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    Soxillinirob
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    Prediction

    Post by Soxillinirob on Mon Nov 07, 2016 6:34 pm

    Realizing of course that this election can go either way, I'll make a prediction:

    Clinton 340 electorals.  That means I think she takes FL, NC, Nev, all of the blue wall, and even Ohio in a very close squeaker.  She'll win popular vote by between 5.25% and 5.5%.

    Potential surprises:
    Pennsylvania and Michigan super close or potentially go to Trump.
    Arizona super close and potentially goes to HRC.
    Georgia goes Trump, but much closer than in the past.
    Texas goes to Trump but begins showing signs of turning purple.

    My hunch is that HRC turnout machine translates to an extra 1 to 1.5% in national polling and helps get her over electoral hump in a close state or two, such as Michigan or Penn.  Also believe that most Trump voters are loud and proud and that a lot of the undecideds are folks that want to vote for Clinton but are embarrassed to say it out loud.  I know there's a group that believes the same applies to Trump voters.  That's fine and I don't disagree, but I think there are more HRC such hidden votes, i.e. wives that claim to support Trump but vote HRC in the booth. 

    Obviously, I could be very wrong, and I'm, at best, only cautiously optimistic.
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Shooters Buffet on Mon Nov 07, 2016 6:51 pm

    Amateur Hour!!


    Have you seen the Washington Post Poll now has Clinton WINNING after saying trump was ahead the entire time??


    Have you begun to feel you were sucked in hook, line and sinker???


    THE MEDIA NEEDS TO MAKE IT CLOSE SO YOU WILL PAY ATTENTION AND ACT LIKE THIS IS ALL FOR REAL.
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Shooters Buffet on Mon Nov 07, 2016 6:54 pm

    Soxillinirob wrote:Realizing of course that this election can go either way, I'll make a prediction:

    Clinton 340 electorals.  That means I think she takes FL, NC, Nev, all of the blue wall, and even Ohio in a very close squeaker.  She'll win popular vote by between 5.25% and 5.5%.

    Potential surprises:
    Pennsylvania and Michigan super close or potentially go to Trump.
    Arizona super close and potentially goes to HRC.
    Georgia goes Trump, but much closer than in the past.
    Texas goes to Trump but begins showing signs of turning purple.

    My hunch is that HRC turnout machine translates to an extra 1 to 1.5% in national polling and helps get her over electoral hump in a close state or two, such as Michigan or Penn.  Also believe that most Trump voters are loud and proud and that a lot of the undecideds are folks that want to vote for Clinton but are embarrassed to say it out loud.  I know there's a group that believes the same applies to Trump voters.  That's fine and I don't disagree, but I think there are more HRC such hidden votes, i.e. wives that claim to support Trump but vote HRC in the booth. 

    Obviously, I could be very wrong, and I'm, at best, only cautiously optimistic.
    You have Clinton winning Florida and North Carolina and LOSING Michigan and Pennsylvania????


    ARE YOU CONCUSSED????


    IN 4 YEARS TURN ON BALLGAMES AND DITCH POLITICS.
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Shooters Buffet on Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:02 pm

    Rob, are you trying to be the Hawk Harrelson of political punditry???
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    Soxillinirob
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Soxillinirob on Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:03 pm

    No.  I don't have her losing Penn or Mich.  Otherwise, I'd not have her with 340 electorals.  I'm saying that if there's going to be a surprise, it might be that she's close or loses one of those states.
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Soxillinirob on Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:04 pm

    Shooters Buffet wrote:Rob, are you trying to be the Hawk Harrelson of political punditry???

    Dude, I'm just making my prediction.  It's like the Dilo contest.  I think she'll win, but it seems like a few surprises might be in order....winning some surprise states and maybe losing some other ones.

    Hey, at least I put it out there for criticism.

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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Guest on Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:13 pm

    Clinton 340 electorals


    Nothing gets done unless the democrats win the senate - which is a tossup - is Evan Bayh going to win Indiana? (cream?) Does the senate go Dem in Nevada? Pa? Wisconsin?  If not, stalemate all over again - and then the Dems have to take a page from Harry S Truman and campaign in 2018 against the "do nothing congress".. Let's hope for a sweep of the Presidency and Senate
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Nomads44 on Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:43 pm

    Chi-kid wrote:Clinton 340 electorals


    Let's hope for a sweep of the Presidency and Senate

    Let's not, but that is what I fear.... in a huge landslide... and that the House will get closer, too.  GOP is in total disarray.

