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    Tim Anderson Extended

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    Deplorable Mark
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    Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:50 am

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/chicago-white-sox


    After just 115 days of mlb service.


    If the KARK is reading this correctly, the White Sox can have Anderson for the next 8 years at $51mil total.  About half of that is in years 7 and 8 which are options.


    Typically, I don't believe in extending a guy until he can go to the arbitration table.  In Anderson's case, I believe that would be after the 2018 season.  


    That said, Anderson is a key to the future of this team.  so for the price of Adam Larouche, they just might be getting the Andre Dawson of shortstops for 10 cents on the dollar.


    **********************************


    Now on one hand, $26 mil guarenteed should set you, your kids, and your grandkids up for life if you settle for a quiet middle class suburban existance.  So that is hard to knock.  But its also very easy to see the millions and millions being left on the table.  
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by alohafri on Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:17 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/chicago-white-sox


    After just 115 days of mlb service.


    If the KARK is reading this correctly, the White Sox can have Anderson for the next 8 years at $51mil total.  About half of that is in years 7 and 8 which are options.


    Typically, I don't believe in extending a guy until he can go to the arbitration table.  In Anderson's case, I believe that would be after the 2018 season.  


    That said, Anderson is a key to the future of this team.  so for the price of Adam Larouche, they just might be getting the Andre Dawson of shortstops for 10 cents on the dollar.


    **********************************


    Now on one hand, $26 mil guarenteed should set you, your kids, and your grandkids up for life if you settle for a quiet middle class suburban existance.  So that is hard to knock.  But its also very easy to see the millions and millions being left on the table.  

    Rosebowl would say that this kid is doing himself a disservice, but I think it's good for both parties. If he works out, the Sox have him at a relative bargain. If he doesn't work out, he is making a ton of money for sucking.
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:02 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/chicago-white-sox

    Typically, I don't believe in extending a guy until he can go to the arbitration table.  In Anderson's case, I believe that would be after the 2018 season.  


    That said, Anderson is a key to the future of this team.  so for the price of Adam Larouche, they just might be getting the Andre Dawson of shortstops for 10 cents on the dollar.

    **********************************
    Now on one hand, $26 mil guarenteed should set you, your kids, and your grandkids up for life if you settle for a quiet middle class suburban existance.  So that is hard to knock.  But its also very easy to see the millions and millions being left on the table.  

    What, no sense of outrage like on the Eaton extension ?  
     At $ 26 million over 6 years this could be a decent bargain for the Sox provided that Anderson performs. Sox could have had two seasons of him at $ 550 K, then he could have qualified for arb as a Super Two in 2019.   If Anderson is an All Star through 2022, he makes $ 32-36 million during those 4 years through arb salaries plus is looking at $ 18-20 mil per yr. as a free agent in 2023 instead of the $ 12.5 mil per year option the Sox have on him for 2023-2024.   So Sox save $ 20-25 million.

    OTOH, if Anderson turns into Gordon Beckham, who also looked like the Golden Boy in his first 400 major league AB's,  he would make only $ 15-17 mil through arb from '19-'22 so the Sox get soaked for $ 10 million more than they should have paid.

    My personal belief is that neither party makes a windfall off this.. Anderson won't turn into Beckham but I think he will likely be the next Alexei Ramirez.  BTW, that's not a slam on Anderson because at his peak, Alexei was one of the top 5 SS's in the league.   They both have good range, speed on the basepaths and some power (although Anderson's probably got more).  They both have the same awful plate discipline too, which means OBP's in the crappy .315-.325 range. Nobody with that kind of OBP is an elite player.  Anderson's high strikeout rate will probably prevent him from becoming the .300 hitter he needs to be in order to achieve elite status. 
    All in all, he will likely be worth the $ 26 million the Sox will pay him but this does not look like a raging bargain for the Sox.



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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:49 am

    All in all, he will likely be worth the $ 26 million the Sox will pay him but this does not look like a raging bargain for the Sox.


