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    Sale injured

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    rmapasad
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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Mar 05, 2015 2:39 pm

    Father of Stan wrote:Robert,

    The poster formerly known as KARK maintains that you can't win a division with 2 sub 500 months

    Therefore, I'd hate start the year behind the 8 ball.

    Despite your rants, April has typically been a reliable predictator for the White Sox.

    Fair to say that good teams generally have better Aprils than bad teams.  So yeah, the 2000 and 2005 Sox, who were good teams had good Aprils.  But that's not airtight by any means.  In 2007 the garbage Sox had the same April record as the 2008 Sox team, who made the playoffs.  In 2014, of the 8 best teams in April, only 3 made postseason, and of the 8 worst teams in April, 2 made postseason.  You don't want a bad start in April, but it's not an automatic death knell.  Obviously, a good start doesn't guarantee shit either.  Just ask the 2014 Brewers. 
    With the AL Central theoretically so closely bunched in talent (except Twins who are supposed to stink again), and the April weather being fairly equivalent in all the AL Central cities, IMO the top 4 will be bunched around .500 in April, and probably the rest of the year.   A lot of the advantage or disadvantage for any of those 4 teams comes down to whose players stay healthiest, IMO.  If one of those teams lose a key player to injury in April, then THAT may be a portent of things to come.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by rmapasad on Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:24 pm

    Ok, will say this about April starts that are either extremely good or bad.  They are predictive to a FAIR degree on the plus side, but VERY predictive on the minus side.  In last five years, 28 teams have had a .600 or better April win %, 57% made the playoffs.   In same time period, of 32 teams who tanked April (.400 Win % or worse) only 6% made the playoffs.  
    Vast majority (27 of 32) April tankers were bad teams over the whole season.  Of the 5 who ended up over .500 despite a bad April, 2 made the playoffs anyway and 3 missed in part because of a bad April (2014 Indians, 2010 White Sox, 2012 Angels).  
    So in sum, a really hot April (.600+) means that while that team is no lock, it usually stands a better than 50-50 shot of making the playoffs.  A really bad April (.400 minus) is almost a surefire guarantee that it's a bad team, period.   And for those good teams who tank April, it's still possible to get to the playoffs but a bad start probably makes those odds less than 50-50.

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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by Guest on Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:31 pm

    Roger claims the 2007 Sox had the same record as the 2008. What he leaves out is the 2008 Sox finished April in 1st. And finished May in 1st. And JUne in 1st.....

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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by Guest on Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:33 pm

    Rosebowl, you are full of beans.

    If the Sox start of with a losing April an a losing May, you'd be the first to mock anybody who screams

    1983
    1983
    1983

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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by Guest on Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:36 pm

    On Rogerks little study, the Sox have been 600+ 3 times this millenium. 2 of them made the post season. The 3rd won 90 games andjust missed

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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by Guest on Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:50 pm

    Hey Rosebowl, the last Sox teams to make the playoffs were basically wire to wire teams. To this franchise, Pril does matter

    And thank you Cream forunderstanding that

    winstonage
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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by winstonage on Fri Mar 06, 2015 7:34 am

    Father of Stan wrote:Hey Rosebowl, the last Sox teams to make the playoffs were basically wire to wire teams.  To this franchise, Pril does matter

    And thank you Cream forunderstanding that

    They do say, you can't win a division in April, but you can lose it.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Mar 06, 2015 10:48 am

    winstonage wrote:
    Father of Stan wrote:Hey Rosebowl, the last Sox teams to make the playoffs were basically wire to wire teams.  To this franchise, Pril does matter

    And thank you Cream forunderstanding that

    They do say, you can't win a division in April, but you can lose it.

    Exactly. Simple math.  Say a division leader goes 18 -9 and the last place team 9-18 in April. The last place team has already dug themselves a 9 game deficit, where the division leader has only have a 3 game lead over a 2nd place team that starts 15-12.    

