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    First 20 games

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    alohafri
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by alohafri on Mon May 01, 2017 6:33 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    alohafri wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:YOU JUST CAN'T HANDLE THE KARK BEING CORRECT, CAN YOU....


    PS, I DUMP GEO SOTO THIS JULY IF ZACH COLLINS IS DEEMED READY

    HarOLD Baines was 106. He was at the point of diminishing returns. You are dealing with a lot of "what ifs". I guarandamntee that the Sox will be a shell of their April selves by the All-Star break.


    For someone like Melky, you will probably get a minor league filler or a can't miss prospect who missed. No one is going to give you a top of the line prospect for a thirty-three year old outfielder who was suspended for PEDs. Not unless Kenny goes to work for another team.



    Harold Baines had an OPS of 819 the year after the midseason dump and over 900 the year after that

    but why let the facts get in the way of your deliberate disagreement

    As for what ifs, you are the one that sided with the Californian about taking long shots.

    BTW, I didn't necessarily disagree with taking longshots.  More like I didn't believe his imaginary conversations.  Is there any proof that Kenny Williams pulled rank on Rick Hahn concerning Avisail Garcia?  And if that actually happened, doesn't that  prove your little buddy completely wrong regarding his ridiculous claim about what the only logical option was?  I'm sure you having the reading comprehension to figure out that  under Roger's narrative, if not for Williams, Garcia would have been non tendered by Hahn.

    Speaking of reading comprehension, the point isn't whether or not the White Sox find themselves in contention by the Break.  Its what if they do?  the answer is easy if they are 10 under and 15 out.  Not so easy if they are a game or 3 above 500 and the rest of the division sucks making winning the AL Central a possibility.  this would directly relate to Quintana and Robertson

    If the Sox are in the position that you seem to expect them to be, I'll eat my head.
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon May 01, 2017 7:06 pm

    Excuse me reading comprehension, but there is a difference between expecting and acknowledging a possibility.

    Plus you can blame Roger.  He either hinted or made a poorly worded comment that sounded like maybe some rebuilding trades don't get made if our White Sox play well enough.  Maybe you should suggest writing tips to your little buddy instead of falsely attacking my reading ability
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by rmapasad on Tue May 02, 2017 9:56 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Excuse me reading comprehension, but there is a difference between expecting and acknowledging a possibility.

    Plus you can blame Roger.  He either hinted or made a poorly worded comment that sounded like maybe some rebuilding trades don't get made if our White Sox play well enough.  Maybe you should suggest writing tips to your little buddy instead of falsely attacking my reading ability

    You want to keep quibbling about this, fine. I did recognize the remote possibility that Sox could be in legit contention by the All Star break.  If so, from a PR standpoint it could be tough for the front office to trade Quintana, Robertson, or Abreu.  Or even Frazier or Cabrera who are impending FA's.  Also, Moncada, Lopez and/or Gioloto could have been brought up like Anderson was last year.

    But for all this mental masturbation to be anywhere near realistic, Gonzalez, Shields, Holland and the bullpen have to keep overperforming like they did in April.  That's very improbable.
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by alohafri on Tue May 02, 2017 10:13 am

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:Excuse me reading comprehension, but there is a difference between expecting and acknowledging a possibility.

    Plus you can blame Roger.  He either hinted or made a poorly worded comment that sounded like maybe some rebuilding trades don't get made if our White Sox play well enough.  Maybe you should suggest writing tips to your little buddy instead of falsely attacking my reading ability

    You want to keep quibbling about this, fine. I did recognize the remote possibility that Sox could be in legit contention by the All Star break.  If so, from a PR standpoint it could be tough for the front office to trade Quintana, Robertson, or Abreu.  Or even Frazier or Cabrera who are impending FA's.  Also, Moncada, Lopez and/or Gioloto could have been brought up like Anderson was last year.

    But for all this mental masturbation to be anywhere near realistic, Gonzalez, Shields, Holland and the bullpen have to keep overperforming like they did in April.  That's very improbable. impossible.

    Fixed it for ya! Smile
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue May 02, 2017 10:47 am

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:Excuse me reading comprehension, but there is a difference between expecting and acknowledging a possibility.