    *******************************


    WHAT?!?!?!!?


    NO $20 MILLION SAVED?!?!?!?!?!?


    OOOPS, JUST SAW IT.


    SO I GUESS $20-25MIL IS NO LONGER A RAGING BARGAIN.


    MAYBE I SHOULD HAVE CLAIMED HOW STUPID IT WAS FOR THE WHITE SOX TO EXTEND HIM AFTER JUST 115 DAYS IN THE BIGS.


    *******************


    PS, I AGREE WITH ROSEBOWL.


    I THINK BOTH PARTIES DO THEMSELVES A DISSERVICE
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:38 pm

    NO $20 MILLION SAVED?!?!?!?!?!?
    OOOPS, JUST SAW IT.
    SO I GUESS $20-25MIL IS NO LONGER A RAGING BARGAIN.>>
    [size=13][size=16]This just shows YOU have the propensity to create disagreement where there is no reason.  I said $ 20-25 mil would be saved  IF Anderson is an "All Star throughout " the next 5-6 years and that would be a "decent bargain".[/size][/size]
    But went on to say that I expect him to be the next Alexei which is a good, but not elite player.  In which case "neither party makes a windfall off this."   Anderson, IMO, will be worth his contract and not one helluva lot more.
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Mar 21, 2017 1:28 pm

    rmapasad wrote:NO $20 MILLION SAVED?!?!?!?!?!?
    OOOPS, JUST SAW IT.
    SO I GUESS $20-25MIL IS NO LONGER A RAGING BARGAIN.>>
    [size=13][size=16]This just shows YOU have the propensity to create disagreement where there is no reason.  I said $ 20-25 mil would be saved  IF Anderson is an "All Star throughout " the next 5-6 years and that would be a "decent bargain".[/size][/size]
    But went on to say that I expect him to be the next Alexei which is a good, but not elite player.  In which case "neither party makes a windfall off this."   Anderson, IMO, will be worth his contract and not one helluva lot more.

    I HAVE THE PROPENSITY?!?!?!?!?!

    YOU ARE THE ONE CONSTANTLY POSTING OUT OF BOTH SIDES OF YOUR KEY BOARD.

    MAYBE IF YOU STOPPED OVER EXPLAINING THE OBVIOUS, I'D FIND LESS TO TAKE ISSUE WITH
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by Hawk Harrelson on Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:00 pm

    I have been posting on a Facebook Page all damned day that the only leverage a young player has for any sort of market value deal if the kid is really good is wait until your arbitration season and be in a strong bargaining postion.  I would much rather see Reinsdorf toss money at young players rather than washed up veterans named Adam.   WIN NOW WAS ONE OF THE DUMBEST STRATEGIES I HAVE EVER SEEN.  IT KEPT FAILING MISERABLY AND THEY KEPT AT IT.




    The Sox need a younger team to attract a younger audience.  The Sox need life.


    When I think of WIN NOW, I think of MURPH. 
    Murph is hardly the poster child of the modern Sox Fan they want to attract.
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Mar 24, 2017 1:14 pm

    Hawk Harrelson wrote:I have been posting on a Facebook Page all damned day that the only leverage a young player has for any sort of market value deal if the kid is really good is wait until your arbitration season and be in a strong bargaining postion.  I would much rather see Reinsdorf toss money at young players rather than washed up veterans named Adam.   WIN NOW WAS ONE OF THE DUMBEST STRATEGIES I HAVE EVER SEEN.  IT KEPT FAILING MISERABLY AND THEY KEPT AT IT.
    The Sox need a younger team to attract a younger audience.  The Sox need life.
    When I think of WIN NOW, I think of MURPH. 
    Murph is hardly the poster child of the modern Sox Fan they want to attract.


