Nomadsfest Sox Fans

A forum for the old AOL board Sox fans and others.


    Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Share

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by Guest on Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:45 pm

    LMAO!!!!!

    I just did the math and there is NO minimum savings of $20mil in the above example.

    But since I am a nice guy, I will give you a can to redo your math and admit you made a mistake and state that $20mil is extremely gross exaggeration of the White Sox potential cost savings between signing him now and this offseason.

    Then, once you prove you are man enough to admit when you are wrong, I will forgive you and let the issue die.  Otherwise, be prepared for full blown KARK mode where I will once again have you screaming multicolinearity like a frighten little schoolgirl

    BTW, you might want to check on how arbitration works.  Some of us here have been formerly educated on the subject at a prestigious university.  Trust me, the process hasn't changed significantly since 1987.

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by Guest on Thu Apr 02, 2015 4:10 pm

     by Soxillinirob on Tue Mar 31, 2015 3:28 pm

    Father of Stan wrote:


    Any intellectual honest person with an ounce of reading comprehension can see that my issue is the extension,
    but the ridiculous claims that the extension is guaranteed to save the White Sox over $20mil.


    Nobody has made that claim.  Nobody has guaranteed anything.






     by rmapasad Today at 2:45 pm



    You can do the math, but Lagares and Melky examples show the Sox have conservatively saved over $ 20 million by locking up Eaton now.




    HEY ROBZ, EVEN THO ROGER DOESN'T USE THE WORD GUARENTEE, I BELIEVE ROGER'S ABOVE STMT CAN BE TAKEN THAT HE BELIEVES $20MIL SAVED IS PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN.

    YET IN YOUR POST ABOVE, YOU STATED NOBODY IS CLAIMING SUCH A SAVINGS.

    I THINK ITS TIME YOU FINALLY ADMIT BEING WRONG TO SOMETHING AND APOLOGIZE FOR BESMIRCHING MY FINE CHARACTER
    avatar
    rmapasad
    Roof Shot

    Posts : 2489
    Join date : 2009-04-06
    Location : Northridge, CA

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Apr 02, 2015 4:54 pm

    OK,  Lagares (who has 1.1 yr ST v. Eaton 2.03) just got $ 23 mil to buy out his last 4 yrs of arb ..Sox are only at $ 13.5 mil over the last 4 yrs. with Eaton ( .8 mil this yr, 2.7 mil, 4 mil and $ 6 mil).  Right there, the Sox save $ 9.5 mil.      But Eaton has three more years to go at  $ 8.4, and two options for $ 9.5, $ 10.5 =  $ 28.5
     If he went FA for those 3 yrs instead and got Melky's deal (3 yrs, $ 42 mil), the Sox have saved another $ 13.5 million.  $ 9.5 mil saved in 4 arb yrs + 13.5 mil saved in 3 FA yrs =  $ 23 mil  Like I said, the $ 20 mil savings was conservative.

    Sure, the arb process is basically the same.  What's changed is teams buying out guy's arb years plus his first 2-3 yrs of free agency with that.  Just like Sox did with Sale and Quintana also. Which makes a ton of sense with crazy FA money these days.

    Agree, if you're right about Eaton being in a bust, Sox have overcommitted.   But Eaton hit  .300 with a 343 career minors. So a GM
    would not be smart to plan on Eaton being a bust and just taking a wait and see approach WHEN the chance is now to lock him up for cheap.

    That's the beauty of this. Sox are only locked into $ 23.5 over 5 years, less than $ 5 mil per.  They can opt out of his last two yrs.   DeAza is getting $ 5 mil this year. Will Eaton be worse than DeAza ?  On defense alone, the answer is no.   .. Meanwhile, if he remains a top 4-5 CFer, you've saved a bundle by striking now while the iron is hot rather than waiting till the guy has much better bargaining power.  Hahn is smart.
    avatar
    rmapasad
    Roof Shot

    Posts : 2489
    Join date : 2009-04-06
    Location : Northridge, CA

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Apr 02, 2015 5:31 pm

    HEY ROBZ, EVEN THO ROGER DOESN'T USE THE WORD GUARENTEE, I BELIEVE ROGER'S ABOVE STMT CAN BE TAKEN THAT HE BELIEVES $20MIL SAVED IS PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN.>>



    Kark, here's the whole statement. 