    Plus you can blame Roger.  He either hinted or made a poorly worded comment that sounded like maybe some rebuilding trades don't get made if our White Sox play well enough.  Maybe you should suggest writing tips to your little buddy instead of falsely attacking my reading ability

    You want to keep quibbling about this, fine. I did recognize the remote possibility that Sox could be in legit contention by the All Star break.  If so, from a PR standpoint it could be tough for the front office to trade Quintana, Robertson, or Abreu.  Or even Frazier or Cabrera who are impending FA's.  Also, Moncada, Lopez and/or Gioloto could have been brought up like Anderson was last year.

    But for all this mental masturbation to be anywhere near realistic, Gonzalez, Shields, Holland and the bullpen have to keep overperforming like they did in April.  That's very improbable.

    Quibbling?!?!?!?!?!


    I simply asked for clarification


    the way the KARK's mathematical mind works, when he sees the word IF, he automatically thinks IF - THEN - ELSE.  So excuse me for not seeing the ELSE.  At least I politely asked you to clarify
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue May 02, 2017 11:25 am

    rmapasad wrote:BTW, I didn't necessarily disagree with taking longshots.  More like I didn't believe his imaginary conversations.  Is there any proof that Kenny Williams pulled rank on Rick Hahn concerning Avisail Garcia?  And if that actually happened, doesn't that  prove your little buddy completely wrong regarding his ridiculous claim about what the only logical option was?  I'm sure you having the reading comprehension to figure out that  under Roger's narrative, if not for Williams, Garcia would have been non tendered by Hahn.
    Speaking of reading comprehension, the point isn't whether or not the White Sox find themselves in contention by the Break.  Its what if they do?  the answer is easy if they are 10 under and 15 out.  Not so easy if they are a game or 3 above 500 and the rest of the division sucks making winning the AL Central a possibility.  this would directly relate to Quintana and Robertson  >>


    You didn't have a "problem taking longshots" yet you screamed all offseason about "rebuilding doesn't mean deliberately sucking", harangued us on why Sox should be getting proven guys like Wieters, Fister, Carter, etc, instead of wasting time on longshots like Garcia, and other "Quad A Crap"  .. LMAO.

    and you claim I oversimply and distort....

    1) rebuilding doesn't mean deliberately sucking means you don't have to lose a 100 games.  something you want to happen.  Now your calling it "gravy"  Care to explain this obvious contradiction
    2) I never said the Sox should get those guys.  I said they should get them on the cheap if possible.  BTW, Wieters is blowing away Geo "1 game wonder" Soto.  Fister would have replaced Covey and his 7.29 ERA.  OK, Carter screws Davidson.  But in the words of Meatloaf, 2 out of 3 ain't bad.



    Then about a week ago, you claim that "making a move EVERYBODY on this board would have made had they suddenly found themselves the GM on December 1, 2016.  That is, non tendering his big fat Venezualan ass."   Don't recall anyone else on this Board saying they would have non-tendered Garcia

     who the hell is still posting other than you me and that teacher?!?!?!  I don't recall there being any Garcia supporters here last November.  In fact, I bet everybody here would have traded him last august for the infamous PTBNL


    and why would Hahn as GM done that if it wasn't logical ?

     Excuse me, but in another post you called this a concession to Kenny.  Implying that if not for Kenny, than Hahn would have non tendered him.

     It was YOU who inferred Kenny forced his will over the others, not me.  

     that's how you worded it

    "PS, Kenny always knew Garcia would be this good, Thank God for Kenny Williams ".

    Obviously neither of us know for sure what was going on in Kenny's or Hahn's minds, but simply inferring things from past conduct. Garcia is the kind of toolsy, athletic type that Kenny has liked.  Assuming Kenny was still a big Garcia fan and pushing him, my point was that Hahn had no real reason to oppose Kenny.  Sox weren't contending, Garcia's only 26, $ 3 mil isn't that much and if he stunk up Spring Training, Sox could cut him by March 31 and only pay him 1/4 of it..  So what LOGICAL reason did Hahn (or any other reasonable GM) have to not tender him ?