    I fear Hillary and her too wide network far more than I fear Trump, but I am not pleased there, either.

    I must say, though, this board has been vicious from both sides.  I've been called an idiot by several of you.  Politically, I well may be, but it seems to me that both sides have been quite idiotic. 

    If Clinton wins, will the be gloating or compassion for the losers.  In the unlikely event Trump does, same question.  I doubt either side will all of a sudden become tolerable of the other.  Our country is more divided and hateful than ever, and all each side seems to do is look for more gotchas to spring on the opponent.

    I worked at Public Aid for a few very dismal months.  It was my worst state job assignment ever.  I'll take Vietnam over that environment.  I'd go to meetings where each side would have their quiver of arrows overly packed and at the ready.
    It was sickening to experience, and almost childish.

    I had to ask my company to pull me out of there.

    Hopefully Wednesday we can get back to talking baseball. 

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    Cream1953
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Cream1953 on Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:57 pm

    Tim, I think the republicans will run Indiana. I don't see Bayh winning. He's just not that popular in this state anymore.
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Cream1953 on Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:01 pm

    Jim...we might not always agree. But I would never call you an idiot. Knucklehead maybe but not an idiot!  Laughing
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Shooters Buffet on Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:30 am

    The Washington Post and the L.A. Times Polls, both had Trump on top the entire time, now have Hillary winning.


    IMAGINE THAT!!!


    SHOCKING!!
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Shooters Buffet on Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:33 am

    Soxillinirob wrote:
    Shooters Buffet wrote:Rob, are you trying to be the Hawk Harrelson of political punditry???

    Dude, I'm just making my prediction.  It's like the Dilo contest.  I think she'll win, but it seems like a few surprises might be in order....winning some surprise states and maybe losing some other ones.

    Hey, at least I put it out there for criticism.
    When your boys get older, you can volunteer on a campaign and do GRUNT WORK.  Go door to door.  Far more enlightening and educational than RACHEL FUCKING MADDOW and MEDIA POLLS.


    You will know how real people are thinking.
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:43 am

    Above it all Rob do grunt work

    LMAO

    When will the Schmuck have time to pontificate about shit he knows nothing about

    The lying fuck claims to be for the little guy but then wants to screw small business with minimum wage hikes

    FYI, each dollar increase is $2240 per full time employee.  Thats about 4G for family KARK.  Schmuck is very generous with other people's money.  Maybe people like Rob should get some skin in the game b4 climbing on their high horse
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:16 am

    Nomads44 wrote:
    Chi-kid wrote:Clinton 340 electorals


    Let's hope for a sweep of the Presidency and Senate

    Let's not, but that is what I fear.... in a huge landslide... and that the House will get closer, too.  GOP is in total disarray.

    I fear Hillary and her too wide network far more than I fear Trump, but I am not pleased there, either.

    I must say, though, this board has been vicious from both sides.  I've been called an idiot by several of you.  Politically, I well may be, but it seems to me that both sides have been quite idiotic. 

    If Clinton wins, will the be gloating or compassion for the losers.  In the unlikely event Trump does, same question.  I doubt either side will all of a sudden become tolerable of the other.  Our country is more divided and hateful than ever, and all each side seems to do is look for more gotchas to spring on the opponent.

    I worked at Public Aid for a few very dismal months.  It was my worst state job assignment ever.  I'll take Vietnam over that environment.  I'd go to meetings where each side would have their quiver of arrows overly packed and at the ready.
    It was sickening to experience, and almost childish.

    I had to ask my company to pull me out of there.

    Hopefully Wednesday we can get back to talking baseball. 



    Nothing but gloating Jim

    Just look how Rosebowl constantly smears republicans with vulgar rants

    The DR and Blondy and Roger constant with the smear of republicans being racist war monger a

    Then there is RobZ and his outright lies.  Deficit declining at a historic rate.  LIE. Spending down 5% under Obamacare LIE. Two weeks ago, caught lying about CO2 and ice ages.  The liar can't even admit that fracking is the reason for $2 gas.  Heck, he can't even admit to $2 gas.  