    "Say Eaton could get what Melky got when Melky turned FA (42 mil over 3 yrs). You can do the math, but Lagares and Melky examples show the Sox have conservatively saved over $ 20 million by locking up Eaton now. "

    The $ 20 mil savings comes only if Eaton COULD get Melky's deal. The statement was not that Eaton WILL get it. Of course, Eaton would have to stay good or at least decent to get Melky $$.



    I've  done the "what if Eaton ends up a 4th OFer stuff before too and you know it.  I've also said  "what if you're right and Eaton isn't that good" and you know that too. Taking one sentence deliberately out of its context and trying to make it seem like that sentence means what you want it to mean, is chicanery -plain and simple.
    avatar
    Soxillinirob
    Chairman Reinsdorf

    Posts : 7401
    Join date : 2009-04-05
    Age : 51
    Location : St. Charles, IL

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by Soxillinirob on Thu Apr 02, 2015 9:58 pm

    Father of Stan wrote: by Soxillinirob on Tue Mar 31, 2015 3:28 pm

    Father of Stan wrote:


    Any intellectual honest person with an ounce of reading comprehension can see that my issue is the extension,
    but the ridiculous claims that the extension is guaranteed to save the White Sox over $20mil.


    Nobody has made that claim.  Nobody has guaranteed anything.






     by rmapasad Today at 2:45 pm



    You can do the math, but Lagares and Melky examples show the Sox have conservatively saved over $ 20 million by locking up Eaton now.




    HEY ROBZ, EVEN THO ROGER DOESN'T USE THE WORD GUARENTEE, I BELIEVE ROGER'S ABOVE STMT CAN BE TAKEN THAT HE BELIEVES $20MIL SAVED IS PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN.

    YET IN YOUR POST ABOVE, YOU STATED NOBODY IS CLAIMING SUCH A SAVINGS.

    I THINK ITS TIME YOU FINALLY ADMIT BEING WRONG TO SOMETHING AND APOLOGIZE FOR BESMIRCHING MY FINE CHARACTER

    Hey dummy....He said that piece AFTER I said it hadn't been stated yet.  At least find him saying it before my comments.  Go take a nap or have a drink or something.  Or have another drink.

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by Guest on Fri Apr 03, 2015 7:31 am

    HEY DUMMY, WHAT THE HELL DO YOU THINK HAS BEEN ARGUED OVER THE PAST 7 PAGES?!?!?!?!


    Last edited by Father of Stan on Fri Apr 03, 2015 7:37 am; edited 1 time in total

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by Guest on Fri Apr 03, 2015 7:36 am

    rmapasad wrote:OK,  Lagares (who has 1.1 yr ST v. Eaton 2.03) just got $ 23 mil to buy out his last 4 yrs of arb ..Sox are only at $ 13.5 mil over the last 4 yrs. with Eaton ( .8 mil this yr, 2.7 mil, 4 mil and $ 6 mil).  Right there, the Sox save $ 9.5 mil.      But Eaton has three more years to go at  $ 8.4, and two options for $ 9.5, $ 10.5 =  $ 28.5
     If he went FA for those 3 yrs instead and got Melky's deal (3 yrs, $ 42 mil), the Sox have saved another $ 13.5 million.  $ 9.5 mil saved in 4 arb yrs + 13.5 mil saved in 3 FA yrs =  $ 23 mil  Like I said, the $ 20 mil savings was conservative.

    Sure, the arb process is basically the same.  What's changed is teams buying out guy's arb years plus his first 2-3 yrs of free agency with that.  Just like Sox did with Sale and Quintana also. Which makes a ton of sense with crazy FA money these days.

    Agree, if you're right about Eaton being in a bust, Sox have overcommitted.   But Eaton hit  .300 with a 343 career minors. So a GM
    would not be smart to plan on Eaton being a bust and just taking a wait and see approach WHEN the chance is now to lock him up for cheap.

    That's the beauty of this. Sox are only locked into $ 23.5 over 5 years, less than $ 5 mil per.  They can opt out of his last two yrs.   DeAza is getting $ 5 mil this year. Will Eaton be worse than DeAza ?  On defense alone, the answer is no.   .. Meanwhile, if he remains a top 4-5 CFer, you've saved a bundle by striking now while the iron is hot rather than waiting till the guy has much better bargaining power.  Hahn is smart.


    OK ROGER, HERE IS THE ENTIRE QUOTE.

    EXPLAIN HOW THE PART BOLDED IN RED WAS TAKEN OUT OF CONTEXT.

