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    Deplorable Mark
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    First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Thu Apr 27, 2017 12:01 pm

    Thru the first 20 games, the White Sox have allowed 2 or less runs in half the games played.  The White Sox are 9-1 in games where they have allowed 2 or less runs.


    Conversely, the White Sox have already been shut out 3 times this year and have scored 2 or less in 9 of their games.  The White Sox are 2-7 in games where they have scored two or less.


    So based on how the runs are distributed, I don't see any overachieving.  If anything, they probably should have at least another win based upon how the runs are distributed.


    Now that doesn't mean there is no over achieving.  Are the Garcia Twins and the bullpen for real?  Conversely, its assumed that Quintana and Abreau and Cabrera and Frazier will heat up to offset any cooiling down.


    I'd like to think that the 2017 White Sox will pleasantly surprise us this year.


    But than, I felt the same way 365 days ago and we all know how quickly the White sox turned to shit after releasing John Danks

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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by sox55 on Sat Apr 29, 2017 9:11 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Thru the first 20 games, the White Sox have allowed 2 or less runs in half the games played.  The White Sox are 9-1 in games where they have allowed 2 or less runs.


    Conversely, the White Sox have already been shut out 3 times this year and have scored 2 or less in 9 of their games.  The White Sox are 2-7 in games where they have scored two or less.


    So based on how the runs are distributed, I don't see any overachieving.  If anything, they probably should have at least another win based upon how the runs are distributed.


    Now that doesn't mean there is no over achieving.  Are the Garcia Twins and the bullpen for real?  Conversely, its assumed that Quintana and Abreau and Cabrera and Frazier will heat up to offset any cooiling down.


    I'd like to think that the 2017 White Sox will pleasantly surprise us this year.


    But than, I felt the same way 365 days ago and we all know how quickly the White sox turned to shit after releasing John Danks

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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Sat Apr 29, 2017 9:54 am

    Sorry John, but I don't your point

    Could you please elaborate for another thousand words.  And don't forget to include some invented statistics and imaginary conversations w/ Sox brass
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by sox55 on Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:49 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Sorry John, but I don't your point

    Could you please elaborate for another thousand words.  And don't forget to include some invented statistics and imaginary conversations w/ Sox brass

    Maybe Kevin needs to rename this forum Karkfest
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by sox55 on Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:52 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Sorry John, but I don't your point

    Could you please elaborate for another thousand words.  And don't forget to include some invented statistics and imaginary conversations w/ Sox brass


    The Sox were in 1st place on May 1,2016......How did that work out?
    The manager is better this year and SO far so is Avi Garcia..........For a team in a "rebuild" year, they are doing fine.

    See me on Memorial Day, THAT is the day where USUALLY you are able to separate contenders from pretenders.
    Enjoy the month!
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by rmapasad on Sun Apr 30, 2017 12:35 pm

    sox55 wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:Sorry John, but I don't your point

    Could you please elaborate for another thousand words.  And don't forget to include some invented statistics and imaginary conversations w/ Sox brass


    The Sox were in 1st place on May 1,2016......How did that work out?
    The manager is better this year and SO far so is Avi Garcia..........For a team in a "rebuild" year, they are doing fine.

    See me on Memorial Day, THAT is the day where USUALLY you are able to separate contenders from pretenders.
    Enjoy the month!
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by rmapasad on Sun Apr 30, 2017 12:58 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    sox55 wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:Sorry John, but I don't your point

    Could you please elaborate for another thousand words.  And don't forget to include some invented statistics and imaginary conversations w/ Sox brass


    The Sox were in 1st place on May 1,2016......How did that work out?
    The manager is better this year and SO far so is Avi Garcia..........For a team in a "rebuild" year, they are doing fine.

    See me on Memorial Day, THAT is the day where USUALLY you are able to separate contenders from pretenders.
    Enjoy the month!