    These people aren't interested in a serious discusssion about the issues.  It's clear to me the prefer to look down upon those of us that don't share their white guilt

    I saw how this board turned on Mart.  Absolutely disgusting.
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Shooters Buffet on Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:20 am

    Mart the Paranoid Racist?


    The guy Muslims were after?


    WHAT A FUCKING STOKE!!


    Hope he finds a good head shrink.
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    Soxillinirob
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Soxillinirob on Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:23 am

    Deplorable Mark wrote:Nothing but gloating Jim

    Just look how Rosebowl constantly smears republicans with vulgar rants

    The DR and Blondy and Roger constant with the smear of republicans being racist war monger a

    Then there is RobZ and his outright lies.  Deficit declining at a historic rate.  LIE. Spending down 5% under Obamacare LIE. Two weeks ago, caught lying about CO2 and ice ages.  The liar can't even admit that fracking is the reason for $2 gas.  Heck, he can't even admit to $2 gas.  

    These people aren't interested in a serious discusssion about the issues.  It's clear to me the prefer to look down upon those of us that don't share their white guilt

    I saw how this board turned on Mart.  Absolutely disgusting.

    I don't believe there'll be gloating.  Maybe some discussion.  Maybe a moment of celebrating.  

    And gas IS currently at $2...at least at my neighborhood Costco.  Not sure it'll remain there for long, but it's there now.  Fracking?  Not sure I've said much about fracking, except that I've read repeatedly that it costs about $50-60 per barrel to frack for oil.  Surely, fracking has helped grow the supply.  Would someone actually deny that?  

    Mart ran away because he can't handle getting some shit.  You handle it.  I handle it.  Everyone handles it.  Mart couldn't.  Maybe his butthurt feelings will recover and he'll come back.
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Shooters Buffet on Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:36 am

    Mart was damned funny about baseball.


    Too bad he is just another political lunatic.
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Shooters Buffet on Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:43 am

    Soxillinirob wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:Nothing but gloating Jim

    Just look how Rosebowl constantly smears republicans with vulgar rants

    The DR and Blondy and Roger constant with the smear of republicans being racist war monger a

    Then there is RobZ and his outright lies.  Deficit declining at a historic rate.  LIE. Spending down 5% under Obamacare LIE. Two weeks ago, caught lying about CO2 and ice ages.  The liar can't even admit that fracking is the reason for $2 gas.  Heck, he can't even admit to $2 gas.  

    These people aren't interested in a serious discusssion about the issues.  It's clear to me the prefer to look down upon those of us that don't share their white guilt

    I saw how this board turned on Mart.  Absolutely disgusting.

    I don't believe there'll be gloating.  Maybe some discussion.  Maybe a moment of celebrating.  

    And gas IS currently at $2...at least at my neighborhood Costco.  Not sure it'll remain there for long, but it's there now.  Fracking?  Not sure I've said much about fracking, except that I've read repeatedly that it costs about $50-60 per barrel to frack for oil.  Surely, fracking has helped grow the supply.  Would someone actually deny that?  

    Mart ran away because he can't handle getting some shit.  You handle it.  I handle it.  Everyone handles it.  Mart couldn't.  Maybe his butthurt feelings will recover and he'll come back.
    I plan on gloating and being as VULGAR as I can be about the GOP!!!
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    Soxillinirob
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Soxillinirob on Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:54 am

    Nomads44 wrote:
    Let's not, but that is what I fear.... in a huge landslide... and that the House will get closer, too.  GOP is in total disarray.

    The House is almost certain to get closer.  Maybe not a lot closer, but at least a bit.  This GOP disarray thing is a bit overblown.  Parties recover and move on.  In the 30 or so years I've been paying attention to politics, I can't begin to count how many times I've heard that this party or that party is sunk, over, in total disarray, falling apart.  They always reform, usually under the guidance of a popular leader.  


    I fear Hillary and her too wide network far more than I fear Trump, but I am not pleased there, either.