    BOTTOM LINE, NO WAY IN HELL EATON CONTRACT GOES UP $20MIL IF THE WAIT A YEAR TO EXTEND HIM.

    IN TEN WORDS OR LESS, AGREE OR DISAGREE
    avatar
    rmapasad
    Roof Shot

    Posts : 2489
    Join date : 2009-04-06
    Location : Northridge, CA

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Apr 03, 2015 10:35 am

    I didn't guarantee Eaton would perform like 2014, only that if he did, the Sox would be looking at a much bigger number to extend him.
    avatar
    Soxillinirob
    Chairman Reinsdorf

    Posts : 7401
    Join date : 2009-04-05
    Age : 51
    Location : St. Charles, IL

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by Soxillinirob on Fri Apr 03, 2015 10:44 am

    rmapasad wrote:I didn't guarantee Eaton would perform like 2014, only that if he did, the Sox would be looking at a much bigger number to extend him.  

    That's how I read it, and fully agree with that basic notion.

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by Guest on Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:05 am

    Whatever.....

    Roger is still guilty of sloppy math.  No way in hell the exposure is a potential $20mil.  Which anybody that has read the past 7 pages knows that is exactly what Roger claiming. 

    Let's see if you 2 genius can find his very obvious error.
    avatar
    rmapasad
    Roof Shot

    Posts : 2489
    Join date : 2009-04-06
    Location : Northridge, CA

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Apr 03, 2015 3:51 pm

    Whatever.....Roger is still guilty of sloppy math.  No way in hell the exposure is a  otential $20mil.  Which anybody that has read the past 7 pages knows that is exactly what Roger claiming.  Let's see if you 2 genius can find his very obvious error. >>>
    One more time, these are rough estimates of what it might take to extend Eaton after a certain type of season.  You may disagree with the estimates but there is no "sloppy math" or "obvious errors"..

                         2015      2016    2017  2018   2019   2020   2021
    Instead of :     .8          2.7       4        6         8.4     9.5    10.5  =  41.9  (current contract)
    It goes to:      .8           5         8       11        14      14      14    =  66.8  (.300 season in 2015)
    Or it goes to   .8           4         6.5    10        12.5    13     14    =   60.8  (.285 season in 2015)

    Eaton has two kings showing on the table right now.  Another good 2015, he's got three kings.
    He's dispelled doubts about health and moves from "possible top 10 CFer" to "proven top 10 CFer" . Those guys are getting $ 12- $ 20 mil per on the open market.  The Sox want to have three years of his free agency. 
    In a no-raise-limit game, a guy who gets that third king ain't gonna say "I'll bump it a buck" as you suggest.  You think that another .300 season from him will only produce an average of $ 1 to 1.5 million per year more than his current deal pver for next 6 years ?  LMAO. 

    Here's the final question:  if you think Eaton is a 4th OFer, then the only logical course is just to keep paying him arb and sign no extension EVER.  If he gets hurt or flubs a season, the Sox pay him a small raise. If it gets bad enough, they non-tender him and/or they walk away when he hits free agency.   It's certainly the cheapest path. 
    If he hits .285 in 2015, and they extend him then, what happens if he turns into Chris Singleton (two decent years, then off the cliff) ?  If you're going to be consistent about this guy, why not be consistent all the way ?

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by Guest on Fri Apr 03, 2015 5:10 pm

    Once again Roger plucks numbers out of nowhere, is inconsistant with his prior examples, and ignores the obvious question on why Eaton would leave that much money on the table just to sign today. Not to mention how he misrepresents my 4th OF comment and makes completely erronous assumptions about it.

    That said, it appears to me Roger just admitted that had the Sox would have paid Eaton at least $60mil for his services from 2016 to 2021 had that waited until spring of 2016. Everybody else read it that way? Or there someone secret meaning only Roger and RobZ can see?
    avatar
    rmapasad
    Roof Shot

    Posts : 2489
    Join date : 2009-04-06
    Location : Northridge, CA

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Apr 03, 2015 6:47 pm

    I and other posters have said this before. Eaton took this deal because if he gets hurt in 2015, his leverage evaporates.  So he gives up bucks on the back-end for the safety net.  I still think he short-changed himself, especially after the latest deal to this Met kid.
    Sox may have already saved a bundle in the last two weeks by signing Eaton before the Met CFer.  This kid is getting $ 6 mil per deal to cover his arb years and had 669 OPS last year.  Eaton is getting an avg. of $ 6 mil per over 7 yrs. and 3 of those are FA years... Eaton had a 794 last yr.  He should be kicking his agent in the ass right now !!!!