    You really need a course in logic 101.  first you admit you don't know what Williams and Hahn were thinking, then you go right back to assuming Hahn was not in Garcia's corner.  so again, its not so much that I opposed long shots.  Its more like I resent how you constantly make stuff up like this imaginary conservation where Williams pushed Garcia and Hahn had no real reason.  Have you ever had a job where you disagreed with you boss?  Ever hear of picking your battles.  For all we know, both Hahn and Williams were both firm believers in Garcia.  Yet you keep concocting these imaginary narratives and insists that it had to go down this way.  Not to mention all your sloppy statistical research.  3 times you did you stiff to star study and you never did get the sample right.  


    and another thing, after defending him spring long, you are the one now claiming Garcia's a fluke because too many of his hits are groundballs.  where do you come up with this bullshit?
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by rmapasad on Tue May 02, 2017 12:31 pm

    alohafri wrote:
    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:Excuse me reading comprehension, but there is a difference between expecting and acknowledging a

    You want to keep quibbling about this, fine. I did recognize the remote possibility that Sox could be in legit contention by the All Star break.  If so, from a PR standpoint it could be tough for the front office to trade Quintana, Robertson, or Abreu.  Or even Frazier or Cabrera who are impending FA's.  Also, Moncada, Lopez and/or Gioloto could have been brought up like Anderson was last year.

    But for all this mental masturbation to be anywhere near realistic, Gonzalez, Shields, Holland and the bullpen have to keep overperforming like they did in April.  That's very improbable. impossible.

    Fixed it for ya! Smile

    Am looking at the low ERA's of most Sox pitchers right now and wondering how this can keep up.  They can't.  They really aren't this good.  Except for Kahnle, possibly.
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue May 02, 2017 1:20 pm

    DUH!!!!


    Like anybody is claiming a collective bullpen ERA of 1.00 for the entire year.


    BTW, the ERA for Jones, Robertson and Ynoa look sustainable.


    The only reliever that is really overacheing is Swarzak.  But he is totally replacable if this isn't his Neal Cotts/Cliff Polite year.


    Abreau and Frazier are starting to hit.  The White Sox need Cabrera and Anderson to come around.


    So in retrospect, there was no logical reason to think OUR White Sox would lose 95+.  But there was probably a 1 in 7 chance they would contend for the highly coveted AL Central Title despite trading off Sale and Eaton
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by rmapasad on Tue May 02, 2017 1:47 pm

    You really need a course in logic 101.  first you admit you don't know what Williams and Hahn were thinking, then you go right back to assuming Hahn was not in Garcia's corner.  so again, its not so much that I opposed long shots.  Its more like I resent how you constantly make stuff up like this imaginary conservation where Williams pushed Garcia and Hahn had no real reason.  Have you ever had a job where you disagreed with you boss?  Ever hear of picking your battles.  For all we know, both Hahn and Williams were both firm believers in Garcia.  Yet you keep concocting these imaginary narratives and insists that it had to go down this way.  Not to mention all your sloppy statistical research.  3 times you did you stiff to star study and you never did get the sample right.  


    and another thing, after defending him spring long, you are the one now claiming Garcia's a fluke because too many of his hits are groundballs.  where do you come up with this bullshit?


    1- Said all along that if wins this year come from guys that Sox will have for a while, that's OK. But there aren't enough of those on Opening Day roster to move the win needle that much.  Saw Sox as 62-65 win team assuming Q, Frazier, Cabrera, etc get traded by midseason.  Even if Garcia and Davidson suddenly become 2 WAR guys (still a bit of a reality stretch) that makes Sox a 67-70 winner, and that also allows high draft picks in 2018.  The lose-lose proposition is for Sox to win 75-78 games based on short-timers like Q, Frazier, etc. being held all year plus your ideas that one-year contracts be extended to vets like Wieters, Fister, Carter, etc.

    2 - Yes, I've heard of "picking your battles" and in fact said that IF Hahn's stat guys were anti-Garcia,
    would likely have decided not to battle Kenny and his scouts on this issue because they had no great arguments for non-tendering Garcia.  Or non-tendering Lawrie either.
    As to "imaginery conversations", somebody had to say something about Lawrie and Garcia. I would bet a goodly sum someone said, "we're trading Sale and Eaton, Lawrie and Garcia are still young, they won't cost a lot to try one more year, and we can still cut them if they really stink it up in ST."   That logic is too obvious and common sense not to have been articulated.

