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    jaywit
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    Question

    Post by jaywit on Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:36 am

    This is a question for Nomads or Roger or others who pay attention to minor league players.  How often does a player have a successful major league career despite being mediocre in the minors.  Case in point is Trayce Thompson with a rather unimpressive minor league line .241/.319/.429 over 7 seasons.  Are there any examples of current players who are making a splash but had so-so minor league stats.
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    Soxillinirob
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    Re: Question

    Post by Soxillinirob on Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:38 pm

    Just guessing but I would think it would be more of something you'd see out of pitchers, where maybe they developed a new pitch in the majors and suddenly became better. 

    Having watched Thompson a bit, I heard he strikes out too much and so forth but I've been impressed with his plate approach.  He takes off speed pitches well (so far) and his swing is pretty...looks exactly what I'm always trying to teach junior here at the house to do.  He might just be going through a span where he's seeing the ball very well and is hot, but I've liked how he looks so far.  And it's not just the results that are exciting for me.  It's the way he's handling his at bats.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: Question

    Post by rmapasad on Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:50 pm

    jaywit wrote:This is a question for Nomads or Roger or others who pay attention to minor league players.  How often does a player have a successful major league career despite being mediocre in the minors.  Case in point is Trayce Thompson with a rather unimpressive minor league line .241/.319/.429 over 7 seasons.  Are there any examples of current players who are making a splash but had so-so minor league stats.
    Josh Donaldson is one that comes to mind.  He was only a .238 hitter in  AAA at age 24 (v. Thompson's .260 in AAA this year at the same age).  But Donaldson had better plate discipline and power so that's probably not a real good comp.
    Fan Graphs had an article on Thompson about 2 weeks ago after his call-up.  Said he's a good athlete who comes from an athletic family (father and brother both NBA players) but has "unrefined baseball skills".   A fairly common storyline for Kenny Williams' draftees.  
    Unfortunately their projections for Thompson weren't real encouraging.  This guy ran a comp of all minor league players dating back to 1990 whose AAA seasons were comparable to Thompson's this year, and his conclusion was "Thompson might be able to carve out a niche as an part-time player, potentially along the lines of Matt Mieske, Damon Buford or Jason Lane. That’s not particularly exciting, but it’s not useless, either."
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    jaywit
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    Re: Question

    Post by jaywit on Sat Aug 29, 2015 3:19 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    jaywit wrote:This is a question for Nomads or Roger or others who pay attention to minor league players.  How often does a player have a successful major league career despite being mediocre in the minors.  Case in point is Trayce Thompson with a rather unimpressive minor league line .241/.319/.429 over 7 seasons.  Are there any examples of current players who are making a splash but had so-so minor league stats.
    Josh Donaldson is one that comes to mind.  He was only a .238 hitter in  AAA at age 24 (v. Thompson's .260 in AAA this year at the same age).  But Donaldson had better plate discipline and power so that's probably not a real good comp.
    Fan Graphs had an article on Thompson about 2 weeks ago after his call-up.  Said he's a good athlete who comes from an athletic family (father and brother both NBA players) but has "unrefined baseball skills".   A fairly common storyline for Kenny Williams' draftees.  
    Unfortunately their projections for Thompson weren't real encouraging.  This guy ran a comp of all minor league players dating back to 1990 whose AAA seasons were comparable to Thompson's this year, and his conclusion was "Thompson might be able to carve out a niche as an part-time player, potentially along the lines of Matt Mieske, Damon Buford or Jason Lane. That’s not particularly exciting, but it’s not useless, either."

    Thanks for the response and the conclusion at the end is pretty much what I was expecting.  Not useless but not exciting can also translate as "Not a dependable replacement for Garcia.  Maybe next year's 4th OFer."
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    jaywit
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    Re: Question

    Post by jaywit on Sat Aug 29, 2015 3:21 pm

    Soxillinirob wrote:Just guessing but I would think it would be more of something you'd see out of pitchers, where maybe they developed a new pitch in the majors and suddenly became better. 

