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    Unearned Runs

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    Blondy28
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    Unearned Runs

    Post by Blondy28 on Sun Oct 11, 2015 9:33 pm

    Gotta say I find this a flawed statistic.  I mean, I get it...there's an error in what would have been the third out, so if not for the error, the runs after the error would not have occurred.  But seems to me that there has to be SOME accountability on the pitcher for failure to work around the error.  If there's a runner on 3rd,  and an infielder bobbles a soft ground ball, the run that scores as a result of the error should be unearned, and perhaps if the runner that's on first comes around to score, that should be unearned, but if the flood gates open after the error, seems like at the very least the pitcher should be charged with a half an earned run for each run scored until the inning ends or until/unless there's another error leading to a run, then the scenario repeats.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: Unearned Runs

    Post by rmapasad on Mon Oct 12, 2015 10:14 am

    Blondy28 wrote:Gotta say I find this a flawed statistic.  I mean, I get it...there's an error in what would have been the third out, so if not for the error, the runs after the error would not have occurred.  But seems to me that there has to be SOME accountability on the pitcher for failure to work around the error.  If there's a runner on 3rd,  and an infielder bobbles a soft ground ball, the run that scores as a result of the error should be unearned, and perhaps if the runner that's on first comes around to score, that should be unearned, but if the flood gates open after the error, seems like at the very least the pitcher should be charged with a half an earned run for each run scored until the inning ends or until/unless there's another error leading to a run, then the scenario repeats.

    This is indeed one of the flaws of the ERA stat.  Other flaw of ERA are:
    1 - Good defenders will catch many balls that might go for hits (and result in earned runs) where poorer defenders don't
    2 - When a pitcher leaves a game with runners on base, good bullpens keep those runs from scoring, bad bullpens don't

    Flaws in traditional stats are the reasons for "new wave" stats. WHIP is an older "new wave" stat but hits and walks given up after an error still count against a pitcher.  FIP (fielding independent ERA) measures a pitcher's ERA based on a "neutral" fielding team and neutral bullpens behind him.  It charges the pitcher with all his walks and HR's given up, before or after errors, and then determines the average % of his groundballs, line drives and flyballs given up that would go for hits and what the average run value of those hits would be. FIP has been slow to catch on, but in many ways it's a better measure of pitcher quality than ERA.
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    Nomads44
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    Re: Unearned Runs

    Post by Nomads44 on Mon Oct 12, 2015 5:28 pm

    Blondy, I agree with you on the misleading ERA issues.  Some pitchers I think let it bother them, but once they know their ERA will not be tarnished, they don't care as much.  I'd hate having pitchers like that on my staff, but I think the Sox have had a glut of them in recent years.

    Back to the 70's and the Big Red Machine, I used to get so irritated that Clay Carroll and others in their pen would come in with runners on, give up the runs against the starter and keep their ERA's spotless when IMO they did not pitch all that well.  I have long felt that I wish it were "possible" to charge runs as follows.  Runners on 3rd fully charged to the pitcher who let them on, but a starter departing with runners on 1st or 2nd should only be partially be responsible.  Perhaps for runners that were on 2B when reliever came in, charge 2/3 to the starter and 1/3 to the reliever.  For those that were on 1B, charge 1/3 to the previous pitcher and 1/3 to the reliever.

    Many do not realize that only the pitcher that was on the mound when the error occurred (and perhaps previous pitchers) "benefit" from the error.  If it should have been a 2nd out and a new pitcher arrives with only one out instead of what should have been two, the new pitcher does not get to pitch as if he only needs one out.  He must retire the side as if there had been no errors.  The change suggested above would make the relievers at least somewhat responsible.  I grant them a runner on 3B as being fully chargeable to the prior pitcher because if it should score on a DP, a sac fly, or even just a groundout, the reliever did his job.

    I also feel HOLDS should be restructured and made to be very meaningful.  And blown saves in the earlier innings should not be considered blown saves so much as blown holds.  Seems illogical to give a setup man a blown save when he would have never been given the chance to get the save if he held them anyway.

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