    I also find it hilarious that you have no problem INVENTING that Kenny was vigorously promoting Garcia because of 5 tools yet express such outrage at my supposed "imaginery conversations" ...For all we know Kenny could have been disgusted with Garcia's repeated failures....LMAO.  But he or anyone else who allegedly might have opposed Garcia had no reason to hold out (like you did) when there were really no good reasons to non-tender him or Lawrie.

    3- I re-ran my study on young hitters and will report the findings on that later.  Don't have time right now. Suffice to say, that the results when carefully re-examined and tested varied some, but not much from earlier ones.

    4- My statements about Garcia's early fluky Bat Avg. still stand.  The ONLY thing that has impressed me so far is his .250 ISO.  That will drop also but if he can hold it in 200 range, that's the power surge he needs to keep justifying his existence. 
       



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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by rmapasad on Tue May 02, 2017 3:22 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:DUH!!!!

    Like anybody is claiming a collective bullpen ERA of 1.00 for the entire year.
    BTW, the ERA for Jones, Robertson and Ynoa look sustainable.
    The only reliever that is really overacheing is Swarzak.  But he is totally replacable if this isn't his Neal Cotts/Cliff Polite year.
    Abreau and Frazier are starting to hit.  The White Sox need Cabrera and Anderson to come around.
    So in retrospect, there was no logical reason to think OUR White Sox would lose 95+.  But there was probably a 1 in 7 chance they would contend for the highly coveted AL Central Title despite trading off Sale and Eaton



    Let's talk reality here.  Sox's offense is terrible.  3rd from the bottom in the AL in OPS and that's with the Garcias and Davidson hitting out of their minds.  Fan Graphs projects the Sox to be ranked 30th in hitting by season's end even with Frazier and Cabrera aboard all year.  That projection makes sense too.

    Frazier isn't underperforming that much at .191 BA/730 OPS considering his .225/766 last year.  Cabrera is about 100 pts below his season projection as is Anderson.   But Avi Garcia is 280 pts, Leury is 150 pts and Davidson 200 pts. above projections.  Those projections are based on them being better than their historicals too.   So yeah, the Sox offense has room to fall even further and what happens if/when Frazier and Cabrera go midseason ?

    As to pitching the projections are for Holland, Gonzalez and Shields to start imploding soon. Rodon's return will help the staff some as will some inevitable rebound by Quintana, but that will be outweighed by the bullpen ultimately getting worse.  Once more, what happens when/if Quintana, Robertson and Jones get dealt midyear ?

    With these kind of realities in mind, it's a bit of a dilemna.  Of course, as fans it's encouraging to see that maybe Garcia, Davidson might be worth keeping, and Kahnle emerge as a possible Closer of the future.  But since this team is destined for less than 70 wins, trying to stretch for 80 is a useless and ultimately destructive exercise if the Sox fail to get something for Frazier, Cabrera,Robertson and Quintana and then complete a double whammy by having 10th draft pick in 2018 instead of 1st or 2nd.
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue May 02, 2017 4:29 pm

    WELL YOU ARE THE EXPERT IN PROJECTIONS


    AFTER ALL, NOBODY PROJECTS MORE THAN YOU.


    BTW, THE KARK CALLED FOR 80 WINS WHILE IN FULL REBUILDING MODE


    AND YOU STILL HAVEN'T ANSWERED THE QUESTION, WHICH IS WHY SUCH WE BEEN ENCOURAGED WHEN A MONTH AGO YOU CLAIMED THE MORE LOSES THE BETTER?


    OR ARE YOU FINALLY STARTING TO REALIZE MY POINT THAT REBUILDING DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN YOU SUCK OUT LOUD.  MY 80 WIN PREDICTION MEANS THEY ONLY SUCK A LITTLE BIT.  THE 76 WINS BY YOUR HEROS AT FAN GRAPHS MEANS THEY ONLY SUCK SOMEWHAT.  YOU WANT REALITY, THE REALITY IS OUR WHITE SOX WILL NEVER SUCK ENOUGH TO GET YOU THAT #1 DRAFT PICK.