    Having watched Thompson a bit, I heard he strikes out too much and so forth but I've been impressed with his plate approach.  He takes off speed pitches well (so far) and his swing is pretty...looks exactly what I'm always trying to teach junior here at the house to do.  He might just be going through a span where he's seeing the ball very well and is hot, but I've liked how he looks so far.  And it's not just the results that are exciting for me.  It's the way he's handling his at bats.

    Yeah, I'd guess the same, it's more likely to happen with pitchers as they refine their repertoire and refine their ability to find the strike zone.  Or if they develop a new pitch like a knuckler.  Who is it that keeps clamoring for that?

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    Re: Question

    Post by Guest on Sat Aug 29, 2015 6:18 pm

    Not a dependable replacement for Garcia.



    Are we giving up on Garcia? given that this is really his first full season in the league, is he really doing that badly?? He's 24 yrs old.
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    Nomads44
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    Re: Question

    Post by Nomads44 on Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:49 pm

    Not on here as much as I used to be.  Maggs Ordonez first came to mind as I read your question.  He became a VERY strong ballplayer and was quite unheralded until the tail end of his minor league years.  Current Cardinals Grichuk and Piscotty come to mind.  The Cardinals just keep producing.

    In 12 and 13, Thompson was the BBA #4 and then #2 White Sox prospect.

    The two Cards in those same years were

               Grichuk - not rated (probably just drafted in front of Trout) and #6
               Piscotty - not rated and #10 (again, probably had just been drafted in 2012)

    How about Todd Frazier.  Took him awhile to get going.  He had gone from Reds #1 to #9 the following two years and looked like he might not make it.  He took off last year.

    Yasmani Grandal was backsliding as a prospect for awhile, and now doing very well.  Not sure if these are the type of examples you were looking for.

    I think what you are looking for is someone who excited the fan base, then disappointed to the point of never expecting anything to now showing he might just have it after all.  With the jury still out on Thompson, hard to find a good comp, I think.

    Another Marcell Ozuna.  Highly rated initially and then got traded (do not remember for whom), the looked like he was going to get it together, then got sent back down much of this year, I think.

    Oh, and this A.J. Pollock kid.  All of a sudden a star and had regressed like four years in a row.  From 2010, AZ's #3, then #6, #6 again, then #10.  Maybe he is the closest to what we might think as Thompson.  If Thompson can become a Pollock, we will all be VERY happy.
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    Nomads44
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    Re: Question

    Post by Nomads44 on Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:50 pm

    P.S., those mostly N.L. examples as I play in a NL fantasy league and those guys become the type of cheap bargains I like to pick up early.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: Question

    Post by rmapasad on Sun Aug 30, 2015 3:07 pm

    Chi-kid wrote:Not a dependable replacement for Garcia.
    Are we giving up on Garcia? given that this is really his first full season in the league, is he really doing that badly?? He's 24 yrs old.

    Well, he is hitting for a semi-respectable avg and could develop more power as he gets older.   But it's also fair to ask whether his career will be any better than Tank's.  Here are their lines through age 24.
    Viciedo  (1235 PA)  .264/.306/.432   2 sb, 2 cs,   63 BB - 266 K's  (.24 BB/K)
    Garcia   (980 PA)    .270/.315/.394  13 sb,13 cs  53 BB - 250 K's  (.23 BB/K)

    IMO, Garcia is the type player that the Kenny Williams Sox have been a sucker for - raw talented dumbshits.  Nothing he's done since the Sox got him 2 years ago make him appear any different.
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    Re: Question

    Post by Nomads44 on Sun Aug 30, 2015 5:11 pm

    rmapasad wrote:
    Chi-kid wrote:Not a dependable replacement for Garcia.
    Are we giving up on Garcia? given that this is really his first full season in the league, is he really doing that badly?? He's 24 yrs old.

    Well, he is hitting for a semi-respectable avg and could develop more power as he gets older.   But it's also fair to ask whether his career will be any better than Tank's.  Here are their lines through age 24.
    Viciedo  (1235 PA)  .264/.306/.432   2 sb, 2 cs,   63 BB - 266 K's  (.24 BB/K)
    Garcia   (980 PA)    .270/.315/.394  13 sb,13 cs  53 BB - 250 K's  (.23 BB/K)

    IMO, Garcia is the type player that the Kenny Williams Sox have been a sucker for - raw talented dumbshits.  Nothing he's done since the Sox got him 2 years ago make him appear any different.