    As to all the recent White Sox division winners being wire-to-wire (2008, 2005, 2000) that's a function of small sample size.  Expand the sample and you'll see that none of the prior 3 Sox postseason teams (1993, 1983, 1959) were in first place on April 30th.   Unfortunately those are the only Sox postseason "samples" since 1919.

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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by Guest on Fri Mar 06, 2015 10:52 am

    This is a fascinating discussion. I never knew the more of the 162 games you win makes a difference.
    Huh? who would have thought??   Razz What a Face confused bounce lol!
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    alohafri
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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by alohafri on Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:00 am

    Chi-kid wrote:This is a fascinating discussion. I never knew the more of the 162 games you win makes a difference.
    Huh? who would have thought??   Razz What a Face confused bounce lol!

    I gouged my eyes out a few posts ago.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:13 am

    < Roger claims the 2007 Sox had the same record as the 2008. What he leaves out is the 2008 Sox finished April in 1st. And finished May in 1st. And JUne in 1st.....>

    Being in first place by 1 game on April 30th, as the Sox were in 2008 is the equivalent of leading a basketball game 25-22 after the first 10 minutes.
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    rmapasad
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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:40 am

    Chi-kid wrote:This is a fascinating discussion. I never knew the more of the 162 games you win makes a difference.
    Huh? who would have thought??   Razz What a Face confused bounce lol!


    So I guess there's no point of discussing the probability of making the postseason for a team that starts a season 8-22 versus 22-8 because we all find out after 162 games anyway ?


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    rmapasad
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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:40 am

    Chi-kid wrote:This is a fascinating discussion. I never knew the more of the 162 games you win makes a difference.
    Huh? who would have thought??   Razz What a Face confused bounce lol!


    So I guess there's no point of discussing the probability of making the postseason for a team that starts a season 8-22 versus 22-8  because we all find out after 162 games anyway ?

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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by Guest on Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:46 am

    rmapasad wrote:< Roger claims the 2007 Sox had the same record as the 2008. What he leaves out is the 2008 Sox finished April in 1st. And finished May in 1st. And JUne in 1st.....>

    Being in first place by 1 game on April 30th, as the Sox were in 2008 is the equivalent of leading a basketball game 25-22 after the first 10 minutes.


    Yet still in first. And keep you small sample size to yourself

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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by Guest on Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:50 am

    rmapasad wrote:< Roger claims the 2007 Sox had the same record as the 2008. What he leaves out is the 2008 Sox finished April in 1st. And finished May in 1st. And JUne in 1st.....>

    Being in first place by 1 game on April 30th, as the Sox were in 2008 is the equivalent of leading a basketball game 25-22 after the first 10 minutes.


    Yet still in first. And keep you small sample size to yourself

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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by Guest on Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:33 pm

    So I guess there's no point of discussing the probability of making the postseason for a team that starts a season 8-22 versus 22-8 because we all find out after 162 games anyway ?


    In the first case, the probability is low...in the second, its much better.
    Unless in the first case, the team gets hot, or makes a big trade, or an injured star comes back and they go crazy, like the 2nd half 1983 Sox, or, in the second case, the leading hitter breaks his bone and the team's #1 needs Tommy John surgery. Since statistics do not KNOW when any of the multiple variables will or can occur, I think telling me that a team is done at 8-22, or in like flint at 22-8, are both foolish statements
    You must LOVE watching ESPN during the summer and pre-season football months when all the "experts" tell us how this team or that team is going to do and their odds, and who will win the SuperBowl...until the quarterback is broke like a twig in game 2. I put little stock in probabilities that have so many variables that are uncontrollable by math, and really controlled by fate.
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    Cream1953
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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by Cream1953 on Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:37 pm

    This is a fascinating discussion. I never knew the more of the 162 games you win makes a difference.
    Huh? who would have thought??  

    *******************************************************************************
    I gouged my eyes out a few posts ago. 