    **********************


    That all said, let the KARK restate that all potential free agents and everybody 30 and older at the break are on the table.  and of course Quintana.  Not sure who the best hitting prospect in the minors is, but I hope Quintana has the value to get him.  Or at least one in the top 10 that is MLB ready.


    the one thing I will agree with is that the White Sox offense sucks and they need to convert their excess pitching into offense.  However, as long as they look like a reasonable contender, I don't do blatant salary dumps.
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue May 02, 2017 4:38 pm

    because they had no great arguments for non-tendering Garcia.  Or non-tendering Lawrie either.



    ********************************


    Now your making things up again.


    Lawrie was dumped because he was hurt, didn't look like he would contribute, didn't fit into the long terms plans, and would have been a total waste of time and money


    and yes, there was logic to dumping Garcia.  He sucked, looked like he always will suck.  so save $3mil and look at the next guy in line.  the logic was fine.  what went wrong was the assumption that he always will suck.  But even your stats said there was a 90% chance he'd continue to suck.  Just because another logical argument proved correct doesn't make my argument frivalous. 
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue May 02, 2017 4:40 pm

    I also find it hilarious that you have no problem INVENTING that Kenny was vigorously promoting Garcia because of 5 tools 



    *************************


    I HEARD THE HAWK SAY IT.  EVEN REPORTED IT THE DAY HE SAID IT


    PLUS I WAS INVENTING ANYTHING.


    I WAS MOCKING YOU
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by rmapasad on Tue May 02, 2017 8:01 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:because they had no great arguments for non-tendering Garcia.  Or non-tendering Lawrie either.



    ********************************


    Now your making things up again.


    Lawrie was dumped because he was hurt, didn't look like he would contribute, didn't fit into the long terms plans, and would have been a total waste of time and money


    and yes, there was logic to dumping Garcia.  He sucked, looked like he always will suck.  so save $3mil and look at the next guy in line.  the logic was fine.  what went wrong was the assumption that he always will suck.  But even your stats said there was a 90% chance he'd continue to suck.  Just because another logical argument proved correct doesn't make my argument frivalous. 

    I never said the argument that Garcia or Lawrie would suck again was frivolous. It was very logical based on their recent histories.  But that argument was basically irrelevant under the circumstances. He and Lawrie sucking again wasn't going to ruin the Sox's playoff chances which had already been effectively killed by the Sale/Eaton deals.  Nor were they big financial risks.  Even if both made Opening Day, $ 3mil per is relative peanuts in today's baseball world.   Plus, the Sox weren't even irrevocably committed to the $ 3 mil. They could do the same thing they did to Tank a couple years earlier, cut them in ST and save 3/4 of the salary.

    Even though the chances were slim, they were young enough to rise from the ashes and finally fulfill the potential that had once made them BA Top 100 prospects.   It's happened before. If they do, it's a big win.  If they don't, it's a tiny risk, particularly if they get beat out in Spring Training and Sox end up paying them only 1/4 of the $ 3 mil salary (as Lawrie found out).  Plus the Sox had low-cost backups (Saladino and Liriano/Ashce) to plug in if they decided to cut both Lawrie and Garcia before Opening Day.
    This was virtually a no-lose, all-win proposition. How does any logical GM not tender them ?  It was a no-brainer.
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by rmapasad on Tue May 02, 2017 8:13 pm

      YOU WANT REALITY, THE REALITY IS OUR WHITE SOX WILL NEVER SUCK ENOUGH TO GET YOU THAT #1 DRAFT PICK.

    Who knows.  On May 9, 2016 the Sox were 6 games up on the AL Central and people were proclaiming it a "different team". A good start can vanish in short order and like last year, there is an overabundance of April overperformers and not nearly as many underperformers.  Plus the Sox have no big stopper like Sale anymore.
    How many losses they rack up depends on how soon and how many vets they trade. 
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed May 03, 2017 12:59 pm

    I never said the argument that Garcia or Lawrie would suck again was frivolous. It was very logical based on their recent histories.  But that argument was basically irrelevant under the circumstances.


    ***********************************


    AND you wonder why I constantly accuse you of being a double talker ?!?@!@$#


    You are the one that proclaimed tendering these two was the ONLY logical argument.  a sane person reads that and also concludes the converse that all other argument must therefore be illogical.  A sane person would also consider an illogical argument and a frivolous argument to be synonomous in meaning.  Ditto your bogus claim that my argument was somehow irrelevant.