    Dang, except for the speed, those two are too similar.  Hawk raves about him and many of us are still waiting to see the attraction.  Was it Murf or Da Rev expecting him to be ROY?  And this "first full season" stuff?

    Here are their 162-game averages from BB-Ref through last year.

    Viciedo . 67 Runs, 71 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS, .254-.298-.424-.722, OPS 97
    Garcia .. 71 Runs, 70 RBI, 8 SB, 8 CS, .270-.315-.394-.709, OPS 99

    I think OPS of 100 means average player, so these are each a bit below average.

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    Re: Question

    Post by Guest on Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:45 am

    jaywit wrote:
    Soxillinirob wrote:Just guessing but I would think it would be more of something you'd see out of pitchers, where maybe they developed a new pitch in the majors and suddenly became better. 

    Having watched Thompson a bit, I heard he strikes out too much and so forth but I've been impressed with his plate approach.  He takes off speed pitches well (so far) and his swing is pretty...looks exactly what I'm always trying to teach junior here at the house to do.  He might just be going through a span where he's seeing the ball very well and is hot, but I've liked how he looks so far.  And it's not just the results that are exciting for me.  It's the way he's handling his at bats.

    Yeah, I'd guess the same, it's more likely to happen with pitchers as they refine their repertoire and refine their ability to find the strike zone.  Or if they develop a new pitch like a knuckler.  Who is it that keeps clamoring for that?



    YOU SURE KNOW HOW TO HURT THE KARK'S FEELINGS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


    BUT SINCE YOU BROUGHT IT UP......

    If I were somebody like Mike Sirotka, who I consider to be the pre-Buehrle, how do you not even try this pitch?  What do you have to lose?  Your arm is shot, so its not like your giving something up.  But if you master it, you are now several million dollars richer.

    WHICH REMINDS ME OF HOW TO BUILD A WINNER
    1 KNUCKLEBALLER
    2 INNING SAVES
    3 CATCHERS
    4 MAN ROTATION
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    jaywit
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    Re: Question

    Post by jaywit on Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:27 pm

    tHe SicKo FANt wrote:
    jaywit wrote:
    Soxillinirob wrote:Just guessing but I would think it would be more of something you'd see out of pitchers, where maybe they developed a new pitch in the majors and suddenly became better. 

    Having watched Thompson a bit, I heard he strikes out too much and so forth but I've been impressed with his plate approach.  He takes off speed pitches well (so far) and his swing is pretty...looks exactly what I'm always trying to teach junior here at the house to do.  He might just be going through a span where he's seeing the ball very well and is hot, but I've liked how he looks so far.  And it's not just the results that are exciting for me.  It's the way he's handling his at bats.

    Yeah, I'd guess the same, it's more likely to happen with pitchers as they refine their repertoire and refine their ability to find the strike zone.  Or if they develop a new pitch like a knuckler.  Who is it that keeps clamoring for that?



    YOU SURE KNOW HOW TO HURT THE KARK'S FEELINGS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


    BUT SINCE YOU BROUGHT IT UP......

    If I were somebody like Mike Sirotka, who I consider to be the pre-Buehrle, how do you not even try this pitch?  What do you have to lose?  Your arm is shot, so its not like your giving something up.  But if you master it, you are now several million dollars richer.

    WHICH REMINDS ME OF HOW TO BUILD A WINNER
    1 KNUCKLEBALLER
    2 INNING SAVES
    3 CATCHERS
    4 MAN ROTATION

    I agree, if you're about to be drummed out of baseball either because of injury or otherwise mediocre stuff, why not try to develop a knuckler?  You'd think pitching coaches in the minors who can see the kids with a good work ethic but not enough stuff to make it to the majors would advise them to try it.  If they don't know how to throw it, find Wilbur Wood or Charlie Hough (they're still living, right?) and give them an advisory job.  With every reliever seemingly a flame-thrower, the change in speed of pitches may play to the knuckler's advantage.

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