    I must say, though, this board has been vicious from both sides.  I've been called an idiot by several of you.  Politically, I well may be, but it seems to me that both sides have been quite idiotic. 

    We agree on very little outside of sports, Jim, but I can't say I've seen anyone call you an idiot.  I've been called my fair share of names here, but only by one person.  Rolls right off me.  Term of endearment, in fact.

    If Clinton wins, will the be gloating or compassion for the losers.  In the unlikely event Trump does, same question.  I doubt either side will all of a sudden become tolerable of the other.  Our country is more divided and hateful than ever, and all each side seems to do is look for more gotchas to spring on the opponent.

    There's a lot of hate, anger and nastiness out there.  It's going to get worse....much worse, before it gets better.  If HRC wins, I'll not gloat.  I'll feel overcome with relief and calmness and will take Wednesday off of work to burn some energy at the gym or do some jobs at the house.  Gloating solves nothing.


    I worked at Public Aid for a few very dismal months.  It was my worst state job assignment ever.  I'll take Vietnam over that environment.  I'd go to meetings where each side would have their quiver of arrows overly packed and at the ready.
    It was sickening to experience, and almost childish.

    I had to ask my company to pull me out of there.

    Hopefully Wednesday we can get back to talking baseball. 

    It would be nice if the Sox would give us something to talk about????

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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Soxillinirob on Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:57 am

    Shooters Buffet wrote:I plan on gloating and being as VULGAR as I can be about the GOP!!!

    Yeah, picking on the GOP will be a hard thing to avoid.  I won't call that gloating over the election.  That's just reality.  This GOP can't seem to separate its head from its ass.  They are surely a house divided.  Kinda figure that the Trump wing of the party will conjoin with the Tea Party wing, and many of the more sane parts of the party might begin moving either leftward, or toward a legitimate third party that seeks to grab some disgruntled dems and team them up with disgruntled Repubs.  I can see a guy like Kevin ending up there. 
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by rmapasad on Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:10 am

    Soxillinirob wrote:Realizing of course that this election can go either way, I'll make a prediction:

    Clinton 340 electorals.  That means I think she takes FL, NC, Nev, all of the blue wall, and even Ohio in a very close squeaker.  She'll win popular vote by between 5.25% and 5.5%.

    Potential surprises:
    Pennsylvania and Michigan super close or potentially go to Trump.
    Arizona super close and potentially goes to HRC.
    Georgia goes Trump, but much closer than in the past.
    Texas goes to Trump but begins showing signs of turning purple.

    My hunch is that HRC turnout machine translates to an extra 1 to 1.5% in national polling and helps get her over electoral hump in a close state or two, such as Michigan or Penn.  Also believe that most Trump voters are loud and proud and that a lot of the undecideds are folks that want to vote for Clinton but are embarrassed to say it out loud.  I know there's a group that believes the same applies to Trump voters.  That's fine and I don't disagree, but I think there are more HRC such hidden votes, i.e. wives that claim to support Trump but vote HRC in the booth. 

    Obviously, I could be very wrong, and I'm, at best, only cautiously optimistic.

    IMO, Trump will get Ohio and Iowa.. He will hold Arizona and Georgia.   Florida and North Carolina will not be called until Wednesday.  Hilliary's "blue wall" will look shaky but still hold up in Mich, Wisc, and Pennsylvania.   If she holds Nevada and New Hampshire, then she squeaks in at 278 electoral and Florida/North Carolina aren't necessary.   Republicans hold the Senate by 51-49 and their lead in the House decreases by 6-8 seats.
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    Soxillinirob
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Soxillinirob on Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:15 am

    rmapasad wrote:
    IMO, Trump will get Ohio and Iowa.. He will hold Arizona and Georgia.   Florida and North Carolina will not be called until Wednesday.  Hilliary's "blue wall" will look shaky but still hold up in Mich, Wisc, and Pennsylvania.   If she holds Nevada and New Hampshire, then she squeaks in at 278 electoral and Florida/North Carolina aren't necessary.   Republicans hold the Senate by 51-49 and their lead in the House decreases by 6-8 seats.