    Bob, agree a player gets more leverage if he waits a season or two longer.  Mike Trout waited until after his second full season to sign his extension and he got a good deal from them - $ 16 mil last year, $ 18 mil this year, then $33 mil per year from '18-'20. 

    Sox obviously like to extend guys real early.  Started with Danks and Floyd then Sale, Quintana and Eaton. It's worked out well financially for Sox but not the players.   They all would have made out better waiting at least a year more.

    But IMO, Anderson's agent made the right call by signing now.  Sure he wasn't looking at it like us stat geeks do, but Anderson snuck a lot of his batted balls through holes last year and may not get as lucky this season.  He needs a higher Bat Avg. to offset his total lack of walks, but his high K rate will make it tough for him to hit .290+... His profile looks like Alexei Ramirez (good range in the field, decent power for SS, good speed, zero plate discipline).   Alexei got $ 38 million in his 8 years with the Sox. Anderson will get $ 51 million in next 8 years if the Sox pick up his options.  Adjusting for inflation, that looks about right, so I don't think either party took much advantage of the other in this deal.
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:33 pm

    LMAO!!!!!!!

    In 4 or 5 years, Anderson will be kicking himself in the ass that he signed this deal

    The new ALexei my black ass

    Look up Andre Dawson 1980.  This raw hitting numbers are Anderson's peak

    Again, you will be proven wrong thank to sloppy sampling.  ALexei was 28 when he started, he never got the age 26 jump you keep claiming happens.

    Anderson will join 2 other White Sox SS with a last name in the A and Sox fans will foerever debate which of the 3 where the best
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by alohafri on Sat Mar 25, 2017 12:47 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:LMAO!!!!!!!

    In 4 or 5 years, Anderson will be kicking himself in the ass that he signed this deal(.)

    The new ALexei (Alexei) my black ass(.)

    Look up Andre Dawson 1980.  This raw hitting numbers are Anderson's peak(.)

    Again, you will be proven wrong thank to sloppy sampling.  ALexei (Alexei) was 28 when he started, he never got the age 26 jump you keep claiming happens.

    Anderson will join 2 other White Sox SS with a last name in the A and Sox fans will foerever(forever) debate which of the 3 where (were) the best(.)
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by rmapasad on Sat Mar 25, 2017 3:25 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:LMAO!!!!!!!
    In 4 or 5 years, Anderson will be kicking himself in the ass that he signed this deal
    The new ALexei my black ass
    Look up Andre Dawson 1980.  This raw hitting numbers are Anderson's peak
    Again, you will be proven wrong thank to sloppy sampling.  ALexei was 28 when he started, he never got the age 26 jump you keep claiming happens.
    Anderson will join 2 other White Sox SS with a last name in the A and Sox fans will foerever debate which of the 3 where the best

    "Again", I will proven wrong ?  Wasn't proven wrong about early optimism about Eaton or pessimism
    about Garcia, Gillaspie, or Viciedo before it was clear how they'd turn out.
    OK, big difference in ages when Alexei and Anderson began with the Sox.  So what ? It doesn't change their similarities. Speed, good fielding range, some power, quick hands, piss poor plate discipline.  Maybe Anderson matures in baseball skills but no signs so far. ZERO walks in 46 PA's this spring.


    Comparing him to Dawson is offbase, IMO.  Dawson didn't walk much, but more (6%) than Anderson (3%) in his rookie season.  Plus Dawson had much more power and struck out a lot less (16%) than Anderson (27%) as a rookie. 
    Not saying TA will be a bust.  He's got talent for sure.  But for you to be comping him to Hall of Famers is an awfully big stretch.  Aparicio had less power but he walked more (8%) and had a microscopic K rate (8%).  He was a magician with the glove and not as error prone as Anderson. Luis had good baseball sense that Anderson hasn't shown yet.
    Anderson's going to have to cut down on the K's, draw more BB's. Speed is one of his biggest strengths but he can't use it if he doesn't get on base enough.  Plus cut down on the fielding errors.  Those things can happen and if so, he could regret giving the Sox relatively inexpensive options on the first couple years of his would-be free agency.  But I sorta doubt it.
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Sat Mar 25, 2017 8:28 pm

    if so, he could regret giving the Sox relatively inexpensive options on the first couple years of his would-be free agency.  But I sorta doubt it.


