits in half and he is still hitting 310
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by rmapasad on Fri May 19, 2017 5:58 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote: But he won't maintain his current 20% hit rate on his IF groundballs when the top speed guys are only 10-13%.


    *****************************


    Aren't you the guy that had a fit when I accused you of suggesting that hitter must follow some league average hit distribution?!?!?!?


    Isn't that exactly what going from 20 - 10 is?!?!?!?!?


    And why can't he?!?!?!?


    and how the hell is he hitting 645 on outfield hits?!?!?


    why is 645 real and 204 luck?!?!?!?


    Seems to me these saber goofs are slicing and dicing to the point that the stats are meaningless.


    so again, my explanation makes the most sense.  He started off super hot and since there was no cold spell to cool off his stats, he batted 465.  But to draw any conclusion on 2 weeks of stats is silly.  However that is exactly what you did.


    When in truth, you most likely got it backwards.  His hot start fueled his groundball hits.  Luck had nothing to do with it.  Cut his infield hits in half and he is still hitting 310


     League average on IF hits is around 6.5 % of all IF grounders.  The top guys are 10-13% and they're speed merchants.  So Garcia's
    current 19.5 % IF hit rate is crazy high, especially since he was 5% last year and never been higher than 10% over a full year. 
    Agree, if he's 10 %, he's still hitting .310 and 10% may be realistic since he did it 2015.  But the good news is he's not so
    dependant on IF hits that even if he were to slip back to 5% rate from here on, he'd still be valuable by keeping up the extra base hits and lower K's.
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by rmapasad on Fri May 19, 2017 6:33 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    One, I'm just a fan.  Two, I had no problem admitting I was wrong about him.  Three, regardless of whether probability of success was 1% or 99%, the White Sox don't take the gamble without some belief it pays off  >>
    There was always some basis for believing.  He was a BA top 100 prospect once so it's not like he has zero talent.   But since the Sox weren't contending they can play the lower end of that odds spectrum if the financial risk was limited, which it was.  Do you seriously think a contender would have wanted him as their starting RFer considering two straight sub-700 OPS seasons and his piss poor defense ? He's still clueless on flyballs at times.

    No that's you inventing narratives again.  There were cheaper alternatives.  Again, you seem to be projecting.  And its your belief that Garcia is nothing but dumb luck that doesn't make sense

    Sox went after cheaper alternatives in Asche and Liriano .  You wanted Chris Carter but he isn't an outfielder, wasn't any cheaper, and is nearly five years older.  He was no alternative to Garcia. 
    I didn't say Garcia is "nothing but dumb luck" rather a portion of his success has come from hitting singles at an unsustainable
    rate. Even if his singles hitting rate drops down to his past levels, he's still a success if his power stays what's been so far. 






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    Re: Anderson

    Post by rmapasad on Fri May 19, 2017 7:21 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Speaking of Garcia's, last night the Hawk proclaimed wily is as strong as a bull


    Wouldn't know it by his 280 SLG


    The White Sox apparently have a thing for "toolsy" players.


    You think ? They draft and trade for guys who look like linebackers.  What's it gotten them ?
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    Re: Anderson

    Post by jaywit on Fri May 19, 2017 7:54 pm

    rmapasad wrote:

    You are more eager for the ego exercise of pouncing on an alleged mistake than in having a reasonable conversation. 

    So's the president!  It's the new American way.

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