    Yeah, last year  Sox were up by 6 games on May 9th, but down 2 by Memorial Day.   At least they didn't string fans along into late summer like some prior years.  Obviously, any success this year is gravy since no real expectations and hopefully wins will keep being driven by guys who will be around for a while.
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Sun Apr 30, 2017 7:04 pm

    What about draft picks!?!!?!?!?
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Sun Apr 30, 2017 7:04 pm

    sox55 wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:Sorry John, but I don't your point

    Could you please elaborate for another thousand words.  And don't forget to include some invented statistics and imaginary conversations w/ Sox brass


    The Sox were in 1st place on May 1,2016......How did that work out?
    The manager is better this year and SO far so is Avi Garcia..........For a team in a "rebuild" year, they are doing fine.

    See me on Memorial Day, THAT is the day where USUALLY you are able to separate contenders from pretenders.
    Enjoy the month!

    THE CURSE OF CUTTING JOHN DANKS!!!!!!!!!
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Sun Apr 30, 2017 7:07 pm

    I the pregame, the star that opened this thread was sited

    Damn Mariners!!!!

    I was so looking forward to Monday morning bragging rights at the water cooler
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by rmapasad on Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:47 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:What about draft picks!?!!?!?!?
    First priority is for guys under the Sox's control for next 3-5 years to prove they are decent enough to be future contributers.
    If they don't then the next priority is to drop all pretense of contending and trade Quintana and upcoming free agents in June/July.  That will insure the Sox get good draft picks in 2018.

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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon May 01, 2017 7:45 am

    Sounds like the person who, two months ago, claimed the more losses the better is changing his tune.


    It must be the Avisail Garcia effect.


    BTW, didn't you once proclaim something like picks after #5 are a crapshoot?  Or something to that effect?


    ***************************


    As to your priorities, are you now saying that if Garcia and Davidson and the bullpen proof to be real and the White Sox find themselves with a winning record and are within 5 games of 1st by all-Star break, they should not trade the Q and the R and there 4 potential free agents?


    That's how I am reading it.  Is that how you intended people to interept?  Or you you care to re-phrase and clarify
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by alohafri on Mon May 01, 2017 8:09 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Sounds like the person who, two months ago, claimed the more losses the better is changing his tune.


    It must be the Avisail Garcia effect.


    BTW, didn't you once proclaim something like picks after #5 are a crapshoot?  Or something to that effect?


    ***************************


    As to your priorities, are you now saying that if Garcia and Davidson and the bullpen proof to be real and the White Sox find themselves with a winning record and are within 5 games of 1st by all-Star break, they should not trade the Q and the R and there 4 potential free agents?


    That's how I am reading it.  Is that how you intended people to interept?  Or you you care to re-phrase and clarify

    This April winning, much like last year's April winning, is smoke and mirrors. There is no way the Sox will be within 5 games by the All-Star break. If by some miracle they are, you stick to the plan and find trading partners. Value for our pieces should be pretty high if the Sox are that good.
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon May 01, 2017 10:36 am

    alohafri wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:Sounds like the person who, two months ago, claimed the more losses the better is changing his tune.


    It must be the Avisail Garcia effect.


    BTW, didn't you once proclaim something like picks after #5 are a crapshoot?  Or something to that effect?


    ***************************


    As to your priorities, are you now saying that if Garcia and Davidson and the bullpen proof to be real and the White Sox find themselves with a winning record and are within 5 games of 1st by all-Star break, they should not trade the Q and the R and there 4 potential free agents?


    That's how I am reading it.  Is that how you intended people to interept?  Or you you care to re-phrase and clarify

    This April winning, much like last year's April winning, is smoke and mirrors. There is no way the Sox will be within 5 games by the All-Star break. If by some miracle they are, you stick to the plan and find trading partners. Value for our pieces should be pretty high if the Sox are that good.



    1)  Is it really smoke and mirrors?  The one thing that was never really discussed was the White Sox bullpen.  David Robertson is back to being David Robertson.  Nate Jones has always expected to be this good.  The two surprises are Tommy Kahnle and Anthony Swarzak.  Kahnle has always thrown gas and now it looks like he has found the strike zone.  Now his current 19-1 K/BB ratio is probably not sustainable over an entire season, but I got a subway lunch saying his days of 2/1 or worse K/BB ratio days are no a thing of the past.  I think Kahnle is for real.  However, Swarzak appears to be a grizzled veteran having a career month.  Only the Lord knows if this is his Neal Cotts/Cliff Polite year.  Anyway, if this bullpen is for real, the White Sox can limit there opponents to a 6 inning game.  