    Pretty realistic view, actually.  This is about how I saw it going until national polls swung upward for HRC in the last couple of days, which began leading me to believe she might pull out a Florida or NC.  
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Shooters Buffet on Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:24 am

    rmapasad wrote:
    Soxillinirob wrote:Realizing of course that this election can go either way, I'll make a prediction:

    Clinton 340 electorals.  That means I think she takes FL, NC, Nev, all of the blue wall, and even Ohio in a very close squeaker.  She'll win popular vote by between 5.25% and 5.5%.

    Potential surprises:
    Pennsylvania and Michigan super close or potentially go to Trump.
    Arizona super close and potentially goes to HRC.
    Georgia goes Trump, but much closer than in the past.
    Texas goes to Trump but begins showing signs of turning purple.

    My hunch is that HRC turnout machine translates to an extra 1 to 1.5% in national polling and helps get her over electoral hump in a close state or two, such as Michigan or Penn.  Also believe that most Trump voters are loud and proud and that a lot of the undecideds are folks that want to vote for Clinton but are embarrassed to say it out loud.  I know there's a group that believes the same applies to Trump voters.  That's fine and I don't disagree, but I think there are more HRC such hidden votes, i.e. wives that claim to support Trump but vote HRC in the booth. 

    Obviously, I could be very wrong, and I'm, at best, only cautiously optimistic.

    IMO, Trump will get Ohio and Iowa.. He will hold Arizona and Georgia.   Florida and North Carolina will not be called until Wednesday.  Hilliary's "blue wall" will look shaky but still hold up in Mich, Wisc, and Pennsylvania.   If she holds Nevada and New Hampshire, then she squeaks in at 278 electoral and Florida/North Carolina aren't necessary.   Republicans hold the Senate by 51-49 and their lead in the House decreases by 6-8 seats.
    This is probably WRONG!!!


    Where is turnout coming from?


    NOT THE TV SET!!!
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Shooters Buffet on Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:52 am

    Turnout HIGH all over the Country.


    How does this benefit the MINORITY Party?


    Not every Caucasian is voting for Trump.
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    Re: Prediction

    Post by Deplorable Mark on Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:19 pm

    Soxillinirob wrote:
    Deplorable Mark wrote:Nothing but gloating Jim

    Just look how Rosebowl constantly smears republicans with vulgar rants

    The DR and Blondy and Roger constant with the smear of republicans being racist war monger a

    Then there is RobZ and his outright lies.  Deficit declining at a historic rate.  LIE. Spending down 5% under Obamacare LIE. Two weeks ago, caught lying about CO2 and ice ages.  The liar can't even admit that fracking is the reason for $2 gas.  Heck, he can't even admit to $2 gas.  

    These people aren't interested in a serious discusssion about the issues.  It's clear to me the prefer to look down upon those of us that don't share their white guilt

    I saw how this board turned on Mart.  Absolutely disgusting.

    I don't believe there'll be gloating.  Maybe some discussion.  Maybe a moment of celebrating.  

    And gas IS currently at $2...at least at my neighborhood Costco.  Not sure it'll remain there for long, but it's there now.  Fracking?  Not sure I've said much about fracking, except that I've read repeatedly that it costs about $50-60 per barrel to frack for oil.  Surely, fracking has helped grow the supply.  Would someone actually deny that?  

    Mart ran away because he can't handle getting some shit.  You handle it.  I handle it.  Everyone handles it.  Mart couldn't.  Maybe his butthurt feelings will recover and he'll come back.


    GAS WENT BELOW $3 IN 2013

    3 YEARS!!!!!!!!

    ALTHOUGH I'M SURE AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF CRISIS THAT WILL DOUBLE THE COST OF A BARREL OF OIL.

    BUT IT WON'T BE THE CONSPIRACY BULLSHIT THAT YOU HAVE BEEN PREDICTING FOR THREE YEARS

    AND YES, WHEN YOU READ BETWEEN YOUR DOUBLE TALK, YOU HAVE DOUBTED FRACKING

    *************

    BTW, YOUR HERO BERNIE WANTS FRACKING OUTLAWED!!!!

    HILLARY JUMPED ON THAT BANDWAGON, BUT THEN, SHE IS A LIAR.  PROBABLY SAID THAT TO APPEASE THE DUMB FUCK MILLENIALS, HALF OF WHOM SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO VOTE.

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