    In case you have forgotten, I am a CPA and we have standards on how to account for uncertainty.  Under your own admission, my position had at least an 80% chance of being correct.  this clearly meets the "more likely than not" standard.  So for you to infer that an argument that meets the highest standard is somehow frivolous just confirms to me that I am completely justified to question your intellectual integrity.


    BTW, by your latest stiff to star study, the argument to keep these two, AS PRESENTED BY YOU, WAS ONLY 10% and falls short of having reasonable basis, typically considered 25%.  so it is you that was being frivalous.


    and that is not to say Williams and Hahn were frivolous.  As a CPA, I understand how businesses make decision.  I very strongly doubt that Sox mgmt just threw there hands up and said WTF, nobody else to play and nothing to lose.  any sane Sox fan can easily see that Sox brass had a much higher opinion than you.


    so the real issue is you and your arrogance.  Proclaiming stuff in absolute terms when sane and reasonable people can see that while there was reasonable basis to tender Garcia, no freaking way in hell the whole thing went down in the absolutely ridiculous manner you described
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Wed May 03, 2017 1:05 pm

    rmapasad wrote:  YOU WANT REALITY, THE REALITY IS OUR WHITE SOX WILL NEVER SUCK ENOUGH TO GET YOU THAT #1 DRAFT PICK.

    Who knows.  On May 9, 2016 the Sox were 6 games up on the AL Central and people were proclaiming it a "different team". A good start can vanish in short order and like last year, there is an overabundance of April overperformers and not nearly as many underperformers.  Plus the Sox have no big stopper like Sale anymore.
    How many losses they rack up depends on how soon and how many vets they trade. 



    I was completely unaware the White Sox are drafting #1 this year.


    I'm also puzzled how in one post you claim all these overperforming vets are on the verge of reverting to form, which means sucking for most of them, but here you imply they'd still be better than the Moncada's and Kopech's that would probably replace them.


    Quick, who do you think will perform better in the 2nd half?  Moncada or Saladino?  One word answer please
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by rmapasad on Wed May 03, 2017 6:28 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:I never said the argument that Garcia or Lawrie would suck again was frivolous. It was very logical based on their recent histories.  But that argument was basically irrelevant under the circumstances.


    ***********************************


    ]size=18]AND you wonder why I constantly accuse you of being a double talker ?!?@!@$#

    You are the one that proclaimed tendering these two was the ONLY logical argument.  a sane person reads that and also concludes the converse that all other argument must therefore be illogical.  A sane person would also consider an illogical argument and a frivolous argument to be synonomous in meaning.  Ditto your bogus claim that my argument was somehow irrelevant.
    In case you have forgotten, I am a CPA and we have standards on how to account for uncertainty.  Under your own admission, my position had at least an 80% chance of being correct.  this clearly meets the "more likely than not" standard.  So for you to infer that an argument that meets the highest standard is somehow frivolous just confirms to me that I am completely justified to question your intellectual integrity.
    [/size]
    And you wonder why people accuse you of poor reading comprehension !!!!    I said that expecting Garcia to stink again was logical.  But it wasn't  that "relevant" because it wouldn't hurt the Sox if he did.  There is no "double talk" or contradiction to those two statements.  All I said was that TENDERING him was perfectly logical.  If you want to infer I was calling you "frivolous" that is your problem and a completely inaccurate way to twist what I said.   We spent a month debating and I understood your arguments.  Yes, there might have been some downsides to tendering him (spending $ 3 mil, precluding others' chances) , and I addressed them at the time so that means I didn't treat them as "frivolous".[I recall saying that if someone outplayed Garcia in ST, then cut his ass before April 1st. Except no one did.
    .  
    [/size]