    2)  Finding trading partners is easier said than done.  I believe the free agents are Cabrera, Frazier, Gonzalez and Swarzak, as well as Geo Soto and Mike Pelfrey.  Players that will be 30 and older by the All-Star break will be Abreau, Holland, Jennings, Jones, Robertson, Shields and Putnam.  And of course, a very valueable trading chip in Jose Quintana.  To quote John, I don't trade Quintana unless somebody over pays.  I would that applies to everybody I just listed except for Gonzalez and Shields.  These two just scream fluke.  Plus replacing them with Kopech and company is probably a case of having your cake and Edith too.


    3)  I suspect the real issue is what will the Q and the R as well as some others be worth in 9 1/2 weeks.  Two things the KARK doesn't do.  1) Make a rent a player trade unless its incredibly lopsided in the White Sox favor, ie Ynoa for Wieter.  2)  Just start dumping people like the White Sox did in 1998 when they traded Baines for Juan Bautisa who never made the majors.  


    4)  In conclusion, the 2017 playoff chances, in my book, ride on whether or not Renteria can be a chess master with the bullpen.  There is a reason the phrase WHIZ KIDS exists.  so lets just hope that OUR WHITE SOX can give us enjoyable and WINNING baseball in May and June.  the big decisions probably don't need to be made until July
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by alohafri on Mon May 01, 2017 11:04 am

    Two things the KARK doesn't do.  1) Make a rent a player trade unless its incredibly lopsided in the White Sox favor, ie Ynoa for Wieter.  2)  Just start dumping people like the White Sox did in 1998 when they traded Baines for Juan Bautisa who never made the majors.


    Two things Kenny specializes in. I don't mind "dumping" players that are not part of the long term. Do you mean 1988? Because not only was Baines not on the Sox in 1998, but his best days were long behind him in 1998.
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon May 01, 2017 1:03 pm

    July 29, 1997: Traded by the Chicago White Sox to the Baltimore Orioles for a player to be named later. The Baltimore Orioles sent Juan Bautista (minors) (August 18, 1997) to the Chicago White Sox to complete the trade.






    MISSED IT BY A YEAR


    BUT I WAS A LOT CLOSER THAN YOUR DELIBERATE DISAGREEMENT


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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon May 01, 2017 1:12 pm

    I don't mind "dumping" players that are not part of the long term. 


    *********************************************************


    You do realize that there is a difference between dumping and trading dontcha?!?!?!


    For example, I don't DUMP Melkey Cabrera in a manner similiar to the way OUR WHITE SOX dumped Harold Baines on 7/29/1997.


    However, I gladly trade Melkey Cabrera if the White Sox can get a legitimate prospect in return.


    A DUMP only makes sense if OUR WHITE SOX turn to crap in the next 9 1/2 weeks..


    That said, I would need to see the details b4 giving a thumbs up or thumbs down to a WHITE FLAG trade.
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by alohafri on Mon May 01, 2017 1:32 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:I don't mind "dumping" players that are not part of the long term. 


    *********************************************************


    You do realize that there is a difference between dumping and trading dontcha?!?!?!


    For example, I don't DUMP Melkey Cabrera in a manner similiar to the way OUR WHITE SOX dumped Harold Baines on 7/29/1997.


    However, I gladly trade Melkey Cabrera if the White Sox can get a legitimate prospect in return.


    A DUMP only makes sense if OUR WHITE SOX turn to crap in the next 9 1/2 weeks..


    That said, I would need to see the details b4 giving a thumbs up or thumbs down to a WHITE FLAG trade.

    Maybe the Sox didn't need any mentors. I'm sure you would be in favor of DUMPING Geo Soto...both of them.
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon May 01, 2017 2:10 pm

    YOU JUST CAN'T HANDLE THE KARK BEING CORRECT, CAN YOU....