    ******************************************************************************

    So glad this has been a teachable moment for both of you knuckle draggers. geek
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    rmapasad
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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by rmapasad on Fri Mar 06, 2015 4:13 pm

    In the first case, the probability is low...in the second, its much better.
    Unless in the first case, the team gets hot, or makes a big trade, or an injured star comes back and they go crazy, like the 2nd half 1983 Sox, or, in the second case, the leading hitter breaks his bone and the team's #1 needs Tommy John surgery. Since statistics do not KNOW when any of the multiple variables will or can occur, I think telling me that a team is done at 8-22, or in like flint at 22-8, are both foolish statements
    You must LOVE watching ESPN during the summer and pre-season football months when all the "experts" tell us how this team or that team is going to do and their odds, and who will win the SuperBowl...until the quarterback is broke like a twig in game 2. I put little stock in probabilities that have so many variables that are uncontrollable by math, and really controlled by fate.
    If you're predicting in March where the Sox finish in 2015, it's a total crap shoot. On April 30th you have better evidence only IF there is an extremely good or bad start.  An 8-22 start means the odds are getting close to predicting that the sun will rise tomorrow since 94% of the teams who start April at sub-.400 don't make the playoffs.   A  22-8 start is meaningful, but far less certain as 55% of the .600+ starts make it.   Anything between a .600 and .400 April puts you back to pretty much the same spot you were in March.  That's all I am saying.

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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by Guest on Sat Mar 07, 2015 8:38 am

    And saying and saying and saying and saying.....

    On this board, Cream is the master of the one liner. You are the master of the term paper.

    As well as the captain of the Obvious
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    Harry Caray
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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by Harry Caray on Sat Mar 07, 2015 10:33 am

    Last I checked, there are 3 ways to make the Playoffs.
    I have other things to do rather than scoreboard watch in April with Hawk Harrelson.
    Unless the Sox pull a 1968 and SUCK in April, they will be in the race.

    frank bonifacic
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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by frank bonifacic on Sat Mar 07, 2015 5:33 pm

    Father of Stan wrote:Roger claims the 2007 Sox had the same record as the 2008.  What he leaves out is the 2008 Sox finished April in 1st.  And finished May in 1st.  And JUne in 1st.....
    So if the 2008 Sox were 15-3 in April and in 1st place:
    And the 2007 Sox were 15-3 in April but in 3rd place,that means their record wasn't the same??
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    Harry Caray
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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by Harry Caray on Sat Mar 07, 2015 9:07 pm

    Getting to the Playoffs is always a monumental chore for the White Sox, so obviously it is reassuring and comforting to Kark if the Sox lead from wire to wire.

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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by Guest on Sun Mar 08, 2015 7:34 am

    frank bonifacic wrote:
    Father of Stan wrote:Roger claims the 2007 Sox had the same record as the 2008.  What he leaves out is the 2008 Sox finished April in 1st.  And finished May in 1st.  And JUne in 1st.....
    So if the 2008 Sox were 15-3 in April and in 1st place:
    And the 2007 Sox were 15-3 in April but in 3rd place,that means their record wasn't the same??

    First, the 2008 Sox were 14-13, so you are lready asking a mislading question lawyer boy

    2ns, if they are in different places, then it means thei oponents have differents records..

    The White Sox don't play with themselves, so quit projectiing

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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by Guest on Sun Mar 08, 2015 7:47 am

    [quote="Harry Caray"]Getting to the Playoffs is always a monumental chore for the White Sox, so obviously it is reassuring and comforting to Kark if the Sox lead from wire to wire.[/quote

    Robert, how many times have I had to tell you that the reason I talk up the Sox in March is that March may be the only month I get to do so.

    You said it yourself, monumentual chore.

    Magic Number is 163, the faster it goes down, the better I feel

    Kinda sucks praying for a much needed 10 game winning streak that never happens. Remember KARKfest 2011?
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    Harry Caray
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    Re: Sale injured

    Post by Harry Caray on Sun Mar 08, 2015 8:37 am

    We have to BELIEVE!!!

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