    and that is not to say Williams and Hahn were frivolous.  As a CPA, I understand how businesses make decision.  I very strongly doubt that Sox mgmt just threw there hands up and said WTF, nobody else to play and nothing to lose.  any sane Sox fan can easily see that Sox brass had a much higher opinion than you.  [size=13]so the real issue is you and your arrogance.  Proclaiming stuff in absolute terms when sane and reasonable people can see that while there was reasonable basis to tender Garcia, no freaking way in hell the whole thing went down in the absolutely ridiculous manner you described[/size]
    As a business owner whose own dollars are on the line, damn well understand  "how business decisions are made".  In my world, business decisions are weighed on risks v. benefits not wild hairs up someone's ass.
    When Garcia was mentioned, some FO people may have reacted like Kent Dorfman's mug had just flashed on the screen. Who was buying the "5 tools" nonsense after three years of failure ?  Sure, Kenny could have pulled rank " I like Garcia, he stays". But why risk looking foolish to his staff FOUR times in a row ?  Bosses still want the respect of their staffs.  Do you really think he justified this by "I KNOW Garcia will be a good player this year" ?   Why not go the BUSINESS route of cost/benefit ? "look, we aren't going to win this year, we got Liriano as his competition, let's give Avi one more shot. If he really stinks in  ST, we can cut him. Why cut him now and see him suddenly spring to life on another team."  That argument makes sense and you can get the group to readily agree to it.  Next case.
    Only Hawk thinks people will believe that tale about Kenny's "premonition" on Garcia.
    Lawrie situation further re-inforces how the Sox used cost/benefit. Not only did he stink last year but looked jake-ish with unverifiable injuries. Yet the Sox still tendered him despite getting their 2bman of the future, Moncada.   Why ?  Someone was needed to keep the 2b seat warm and they had an "out" with Lawrie  2017" ?   Which they used in a flash.  It's like someone in FO was spring-loaded to use that option at the first sign of trouble.


     





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    Deplorable Mark
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu May 04, 2017 5:32 pm

    You are beyond delusional
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    rmapasad
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by rmapasad on Fri May 05, 2017 12:03 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:You are beyond delusional


    No delusion here. Actions speak louder than words.  Sox tendered both Lawrie and Garcia who both stunk in 2016. Who in the front office still had real "faith" in them and what were they smoking ?  Point is: in 2017 no need to "believe".  All that was required were;
    1- some evidence the guy could be decent (both Lawrie and Garcia were BA top 100 prospects)   2- Guy is still young enough to bounce back 3- Low financial risks..
    NO ONE IN THE FRONT OFFICE NEEDED TO PREDICT SUCCESS FOR ANYONE THEY TENDERED or SIGNED. Just that they were sensible low-risk gambles.
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri May 05, 2017 12:33 pm

    When Garcia was mentioned, some FO people may have reacted like Kent Dorfman's mug had just flashed on the screen. Who was buying the "5 tools" nonsense after three years of failure ?  Sure, Kenny could have pulled rank " I like Garcia, he stays". But why risk looking foolish to his staff FOUR times in a row ?  Bosses still want the respect of their staffs.  Do you really think he justified this by "I KNOW Garcia will be a good player this year" ?   Why not go the BUSINESS route of cost/benefit ? "look, we aren't going to win this year, we got Liriano as his competition, let's give Avi one more shot. If he really stinks in  ST, we can cut him. Why cut him now and see him suddenly spring to life on another team."  That argument makes sense and you can get the group to readily agree to it.  Next case.