    PS, I DUMP GEO SOTO THIS JULY IF ZACH COLLINS IS DEEMED READY
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by rmapasad on Mon May 01, 2017 2:38 pm

    ***************************
    As to your priorities, are you now saying that if Garcia and Davidson and the bullpen proof to be real and the White Sox find themselves with a winning record and are within 5 games of 1st by all-Star break, they should not trade the Q and the R and there 4 potential free agents?
    That's how I am reading it.  Is that how you intended people to interept?  Or you you care to re-phrase and clarify

    While the April underperformers (Frazier, Cabrera, Anderson, Quintana) will bounce back some in May/June they are outnumbered by April overperformers (the Garcias, Davidson, Narvaez, Holland, Shields, Schwarzak, Gonzalez, Ynoa, Jones) who will likely start coming back to earth. 
    Sox could be about 6-8 games back by All Star break which would be better than expected, but not good enough to hold to vets who should be traded for prospects. 






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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by alohafri on Mon May 01, 2017 2:54 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:YOU JUST CAN'T HANDLE THE KARK BEING CORRECT, CAN YOU....


    PS, I DUMP GEO SOTO THIS JULY IF ZACH COLLINS IS DEEMED READY

    HarOLD Baines was 106. He was at the point of diminishing returns. You are dealing with a lot of "what ifs". I guarandamntee that the Sox will be a shell of their April selves by the All-Star break.


    For someone like Melky, you will probably get a minor league filler or a can't miss prospect who missed. No one is going to give you a top of the line prospect for a thirty-three year old outfielder who was suspended for PEDs. Not unless Kenny goes to work for another team.
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon May 01, 2017 3:10 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    ***************************
    As to your priorities, are you now saying that if Garcia and Davidson and the bullpen proof to be real and the White Sox find themselves with a winning record and are within 5 games of 1st by all-Star break, they should not trade the Q and the R and there 4 potential free agents?
    That's how I am reading it.  Is that how you intended people to interept?  Or you you care to re-phrase and clarify

    While the April underperformers (Frazier, Cabrera, Anderson, Quintana) will bounce back some in May/June they are outnumbered by April overperformers (the Garcias, Davidson, Narvaez, Holland, Shields, Schwarzak, Gonzalez, Ynoa, Jones) who will likely start coming back to earth. 
    Sox could be about 6-8 games back by All Star break which would be better than expected, but not good enough to hold to vets who should be traded for prospects. 






    .



    You really didn't answer the question.  Which I find kind of odd.  You spent all spring lecturing about taking longshots because sometimes they do come true.  Yet you appear to be completely ignoring the possibility of a 2017 White Sox longshot coming true.  Not to mentioned you absolutely refuse to ever acknowledge when you poorly word something.
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon May 01, 2017 3:32 pm

    alohafri wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:YOU JUST CAN'T HANDLE THE KARK BEING CORRECT, CAN YOU....


    PS, I DUMP GEO SOTO THIS JULY IF ZACH COLLINS IS DEEMED READY

    HarOLD Baines was 106. He was at the point of diminishing returns. You are dealing with a lot of "what ifs". I guarandamntee that the Sox will be a shell of their April selves by the All-Star break.


    For someone like Melky, you will probably get a minor league filler or a can't miss prospect who missed. No one is going to give you a top of the line prospect for a thirty-three year old outfielder who was suspended for PEDs. Not unless Kenny goes to work for another team.



    Harold Baines had an OPS of 819 the year after the midseason dump and over 900 the year after that

    but why let the facts get in the way of your deliberate disagreement

    As for what ifs, you are the one that sided with the Californian about taking long shots.

    BTW, I didn't necessarily disagree with taking longshots.  More like I didn't believe his imaginary conversations.  Is there any proof that Kenny Williams pulled rank on Rick Hahn concerning Avisail Garcia?  And if that actually happened, doesn't that  prove your little buddy completely wrong regarding his ridiculous claim about what the only logical option was?  I'm sure you having the reading comprehension to figure out that  under Roger's narrative, if not for Williams, Garcia would have been non tendered by Hahn.