    *************************


    Time will tell


    And the KARK has the memory of an elephnat
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by alohafri on Sun Mar 26, 2017 1:04 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:if so, he could regret giving the Sox relatively inexpensive options on the first couple years of his would-be free agency.  But I sorta doubt it.


    *************************


    Time will tell(.)


    And the KARK has the memory of an elephnat (elephant.)
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Sun Mar 26, 2017 1:27 pm

    It figures the board RINO would notice that elephant was misspelled.

    LMAO!!!!
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by alohafri on Sun Mar 26, 2017 1:52 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:It figures the board RINO would notice that elephant was misspelled.

    LMAO!!!!

    It figures that you wouldn't.  Sleep
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by Cream1953 on Sun Mar 26, 2017 3:29 pm

    Sox obviously like to extend guys real early.  Started with Danks and Floyd then Sale, Quintana and Eaton


    *******************************************************************************


    Not so sure about this Roger. It might have started with the 2010 3 year extension of the outstanding Mark fucking Teahen before this piece of shit had ever stepped up to the plate for an official at bat. STILL my favorite White Sox signing of all time! This burst of genius netted the White Sox a total of 84 hits before all the dust had settled.
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by rmapasad on Sun Mar 26, 2017 4:28 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:if so, he could regret giving the Sox relatively inexpensive options on the first couple years of his would-be free agency.  But I sorta doubt it.

    Time will tell


    And the KARK has the memory of an elephnat

    Anderson has a floor . It's his defense.  As you know a SS whose defense was as good as TA's last year will always survive as long as his offense is semi-decent.  Anderson has the tools to be semi-decent on offense - quick bat, some power and speed to steal bases.

    But there's also a ceiling to how high he can go and that's his incredibly bad plate discipline.
    It's historically bad - his .110 K/BB ratio is the worst plate discipline in the last 75 years of any rookie SS with over 350 PA's...Just to show how far he has to go, the average career K/BB for Hall of Fame caliber SS's is .890 and the lowest is Derek Jeter at .600...  In fact, no SS has had a good  career with a K/BB lower than .400 (Valentin .440, Alexei .400).  Anderson has a bit of a hill to climb to get to Alexei's .400 but he's got to scale Pike's Peak to get to Jeter and Mount Everest to get to the "average HOF"  SS at .890.   

    Anderson has shown signs he can bring down his K rate, as he did in last couple months of 2016 and has in Spring Training.  But he also needs to find a cure to his allergy to walks.
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by rmapasad on Sun Mar 26, 2017 4:33 pm

    Deplorable Mark wrote:It figures the board RINO would notice that elephant was misspelled.

    LMAO!!!!

    Yeah, none of us noticed but Kevin.   Very Happy Very Happy  Especially when you used this size font.
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by rmapasad on Sun Mar 26, 2017 5:17 pm

    Cream1953 wrote:Sox obviously like to extend guys real early.  Started with Danks and Floyd then Sale, Quintana and Eaton


    *******************************************************************************


    Not so sure about this Roger. It might have started with the 2010 3 year extension of the outstanding Mark fucking Teahen before this piece of shit had ever stepped up to the plate for an official at bat. STILL my favorite White Sox signing of all time! This burst of genius netted the White Sox a total of 84 hits before all the dust had settled.


    Had forgotten about that guy.  Yes, there was NO fucking excuse for that extension.  This was the ultimate in wishful, back-asswards thinking and total incompetence .  Sox somehow believed Teahen would IMPROVE in his  age 29-31 seasons with the Sox even though he hadn't gotten a lick better in any of the typical "improve" seasons from age 26-28.  As if the Royals' willingness to take Josh Fields and Chris Getz off the Sox hands weren't clue enough already.
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Sun Mar 26, 2017 7:27 pm

    Roger &  Cream

    I believe the Sox tried to pull this stunt on Buehrle. 