    *************************************************


    COMPLETE MADE UP BULLSHIT


    1) Falsely assumes a bunch of hardcore stat geeks are involved in the decision making process.  Yet these stat geeks rubber stamped tim anderson into the leadoff spot.  BTW, its not the front office, but the people in the field that would be providing Williams and Hahn input.  So another one of your fairy tales exposed.
    2) Falsely assumes Garcia is not a 5 tool guy.  The man is physically gifted.  anybody can see that.  A few weeks ago you called him a one tool showing you complete inability to scout beyond your calculator
    3)  Falsely assumes any advocating for Garcia looks foolish, then contradicts himself by claiming tendering Garcia was the only logical choice.  Baseball coaches love the challenge of turning gifted kids like Garcia around.  Which proves my point that you project instead of trying to understand
    4)  Pulls his Captain Obvious nonsense regarding cost/benefit.  Gee, I thought they flipped a coin.
    5)  Insists that any evaluation must have went exactly like he claims, when common sense tells you there is no way Roger's illogical and contradictory arguement would fly in a room full of reasonable people.  therefore, the decision to keep Garcia was based on something else.
    6) Roger's real argument is that we think Garcia is not very good but there is a 10% chance he might surprise us.  Besides, who cares we suck.  Who in their right mind is convinced by an argument that stupid.  Sane management would respond with something like: find a player with a 15% chance that will take $2mil or less.  I bet there were quite a few of them
    7) His Brett Lawrie crap is more invented bullshit.  Total apples and oranges.  Lawrie not only hit better in 2016, but was also more versitile defensively.  There was no question in tendering him because he not only covered 2b until Moncada was ready, but also covers 3B in case Frazier was traded.  He was expected to recover by spring, so that, not some retarded reasoning about who care we suck, was why Lawrie was tendered.
    8.)  Roger's 3 months of illogical nonsense and contradictory BS is the very definition of a wild hare.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by rmapasad on Fri May 05, 2017 4:02 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:
    2) Falsely assumes Garcia is not a 5 tool guy.  The man is physically gifted.  anybody can see that.  A few weeks ago you called him a one tool showing you complete inability to scout beyond your calculator
    TRUE definition of "5 tools" is "hit for average", "hit for power", etc. not just raw physical gifts.  Garcia hasn't hit for power or average. He hasn't fielded or run bases worth a shit either.  Maybe he will "hit for power" this year finally...

    3)  Falsely assumes any advocating for Garcia looks foolish, then contradicts himself by claiming tendering Garcia was the only logical choice.  Baseball coaches love the challenge of turning gifted kids like Garcia around.  Which proves my point that you project instead of trying to understand
    Coaches had three years to work with Garcia (same time they gave Tank then pulled the cord). You were screaming what a bust Garcia was all winter, and somehow the Sox FO doesn't know the same thing ? He got a minimal raise over last year.  Maybe Kenny still believes his 5 tools can finally be converted by coaches this year, but the rest of the crew needs more practicality.
    Which is -  "we tender him, and worst case, he screws up again so we blow $ 3 mil. Best case, he rebounds.  We don't have anyone else and it will cost an arm and leg to get someone better on the outside which is crazy since we're not contending this year." End of discussion.


    5)  Insists that any evaluation must have went exactly like he claims, when common sense tells you there is no way Roger's illogical and contradictory arguement would fly in a room full of reasonable people.  therefore, the decision to keep Garcia was based on something else.
    Want logic ? Why were the Sox willing to go with Soto and Narvaez as Catchers this year ?   Something you also screamed about.   Same reason they gave Lawrie and Garcia one more year.
    Team wasn't contending so go with under 30 stopgaps already in the org for cheap and hope maybe one or more might amount to something.  ..
      

    6) Roger's real argument is that we think Garcia is not very good but there is a 10% chance he might surprise us.  Besides, who cares we suck.  Who in their right mind is convinced by an argument that stupid.  Sane management would respond with something like: find a player with a 15% chance that will take $2mil or less.  I bet there were quite a few of them>
    Maybe that's what they hoped for in Rymer Liriano. Sox knew they had the option to cut Garcia before Opening Day and save $ 2 mil if Liriano kicks his ass in ST. TENDERING IS ALMOST A NO-RISK DEAL !!!!..Even if they keep Garcia for full $ 3 mil, it's still relative peanuts for one more shot on a strong-bodied 26 year old who Kenny likes and wants to give one last try.  Why fight Kenny on this ? 

    7) His Brett Lawrie crap is more invented bullshit.  Total apples and oranges.  Lawrie not only hit better in 2016, but was also more versitile defensively.  There was no question in tendering him because he not only covered 2b until Moncada was ready, but also covers 3B in case Frazier was traded.  He was expected to recover by spring, so that, not some retarded reasoning about who care we suck, was why Lawrie was tendered.
    Yes, Lawrie had some things going for him, but Sox clearly weren't that enamored of him either. They cut his salary and then released him faster than shit runs through a goose to save $ 2.25 mil on his deal. Which again points out that the decision to tender doesn't always signal a real endorsement of a guy but is sometimes a practical way to keep a guy temporarily on board as long as he proves useful.  But that commitment can sometimes be quickly abandoned as it was with Lawrie.  


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    Re: First 20 games

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