    Speaking of reading comprehension, the point isn't whether or not the White Sox find themselves in contention by the Break.  Its what if they do?  the answer is easy if they are 10 under and 15 out.  Not so easy if they are a game or 3 above 500 and the rest of the division sucks making winning the AL Central a possibility.  this would directly relate to Quintana and Robertson
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by rmapasad on Mon May 01, 2017 4:35 pm

    .[/quote]
    You really didn't answer the question.  Which I find kind of odd.  You spent all spring lecturing about taking longshots because sometimes they do come true.  Yet you appear to be completely ignoring the possibility of a 2017 White Sox longshot coming true.  Not to mentioned you absolutely refuse to ever acknowledge when you poorly word something.[/quote]


    By overperformers like Garcia and Davidson "coming back to earth" didn't necessarily mean they'd go back to being busts again.  But obviously they'll come off their current 950-1050 OPS levels.  If they end up 750-800 performers that's fine.  Sox have been paying Cabrera $ 14 mil per for those kind of OPS's so if Davidson and/or Garcia can do it for $ 4-7 mil per for next few years, they've earned their keep.
    Biggest overperformance so far is like last April -pitching.  Sox lead MAJORS in ERA at 3.11.  That's just insane considering no Chris Sale and Quintana with a 5.00 + ERA.   It's guys like Gonzalez, Holland, Shields, Schwarzak pitching out of their gords like Latos did last April.  ERA will start going up soon when you consider Sox pitching ranks only 13th in K's, 23rd in BB prevention and 18th in HR prevention.  
    That said, the emergence of Tommy Kahnle seems real and very encouraging.  Hopefully Robertson stays solid through first half and can be flipped midseason before he takes his usual 2nd half swoon.
     
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    Re: First 20 games

    Post by rmapasad on Mon May 01, 2017 5:39 pm

    BTW, I didn't necessarily disagree with taking longshots.  More like I didn't believe his imaginary conversations.  Is there any proof that Kenny Williams pulled rank on Rick Hahn concerning Avisail Garcia?  And if that actually happened, doesn't that  prove your little buddy completely wrong regarding his ridiculous claim about what the only logical option was?  I'm sure you having the reading comprehension to figure out that  under Roger's narrative, if not for Williams, Garcia would have been non tendered by Hahn.
    Speaking of reading comprehension, the point isn't whether or not the White Sox find themselves in contention by the Break.  Its what if they do?  the answer is easy if they are 10 under and 15 out.  Not so easy if they are a game or 3 above 500 and the rest of the division sucks making winning the AL Central a possibility.  this would directly relate to Quintana and Robertson  >>


    You didn't have a "problem taking longshots" yet you screamed all offseason about "rebuilding doesn't mean deliberately sucking", harangued us on why Sox should be getting proven guys like Wieters, Fister, Carter, etc, instead of wasting time on longshots like Garcia, and other "Quad A Crap"  .. LMAO.

    Then about a week ago, you claim that "making a move EVERYBODY on this board would have made had they suddenly found themselves the GM on December 1, 2016.  That is, non tendering his big fat Venezualan ass."   Don't recall anyone else on this Board saying they would have non-tendered Garcia
    and why would Hahn as GM done that if it wasn't logical ?  It was YOU who inferred Kenny forced his will over the others, not me.  
    "PS, Kenny always knew Garcia would be this good, Thank God for Kenny Williams ".

    Obviously neither of us know for sure what was going on in Kenny's or Hahn's minds, but simply inferring things from past conduct. Garcia is the kind of toolsy, athletic type that Kenny has liked.  Assuming Kenny was still a big Garcia fan and pushing him, my point was that Hahn had no real reason to oppose Kenny.  Sox weren't contending, Garcia's only 26, $ 3 mil isn't that much and if he stunk up Spring Training, Sox could cut him by March 31 and only pay him 1/4 of it..  So what LOGICAL reason did Hahn (or any other reasonable GM) have to not tender him ?

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