    Rosebowl got the story from Buehrle's Dad at one of the first Nomadsfests

    I recall this being around 2003
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Sun Mar 26, 2017 7:37 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:if so, he could regret giving the Sox relatively inexpensive options on the first couple years of his would-be free agency.  But I sorta doubt it.

    Time will tell


    And the KARK has the memory of an elephnat

    Anderson has a floor . It's his defense.  As you know a SS whose defense was as good as TA's last year will always survive as long as his offense is semi-decent.  Anderson has the tools to be semi-decent on offense - quick bat, some power and speed to steal bases.

    But there's also a ceiling to how high he can go and that's his incredibly bad plate discipline.
    It's historically bad - his .110 K/BB ratio is the worst plate discipline in the last 75 years of any rookie SS with over 350 PA's...Just to show how far he has to go, the average career K/BB for Hall of Fame caliber SS's is .890 and the lowest is Derek Jeter at .600...  In fact, no SS has had a good  career with a K/BB lower than .400 (Valentin .440, Alexei .400).  Anderson has a bit of a hill to climb to get to Alexei's .400 but he's got to scale Pike's Peak to get to Jeter and Mount Everest to get to the "average HOF"  SS at .890.   

    Anderson has shown signs he can bring down his K rate, as he did in last couple months of 2016 and has in Spring Training.  But he also needs to find a cure to his allergy to walks.

    His ceiling is the raw totals of Andre Dawson 1980.

    Anderson will be an extra base machine for the next 8 years.

    In a couple years, Anderson is going to be kicking himself.

    Come 2020, it should be obvious who had the better instincts on this one
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by rmapasad on Mon Mar 27, 2017 8:02 pm

    <Anderson will be an extra base machine for the next 8 years.
    In a couple years, Anderson is going to be kicking himself.
    Come 2020, it should be obvious who had the better instincts on this one >>


    [size=13]Anderson is still developing so none of us knows what he'll ultimately turn into. What is known for sure is that TA's power has been a lot less than Dawson's from ages 20-23 and TA's strikeouts have been a lot higher.
    In projecting a player, one has to account for the strengths and weaknesses he's already shown. Sure, Anderson could have a mid-20's power spike and that might push him closer to Dawson 1980. But I see it unlikely that TA will suddenly cut his K rate in half. If he could do that, then yeah it's more realistic to think of him as a .300 hitter.






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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by alohafri on Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:25 pm

    rmapasad wrote:<<His ceiling is the raw totals of Andre Dawson 1980.
    Anderson will be an extra base machine for the next 8 years.
    In a couple years, Anderson is going to be kicking himself.
    Come 2020, it should be obvious who had the better instincts on this one >>


    Anderson is still developing so none of us knows what he'll ultimately turn into.  What is known for sure is that TA's power has been a lot less than Dawson's from ages 20-23 and TA's strikeouts have been a lot higher.  
    In projecting a player, one has to account for the strengths and weaknesses he's already shown.  Sure, Anderson could have a mid-20's power spike and that might push him closer to Dawson 1980. But I see it unlikely that TA will suddenly cut his K rate in half. If he could do that, then yeah it's more realistic to think of him as a .300 hitter.







    Right now he looks like Alexei with speed.
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:13 pm

    alohafri wrote:
    rmapasad wrote:<Anderson will be an extra base machine for the next 8 years.
    In a couple years, Anderson is going to be kicking himself.
    Come 2020, it should be obvious who had the better instincts on this one >>


    Anderson is still developing so none of us knows what he'll ultimately turn into.  What is known for sure is that TA's power has been a lot less than Dawson's from ages 20-23 and TA's strikeouts have been a lot higher.  
    In projecting a player, one has to account for the strengths and weaknesses he's already shown.  Sure, Anderson could have a mid-20's power spike and that might push him closer to Dawson 1980. But I see it unlikely that TA will suddenly cut his K rate in half. If he could do that, then yeah it's more realistic to think of him as a .300 hitter.