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by Guest on Fri Apr 03, 2015 8:03 pm

    Sleep
    avatar
    rmapasad
    Roof Shot

    Posts : 2489
    Join date : 2009-04-06
    Location : Northridge, CA

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Apr 03, 2015 10:32 pm

    Chi-kid wrote:Sleep

    Thank you for that..  Good wake-up call for me. Many more important things to do in life.   Won't be here any longer.

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by Guest on Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:28 am

    Hilarious!!!!!!

    The board's biggest know it all drags this topic out 8 pages first by insisting the Sox just saved $20mil.  Then he claimed he never said such a thing.  Now this pseudo sabermetian, who never hesitates to critique and evaluate the analysis of others is running away because he can't handle his own medicine


    LMAO

    Well that If this mean we will no longer be bored with term papers over explaining the obvious, sloppy math, and how journalism dropouts make excellent mathematicians, then it was worth it

    PS, I take now that everybody is in agreement that there is no way in hell Eaton costs an extra $20mil if the Sox waited until next spring

    Guest
    Guest

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by Guest on Sat Apr 04, 2015 10:14 am

    rmapasad wrote:I love it. RobZ is the first to question if Eaton can stay healthy throughout the deal, now he is acting like a 5WAR a year is a foregone conclusion just because the KARK is yet to be impressed by the runt
    The Sox already had him under control for not only 2015, but 16 17 and 18 as well
    Considering next year is suppose to be his 27 pak year, I fall to see the rush to insure he will still be under contract in his early 30's when its quite possible he could be a miniature pale version of De Aza >>

    Yes, because of Eaton's height and some offbase comparisons to former Sox players, Rick Hahn has made a big blunder here.  The math is simple:
    Eaton's deal :  $ .8 mil, $ 2.7, $ 4 mil, $ 6 mil, $ 8.5 mil plus options at $ 10 mil for 2 yrs
     = $ 23 mil for 5 years or $ 43 mil for 7 years
    Waiting for Eaton to prove he can duplicate 2014: $ .6 mil this yr, $ 4.5 mil, $ 8 mil, $ 11 mil $13 mil  then $ 15 mil per yr options for the next two seasons  = $ 37 mil for 5 years or $ 67 mil for 7 years.

    If Eaton falls to .270 BA, 340 OBP cut the above estimate to $ 30 mil and $ 57 mil.  Only if he falls to a 250 BA/ 300 OBP or has a career-ending injury does this deal not make sense.

    Here is a post from 8days ago where Roger first states a $20mil savings

    Prior to this post, everything I posted stated waiting a year.  Notice how Roger completely misrepresents my prior posts of waiting a year by claing I said it was a big blunder

    Then Roger, without any justification, proclaims Eaton's contract could be anywhere from 57 - 67 mil had they waited.  When he made up numbers where challenged, instead of providing evidence, he called me names and insulted my intelligence then claimed he was being picked on by the big bad KARK

    Now the rest of the board claims this discussion has gotten old.  Yet, nobody here has said I agree with one side or the other.  The closest would be RobZ who said nobody ever claimed waiting a year costs $20mil.  Suggesting that the thought of Eaton &60mil + a year from now is absurd.  Perhaps RobZ should clarify this

    Btw, the poster formerly known as KARK stands by his stmt that there is no way in hell Eaton contract increases by $20mil simply by waiting another 12 months

    frank bonifacic
    Roof Shot

    Posts : 2470
    Join date : 2009-04-05

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by frank bonifacic on Sat Apr 04, 2015 11:33 am

    tHe SicKo FANt wrote:Hilarious!!!!!!

    The board's biggest know it all drags this topic out 8 pages first by insisting the Sox just saved $20mil.  Then he claimed he never said such a thing.  Now this pseudo sabermetian, who never hesitates to critique and evaluate the analysis of others is running away because he can't handle his own medicine


    LMAO

    Well that If this mean we will no longer be bored with term papers over explaining the obvious, sloppy math, and how journalism dropouts make excellent mathematicians, then it was worth it

    PS, I take now that everybody is in agreement that there is no way in hell Eaton costs an extra $20mil if the Sox waited until next spring


    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    I guess we'll have to wait until next spring to figure it out-when we have his 2015 numbers.

    Sponsored content

    Re: Adam Eaton Extended another five years

    Post by Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:20 am