    Right now he looks like Alexei with speed.



    Like I said,time will tell


    BTW Age 23 batting line Dawson 253/299/442 Anderson 283/306/432, almost identical


    While its true Dawson flew thru the minors, the 1980 line I am siting, his age 25 line 308/358/492, is not Dawson's peak.


    And to claim he looks like Alexei Ramirez with speed...


    Ramirez rookie year, 290/317/475 was 26 (allegedly).  Ramirez OPS peaked as a rookie.  His next best year was 282/313/431 at age 28.  Almost identical to Anderson as a rookie.  I would consider Anderson to be a mild disappointment if he matched Ramirez first 8 years


    OK, maybe the 358 OBP might be overly optimistic, but the 492 might be a little pessimistic.  My gut tells me Anderson should slug over 500 in his prime.  That makes his age 27 line 295/340/510.  OPS 850, the same as Dawson at age 25
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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:27 pm


    Like I said,time will tell
    BTW Age 23 batting line Dawson 253/299/442 Anderson 283/306/432, almost identical
    While its true Dawson flew thru the minors, the 1980 line I am siting, his age 25 line 308/358/492, is not Dawson's peak.
    And to claim he looks like Alexei Ramirez with speed...
    Ramirez rookie year, 290/317/475 was 26 (allegedly).  Ramirez OPS peaked as a rookie.  His next best year was 282/313/431 at age 28.  Almost identical to Anderson as a rookie.  I would consider Anderson to be a mild disappointment if he matched Ramirez first 8 years
    OK, maybe the 358 OBP might be overly optimistic, but the 492 might be a little pessimistic.  My gut tells me Anderson should slug over 500 in his prime.  That makes his age 27 line 295/340/510.  OPS 850, the same as Dawson at age 25

    You can use raw OPS all you want, but the skills embedded in OPS are far more meaningful when it comes to predicting.  Like Branch Rickey's power stat (Slug- BA) which Bill James renamed to ISO.  In Dawson's case he had 200-300 ISO's in the minors and 192 his first year in the majors. Finished his career at 203.

    Anderson's ISO's were 105-172 in the minors, and 149 his first year in the majors.  He's got a long ways to go to match Dawson's power. Ditto the Discipline (OBP-BA).  Dawson's was 44 pts. v. Anderson's sickly 23 in their rookie years.

    Anderson's .283 BA was what made him look so good, but it was based on a lucky and totally unsustainable 38% hits v. balls in play rate. Ty Cobb is only player in baseball history to ever have finished with a 38% hit v. BIP rate..  The age 23 season you cite for Dawson, he got very unlucky in hitting only .253 because a mere 28% of his hit balls went for hits.

    Once defenses learn how to position Anderson better, TA's BIP hit rate will drop.  To compensate for that , TA will have to lower his K rate. Can't get hits when you don't put balls in play. No player in baseball history who's finished his career over .300 has had more than a 17% K rate. Anderson was at 27% K rate last year.   Dawson's rookie K rate was 16%.

    As I said before, the comp to Dawson looks offbase.  Not only did Anderson not have Dawson's power from Day 1, Andre had much better strikeout avoidance.  Even though like Anderson, Dawson didn't walk much, Andre walked TWICE as much as TA did. 

    Bottom line - you yourself said it in another post  "Seems to me, the best hitters show it early".  Dawson sure did.  He showed he had the skills to be premier.  Your expectations of Anderson will only come true if he makes MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS in key skills like power and plate discipline.  

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    Re: Tim Anderson Extended

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      Current date/time is Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:48 pm